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Climate and Energy: Emerging Health Impacts on Pacific Islands
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DR. CHAD BRIGGS Strategy Director, GlobalInt LLC Research Associate, King’s College London 06 February 2013 Climate and Energy: Emerging Health Impacts on Pacific Islands
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Climate and Energy: Emerging Health Impacts on Pacific Islands. DR. CHAD BRIGGS Strategy Director, GlobalInt LLC Research Associate, King’s College London 06 February 2013. Work to Date. AU Minerva program 2010-2012 (lineage to DOE and public health) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Climate and Energy: Emerging Health Impacts on Pacific Islands
DR. CHAD BRIGGSStrategy Director, GlobalInt LLC
Research Associate, King’s College London
06 February 2013
Climate and Energy: Emerging Health Impacts on Pacific Islands
Work to Date
04/21/23
AU Minerva program 2010-2012 (lineage to DOE and public health)
New tools & methodologies for energy and environmental security risk scenarios
Focused regional assessments for Asia-Pacific
What aren’t we looking at that might hurt us?
Photo sources: USAF & AP
Why are we surprised?
We look in wrong places and watch the most obvious things.
We still think the world is flat.
Bad things happen to other people.
Japanese tsunami 2011
Example of vulnerability in ‘ advanced’ country
Problems of ‘most probable’ risk designs: Fukushima = 5.7m wave Tsunami = 15-30m+
Insularity and underestimation of risk (TEPCO) Ignored warnings Critical nodes exposed
Tipping Points and Scenarios
Tipping points and the law of complex failures
Most disasters are not the result of one ‘driver’ Improbable combinations
of probable factors E.g. Hurricane Sandy,
Fukushima, Three Mile Island
Focus on single drivers underestimates risk
“Things that have never happened before happen all the time.” –Carl Sagan
Linking key issues
Sector collapse tsunamis
Disasters versus Humanitarianism
Humanitarian assistance ≠ Disaster response (HA/DR)
Disaster response is the first 90 days After this, HA turned over
to other organizations Difficulty in knowing
where/when to hand over
‘ Phase 0’ planning ‘Horizon scanning’ for
risks Determining capabilities
and potential response
MPAT at PACOM Since 1996 coordinating
on HA/DR response Tempest Express and
Cobra Gold exercises Let other countries lead Include NGOs (UN-OCHA
and ICRC)
Epidemiology and scalability
• Methodological caution
• Scalability• ‘Open’ systems• Common, salient
metric• Ground-up
studies
April 21, 2023 C. Briggs 11Source: University of West England
Net Assessment
Net assessment refers to a combination of: Capabilities analysis Response assessment Vulnerability assessment
Just how extreme can environmental systems become?
What vulnerabilities are at risk?
What resources are available to respond? What are system resiliencies?
April 21, 2023
Dept Energy planning session, Dec 2008 (file photo)
Hawaiian example
Scenario of hurricane, tsunami, acidification mix Energy imports Hickam/Kaneohe Coral & freshwater
Impacts on DOD ops DR via Wheeler Field Weeks to restore
normal flight ops Impacts on Pearl
Harbor
Barber’s Point, Source: C Briggs
