THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL:

AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

FRAMEWORK FORA COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-

DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL DISASTERS

AND DISASTER RESILIENCE

1. SCOPEFROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS

TO A DISASTER TO

DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST

PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE

A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1)  people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.   

THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS

1. PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting)

2. COMMUNITIES3. RECURRING EVENTS (AKA

Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)

PEOPLE = INNOVATION

200 NATIONS AND 7+

BILLION PEOPLE

NORTH AMERICA

CARIBBEAN BASIN

SUB-SAHARAAFRICA

MEDITER-RANEAN

ISLAND NATIONS

ASIA

SOUTHAMERICA

EUROPE

INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE

SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T

THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM

• 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)

LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS

LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE

FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS

1. IGNORANCE2. APATHY3. DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES4. LACK OF POLITICAL WILL

THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)

• GOVERNMENT• DWELLINGS• SCHOOLS• HEALTH CARE

FACILITIES• BUSINESSES• INFRA-

STRUCTURE• ETC.

EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE

INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE

THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM

• FLOODS• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS• ETC.

RECURRING EARTHQUAKES

RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES

RECURRING FLOODS

RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES

RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

CURRENT KNOWLEDGE

IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,

STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS

HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES

FRAMEWORK 2:A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION

OF KNOWLEDGE FORTHE END GAME OF

DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY

POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• Anticipatory Preparedness• Adoption and Implementation of a Modern

Engineering Building Codes & Standards • Timely Early Warning and Evacuation• Timely Emergency Response (including

Emergency Medical Services)• Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction

YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES

AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

• FLOODS • SEVERE WIND

STORMS• EARTHQUAKES …

ETC

A DISASTER

CAUSESFAILURES IN POLICIES

FAILURES IN PRACTICES

COUNTER MEASURES

• BEST POLICIES• BEST PRACTICES

DISASTER RESILIENCE

EARTHQUAKES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)

• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)

• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• DATABASES • DISASTER

SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT

• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION

• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)

• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN

• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS

• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)

• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS

USE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A

BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE

• M7.1• 63 DEAD• COLLAPSE AND LOSS

OF FUNCTION OF KEY TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE

• $ 1 BILLION INSURED LOSS

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE)

• 10,000 DEAD• 20,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• NEAR TOTAL

DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

• LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

• POLITICAL CHAOS

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (MEXICO)

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (EGYPT)

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (ALGERIA)

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (TURKEY)

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (IRAN)

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (INDIA)

PROTECTION

USE FORECASTS OF STRONG GROUND MOTION TO ENACT CODES AND FIX

PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN THE COMMUNITY

PROTECTION BASED ON RESEARCH FROM THE JANUARY 2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE

• SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.

PROTECTION (BASED ON JULY 2013 YA’AN CHINA EARTHQUAKE)

• SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.

PROTECTIONBASED ON 1995 KOBE JAPAN

EARTHQUAKE

• SEISMIC STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL LIFELINE SYSTEMS.

PROTECTION

• URBAN PLANNING FACILITATES AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT-ION SITES

PROTECTION (SITE MODIFICATION Based on 1964 Niigata Earthquake)

• ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMED-IATION) CAN PREVENT/REDUCE LOSSES FROM LIQUEFACTION

EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE)

• Magnitude 7.1• 63 DEAD• FIRE IN MARINA

DISTRICT • WIDE SPREAD LOSS

OF POWER • 1 BILLION INSURED

LOSS

EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE)

• SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE HELPED SAVE 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.

SEARCH AND RESCUE (BASED ON 1988 SPITAK, ARMENIA EARTHQUAKE)

• INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM MORE THAN 50 CONTRIES FACILITATED SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS

SEARCH AND RESCUE: L’AQUILLA EARTHQUAKE APRIL 6, 2009

EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1971 SAN FERNANDO, CA EARTHQUAKE)

• LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING OF LOS ANGELES.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1999 KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE)

• MASS CARE PROVIDED A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND EARLY RECOVERY PERIODS.

EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1999 KOCAELI, TURKEY, EARTHQUAKE)

• A “TENT CITY” PROVIDED TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE EARLY RECOVERY PERIOD

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)

• 88,000 DEAD• 30,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• 25 MILLION

BUILDINGS DAMAGED• 45 MILLION PEOPLE

AFFECTED

EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY

• EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY (I.E., “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”)

INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE SPEEDS RECOVERY (2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE)

• OVER $ 1 BILLION DOLLARS WAS DONATED IN A FEW WEEKS TO HELP HAITIANS SPEED RESTORATION OF SERVICES TO NORMAL.

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)

• SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD DURING THE RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD.

RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)

• SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD DURING THE RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD.

THE END GAME CHALLENGEBEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES

INNOVATIVE ACTIONS:

CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES

WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,

AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE

PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS

BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL

CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY

AND STRATEGIC PLANNING

THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONENTIALLY AS ---

a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased,

b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and

c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.