The Global HD Television Industry - OSTA Home...

Copyright @ 2004 DisplaySearchAll Worldwide Rights Reserved • Confidential

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Copyright @ 2005 DisplaySearchAll Worldwide Rights Reserved

Optical Storage Symposium – 2005Blue Laser Optical Storage – A Technology Waiting to

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The Global HD Television Industry

By David NaranjoVice President, DisplaySearch

Copyright @ 2004 DisplaySearchAll Worldwide Rights Reserved • Confidential 2

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Outline

� HDTV – The players

� Television Forecasts

� Summary





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HDTV Transition: The Players

Studios, Studios, Networks, Networks,

ProgrammersProgrammers

CECEManufacturersManufacturers

RetailersRetailers

GovernmentGovernment

ConsumersConsumers





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� � � � � � � � � ��

� ��

Noisy Analog Picture

� ��

Analog/DigitalAnalog/Digital

��

��

��

20082008

20102010

20102010

20152015

�� 2008~2010

2008~2010

��

� � ��

Digital Broadcasting





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Boston

17 stations

New York

19 stations

Philadelphia21 stations

Washington D.C

15 stations

Atlanta

12 stations

Chicago16 stations

Detroit8 stations

Dallas-Ft. Worth

16 stations

Los Angeles

San Francisco /Oakland / San Jose

22 stations

Over-the-air Broadcast Stations transmitting Digital contentas of 9/21/05

Houston

14 stations

Seattle

16 stations

Cleveland10 stations

Tampa14 stations

Minn/St. Paul

15 stations

Miami14 stations

Phoenix

16 stations

Denver

12 stations

Pittsburgh

7 stationsSacramento

10 stations

St. Louis7 stations

Orlando14 stations

Portland

5 stations

Baltimore9 stations

Indianapolis

12 stations

San Diego

6 stations

Hartford9 stations

Charlotte11 stations

Raleigh12 stations

Milwaukee11 stations

Cincinnati7 stations

Kansas City9 stations

Columbus16 stations

Salt Lake City13 stations

Grand Rapids9 stations

Oklahoma City10 stations

Harrisburg7 stations

Louisville9 stations

Honolulu

11 stations

Spokane8 stations

Madison8 stations

Jackson8 stations

Augusta4 stations

Las Vegas8 stations

Nashville/Knoxville19 stations

San Antonio

8 stations

Memphis8 stations

9 stationsNew Orleans West Palm

9 stations

Albuquerque

16 stations

Little Rock9 stations

Greenville/Spartan12 stations

Birmingham12 stations

Norfolk8 stations

Buffalo/Albany12 stations

Greensboro9 stations

20 stations

Jacksonville9 stationsAustin

8 stations

Tulsa11 stations

Des Moines5 stations

Tucson10 stations

Omaha6 stations

Charleston6 stations

Sioux Falls18 stations

Fargo8 stations

Boise5 stations

Billings5 stations

Cheyenne4 stations





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Content Has Arrived – 1080i is here!

U.S. networks are divided into two HDTV camps so far

Source: * HDTV.CNET.COM: CNET Editors' Guide to High-Definition Television (http://www.cnet.com/4520-7874_1-5119938-1.html)

All major U.S. networks are lining up to offer HDTV: Currently, over 70% of prime time in the U.S. is HD.

High-definition Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are both Full HD (1920 x 1080p), meaning the HD-TV market and consumers will benefit no matter which prevails

Next generation gaming platforms are designed for widescreen HDTVs, with XBox 360 supporting 1080i and PS3 supporting 1080p

1280 x 720p 1920 x 1080i





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FCC DTV Tuner Mandate – Jun. 9, 2005

New TVs must be able to tune over-the-air DTV signals according to the following schedule:

Screen Size 50% of All Units 100% of All Units36” and above July 1, 2004 July 1, 200525” to 35” July 1, 2005 March 1, 2006*13” to 24” N/A Dec. 31, 2006**TV interface/receiving devices N/A Dec. 31, 2006**

* Advanced from July 1, 2006 * ** Proposed instead of July 1, 2007

The end of analog only TV sales may only be a little over15 months away!





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DTV Proposal by House Telecommunications Subcommittee

(“Staff Draft”) - May 2005

� Analog broadcasts cease on Dec. 31, 2008� Manufacturers must label analog TVs and retailers must display signs

indicating� “To receive broadcast programming after 12/31/2008, this [analog]

TV must be attached to a digital STB or cable/satellite box.”� Cable operators must carry the primary video signal of digital

broadcasters� FCC must educate consumers about how to receive TV signals after the

turnoff� FCC must complete digital tuner mandate by end of 2006

� Most recently, Sen. McCain (R-Ariz.),proposed that broadcasters return the analog spectrum by Jan 1, 2007, 2 years ahead of original proposals!





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Quarterly HDTV Share by Region*

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Japan 17% 18% 21% 25% 23% 37% 38% 44%

NA 20% 20% 23% 25% 26% 24% 27% 31%

Europe 5% 5% 7% 10% 13% 18% 18% 20%

China 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 3% 3%

ROW 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%

Total 6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 11% 12% 13%

Q1 '04 Q2 '04 Q3 '04 Q4 '04 Q1 '05 Q2 '05 Q3 '05 Q4 '05

� Flat panels are driving HD adoption. As a result, Japan overtook North Americain quarterly HDTV penetration.

