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37
The German Power Market State of Affairs in 2019 Fabian Hein Frank Peter Patrick Graichen Contact: [email protected] Press contact: Christoph Podewils [email protected] 08.01.2020

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The German Power Market State of Affairs in 2019

Fabian Hein

Frank Peter

Patrick Graichen

Contact:

[email protected]

Press contact:

Christoph Podewils

[email protected]

08.01.2020

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Agora Energiewende | State of Affairs of the German Power Market in 2019

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Dear reader,

In 2019 surveys have shown that climate protection

and the energy transition is the number one concern.

Climate change becomes more visible every year.

Right at this moment, wildfires have wrought de-

struction across land the size of Ireland and Switzer-

land combined. The FridaysForFuture movement has

succeeded in raising public awareness for the scien-

tific findings and putting pressure on politics to act.

The political response however, has been tepid.

At the same time, the energy transition has moved

forward in many fields: Electricity generation from

coal has declined substantially leading to a fall of

50 million tonnes in CO2 emissions, a record low.

This decline was only exceeded in 2009 during the

great financial crisis. Meanwhile, generation from

renewables has increased considerably. As a result,

wind and solar provided more electricity than lignite

and hard coal combined. Unfortunately, such ad-

vanced cannot be said of the other sectors. Indeed,

emissions in the transport sector even increased in

2019 compared to 2018 levels. Furthermore, the lack

of newly installed onshore wind power plants will

lead to a decline in their growth rate in the coming

years meaning the increase in renewable energy

generation will slow down in the future.

This document contains the key findings, the press

release, the ten most important take-aways as well

as the graphics of the report. You can find the full re-

port in German free of charge on the website.

I wish you an interesting read!

Patrick Graichen

Director Agora Energiewende

Key Findings:

In 2019 greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell by over 50 million tonnes of CO2 thanks to a

sharp drop in lignite and hard coal generation which are now around 35% lower than in 1990.

Meanwhile, CO2 emissions from the buildings and transport sectors have risen due to an in-

crease in oil and gas consumption. The decline in CO2 emissions can be attributed to the higher

CO2 prices in the EU ETS, a significant increase in renewable generation and lower electricity

consumption.

Renewable energy broke a new record, reaching almost 43 percent of gross electricity con-

sumption. Unfortunately, the collapse in wind capacity expansions to less than one gigawatt

per year means the energy transition is entering the 2020s with a heavy burden. Whilst annual

growth in renewables has been consistently in the 15 terawatt hours in recent years, the lack of

available space and permits for wind capacity puts its continuation in jeopardy.

When it comes to the costs of renewable energy, the peak is in sight: the EEG levy will rise

again in 2020 to 6.77 cents per kilowatt hour, but is expected to fall in 2022 at the latest, thanks

to the lower costs of renewable energy. Older, more expensive power plants will then increas-

ingly fall out of the support scheme. In addition, from 2021, part of the revenue from the Fuel

Emission Trading Act (BEHG) will be used to reduce the EEG levy. As a result, the price of elec-

tricity is likely to fall slightly in the 2020s rather than rise.

Surveys have shown that climate protection and the energy transition are the number one con-

cern amongst German society in 2019, far ahead of immigration and pensions. This fact is not

Indeed, the climate package adopted by the German government in September is not sufficient

to achieve the 2030 climate protection targets. There is a considerable need for improvement,

particularly in the areas of transport, buildings and industry.

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Agora Energiewende | State of Affairs of the German Power Market in 2019

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Press release:

Emission certificate prices push greenhouse gas

emissions and coal-fired power generation to

record lows in 2019

The share of renewables in electricity consump-

tion rose to almost 43 per cent in 2019. How-

ever, progress in the power sector is offset by ri-

sing greenhouse gas emissions in the building

and transport sectors. Public awareness for the

importance of climate protection continues to

rise: since May 2019, it has consistently been the

most pressing political issue in the eyes of the

German population. These and other findings

are contained in a review of 2019 conducted by

Agora Energiewende.

Greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell by more

than 50 million tonnes in 2019; emissions now stand

goal of achieving a 40 per cent emissions reduction

by 2020 is thus within reach. The power sector is

solely responsible for this decline in emissions, as

significantly less electricity was generated using

hard coal and lignite, while generation from renewa-

bles rose to cover 42.6 per cent of electricity demand,

a nearly five percentage point increase over 2018.

These are just some of the findings presented in the

annual review released this week by the Berlin-

based energy think tank Agora Energiewende, titled

State of Affairs 201

first year in which generation from wind, hydro, so-

lar and biogas plants exceeded the total generation

from coal and nuclear.

Higher certificate prices in the EU emissions trading

system have been the major driver of lower power

sector emissions. In combination with increased

electricity production from renewables and lower

electricity consumption, higher emissions prices led

fossil-fuel power plants to significantly reduce their

electricity production during many hours in 2019, as

their generation was not price competitive. Power

generation by hard coal-fired power plants dropped

by 31 per cent, and that of lignite-fired power plants

by 22 per cent. Lower coal-based generation also

benefited natural gas-fired power plants, which re-

quire fewer emission certificates to generate power;

natural gas-based generation increased by 11 per

cent.

In sharp contrast to the progress made in the power

sector, emissions in the building and transport sec-

tors increased in 2019. These sectors consumed

more natural gas, heating oil, petrol and diesel than

in the previous year. Lower emissions in the power

sector were thus partially offset by higher emissions

in the building and transport sectors. In the transport

sector, higher emissions were driven first and fore-

most by an increasing share of heavy vehicles with

large combustion engines, such as SUVs.

The expansion of PV capacity and beneficial climatic

conditions for wind generation were the primary

factors encouraging a higher share of generation

says Dr. Patrick Graichen, Director of Agora Ener-

lapsed by more than 80 per cent over the last two

years and has thus nearly ground to a halt. Further-

more, as bids from industry to construct wind farms

did not fully exploit the capacity budget in 2019, we

will not see robust expansion figures for wind en-

ergy in the coming years either. It is now up to the

federal government to make policy adjustments so

that wind power capacity continues to expand.

