THE HALIFAX/IPSOS GLOBAL SNAPSHOTRESULTS AND ANALYSIS OF “A GLOBAL @DVISORY WAVE SURVEY” CONDUCTED OCTOBER 2015

As global leaders converge on Halifax, Nova Scotia for the 7th Halifax International Security Forum, it is worth remembering that security and foreign policy, like all public policy, is about people. The Halifax/IPSOS Global Snapshot presents a view of what the global public thinks about challenges facing the world today and challenges widely held assumptions in the political debate. The assumptions examined here—that people are war weary and want to pull back; economic crisis leads to isolationism; Canada and America’s image in the world need restoring; and the world just can’t get along anymore—are fundamental to framing the public and private conversations taking place this weekend.

Every year since 2011, Halifax International Security Forum and IPSOS have cooperated to produce The Halifax/IPSOS Global Snapshot that gauges concerns and dangers as people around the world see them. Conducted over the past 5 years in 24 countries around the world, the annu-al survey provides a keen and comprehen-sive understanding of how the public sees potential global threats.

Everybody Fears that Third World War is on the Horizon, Except Ger-many and Japan

With news of extreme violence in Syria and Iraq, refugees flooding into Europe, Russia breaking international norms and rules and China testing them, it should not be sur-prising that six out of ten people say they could see another world conflict involving superpowers similar to the First and Sec-ond World Wars in the next 25 years. Even higher numbers of Canadians and Amer-icans agree. But, interestingly enough, in Germany and Japan, who lost the Second World War, the fewest number of people agree to this statement.

Perhaps a focus on crisis is not misplaced at the Halifax International Security Forum

CHALLENGING THE CONSENSUS

John K. Glenn, Policy Director, U.S. Global Leadership CoalitionDarrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public AffairsPeter Van Praagh, President of Halifax International Security Forum

01

80%

70%

60%

40%

50%

30%

20%

Aug 2010 May 2011 Sept 2012 Oct 2013 Oct 2014 Oct 2015

Nuclear / Chemical Attack in the World

Terrorist Attackin Your Country

Major Natural Disasterin Your Country

Major Health Epidemicin Your Country

Your Country EnteringArmed Conflict withAnother Country

44%

43%

55%

39%

31%

57%

54%

54%

35%

41%

59%

56%

57%

44%

43%

67%

56%

56%

46%

44%

57%

55%

54%

59%

51%

64%

69%

58%

52%

54%

GLOBAL THREAT PERCEPTION

How real do you feel the threat is of any of the following happening in the next twelve months?

THE HALIFAX/IPSOS GLOBAL SNAPSHOT

02

where policy makers meet whose job is to deal with crises. Yet is this really the world we confront? In fact, by many measures, conflict has actually been declining around the world in recent decades, the number of people living in extreme poverty around the world has fallen by half, and we are on the brink of an AIDS-free generation for the first time since it emerged.

Despite this good news, there is no question that people see the world as a more dangerous place than five years ago. Compared with 2010, people are more worried about a terrorist attack in their country, a nuclear or chemical attack in the world, their country entering an armed conflict, or a major health epidemic. Compared with 2010, people are more worried about a terrorist attack in their country, a nuclear or chemical attack in the world, their country entering an armed conflict, or a major health epidemic.  After the attacks in Paris last weekend, we have every reason to think threat perceptions could rise even further.

At Halifax International Security Forum, remedies for global concerns will be debated. In the con-versations about peace and security in East Asia, should it raise a warning flag that over 70% of Americans and Chinese – more than any other country – believe that under certain conditions, war is necessary to achieve justice? Perhaps even more remarkably, only 38% of Russians agree with that statement. Especially after the Metrojet disaster where over 200 Russians died over Egypt, this should be an important backdrop to understanding President Putin’s military options in the Middle East, and indeed, in Ukraine.

TOTAL

United States

China

Saudi Arabia

Great Britain

Australia

Canada

India

France

Belgium

Turkey

Poland

South Africa

Sweden

South Korea

Italy

Hungary

Russia

Germany

Mexico

Spain

Brazil

Japan

Argentina

CHANGEFROM 2014

n/c

▼ 2%

n/c

▼ 1%

▼ 4%

▲ 1%

▲ 1%

▼ 10%

▲ 4%

▲ 3%

▼ 9%

▼ 3%

▼ 2%

▼ 10%

▼ 4%

▲ 2%

▲ 5%

▲ 7%

▼ 4%

▲ 1%

▲ 8%

▼ 2%

▼ 5%

▲ 1%

13%

24%

22%

25%

15%

15%

14%

20%

13%

13%

17%

10%

12%

13%

6%

11%

9%

14%

8%

12%

8%

10%

5%

6%

35%

52%

50%

43%

52%

48%

48

41%

45%

43%

31%

35%

34%

31%

39%

30%

30%

24%

30%

23%

28%

22%

20%

15%

49%

76%

72%

67%

67%

63%

62%

61%

58%

56%

49%

46%

45%

44%

44%

41%

39%

38%

38%

35%

35%

33%

26%

21%

STRONGLY AGREE SOMEWHAT AGREE TOTAL AGREE

WAR NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE JUSTICE

Under some conditions war is necessary to obtain justice. To what extent do you agree or disagree?