HD

TV S

hare

of T

Vs

Sol

d

*Q3’05 and Q4’05 are projections.





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HDTV Product Penetration in North America*

Sour

ce: T

he D

ispl

aySe

arch

Mon

itor,

Augu

st 8

, 200

5

0%10%20%30%40%50%

60%70%80%90%

100%

CRT

RPTV

PDP

LCD

Total TV

CRT 6% 8% 7% 7% 9% 5% 5% 5%

RPTV 99% 99% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

PDP 46% 42% 42% 41% 45% 47% 50% 54%

LCD 56% 61% 61% 62% 58% 64% 68% 74%

Total TV 20% 20% 23% 25% 26% 24% 27% 31%

Q1 '04 Q2 '04 Q3 '04 Q4 '04 Q1 '05 Q2 '05 Q3 '05 Q4 '05

� HDTV displays continue to increase penetration. In Q2 ’05 HD LCD penetration increased to 64%, HD Plasma penetration increased to 47%.

� In Q4 ’05, HDTV product is expected to account for 31% of all TV’s shipped into the NA market.

* Q3’05 and Q4’05 are projections.





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Retail Community has “Jumped Into” the Digital TV Business

National Accounts are showing Flat Panel + MicroDisplay assortments of 30-75+ models! PLUS weekly “circular” exposure.

Specialty" A/V accounts have been involved for years and are still a big

part of the business.

Wholesale clubs are offering increasing products in these categories as well.

Dealers shown are Dealers shown are ““representative samplesrepresentative samples””and are for illustrative purposes onlyand are for illustrative purposes only

Other major retail accounts are getting into the DTV

business.





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TV Circular Ad Share By Technology

� Over 65% of advertised TVs on Sept 18 were HD.

Best Buy / Circuit City / Sears / CompUSA / Conn’s

Sour

ce: T

he D

ispl

aySe

arch

Mon

itor,

Augu

st 8

, 200

5





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Outline



� Summary





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TV Market Forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Shipments 183.5 187.8 190.9 193.5 199.2 200.9

Growth 5% 2% 2% 1% 3% 1%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Revenues $75 $86 $96 $110 $122 $125

Growth 14% 11% 16% 10% 3%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

� Units projected to grow at a 2% CAGR, revenues 11%. Market drivers includeflat panel TV demand, lower prices for all TV technologies, national DTV policies, increased HD content, 1080p TVs, rising income levels in China and ROW, etc.

Mill

ions

of U

nits

$US

Bill

ions





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TV Market - Regional Shipments� North America units projected to grow at a 2% CAGR, revenues 10%.

Market drivers include flat panel TV demand, lower prices for all TV technologies, national DTV policies, increased HD content, and 1080p TVs.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ROW 38.9% 39.3% 39.0% 38.3% 37.9% 37.6%

China 19.4% 19.8% 19.7% 20.1% 20.3% 20.1%

Europe 19.6% 18.6% 18.9% 19.0% 19.3% 19.1%

North America 17.2% 17.4% 17.2% 17.1% 17.1% 17.5%

Japan 4.9% 4.9% 5.2% 5.4% 5.5% 5.7%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ROW 26.0% 22.8% 20.5% 19.5% 19.2% 19.0%

China 15.1% 16.0% 15.8% 16.0% 16.5% 17.1%

Europe 21.5% 23.7% 25.5% 26.3% 26.6% 26.6%

North America 28.8% 28.1% 27.8% 28.3% 28.5% 28.5%

Japan 8.7% 9.4% 10.3% 10.0% 9.2% 8.9%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Units Revenues





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HD Penetration Forecast by Region

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Japan 22% 38% 56% 68% 75% 80%

NA 22% 27% 37% 50% 61% 67%

Europe 8% 18% 29% 41% 50% 60%

China 1% 3% 6% 13% 21% 29%

ROW 1% 2% 3% 6% 9% 14%

Total 7% 11% 17% 25% 32% 39%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

� Flat panel growth to drive HD adoption worldwide. Japan TV shipments expectedto be majority HD n 2006, NA in 2007 and Europe in 2008. HDTV shipmentsexpected to rise at a 44% CAGR from 12.8M in 2004 to 78.0M units in 2009.





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Outline



� Summary





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Summary

�New technology (ex:1080p), Government mandates, broadcast HDTV content, Blue Laser platforms, new game platforms, lower prices, and consumer education will continue to help drive sales of digital television.

�Flat panel TVs are driving the global TV and HDTV market which is expected to enjoy 11% revenue CAGR to $125B in 2009. The flat panel TV share is expected to reach 45% on a unit basis and 82% on a revenue basis by the end of the forecast.

�Global HDTV shipments are expected to grow at a 44% CAGR to 78M units and a 39% share of the 2009 TV market!





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THANK YOU!www.displaysearch.com

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