Wind is the workhorse of the energy transition, and

without wind power, we cannot succeed in phasing

However, climate-protection progress in the power

sector stands is undermined by a general lack of fur-

ther ambition in energy and climate policy, espe-

cially in the heating and transport sectors.

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Agora Energiewende | State of Affairs of the German Power Market in 2019

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a danger that emissions will rise again in 2020 to

newables to offset the phase-out of nuclear power

up to 2022 and also generate enough electricity for

for ambitious action is shared by the German popu-

lation: according to public opinion surveys, since

problem facing the country, ahead of immigra-

tion/integration (2nd) and pensions (3rd).

The annual review also shows that the cost of sup-

porting renewable energy will soon fall. After twenty

years, old and expensive plants are no longer eligible

for subsidies under the Renewable Energy Act, but

can still offer electricity at low prices. New wind and

solar power plants, on the other hand, now produce

electricity more cheaply than all other types of

power and, with an increasing share of renewable

energy, are increasingly leading to falling wholesale

prices. In 2019, Germany and Luxembourg were the

European countries with the lowest wholesale elec-

tricity prices. Furthermore, upward and downward

price fluctuations on the wholesale market (includ-

ing negative electricity prices) were less frequent in

2019, and there w

sign that security of supply in Germany was con-

The significant reduction in electricity consumption

witnessed last year helped to bolster the share of de-

mand covered by renewable energy. Total demand in

2019 fell to 569 terawatt hours, the lowest level reg-

istered in the past 20 years even lower than that of

2009, during the economic crisis. Lower demand is

being driven by slower economic growth, lower con-

sumption by the energy-intensive basic materials

industry, and lower on-site consumption by con-

ventional power plants, which are being increasingly

supplanted by renewable energy systems.

In 2020, Agora Energiewende predicts that electric-

ity generation from nuclear energy will continue to

decline, as the Philippsburg 2 nuclear power plant

was decommissioned at the end of December 2019.

However, the situation for onshore wind energy is

unlikely to improve. As in 2019, the experts expect a

1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4

gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is

growing faster thanks to the commissioning of new

wind farms in second half of 2019 and first half of

2020. The 2020 trends that will be seen for lignite,

hard coal and natural gas thus for carbon emissions

remain uncertain, as they depend crucially on coal,

gas and CO2 prices, as well as on wind conditions.

Accordingly, no reliable predictions can be offered at

the present time. However, the prospect of compen-

sation for operators as part of the coal phase-out is

likely to prevent any coal-fired power plants from

being decommissioned in 2020.

The 2019 power market in ten points

1. Renewable energy: 2019 saw a new record high

in the generation of electricity from renewables

in Germany. Generation increased by

17.8 terawatt hours to cover 42.6 per cent of

gross electricity consumption. For the first time,

generation from renewables was thus roughly as

high as total generation from nuclear, lignite and

hard coal. The record high was primarily at-

tributable to very good meteorological condi-

tions for wind and solar power, rather renewable

capacity expansion. Onshore wind capacity

growth fell dramatically, and photovoltaic

growth is also below the level required to reach

2030 (namely, a

65 per cent share of renewables in gross elec-

tricity demand). The share of renewables in the

heating and transport sectors once again

trended sideways in 2019. The share of renewa-

ble energy in primary energy consumption grew

only slightly, reaching 14.7 per cent.

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Agora Energiewende | State of Affairs of the German Power Market in 2019

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2. Conventional generation: Hard coal utilisation

rates continued their downward trend, falling by

31 per cent in 2018 19. A higher CO2 price com-

pared to previous years, in combination with a

favorable price for natural gas, caused natural

gas to displace hard coal in the power-plant

merit order. The use of natural gas in power gen-

eration increased by 11 per cent in 2019. In con-

trast to previous years, lignite-based generation

also fell by more than 30 terawatt hours (22 per

cent) in 2019, reaching the lowest level wit-

nessed since 1990. Accordingly, lignite is in-

creasingly competing not only with renewable

energy but also with gas-fired power plants (due

to the higher costs that older lignite plants have

for flexible operation). While electricity genera-

tion from nuclear was constant in 2019, it de-

clined at the start of 2020, as the Philippsburg 2

nuclear power plant with a capacity of 1.4 giga-

watts went off the grid on 31 December 2019, in

accordance with the Nuclear Phase-out Act.

3. Energy and electricity consumption:

At 569 terawatt hours, electricity consumption

in 2019 fell to its lowest level in the past

20 years. 2019 consumption was even lower

than that of 2009, at the height of the economic

crisis. Primary energy consumption also rec-

orded a slight decline of one per cent. While the

reasons for such low electricity consumption

cannot be precisely identified, the likely drivers

are lacklustre industrial sector growth, abnor-

mally warm weather, and continuous efficiency

improvements.

4. Climate protection: Greenhouse gas emissions

fell by over 50 million tonnes, or six per cent

compared to the previous year, and now stand at

811 million tonnes CO2e/annum, almost 35 per cent

below their 1990 levels. This reduction is mainly

attributable to developments in the electricity

sector, as lignite and hard coal generation de-

clined significantly. In the transport and build-

ings sectors, on the other hand, demand for

diesel, natural gas, petrol and heating oil is on

the rise, such that emissions in these sectors

2020 climate protection target (minus 40 per

cent compared to 1990) still stands at 65 million

tonnes of CO2e. The main drivers of lower emis-

sions were the significant increase in CO2 prices

in the EU emissions trading scheme, a strong in-

crease in renewables generation and lower elec-

tricity consumption.

5. Electricity trading: The balance of trade in the

power sector extended the trend reversal that

started in 2018. The export surplus in 2019 was

just under 37 terawatt hours, a decline of around

14 terawatt hours compared to the previous

year. Low natural gas prices, which boosted gas-

fired generation in neighbouring countries, and

the rising cost of emission certificates, which

made coal-fired electricity generation in Ger-

many much more expensive, were the primary

drivers of this trend. Thus, the decline in exports

primarily pertained to emissions-intensive

coal-fired generation. The main consumer was

Austria (by a clear margin), followed by Luxem-

bourg and the Netherlands.

