THE IMPACTS OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ON THE FUTURE OF HEALTH & MEDICINE

THE IMPACTS OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ON THE FUTURE OF HEALTH & MEDICINE

Future Scenarios by Harish “The Singapore Futurist” Shah

SEPTEMBER 16, 2017 © Stratserv Consultancy

20 MAXWELL ROAD #09-17 SINGAPORE 069113

THE IMPACTS OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ON THE FUTURE OF

HEALTH & MEDICINE

Page 1 of 12 © Stratserv Consultancy

CONTENTS

1. Purpose 2

2. Technological Consideration: Artificial Intelligence (AI) 3

3. Technological Consideration: Brain Computer Interface (BCI) 4

4. Technological Consideration: Internet of Things (IoT) 5

5. Technological Consideration: Robotics 6

6. Principle of Convergence 7

7. Wearables, IoT & Telemedicine 7

8. Future Scenario 1: Prognosis Monitoring & Tracking 8

9. Future Scenario 2: Home-Based Patient Care 9

10. Future Scenario 3: Prosthetics 9

11. Future Scenario 4: Outbreaks 10

12. Future Scenario 5: Disaster Situations 10

13. Future Scenario 6: Pharmacy & Drugs 11

14. End Note 12

15. About Stratserv Consultancy & Contact Information 12


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1. PURPOSE

1.1 This document presents possible and probable Future Scenario of Health & Medicine realities

resulting from the impacts of emerging technologies, particularly through their likely

convergences, as can be foreseen at the time of its dissemination.

1.2 This document is expected to primarily be of interest to executives from the following sectors or

industries in their broad definitions:

Ambulatory Services

Hospital Management

Medical Devices

Medical Practice

Pharmaceuticals

Other Miscellaneous Health and Patient Related Services/Products

1.3 This document has been prepared for pro bono dissemination by Stratserv Consultancy’s Harish

“The Singapore Futurist” Shah to facilitate forward thinking, for executives and organisations, so

that they may capitalise on foreseeable opportunities while working to mitigate possible threats

that can anticipated, from the change or transformation that the impacts of technological

developments may or will likely result in.

1.4 Herein this document, key areas of technological developments are identified, highlighted and

addressed, that are likely to be of the most significant impact on the foreseeable future.

1.5 The intended focus herein this document is on the outcomes of emerging technologies

eventually being commonly embraced, upon the manifestation of their intended capacities or

purposes and then converging for synergies.

1.6 This document presents a possible future scenario from a generic Macro view that is non-

technical in nature, to best offer a meaningful illustration of the anticipated results of currently

ongoing efforts in developing new technologies of key interest and potential for “game

changing” impacts, to a broad community of executives.


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2. TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATION: ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI)

2.1 Definition - Artificial Intelligence or AI for short is the programmatic enabling of technology

whether in physical form, virtual form or in a combined form of both physical and virtual, to

mimic human behaviours, whether physical or cognitive, in response to situations and/or

requirements, to automatically perform or execute tasks, with autonomy, that would otherwise

require human intervention, attention, cognition and effort that is either mental, verbal or

physical.

2.2 Possibility - Anything that is routine, repetitive, replicative, imitative, can be charted or listed,

and therefore programmed as a pre-set, for the purpose of automation. Anything that is

sequential, patterned or quantitative/statistical in nature can thus be automated. This implies

that linear, standard, systematic or defined processes can be performed without human

attention or intervention, when the automation is autonomous.

2.3 Implication - Comparatively to automation historically, AI offers scope for automation that is

dynamic, because of the element of autonomy. A single machine, software or system can

perform a multitude or broad variety of tasks and functions, even simultaneously so, without

need for human effort or presence, with work being performed either as effectively and

efficiently, or more so, with greater speed of processing that technology allows for. Also,

anything that can be automated can therefore be performed autonomously, removing need for

human intervention.

2.4 Limitation - Non-linear, non-quantitative and non-routine tasks or functions are more difficult to

define, document and set parameters upon, therefore these form limits to programming,

therefore which also, automation. If something cannot be automated, it cannot be rendered

autonomous with AI. In such areas AI is irrelevant. Qualitative tasks and functions of cognition or

physical response therefore, remain a human prerogative.

2.5 Application - Examples of the broad areas for future application of AI in Healthcare and

Medicine include research, analysis, diagnostics, patient monitoring, triage, documentation and

information management.

