The global CFRP market 2015 - cdn.pressebox.de · The global CFRP market 2015 . Dipl.-Ing. Michael...

The global CFRP market 2015

Dipl.-Ing. Michael Kühnel, Dipl.-Phys. Thomas Kraus

ICC, Stuttgart, September 21st 2015



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ce: W

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edia

Overview 1 The global Carbon

Fiber market 1.1 By manufacturer 1.2 By region 1.3 By application

2 The global Carbon Composites market 2.1 By matrix 2.2 By process 2.3 By region 2.4 By application

3 Trends and outlook

4. Conclusion and sources



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1 The global Carbon Fiber market


Carbon fiber plant of SGL Automotive Carbon Fibers (ACF) in Moses Lake in 2014 and 2015 (small image), source: BMW and SGL ACF

27 33

39 44 47

53 58

65

92

116

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2019* 2021*

Global demand of Carbon Fibers in thousand tonnes from 2009 to 2021 (* estimations)



Constant compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ca. 11-14%

𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛 = 𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡1 1 + 𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑛𝑛

𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑡𝑡1, 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛 =𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡1

1𝑛𝑛− 1

21,1

9,0 11,5 11,1 8,8 7,2 4,0 1,8 9,2

6,0

3,0 -2,4

4,0 1,7 3,0

6,2

17,4

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

45,0

Yearly CF capacity 2013 Growth 2014 Zoltek

1.1 By manufacturer Annual, theoretical CF capacity by manufacturer in thousand tons (2014). ∑ = 125 kt (2013: 105 kt +19%)



SGL ACF Moses Lake

Ramp-up 9 + 6 = 15 kt/a

Toray + Zoltek Fusion 44,5 kt/a

Toho closure Rockwood line

1.2 By region Annual, theoretical CF capacity by regions in thousand tons (2014).



USA & Mexico; 39.3; 31%

Japan; 25.0; 20%

China; 12.8; 10%

Taiwan; 8.8; 7%

Hungary; 8.1; 7%

South Korea; 8,1; 6%

Germany; 5.8; 5%

France; 5.2; 4%

Great Britain; 4.0; 3% RoW; 8.1; 7%

Total: 125,000 t

1.3 By application Global CF demand (PAN based) in thousand tons by application (2014)



Aerospace & Defence; 15.4; 29%

Automotive; 8.5; 16%

Wind Turbines; 7.4; 14%

Sport & Leisure, 6.4, 12%

Molding & Compound; 5.8;

11%

Pressure Vessels; 2.7; 5%

Civil Engineering; 2.3; 4%

Marine; 0.8; 2% Others; 3.7; 7%

Total: 53,000 t

= 42,4% of the theoretical CF

capacity (125 kt)

1.3 By application Global CF revenues in US$ million by application (2014)



Aerospace & Defence; 950.4;

48%


Sport & Leisure; 205.9; 10%


Molding & Compound; 142.6;

7%

Pressure Vessels; 79.2; 4%


Marine; 19.8; 1% Others; 118.8; 6%

Total: US$ 1.98 billion

2 The global Carbon Composites market


BMW i3 production plant Leipzig CFRP bodywork, source: BMW

41 51

59 66 72

83 91

101

140

175

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2016* 2019* 2021*

Global demand of CFRP in thousand tonnes from 2009 to 2021 (* estimations)



Constant compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ca. 10-15%

𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛 = 𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡1 1 + 𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑛𝑛

𝐶𝐶𝐴𝐴𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 𝑡𝑡1, 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛 =𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡𝑛𝑛𝐴𝐴 𝑡𝑡1

1𝑛𝑛− 1

2.1 By matrix CC revenues in US$ billion by matrix (2014)



Carbon; 2.24; 13%

Ceramic; 1.66; 10%

Metal; 1.24; 8%

Hybrid; 0.84; 5%

Thermoplastic; 2.55; 15%

Thermoset; 8.08; 49% Polymer;

10.63; 64%

Total: US$ 16.6 billion

2.2 By processes With CFRP production processes generated amounts in thousand tonnes (2014)



Prepreg layup process with /

without autoclave; 37.8; 45%

Pultrusion and winding; 21.6; 26%

Wet lamination & infusion

processes; 8.7; 11%

Press and injection processes; 8.3;

10%

Others; 6.6; 8% Total: 83,000 t

2.3 By region CC demand in thousand tonnes by region (2014)



North America; 40.0; 38%

Europe; 36.8; 35%

Asia & Pacific; 24.2; 23%

RoW; 4.2; 4% Total: 105,200 t



Rotor blade production at Aalborg plant, source: Siemens

2.4 By application CC demand in thousand tonnes by application (2014)







Civil Engneering; 5.0; 5%

Marine; 1.4; 1% Others; 18.5; 18% Total: 105,200 t

2.4 By application CC revenues in US$ billion by application (2014)








Marine; 0.1; 1% Others; 1.5; 9% Total: US$ 16.6 billion

Aerospace & Defence: 317 US$/kg Wind Turbines: 98 US$/kg Automotive: 87 US$/kg Sport & Leisure: 91 US$/kg

∅



Installation of a textile reinforced concrete bridge in Kempten, source: Wikipedia

Estimated development of CC demand in thousand tonnes



32.2

60.3

21.8

65.5

25.9

13.2 19.6

5.0 10.8

1.4 3.1

18.5

34.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

CC

dem

and

in 1

,000

t Aerospace & DefenceAutomotiveWind TurbinesSport & LeisureCivil EngineeringMarineOthers

Total 2021: 220,000 t

Total 2014: 105,200 t

4 Conclusion


A350 section 13/14 assembly in Nordenham,

Source: Premium AEROTEC

Core messages and forecast

• The golbal CF and CC market is and stays a promising business field with stable annual growth rates of 10-15% over several years.