6. Electricity prices and flexibility: Wholesale

electricity prices fell from 44.70 to 37.60 euros

per megawatt hour in 2018 2019. There was an

increase in the number of hours with negative

prices due to high generation from renewables.

At the same time, price spikes have become less

common. This indicates the absence of a supply

shortage in the wholesale market. 2020 forward

prices stood at 47.70 euros per megawatt hour,

almost 8 per cent higher than that of the previ-

ous year. Household electricity prices in 2019

averaged 30.90 cents per kilowatt hour, an in-

crease of three per cent.

7. Renewable subsidies:

tender system for determining the level of gov-

ernment support given to renewable energy

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Agora Energiewende | State of Affairs of the German Power Market in 2019

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projects, subsidy levels diverged significantly by

energy type. The awarded subsidy level for PV

was roughly unchanged at 4.90 cents per kilo-

watt hour. By contrast, there was a shortage of

bidders for the awardance of onshore wind en-

ergy capacities, and submitted bids tended to

hug the maximum allowable subsidy level. There

were no auctions held for offshore wind energy.

The EEG levy was increased 0.35 euro cents and

now stands at 6.756 euro cents per kilowatt hour

in 2020. However, a trend reversal is in sight, as

the levy is likely to rise for the last time in 2021.

8. Grid expansion: Grid expansion continues to

make slow progress: of the 7,700 kilometres of

additional transmission lines that lawmakers

have resolved to construct, only 1,150 km have

been installed thus far. However, significant

progress was made in 2019 in the awardance of

permits: a further 1,000 km were approved and

can now be built. In addition, a number of cross-

border interconnectors are nearing completion,

which will enable additional electricity ex-

change with neighbours, thus facilitating the in-

tegration of renewables while also augmenting

security of supply.

9. Energy policy development: At the beginning of

2019, a commission tasked with assessing how

Germany can best phase out coal power pre-

visages a gradual phase-out of coal by 2038, but

the legal adoption of the recommendations is

still pending. In September 2019, a number of

measures relevant to energy policy were

adopted as part of the Climate Package, includ-

ing a climate protection law, which defines sec-

toral targets up to 2030; a national emissions

trading system with fixed carbon prices for the

transport and building sectors; and tax incen-

tives for building refurbishment.

10. 2020 Outlook: Electricity generation from lig-

nite and nuclear is expected to decline further,

as two lignite-fired power plants were shut

down and placed on reserve status in October

2019, and the Philippsburg 2 nuclear power

plant was decommissioned at the end of Decem-

ber 2019. The expansion of onshore wind energy

is likely to remain weak (expected increase: ap-

prox. 1 gigawatt), while PV capacity is expected

to expand by the amount witnessed in 2019

(4 gigawatts). New offshore wind farms repre-

senting about 1 gigawatt of generation are to be

commissioned at the end of 2019/beginning of

2020. Overall, however, renewables expansion is

not sufficiently rapid to meet

ation targets for 2030.

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Agora Energiewende | State of Affairs of the German Power Market in 2019

7

Graphics and deck of slides

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A review of major developments of 2019,

and an outlook for 2020

The Energy Transition

in the Power Sector:

State of Affairs in

2019

BERLIN, 6. JANUARY 2020

Patrick Graichen, Fabian Hein, Christoph

Podewils

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Key Findings

In 2019 greenhouse gas emissions in Germany fell by over

50 million tonnes of CO2 thanks to a sharp drop in lignite

and hard coal generation which are now around 35% lower

than in 1990.

Meanwhile, CO2 emissions from the buildings and transport

sectors have risen due to an increase in oil and gas

consumption. The decline in CO2 emissions can be attributed to

the higher CO2 prices in the EU ETS, a significant increase in

renewable generation and lower electricity consumption. The

rising share of SUVs in the transport sector is responsible for

rising emissions.

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Key Findings

Renewable energy broke a new record, reaching almost 43 percent of electricity consumption. Unfortunately, the collapse in wind capacity expansions to less than one gigawatt per year means the energy transition is entering the 2020s with a heavy burden.

Whilst annual growth in renewables has been consistently around15 terawatt hours in recent years, the lack of available space and permits for wind capacity puts its continuation in jeopardy. Decisive political action is now required if the 2030 renewable energy targets are to be achieved.

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Key Findings

When it comes to the costs of renewable energy, the peak is in sight: the EEG levy will rise again in 2020 to 6.77 cents per kilowatt hour, but is expected to fall in 2022 at the latest, thanks to the lower costs of renewable energy.

Older, more expensive power plants will then increasingly fall out of the support scheme. In addition, from 2021, part of the revenue from the Fuel Emission Trading Act (BEHG) will be used to reduce the EEG levy. As a result, the price of electricity is likely to fall slightly in the 2020s rather than rise.

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Key Findings

Surveys have shown that climate protection and the energy transition are the number one concern amongst German society in 2019, far ahead of immigration (2nd) and pensions (3rd). This fact is not reflected in the country’s climate politics.

For example, the climate package adopted by the German government in September is not sufficient to achieve the 2030 climate protection targets. There is a considerable need for improvement, particularly in the areas of transport, buildings and industry.

Concerns over Climate Protection and the Energy Transition

became the “most important topic” in 2019 for the first time.

The Top 5 political problems in Germany in 2018-2019

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (2019): Politbarometer (survey period 1/2018 – 12/2019, selected were the five most-mentioned answers out

of twelve possible answers).

