The GOES-R Proving Ground 2009 Spring Experiment at NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed
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Transcript of The GOES-R Proving Ground 2009 Spring Experiment at NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed
The GOES-R Proving Ground 2009 Spring Experiment at NOAA’s
Hazardous Weather Testbed
Christopher Siewert
OU-CIMMS / SPC
Russell Schneider
SPC
Eric Bruning
UMD / CICS
Steve Goodman
GOES-R Program Office
Jim Gurka
GOES-R Program Office
Bob Rabin
NSSL / UW-CIMSS
2009 NWA Annual Meeting – October 21, 2009
Forecaster Needs
• Incorporating new products into a forecaster’s routine difficult• Must provide information already not available to
forecaster through other means• Must replace something currently used that they
already have confidence in• Must have knowledge on product limitations• Must use regularly to gain comfort
GOES-R Proving Ground at the SPC• Integrate GOES-R products into real-time operational
testing prior to launch• Day-1 readiness
• Goals• Provide product developers with useful feedback on
product usefulness/performance through detailed interactions with forecasters and real-time testing
• Provide forecasters with product education and quality display
• Aid successful AWIPS-II integration• Bring a satellite perspective to the heart of radar country
EFP EWP
GOES-R PG
ExperimentalForecastProgram
ExperimentalWarningProgram
Prediction of hazardous weather
events from a few hours to
a week in advance
Detection and prediction of hazardous weather
events up to several hours
in advance
NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed
2009 Spring Experiment Activities
• In concert with EWP, EFP and VORTEX-II during April-June 2009 severe weather season
• 2-3 visitors per day (13 total this year)• Interact with EWP/EFP/VORTEX-II forecasters on a constant
basis• Provide local expertise on satellite products/techniques• Expose non-satellite community to satellite capabilities
• Hourly convective forecast activities during convectively active periods• Constant interaction with products in real-time forecast environment
• Daily morning post-mortem analysis of product performance
Initial Products & Examples
• Four GOES-R Proving Ground products available at the SPC for 2009 Spring Experiment• 15-minute Cloud-top Cooling (CTC) Rate (UW-CIMSS)
• Monitors cloud-top IR brightness temperature based on an operational cloud mask using a box-averaging method
• Convective Initiation (CI) Nowcast (UW-CIMSS)• Based on CTC product with more stringent requirements for cloud-top
microphysical properties
• 10-km Total Lighting Source Density (SPoRT/NSSL)• Re-sampled from three LMA networks (Huntsville, AL, Washington DC
and Norman, OK)
• 0-1 Hour Probability of Severe Hail (CIRA)*• Based on RUC objective analysis fields and cloud-top temperature**
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX TO THE BIG COUNTRY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262048Z - 262215Z
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH OVER TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSTM INITIATION INTO LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BUOYANCY APPEARS MAXIMIZED. BUT...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 22Z ALONG VARIOUS SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS W-CNTRL TX INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY. DESPITE MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A MESOLOW AROUND 20 N MWL WITH SEVERAL RATHER DIFFUSE
TROUGHS/BOUNDARIES REMAINING EVIDENT IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN TX. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED CU/TCU INCREASING FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. MODIFIED 12Z MAF RAOB SUGGESTS THIS AREA IS UNCAPPED TO MIXED-LAYER
PARCELS. GIVEN TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AOA 40 DEG F...DRY MICROBURSTS AND HAIL MAY OCCUR. FARTHER
EAST...MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS PERSIST ACROSS NERN TX...ALTHOUGH SHRINKING IN AREAL EXTENT AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MIX NWD. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE NEAR-TERM MAY REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY LARGER-SCALE DESCENT IN THE AFTERMATH OF MCS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. OPERATIONAL AND HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE VARY SUBSTANTIALLY WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY EVENING
ACROSS N-CNTRL TX. IF IT DOES OCCUR...THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
2145
2202
2215
2232
Expanding Cloud Edges
Thin Cirrus
Opportunities to Grow• Provide select products for real-time testing within SPC operations• Expanded product suite possibilities
• Leverage use of current GOES sounder TPW/LI/CAPE products• Improved CI/CTC• ‘Nearcast’ product• 8-km flash initiation and extent densities; pixel-level and cell trends• Ingest data from additional LMA networks• Synthetic satellite from NWP and MODIS imagery• Overshooting top/Enhanced-V detection
• Additional Experiments• Fire weather/heavy rain experiment (August/September)• Winter weather experiment (December/January)
• Expand integration with HWT forecast/warning programs• Increased interaction with operational community towards common goals
(ie – aviation wx, warn-on-forecast)