80%

70%

60%

40%

50%

30%

20%

2011

STRONGLY POSITIVE / SOMEWHAT POSITIVE

10%

0%

90%

2012 2013 2014 2015

United StatesCanada

79% 81%

54%

65%

VIEWS OF CANADIAN AND US INFLUENCE ON WORLD AFFAIRS

Thinking about the next decade, would you say the following countries or organizations will have an overall positive or a negative influence on the world affairs?

THE HALIFAX/IPSOS GLOBAL SNAPSHOT

03

Restoring America and Canada’s image in the world? Or Not.

Calls for leadership on the world stage and promises to restore your country’s image in the world are common in election campaigns. After an election in Canada last month that saw calls for restoring Canada’s place in the world, newly elected Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada would again be a “strong and positive actor” on the world stage, particularly on climate change. In the United States, Republican candidates for president promise to “restore American global leadership,” blaming what they see as its absence for today’s dangerous world. However, there is little sign among world opinion that either country’s image in the world has suf-fered in recent years. Since 2011, Canada has consistently been seen by 80% of the countries in our survey as having a positive influence on the world. Negative views of the United States during the Bush Administration were widely observed, but US influence on world affairs has been seen as pos-itive since 2011, with an uptick this year to 65% in the countries surveyed.

Maybe the new government in Canada and the next government in the United States won’t be start-ing from such a bad place after all.

No Future for Isolationists.

What a difference a year can make. A lit-tle over a year ago, the isolationist U.S. Senator Rand Paul was called “the most interesting man in politics” on the cov-er of TIME Magazine, and many warned about the “war weary” publics after over a decade of conflict in Afghanistan and Iraq. Today, Senator Paul is in single dig-its in presidential polling, and few are calling for pulling back from the world.

While people around the world say they want to focus more at home than abroad, they also continue to strongly support helping other coun-tries after natural disasters and fam-ines, imposing economic sanctions against countries that behave badly, and assisting countries with less de-veloped economies.

Moreover, and particularly significant, seven years after President Bush left office widely criticized for trying to build democracy in the Muslim world, three-quarters of those in the coun-tries surveyed say their country should help with the growth of democracy in the world.

CHANGEFROM 2014

My country should help parts

of the world that are experi-

encing difficulties such as

natural disasters or famines.

My country should help

the growth of democracy

in the world.

My country should support

economic sanctions against

countries that behave badly

in the world, or treat their

own people badly.

My country has a

responsibility to be a

moral leader in the world and

set an example for other

countries to follow.

My country should assist

countries that have less

developed economies.

I support the international

coalition's airstrikes against

the Islamic State in Syria and

the Levant (ISIL).

▲ 3%

▲ 1%

▼ 1%

▲ 1%

▲ 1%

▲ 5%

79%

75%

74%

72%

64%

59%

GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT

To what extent do you agree or disagree with these statements?

THE HALIFAX/IPSOS GLOBAL SNAPSHOT

04

The strongest case for global isolationism seemed to be that, when the economy is bad, people look inward and are willing to do less abroad. Yet, comparing the views of those who think the economy is good vs. those who think the economy is bad shows differences of only 5-10% lower support among those who see the economy as bad. While policy makers at Halifax need to be aware of the impact of economics on the appetite for global engagement, perhaps they need not be handcuffed by it.

Can’t We All Just Get Along? Yes, Says Seoul.

The overriding question at Halifax In-ternational Security Forum is to ask from each other, what is in the realm of the possible in the effort to secure our democracies? Can we indeed co-operate on global threats? Globally, 63% of the countries surveyed said they had enough common values with the United States to cooperate on solv-ing many international problems. A re-sounding 81% of Canadians agree. Fewer around the world agreed they have enough common values to cooperate with China (50%) or Russia (47%). The stand outs were South Koreans, who led the poll in saying they have enough common values to cooperate with the United States, China and Russia. Given South Korea’s danger-ous neighborhood, this might be positive, if not indispensable for its security. It also highlights the urge to cooperate from around the world.

What Do People Want?

Commonly held assumptions, that people are war weary, that economic crisis leads to isolationism, that Canada and America’s image in the world need restoring, and that the world just can’t get along anymore don’t hold up under the scrutiny of global polling.

When people around the world say they are worried about war, taking a moment—or even the weekend —to pause and re-examine our political assumptions is important and necessary. Halifax International Security is proud to convene these important conversations.

*The Global @dvisor Wave Survey has been conducted by Ipsos and the Halifax International Security Forum since 2011. The survey this year was conducted between September 25th and October 9th 2015 in 24 countries round the world: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Can-ada, China, France, Great Britain, Germany, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States. 17,242 adults participated in the survey, whose samples were weighted to balance demographics and ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent country Census data. The survey has an estimated margin of error of 4.5%.

I support the inter-national

coalition’s airstrikes against

the Islamic State in

Syria and the Levant

(ISIL)

Assist countries that have

less developed economies

Has responsi-bility to be moral leader in world/set

in example

Support economic sanctions against

countries that

behave badly in world or

treat people badly

Help growth of democracy

in the world

Help parts of the world

experienc-ing diffi-

culties i.e. natural

disasters/-famines

55%

66%

57%

67%

72% 73%75%

75%

79%77%

80%

84%

ASSESS NATIONAL ECONOMY AS ‘GOOD’

ASSESS NATIONAL ECONOMY AS ‘BAD’

ENGAGEMENT BY ECONOMY

How would you describe the current ecomonic situation in your country? Is it very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad?

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