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Jan. 18 Apr. 18 Jul. 18 Feb. 19 Mai. 19 Dez. 19

Bildung Renten

Nov. 18

Ausländer/Integration/Flüchtlinge Soziales Gefälle

Sep. 19

Umwelt/Klima/Energiewende

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Energy and

Electricity

Consumption in 2019

Primary energy consumption in 2019: Oil remains by far the most

important energy carrier. The significance of coal decreases, gas

and renewables become more prominent

Primary energy consumption in 2019 (values for 2018 in brackets)

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), *preliminary results

188 217

407 384

595 600

2016 2017*

Hard coal: 8,8%

(10,9%)

Lignite: 9,1% (11,3%)

Oil: 35,3% (33,9%)

Natural gas: 25,0% (23,6%)

Nuclear: 6,4%

(6,3%)

Renewables: 14,7% (13,8%)

Other incl, net flows to/from foreign countries: 0,7% (0,3%)

Primary energy consumption (PJ)Primary energy consumption (PJ)

1.805 1.886

11.310 10.929

13.115 12.815

2018 2019*

Renewables

Conventionals

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Primary energy consumption in Germany: Decreasing energy

consumption (-2.3% 2019 vs. 2018) due to weaker industry

growth and mild weather

Primary energy consumption from 1990 to 2019

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), *preliminary results

14.905 14.269 14.401 14.558 14.21713.262

12.815

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019*

PJ

Oil Lignite Hard coal Natural gas Nuclear Renewables Other incl, net flows from/into other countries

The consumption of diesel and gasoline increases in 2019 – as

well as the number of fuel-intensive SUVs.

The increase in heating oil is partly due to inventory effects

Sales of mineral oil products in Germany from 1990 to 2019

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), Ministry of economic affairs (2019), *preliminary results

31,3

30,328,8

23,4

19,6

18,3 18,0

21,8

26,2

28,9

28,5

32,1

37,038,0

31,8 34,8

27,9 25,4

21,0

16,2

15,6

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

199

0

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

200

1

20

02

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

20

08

20

09

2010

2011

20

12

2013

2014

2015

2016

20

17

2018

20

19*

Do

me

stic

sa

les

in m

illio

n to

nn

es

gasoline diesel fuel light heating oil

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A combination of gas and renewables made up for the

declining share of hard coal generation which is back to 2008

levels

Primary energy consumption of hard coal and gas from 1990 to 2019

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), *preliminary results

2.306

2.060 2.0211.808

1.714 1.729

1.134

2.293

2.7992.985

3.250 3.171

2.770

3.200

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019*

Pri

ma

ry e

ne

rgy c

on

sum

pti

on

na

tura

l ga

s a

nd

h

ard

co

al

in P

J

Hard coal Natural gas

Electricity consumption in 2019: Electricity consumption

reaches its lowest level since 2000. Primary drivers are the

weaker industry growth and a mild winter

Electricity generation, electricity consumption and physical cross-border flows from 2000 to 2019

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), *preliminary results

572

582

582

604

612

616

634

634

636

591

627

607

623

633

622

642

645

648

637

606

575

581

583

596

605

608

614

615

613

577 612

604

603

601

588

594

594

595

589

569

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2019*

Physic

al f

low

s t

o/fro

m f

ore

ign

countr

ies (

TW

h)

Gro

ss e

lectr

icity p

roduction a

nd g

ross

ele

ctr

icity c

onsum

ption (

TW

h)

Physical flows from foreign countries Physical flows to foreign countries Gross electricity production Gross electricity consumption

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121124

132

154

97 98 95

86 77

104110 111

103100

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019*

Deve

lopm

ent

in p

erc

enta

ge,

Index:

1990=

100%

Gross domestic product Primary energy consumption Gross power consumption

Energy efficiency in 2019: The decoupling of economic growth

and energy consumption as well as electricity consumption

continues slowly

GDP, primary energy consumption, primary energy consumption and gross electricity consumption 1990-2019 (index: 1990=100)

AG Energiebilanzen (2019),Ministry of economic affairs (2019), *preliminary results/own calculations

Target 2020:

-10% vs. 2008

Target 2020:

-20% vs. 2008

Power Generation in

2019

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Electricity mix in 2019: Renewables provide as much electricity

as coal and nuclear combined – each around 40% of the total

generation

Electricity mix in 2019 (values for 2018 in brackets)

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), *preliminary results, **including biological shares of household waste

188 217

407 384

595 600

2016 2017*

Lignite: 18,8% (22,8%)

Hard coal: 9,4% (13,0%)

Nuclear: 12,4% (11,9%)

Natural gas: 15,1% (12,9%)

Oil + other: 4,2% (4,0%)

Onshore wind: 16,8% (14,2%)

Offshore wind: 4,1% (3,1%)

Solar: 7,7% (7,2%)

Biomass (inc, waste): 8,3%

(8,0%)

Hydro: 3,1% (2,8%)

Renewables: 40,0% (35,3%)

Gross power production (TWh)Gross power production (TWh)

225 243

413 363

637606

2018 2019*

RenewablesConventionals

Overview of the development 2019 vs. 2018: coal generation

collapses – due to a rise in renewables and gas as well as a

reduction in consumption and exports

Changes in the electricity sector 2019 vs. 2018

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), preliminary results

17,8

-0,8

-31,6

-25,7

8,8

-12,1

-19,5

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Renewables Nuclear Lignite Hard coal Natural gas Cross border trade

flow balance

Consumption

TW

h

Page 16: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Electricity generation in 2019: A new record for renewables

while coal drops to an all time low since the 1970s

Development of the gross electricity generation from 1990 to 2019

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), *preliminary results

20 25 38 64105

189243

153 154170

163141

92

75171 143

148154 146

155114

141 147143

134 117

11857

36 4149

73 8162

91

550531

572

617 627 642606

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019*

TW

h

Renewables Nuclear Lignite Hard coal Gas Oil Other

Renewables in 2019

Page 17: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Renewable energy in 2019: Good wind conditions lead to a

record in electricity generation from renewables

Electricity generation from renewable energies,1990–2019

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), *preliminary results

20 22 25 20 21 19 192 3 15

34 50 512 10

28

38

72102

8

25

1

12

39

47

2025 38

64

105

189

243

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019*

TW

h

Hydro Biomass (incl, Waste) Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Solar

Renewable energy in 2019: renewables make up 42.6% of the

domestic gross consumption. In order to reach the 65% target

in 2030, a 2%-points increase is necessary.