2.6 Key Benefits - With a rising global population, greater longevity and ageing population issues

across many geographies, AI can help technology better complement human labour in providing

health & medical care, the necessity for which can be anticipated to increase continuously for a

prolonged period ahead. Technology also brings expedience to work processes, and therefore


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with autonomy rather than just automation, AI applications would benefit providers by

expediting processes of intervention that could save lives, especially in times of outbreaks of

new diseases, pandemics, disasters and emergencies. Long standing challenges in research to

develop cures or treatments or drugs for currently incurable diseases, may better be addressed

with the aid of AI enabled processing systems.

3. TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATION: BRAIN COMPUTER INTERFACE (BCI)

3.1 Definition - Brain Computer Interface or BCI for short is the mode of human-technological

interaction or the mode of input that is thought-based rather than voice-based or touch-based,

therefore bypassing the keyboard, the mouse, the touchscreen or microphone, to operate a

software application, a device, a machine or a system. It allows a user to directly instruct,

communicate or interact with technology with thought, through brain signals or brainwaves.

3.2 Possibility - BCI technology has already successfully been tested for intercontinental brain-to-

brain communication, which has created the possibility to redefine telecommunication. It also

stands to render redundant the need for non-tech persons to learn how to use technology or

applications, as simply by thought, they can instruct technology to perform tasks or functions

they want to see performed. This in turn is expected to make all technology easy to adapt to and

embrace, for any and every individual. At its optimum, BCI can be anticipated to allow persons

to communicate, relay or share their live visual and auditory experiences.

3.3 Implication - BCI is likely to disrupt all current or historical modes of input or interface with

technology, to become the primary interface option for use of technology, where the more

historical alternatives of keys, buttons and touchscreens may persist or survive as back-up

options in event that BCI malfunctions or fails.

3.4 Limitation - No limitation relevant to the purpose of this document, is currently known or

anticipated, pertaining to BCI technology.

3.5 Application - BCI is already being used at present in prosthetics which allow the handicapped or

amputee users to control their movements and functions with thoughts, though this is rare, with

present costs being the main reason for rarity. Other current uses include control of exoskeleton

suits and wheelchairs.


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3.6 Key Benefits - BCI promises to help mitigate issues of handicap and mobility in patients as well

as speech impairment or barriers, when communication is necessary between patient and

provider, in different circumstances.

4. TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATION: INTERNET OF THINGS (IOT)

4.1 Definition - Internet of Things or IoT for short is the inter-networking of physical objects, from

handheld personal devices, wearable objects from apparel to footwear, household or office

appliances, machines, vehicles, buildings along with their internal installations and more, to

allow for the ubiquitous flow as well as coordination of information, to support integration,

efficiency, automation and autonomy.

4.2 Possibility - Anything, as a first step, that a battery can be placed into or that can be connected

to a power source to be powered by electricity, can also be fitted with a processor to process

information, and it can be internet enabled, to relay, receive, transfer or transact information.

The next step, is where items that traditionally have not depended on electricity, can now be

powered by electricity, and net enabled, with a processor, to relay, receive, transfer or transact

information, such as walls, table, chairs, shoes, clothing, water bottles and so on. Both these

steps have already been achieved, even if in R&D stages. This digitization and connection, can

enable all sorts of objects, to serve meaningful purposes, to ubiquitously serve human needs

through the exchange and coordination of information.

4.3 Implication - With IoT the internet is no longer limited to cyber services but also physical

services, where integrated objects that are coordinated through connectivity, can guide each

other for ubiquitous and autonomous operations, bringing about the possibility of driverless cars

and other vehicles for example, that run efficiently without crashing into each other. Other

examples are that of robots being guided by objects all around them, to mimic human-like

behaviour and accuracy in executing tasks that have traditionally been either labour intensive or

downright human prerogatives. On the whole, IoT ensures that environments from workstations

to offices to homes to buildings to cities and to even nations, can function or operate in a

“SMART” manner.

4.4 Limitation - At the time when this document is being drafted, IoT remains largely in its

conceptual stage, even if to some limited extent, its manifestations in real world have been

deployed and utilised. Yet, a major limitation that can be identified, is that for IoT to serve its

optimal potential in any context, a large number of different objects need to be powered, to be


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able to receive, store, process and relay information. It is therefore dependent on energy, the

sources of which therefore must be efficient, readily available, sustainable, practical and low

cost. For the best possible employment of IoT ahead, energy, to power all the different objects

which will need to serve as purposeful parts of larger networked systems than themselves, will

either have to be free, or at nominal insignificant cost.