• The pressure of competition for CC increases because of hybrid lightweight material mixes (use of CC only where necessary and useful).

• Cost savings in material and production costs will be essential for an increasing share of CC in future applications.

• But: The market behaviour is more inertial than expected positive as well as negative outliers not to be expected

• Stimulation by taxes and laws (e.g. in automotive and wind energy sector) can bring additional dynamics into the CF and CC market.

4 Conclusion


Dipl.-Ing. Michael Kühnel

Carbon Composites e.V. Alter Postweg 101 D-86159 Augsburg [email protected] Phone: +49 821 / 319874-1052 Mobile: +49 172 / 5848242

Thank you very much for your attention. Questions?

mailto:[email protected]

Literature

Sources


[1] Lucintel LLC, „Assessment of Global Carbon Fiber and Carbon Composites Market,“ 2015.

[2] Lucintel LLC, Growth Opportunities in Global Carbon Fibre Market: 2014-2019, Irving, USA, 2014.

[3] Acmite Market Intelligence e.K., Market Report: Global Carbon Fiber Composite Market, Ratingen, 2014.

[4] Toray Global, „Production Capacity Toray Group,“ 04 2015. [Online]. Available: http://www.toray.com/ir/management/man_010.html. [Zugriff am 31 08 2015].

[5] Toray Global, „Press Releases Toray Group,“ 09 03 2012. [Online]. Available: http://www.toray.com/news/crb/nr120309.html. [Zugriff am 31 08 2015].

[6] Mitsubishi Plastics, Inc., Mitsubishi Rayon Co., Ltd., „News Release: Enhancement of the Carbon Fiber Business,“ 07 01 2015. [Online]. Available: http://www.mpi.co.jp/english/news/201501070751.html. [Zugriff am 13 08 2015].

[7] Mitsubishi Rayon, „Mitsubishi Rayon Pressroom,“ 30 06 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.mrc.co.jp/english/pressroom/detail/pdf/20140630192937.pdf. [Zugriff am 28 07 2015].

[8] BMW Group, „BMW Group PresseClub Deutschland,“ 09 05 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/deutschland/pressDetail.html?title=bmw-group-und-sgl-group-verdreifachen-produktionskapazit%C3%A4t-im-karbonfaserwerk-moses-lake&outputChannelId=7&id=T0179312DE&left_menu_item=node__4088. [Zugriff am 07 07 2014].

[9] CompositesWorld, „CompositesWorld Industry News,“ Gardner Business Media, Inc., 20 12 2010. [Online]. Available: http://www.compositesworld.com/news/aksa-adds-second-carbon-fiber-production-line. [Zugriff am 28 07 2015].

[10] BMW Group, „BMW Group PressClub Deutschland,“ 09 01 2015. [Online]. Available: https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/deutschland/pressDetail.html?title=bmw-group-verkauft-2014-mehr-als-zwei-mio-fahrzeuge&outputChannelId=7&id=T0199942DE&left_menu_item=node__804. [Zugriff am 13 08 2015].

[11] A. Tauber, „Die Welt,“ 02 06 2014. [Online]. Available: http://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article128632098/Der-erste-Blick-in-BMWs-neue-Superfabrik.html. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].

[12] Mitsubishi Rayon Co., Ltd., „https://www.mrc.co.jp,“ 30 06 2014. [Online]. Available: https://www.mrc.co.jp/english/pressroom/detail/pdf/20140630192937.pdf. [Zugriff am 08 08 2014].

[13] Zoltek, „Zoltek Press Releases,“ 07 05 2015. [Online]. Available: http://zoltek.com/zoltek-de-mexico-to-expand/. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].

[14] Ford Motor Company, „Ford - News,“ 17 04 2015. [Online]. Available: https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2015/04/17/ford--dowaksa-to-jointly-develop-carbon-fiber-for-high-volume-au.html. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].

[15] Hexcel Corporation, „News Hexcel Corporation,“ 21 05 2015. [Online]. Available: http://www.hexcel.com/news/market-news/news-20150521. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].

[16] M·A·I Carbon — Die Spitzencluster-Initiative 2015, „MAI Carbon - Ziele des Clusters,“ [Online]. Available: http://www.mai-carbon.de/index.php/de/mai-carbon/ziele. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].

[17] D. E. Witten, „Composites Germany Composites-Markterhebung,“ Composites Germany, [Online]. Available: http://www.composites-germany.org/index.php/de/news/pressemitteilungen/239-ergebnis-der-aktuellen-composites-markterhebung-zum-ersten-halbjahr-2015-liegt-vor. [Zugriff am 06 09 2015].

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