Share of renewable energy of the gross electricity consumption from 2000 to 2019 as well as the target for 2030

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), *preliminary results

6,6

%

6,7

%

7,9

%

7,7

%

9,5

%

10,4

%

11,8

%

14,5

%

15,4

%

16,7

%

17,2

%

20,5

%

23,7

%

25,4

%

27,6

%

31,8

%

31,9

%

36,3

%

38,2

%

42,6

%

Target 2030:65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000 2005 2010 2015 2019* 2025 2030 2035

Share

of

the g

ross e

lectr

icity c

onsum

ption

(%)

RES-Share in gross power consumption Target coalition treaty 2018

2019: 42,6%

Page 18: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Renewable energy capacities in 2019: solar energy increases

by 4 gigawatts while onshore wind only increases by 700

megawatts.

BNetzA (2019), *own calculations/estimates based on BNetzA (2019, as of 11.11.2019),

medium-term-forecast of transmission grid operators (2019) Fachagentur Wind (2019)

Renewable capacity at the end of the years 2018 and 2019Renewable capacity as of January 1st, 2019:

118 Gigawatt

Expansion in 2019 (estimated):

Onshore Wind: 0.7 Gigawatt

Offshore Wind: 1.3 Gigawatt

Photovoltaic: 4 Gigawatt

Biomass: 0.2 Gigawatt

Renewable capacity as of December 31st, 2019

(estimated):

125 Gigawatt

4,8 4,88,1 8,3

45,2 49,2

52,453,4

6,47,7

118125

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2018 2019*

Insta

lled c

apacity (

GW

)

Offshore wind

Onshore wind

Solar

Biomass

Hydro

Other

Conventional Energy

in 2019

Page 19: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Conventional power generation in 2019: Drastic decline of hard

coal (-31%), and for the first time ever we also see a substantial

fall in lignite (-22%) and a record high for gas

Gross power production from conventional energy sources,1990–2019

AG Energiebilanzen (2019), *preliminary results

171143 148 154 146 155

114

153154

170 163141

92

75

141147

143 134

117

118

57

3641

49 73

89

62

91

3021

2429

29

28

26

530506

534553

522

454

363

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019*

TW

h

Lignite Nuclear Hard coal Gas Oil+Other

Conventional power capacity in 2019: The coal compromise

has yet to be implemented. The delay slows down the

decommissioning of coal power plants as well as the

construction of new gas plants

BNetzA (2019), *own calculations/estimates based on expansion and decommissioning

numbers released by the Bundesnetzagentur (2019, as of 11.11.2019)

Conventional capacity at the end of 2018 and 2019Conventional power capacity as of January 1st,

2019:

103 Gigawatt

Decommissioning in 2019:

Hard coal: 0.1 Gigawatt

Lignite: 0 Gigawatt (around 750 Megawatt

security reserve)

Oil and other: 0 Gigawatt

Nuclear: 1.4 Gigawatt

Expansion in 2019:

Gas: 0.3 Gigawatt

Conventional power capacity as of December

31st, 2019:

102 Gigawatt (estimated)

9,5 8,1

21,1 21,1

23,8 23,7

9,8 9,8

30,4 30,7

8,7 8,7

103,3 102,1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2018 2019*

Insta

lled c

apacity (

GW

) Oil + Other

Natural gas

Pumped hydro

Hard coal

Lignite

Nuclear

Page 20: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Greenhouse Gas

Emissions in 2019

Climate protection 2019: Greenhouse gas emissions have fallen

over 50 million tonnes this year, a decline of 35 percent

compared to 1990

Greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1990 – 2019 as well as 2020 and 2030 climate targets

Umweltbundesamt (2019), own calculations, *preliminary results, **own estimates

10

751

1.2

51

1.1

21

1.0

43

992

942

907

811

557

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

18

*

20

19

**

20

20

20

30

Mio

. t C

O2-E

quiv

ale

nts

Energy sector Industry Buildings Transport Agriculture Other

2019 vs. 1990: -35.2%

Target 2020: min. -40%

Target 2030: min. -55%

Page 21: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Climate protection in the electricity sector 2019: Decline in

coal generation pushes down the CO2-emissions to the lowest

level since 1990

CO2 emissions from electricity generation 1990 - 2019

Umweltbundesamt (2019), *preliminary results, **estimates Umweltbundesamt, ***own calculations

200 162 151 157116

118

10995 92

42

18

2832 22

31

366333

315304

223

764

611

559528

414

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

g C

O2/k

Wh

Mio

. t

Lignite Hard coal Gas Oil Waste Other Emission factor of the power mix

Electricity Trading

and Price

Developments in

Europe in 2019

Page 22: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Germany remains an electricity exporter, albeit at a lower level

than in previous years

Own calculations based on ENTSO-E (2019, as of 30.12.19); commercial electricity trade

flows are shown

Cross-border electricity trade in Germany 2012 to 2019Electricity exports fell significantly by 12

terawatt hours, while electricity imports

increased by a good five terawatt hours.

As a result, the export surplus was reduced by

17 terawatt hours.

Austria remains the largest net recipient of

German electricity, followed by Luxembourg

and the Netherlands.

The biggest net suppliers were Sweden and

the Switzerland.

The trade balances with Switzerland, the

Czech Republic and Denmark have reversed:

In 2019, Germany exported to the Czech

Republic and Denmark on balance, while

importing from Switzerland.