4.5 Application - It is difficult to set definitions, parameters or limitations on the list of possible applications of IoT in Health and Medicine. From SMART wards and operating theatres to SMART hospitals, to even SMART cities that overall enhance the effectiveness of Health and Medical care beyond the reach of professionals in the fields. The fundamental application of IoT however, will be to support the effective utilisation of other technologies in integration and convergence, through ubiquitous coordination, so that anything from tracking of patient parameters in daily life at home to the functioning of surgical robots functioning is rendered possible. The most important outcome of IoT’s manifestation, will be the enhancement of telemedicine.

4.6 Key Benefits - With the level of integration that IoT promises to bring about, health and medicine, both in reach as well as service, can be customised for every member of society, down to the individual. In other words, IoT can truly personalise health and medical services for each individual, addressing specific needs, without unrealistic demands on human labour to do so. It also offers an unprecedented degree of access to information to providers, available through multiple touch points surrounding each individual, apart from increasing the remote reach of medical professionals to patients.

5. TECHNOLOGICAL CONSIDERATION: ROBOTICS

5.1 Definition - Robotics is traditionally the use of machines, and now also software applications

such as Chatbots, to substitute human effort, to execute tasks or produce a desired output.

5.2 Possibility - With rapid advancements in AI and IoT, robotics is also seeing rapid advancement as

a direct result. Robots are becoming increasingly more autonomous and capable of multiple

functions to operate “intelligently” to serve human needs. Robots are expected to widely

replace human labour in the first world at least where higher qualitative application of the

intellect is not required, within the natural lifespan of the millennial generation.


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5.3 Implication - As the possibilities of autonomous robots increase with the enablement through AI

and IoT, health and medicine may also see reliance on robots for execution of tasks.

5.4 Limitation - The possibilities of robotics are limited to the extent of AI. Robotics can be used to

take over the quantifiable and definitive tasks of humans, but they cannot substitute human

labour where non-linear and non-quantitative cognitive efforts or intervention are required.

Robots therefore, cannot replace Doctors altogether, for example.

5.5 Application – Robots can be deployed or utilised for a wide variety of functions, including but

not limited to, sorting & dispensing of drugs/medication, movement of inventory, patient care,

assistance in surgery

5.6 Key Benefits - In the foreseeable future, where the health and medicine sectors are likely to be

overwhelmed by changing societal needs and shortage of human labour with appropriate

expertise, robots can be relied upon to free up human workers to focus on more intelligent and

important tasks by relieving them of mundane, routine, repetitive and tedious tasks.

6. PRINCIPLE OF CONVERGENCE

Technological developments or their impacts do not occur in silos. They occur in concurrence with other

developments, whether technologically or otherwise. At some point therefore, their effects or

possibilities converge to bring about an interdependence or cross-impacts. It is necessary to

acknowledge this principle because none of the technological considerations identified herein this

document, as can be seen in their possibilities and implications, will bring about standalone impacts. If

they are not interdependent on or convergent with each other, than with other technological

considerations not mentioned herein, both present and future.

7. WEARABLES, IOT & TELEMEDICINE

The most important convergence that we need to acknowledge and appreciate when attempting to

foresee the impacts of emerging technology upon health and medicine, is that of wearable devices or

technologies with IoT, to enhance remote medicine or remote medical activity otherwise known as

telemedicine. This convergence see the interconnectedness of wearable devices, with a myriad of other

devices via the IoT.


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The wearable devices in question can collect data via both active and passive inputs. It is the passive

element that is more important for the purpose of telemedicine, where sensors, monitoring features

and various other diagnostic features can be inbuilt into the wearable devices.

Examples of wearable devices include the Smart Watch, HMDs, Smart Clothing and Smart Shoes

amongst others.

The expansion of the reach of telemedicine via IoT, will be a central feature of the future of health and

medicine, as will be illustrated in the subsequent scenarios presented herein.

8. FUTURE SCENARIO 1: PROGNOSIS MONITORING & TRACKING

Alfred is out shopping with his family. As he moves about there are changes happening inside his body

of which he is yet unaware. His parameters are changing. He does not feel them. Devices on his wrist

and within his clothing are picking up, analysing and transmitting those changes though. In the internet

cloud somewhere these changes are analysed against his medical history, pre-existing conditions and

predispositions.