25,1 38,9 40,3 57,7 56,160,2

52,135,1

46,143,0 41,1 40,1

31,736,7

33,138,2

71,3

81,9 81,4

97,8

87,8

96,9

85,3

73,4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Tra

de (T

Wh)

Net export Import Export

Germany's electricity trade with its neighbours: The structure

of trade flows remains similar, but the dimensions are

changing

Comparison of electricity trade with neighboring countries in 2018 and 2019

Own calculations based on ENTSO-E (2019, as of 30.12.19); commercial electricity trade flows are shown

Import from Export to Balance Import from Export to Balance

Sweden 1,2 0,3 -0,9 1,3 0,6 -0,7

Austria 10,1 35,0 25,0 1,7 21,3 19,6

Switzerland 4,8 8,8 4,0 7,9 7,3 -0,6

Czech Rep. 6,5 4,9 -1,5 5,7 7,6 1,9

Denmark 5,6 5,2 -0,4 6,0 7,9 1,9

France 3,8 12,7 8,9 11,5 14,0 2,4

Netherlands 0,4 13,0 12,5 3,7 7,7 4,0

Poland 0,6 1,4 0,9 0,2 2,6 2,3

Luxembourg 0,2 3,8 3,7 0,2 4,4 4,2

Sum 33,1 85,3 52,1 38,2 73,4 35,1

TWh

2018 2019

Twh

Page 23: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Wholesale power prices: Germany has the lowest day ahead

prices in Europe

Comparison of wholesale power prices in selected European neighbouring countries

Own calculations based on ENTSO-E (2019), Mercato Elettrico (2019), Nordpool (2019), TGE (2019), OTE (2019), 30.12.19

Electricity and Fuel

Price Trends in

Germany in 2019

Page 24: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Commodity prices in 2019: Prices of coal, oil and gas

decrease, the price of CO2 certificates reached the highest

level seen in the past 10 years

Import prices for natural gas, hard coal, and oil, as well as CO2 certificate prices

Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (2019), Deutsche Emissionshandelsstelle (2019), own calculations, *preliminary

results

13,89,7 10,5

13,111,4

9,7 9,0 8,3 8,211,3

11,7

8,9

26,8

20,9 20,6

25,729,0 27,6

23,520,6

15,417,0

19,316,3

41,6

27,9

38,3

51,0

55,352,6

47,7

30,6

24,6

30,8

38,836,8

22,3 13,1 14,3

13,1

7,34,4

5,97,6

5,3 5,8

14,8

24,6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Cro

ss-b

ord

er

prices a

nd C

O2

e-c

ert

ificate

prices (

EU

R/M

Wh_th

or

EU

R/t

CO

2e)

Hard coal (EUR/MWh) Natural gas (EUR/MWh) Oil (EUR/MWh) CO2-Price (EUR/t CO2)

2018 electricity generation costs: Due to higher CO2 prices gas

plants become as profitable as hard coal and even old lignite

plants

Marginal costs for new natural-gas power plants and old power plants fired with lignite and hard coal

Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control (2019), Deutsche Emissionshandelsstelle (2019/2006), Öko-Institut (2017),

efficiency factor in brackets, *own calculations/preliminary data

32,0

20,8 22,220,7

13,6

10,011,9

13,911,0 11,6

22,7

34,9

54,6

36,139,2

45,0

35,6

28,7 28,1 27,925,7

33,9

42,8 43,9

53,0

39,8 39,8

48,0

51,748,2

41,9

37,5

27,9

30,8

37,7

36,0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Marg

inal

cost (E

UR

/MW

h_el)

Lignite (old, 33%) Hard coal (old, 39%) Natural gas (new, 58%)

Page 25: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Energy exchange electricity prices 2019: Price increase in

energy exchange due to higher CO2 prices. Yet, Germany still

shows one of the lowest wholesale prices in Europe

Rolling annual future prices 2007 to 2019

Own calculations based on EEX (2019, as of 30.12.19)

55,9

69,9

49,2 49,956,0

49,2

39,135,1

31,026,6

32,4

44,2 47,7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

Jan

Apr

Jul

Okt

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Pow

er

exchange p

rice €

/MW

h

Baseload Peakload Mean Baseload

Power future prices 2020-2024: In the future, electricity prices

of around 50 to 55 Euros per megawatt hour are expected

2019 future prices for power delivery in 2020–2024

EEX (2019, as of 30.12.19)

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

01

.01.2

019

16

.01.2

019

31

.01.2

019

15

.02.2

019

02

.03.2

019

17

.03.2

019

01

.04.2

019

16

.04.2

019

01

.05.2

019

16

.05.2

019

31

.05.2

019

15

.06.2

019

30

.06.2

019

15

.07.2

019

30

.07.2

019

14

.08.2

019

29

.08.2

019

13

.09.2

019

28

.09.2

019

13

.10.2

019

28

.10.2

019

12

.11.2

019

27

.11.2

019

12

.12.2

019

27

.12.2

019

Pow

er

exchange p

rice for

the r

espective

deliv

ery

period (

EU

R/M

Wh)

Trading day

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Page 26: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Electricity costs in 2020: Increase in procurement costs and

EEG levy makes electricity slightly more expensive

Electricity procurement costs and EEG levy from 2012 to 2019

EEX (2019), Bundesnetzagentur (2019), *Estimate: 70 percent one-year future (base), 30 percent one-year future (peak) (as of

30.12.19)

5,995,27

4,22 3,79 3,34 2,87 3,494,72 5,07

3,59 5,286,24

6,176,35 6,88

6,79

6,416,76

9,58

10,55 10,469,96 9,69 9,75

10,28

11,1311,82

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*

ct/

kW

h

Power procurement costs at power exchange EEG-levy

Electricity costs in 2020: Household electricity prices increase

by 2.6 percent

Household electricity prices 2007 bis 2020

Bundesnetzagentur (2019), *own estimates based on Netztransparenz (2019)

5,9 7,2 8,4 8,1 8,4 8,4 8,3 7,9 7,6 7,4 6,4 6,7 7,6 7,6

6,35,9

5,8 5,8 5,8 6,0 6,5 6,5 6,6 6,8 7,3 7,27,2 7,6

5,35,5

5,7 5,8 6,1 6,2 6,7 6,8 6,7 6,8 6,8 6,87,0 7,11,3

1,51,5 1,5 1,7 1,7

1,7 1,6 1,6 1,7 1,6 1,61,6 1,6

1,01,1

1,2 2,13,5 3,6

5,3 6,2 6,2 6,4 6,9 6,86,4 6,8

20,121,4

22,8 23,425,5 26,1

29,2 29,5 29,1 29,8 29,9 29,930,9 31,6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020*

ct/kW

h

Procurement, distribution, margin Grid charges Taxes Concession fee EEG levy KWKG levy Other levies

Page 27: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Negative Electricity

Prices and Power

Market Flexibility in

2019

Hourly wholesale electricity prices over the course of 2019:

High shares of renewable energy result in a significantly lower

wholesale power price on the day-ahead market

Hourly wholesale power prices (Day-ahead) for 2019

ENTSO-E (2019, as of 30.12.2019)

49,4 42,830,6

36,9 37,8 32,5 39,7 36,9 35,7 36,9 41,032,0

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

EU

R/M

Wh

Power price Monthly average power price

Page 28: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Negative electricity prices in 2019: High shares of renewables

increase the number of hours with negative prices and show

the potential for flexibility

Number of hours with negative electricity prices in 2019

ENTSO-E (2019, as of 30.12.2019)

56

-70,2

-222,0

64

-14,2

-100,0

64

-15,6

-65,0

126

-9,0

-79,9

97

-17,8

-130,1

146

-26,5

-83,1

134

-13,7

-76,0

211

-17,3

-90,01

Number of hours with negative prices Average negative price Euro/MWh Most negtive price Euro/MWh

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192019

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Cheapest and most expensive hours on wholesale markets in

2019: Very few situations with scarcity in the electricity market,

price peaks have decreased

Cheapest and most expensive hours on wholesale markets in 2019

ENTSO-E (2019, as of 30.12.2019)

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

EU

R/M

Wh

Most expensive 100 hours Most expensive 500 hours Base price Cheapest 500 hours Cheapest 100 hours

Page 29: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Renewable Auctions

and EEG levy costs

in 2019

Solar power auctions in 2019: After a peak in March the

auction results declined to the level of 2018

Average auction results for PV, 2016 - 2019

Bundesnetzagentur (2019)

7,41 7,256,90

6,58

5,66

4,91

4,334,59 4,69 4,80

6,59

5,47

4,904,67

5,275,66

5,40

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Mar-19 Jun-19 Oct-19 Apr-18 Nov-18 Apr-19 Nov-19

ct/

kW

h

Joint auctionsPV & Onshore Wind

Joint auctionsPV & Onshore Wind

Page 30: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Average results of wind power auctions 2017 to 2019:

Maximum values in the auction results reflect the lack of new

projects in the market

Average auction results for wind power, 2017 - 2019

Bundesnetzagentur (2019), * excluding grid connection costs (about 3 ct/kWh)

5,71

4,28

3,82

4,73

5,736,16 6,26 6,11 6,13 6,20 6,20 6,20 6,11

0,44

4,66

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Apr 17 Apr 18

Onshore Wind Offshore Wind

ct/

kW

h

Costs of promoting renewables: The peak is within sight,

costs for the remuneration of renewable energy will decline in

the beginning of the 2020s

Guaranteed remuneration for renewable power plant owners, 2010–2035

Own projection based on Öko-Institut (2019)

14,2

27,6

33,1 31,0

24,6

17,918%

30%

41%

49%

59%

68%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

RE

S-S

hare

of

consum

ption

Bill

. E

uro

2019

Solar

Offshore Wind

Onshore Wind

Biomass

Other

Solar (stock)

Offshore Wind (stock)

Onshore Wind (stock)

Biomass (stock)

Other (stock)

RES-Share in gross power consumption

Page 31: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Electricity costs: The sum of wholesale electricity price and

EEG levy should decline by 2022 at the latest

Electricity price (rolling annual future price for base load) and EEG levy, 2010 - 2035

Own projection based on Öko-Institut (2019)

6,0 5,6 6,0 5,44,4

3,7 3,2 2,7 3,24,6 4,9 5,1 5,2 5,4 5,5 5,5 5,6 5,6 5,7 5,7 5,8 5,8 5,9 5,9 6,0 6,0

2,33,9

3,95,6

6,66,5

6,6 7,06,8

6,46,7

7,0 6,3 6,1 5,9 5,7 5,2 4,8 4,4 4,0 3,5 2,8 2,2 1,9 1,8 1,7

8,3

9,59,8

11,1 10,910,2

9,8 9,710,1

11,011,5

12,011,5 11,5 11,4 11,2

10,810,4

10,09,7

9,38,6

8,1 7,8 7,8 7,7

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

12,5

ct/

kW

h (2019)

EEG levy

Power price

Sum power price +

levy

Grid Expansion in

2019

Page 32: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Despite few newly built grid lines in 2019, there was positive

news in the acceleration of approval procedures

Bundesnetzagentur (2019)

Status of grid expansion in the third quarter of 2019The Amendment of the Network Expansion

Acceleration Act (NABEG) took effect.

The central projects of the Federal

Requirements Plan Act (BBPlG) reached some

milestones (application conferences, planning

documents, etc.).

Progress has also been made in the expansion

of cross-border electricity trading. Notably, the

Nord-Link submarine cable to Norway will be

completed on schedule in 2020.

Despite weak construction progress, it’s been a

good year for transmission system expansion

in Germany.

In the future, due to the e-vehicle fleet and

prosumers, distribution networks will move up

on the agenda.

5.827

1.817

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

BBPlG EnLAG

km

not yet approved regional planning procedure plan approval procedure

aprroved / building stage realised

Notable Events in

2019

Page 33: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

January 2019: The smallest hourly share of renewable

generation in 2019 was 11 percent. Nevertheless, Germany still

exported electricity

Agora Energiewende (2019)

Net electricity generation and consumption and

emission factor (15-25 January)

Agora Energiewende (2019)

Trade flows and export balance (15-25

January)

Agora Energiewende (2019)

Net electricity generation and consumption

(15-25 January)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Em

issi

on

fact

or

(g C

O2/k

Wh

)

Ne

t p

ow

er

pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (G

W)

Conventional power plants SolarOnshore wind Offshore windHydro BiomassConsumption Emission factor

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Em

issi

on

fact

or

(g C

O2/k

Wh

)

Ne

t p

ow

er

pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (G

W)

Biomass Hydro Offshore windOnshore wind Solar NuclearLignite Hard coal Natural gasPumped hydro Other Consumption