A possibility of oncoming heart attack or stroke surfaces and the nearest hospital is automatically

alerted. The nearest driverless ambulance is despatched. Other autonomous vehicles along the route

clear the path for the ambulance.

Alfred and his family members are alerted on their personal devices that he requires medical attention,

and they are advised that he should stay where he is. He is escorted by ambulatory robots into the

driverless ambulance and driven to the nearest hospital for intervention.

As Alfred is on his way to the hospital, Doctors are being updated on his condition and needs. By the

time Alfred arrives at the hospital, he has undergone automatic detailed scans inside the ambulance

that are transmitted live to the Doctors, who are able to determine a course of action.

The Doctors manage to save Alfred’s life.


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9. FUTURE SCENARIO 2: HOME-BASED PATIENT CARE

Ainsley is old, weak and physically immobile. She has a myriad of medical problems and is dependent on

a cocktail of drugs. She is however stable and does not need immediate intervention by the Doctors. She

does not need to be admitted to a nursing home or confined to the hospital ward.

An autonomous robot guided by other devices and sensors in Ainsley’s home attends to her needs, from

overseeing her hygiene issues, to preparation of her food, to her dietary needs as well as tastes. The

robot is her personal butler cum nurse that ensures her medications are administered according to

schedule. The robot also keeps her company and entertains her, apart from also ensuring her security;

no one is going to get into Ainsley’s home posing as a Doctor, to rob her.

When Ainsley needs to communicate with her robot carer, on days when she is unable to use her voice,

she can instruct the robot with her thought. The robot also functions as a surrogate for Doctors or

Nurses or Medical Social Workers who remotely check on Ainsley and her home environment regularly

without having to physically visit her, seeing through the robot’s “eyes” and hearing through its “ears”.

Ainsley’s condition and behaviour are constantly tracked and assessed by SMART appliances around her

in her home.

10. FUTURE SCENARIO 3: PROSTHETICS

Brian was a soldier who lost both his legs in a terrorist attack on his base. He plays football with his

prosthetic legs that both send signals to his brain and are controlled by it. He is able to do with the

prosthetic limbs what he was able to with his biological legs, with his thought.

He is also able to feel with his legs. Thanks to haptic features of the layers over his prosthetic legs, he

receives signals to the brain, of realistic sensations that mimic natural biological feelings of touch or

functions of skin.

Thanks to the sophisticated prosthetics, Brian is able to live life independently, looking after himself,

participating in normal activity as do otherwise able bodied individuals and maintain a job. He has no

accessibility issues in getting around.


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11. FUTURE SCENARIO 4: OUTBREAKS

A fresh outbreak of Ebola has been reported in an underdeveloped nation. Dr Chan is called upon to

help. He does not apply for a VISA, nor is he flown into the affected country. He connects with surrogate

humanoid robots on the ground, in the affected parts, remotely. Through his HMD device, and he

manoeuvres and controls the robots with his brain, through BCI. Through these robots he engages

patients, as if he was there on the ground, in person.

He is able to assume control of multiple such robots, in multiple locations, to skip from one patient to

another, to save time and expedite treatment or attention. At the same time, he avoids the risk of

infection himself.

12. FUTURE SCENARIO 5: DISASTER SITUATIONS

A building has collapsed and there are at least hundreds of people injured. MediHelp Hospital is the

closest to the incident site and receiving a large number of the injured, many in critical state. As patients

are being brought in, the SMART information system that is AI enabled is rapidly and simultaneously

assessing their parameters and injuries, concurrently ordering them according to priorities for attention.

Patients are also undergoing scans with the help of autonomous machines, to assess the nature and

extent of injuries.

Rather than attending to triage and administration, Doctors and Nurses guided by AI assistants in

referring to records, histories and primary assessments, are pursuing surgical and treatment courses on

each patient according to priority. Simultaneously, every patient is being tracked and monitored by a

central system. Drugs are administered autonomously, where needed, checked against records for

allergies or other medication the patient may be on. Much of the information is drawn from the

patients’ own personal devices.

Doctors from around the world are immediately able to assist MediHelp with the overwhelming patient

numbers by remotely assuming control of surrogate humanoid robots stored at the hospital to treat

patients or conduct emergency surgeries remotely.