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

18

GW

Imp

ort

Exp

ort

SE AT CH

CZ DK FR

NL PL LX

Export balance

Mid April 2019: Renewable share of generation rises to 80-90%

whilst Gas-CHP-plants keep running due to a lack of flexibility

Agora Energiewende (2019)

Net electricity generation and consumption and

emission factor (18-26 April)

Agora Energiewende (2019)

Trade flows and export balance (18-26 April)

Agora Energiewende (2019)

Net electricity generation and consumption and

power price (18-26 April)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Em

issi

on

fact

or

(CO

2g

/kW

h)

Ne

t p

ow

er

pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (G

W)

Biomass Hydro

Offshore wind Onshore wind

Solar Conventional power plants

Consumption Emission factor

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Eu

ro/M

Wh

Ne

t p

ow

er

pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (G

W)

Nuclear Lignite Hard coal

Natural gas Pumped hydro Other

Consumption Power price

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

18

GW

Imp

ort

Exp

ort

SE AT CH

CZ DK FR

NL PL LX

Export balance

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June 8th 2019: The combination of high renewable generation

and low consumption result in a negative price of minus 42

Euros per megawatt hour (daily average)

Agora Energiewende (2019)

Net electricity generation and consumption and

emission factor (05-12 June)

Agora Energiewende (2019)

Trade flows, wholesale power price and export

balance (05-12 June)

Agora Energiewende (2019)

Net electricity generation and consumption

(05-12 June)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Ne

t p

ow

er

pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (G

W)

Biomass HydroOffshore wind Onshore windSolar Conventional power plantsConsumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Ne

t p

ow

er

pro

du

ctio

n a

nd

co

nsu

mp

tio

n (G

W)

Nuclear LigniteHard coal Natural gasPumped hydro OtherConsumption

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

18

Eu

ro/M

Wh

GW

Imp

ort

Exp

ort

SE AT CHCZ DK FRNL PL LXExport balance Power price

Political

developments and

outlook 2020

Page 35: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Political developments and outlook in 2020 (1)

Coal exit: The Coal Commission presented its final report in January. In it, a compromise was struck

which provides for a gradual phase-out of coal by 2038, 40 billion euros in structural aid for the

regions affected as well as compensation for power plant operators. Despite having passed the

Structural Aid Act in Cabinet in August 2019 and the ongoing discussions taking place in the

Bundestag and Bundesrat, the legal implementation of the coal phase-out is still missing.

Climate Protection Act: The Bundestag passed the Climate Protection Act as part of its climate

package in November 2019. The act sets annual sectoral climate protection targets from 2020

onwards, obliges the responsible ministries to develop appropriate measures in their respective

areas and puts in place greenhouse gas neutrality by 2050 as a long-term goal.

CO2 pricing for buildings and transport: The Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG) was passed by

the Bundestag in November. It includes national emissions trading schemes for the building and

transport sectors starting in 2021. The CO2 price will be fixed until 2025 (no trading). According to

the results of the mediation committee in December, the price will start at 25 euro/tCO2 in 2021 and

increase to 55 euro/tCO2 by 2025.

Political developments and outlook in 2020 (2)

Renewable energy: Contradictory policies were included in the climate package: On the one hand, the

expansion targets for renewables are to be increased so that the goal of reaching a 65% share of total

generation by 2030 will be made possible. Whilst on the other hand, new regulation limiting the

distance of onshore wind turbines to a 1000-metre distance from residential buildings is planned to be

implemented. The amendment of the Renewable Energy Sources Act due in 2020 is therefore likely to

give rise to heated energy policy debates.

Combined heat and power/green district heating: An amendment to the Combined Heat and Power

Act has been planned for 2020 in order to promote the switch from coal-fired CHP plants to gas and

the conversion of district heating networks to green district heating.

Tax incentives for building retrofitting and energy standards: Tax incentives for house renovations

were put in place in December 2019 and are now in force - home owners can take advantage of the tax

credit instead of the KfW subsidy. The Building Energy Act presented by the Federal Ministry of

Economics has not yet been approved by the Federal Cabinet. In its current draft version, it does not

contain any tightening of building standards and therefore does not contribute to climate protection and

energy system transformation.

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Political developments and outlook in 2020 (3)

Climate and energy policy in Europe: In December, EU heads of state decided that Europe

should become climate neutral by 2050. The new EU Commission President von der Leyen

presented a "European Green Deal" in December, which is intended to steer Europe towards climate

protection and energy system transformation in the coming years. The EU’s climate target for 2030

is to be increased from minus 40 to minus 50-55 percent reduction compared to 1990. Between

March 2020 and mid-2021, the European Commission will also submit amendments to all relevant

EU directives and regulations to bring them into line with the higher targets.

International Climate Conference in Glasgow in November 2020: The Paris Agreement of 2015

stipulated a review and increase in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of the signatory

states every five years in order to achieve the 2-degree target. For the first time, such an increase in

commitments can be expected at the climate conference in Glasgow next year. The EU, as host, has

a crucial responsibility for the success of the conference – highlighting the importance of its own

target increase. The German Federal Government will play a decisive role in this as it will hold the

EU Council Presidency in the second half of 2020.

Thank you for your

attention.

Do you have questions or comments? Please contact me:

Agora Energiewende is a joint initiative of Stiftung

Mercator and the European Climate Foundation.

www.twitter.com/AgoraEW

Subscribe to our newsletter at

https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/Agora Energiewende

Anna-Louisa-Karsch-Str.2

10178 Berlin, Germany

T +49 (0)30 700 1435 - 000

F +49 (0)30 700 1435 - 129

https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/

[email protected]

Page 37: The German Power Market - Agora Energiewende › fileadmin2 › ... · 1 gigawatt increase in onshore wind energy and a 4 gigawatt increase in solar. Offshore wind capacity is growing

Agora Energiewende ist eine gemeinsame Initiative der Stiftung Mercator und der European Climate Foundation.

Agora Energiewende

Anna-Louisa-Karsch-Straße 2 | 10178 Berlin

P +49. (0) 30. 7001435-000

F +49. (0) 30. 7001435-129

www.agora-energiewende.de

[email protected]