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13. FUTURE SCENARIO 6: PHARMACY & DRUGS

Wendy is being discharged from hospital. A robot approaches her and stops right in front of her. It

dispenses a course of medications to her, reading out instructions to her. The make-up of each

medication has been checked against her history for allergies and side-effects. The system has also

autonomously checked that the drugs will affect her adversely because of other underlying conditions.

The dosage for each drug is customised to her specific body needs. She also has to consume no more

than a single capsule or pill at each of three times in a day, because the medicines have been

customised for her as such.

Given the tests, prognosis, diagnosis and analysis of the Doctors, in regards to Wendy’s case, an AI

enabled pharmaceutical system has custom designed each pill or capsule, and 3D-Printed the supply,

which has been automatically machine packaged. This is done with software and hardware leased on

licence by the hospital from the pharmaceutical company.

The SMART Packaging ensures that only Wendy is able to unpack the medication, or, a machine or

person authorised by her. It also ensures that Wendy cannot unpack more than a required dose at a

time, to prevent abuse or overdose, whether with intent or inadvertently. If the packaging is forced

open, the hospital will be alerted.

The prescriptions have been communicated to Wendy’s personal devices which from time to time will

remind her to take her medicines, to prevent her from missing a dose. In case Wendy loses the

medicines or leaves them at home when she is out or travelling, there are multiple ways in which she

can acquire substitutes. She can scan her wearable device at a public drug dispensary machine which

will custom 3D-Print a dosage for her. Otherwise, a dose can be drone delivered to her from the hospital

or another medical facility near her. If she is travelling, the necessary medicine can be 3D-Printed for her

at the airport or on the plane, provided they have the supplies of ingredients that make up the

prescribed medicines she is supposed to take. If the supply is not available, the nearest Doctor or

Chemist can be alerted, and requested to approach her to assist and advise.

The effect of each dose of medicine intake is monitored by Wendy’s wearable devices, or other

appliances around her, constantly transmitted to the hospital via the cloud. Her condition is also

monitored, the measure the effectiveness of the prescription. When Wendy no longer needs the

medicines, the SMART packaging will automatically destroy the pills or capsules.


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14. END NOTE

This document, while presenting, even if fascinating, a realistic view of the future, foreseeable based on

the current trajectory of technological developments, at the time of its preparation, is not and cannot be

exhaustive in describing the extent, nature and outcomes of the currently emerging technologies on the

future of health and medicine. For more in-depth views or extensive scenario development, you may

wish to contact Stratserv Consultancy.

The future scenarios presented herein, are expected to manifest within the natural lifespan of the

Millennial Generation, including the first of the generation. Taking the definition of the Millennial

Generation, amongst the varied that have been created, as the one describing persons born on the cusp

of the current millennium, between 1980 and 2000, with the first born of the grouping being 37 years of

age in the year 2017, and a natural lifespan for the generation liberally assumed to be 100, as a

possibility, though not necessarily on average, the timeline for manifestation of scenarios presented

herein can be capped at 63 years from 2017; deadline for complete manifestation being 2080. While this

timeline may seem long, technological development, like all other developments, occurs in parts, in

phases, in stages and gradually. This implies, that some parts or some semblance of the scenarios

presented herein may occur much sooner. The ideas of the possibilities presented herein may also

inspire reverse engineering, where businesses take what is presently feasible to produce results as

closely resembling the end scenario as possible in more near-term timeframes.

15. ABOUT STRATSERV CONSULTANCY & CONTACT INFORMATION

Stratserv Consultancy is a Singapore registered Management Consulting Practice founded and managed

by Singapore’s first local born Professional Futurist, Harish Shah. Areas of Consulting and Keynote

Presentations include, though are not limited to, Industry 4.0, HR 4.0, Organisational Future Proofing,

Marketing & Growth Strategy, Strategic Foresight, Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning.

Apart from being Singapore’s first local born Professional Futurist, Harish Shah started as one of the

youngest in the profession worldwide. His name has become synonymous with Futures Studies in Asia

and he is endearingly known globally as “The Millennial Futurist”, as “The Asian Futurist”, or, most

commonly, as “The Singapore Futurist”.

To contact Stratserv Consultancy, you may call Harish directly at +65 94510637 or email him at

[email protected]

You may visit Stratserv Consultancy’s website at www.stratservconsultancy.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.stratservconsultancy.com/

THE IMPACTS OF EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ON THE FUTURE OF HEALTH & MEDICINE

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