The FY 2016 R&D Budget: Review and Context Matt Hourihan March 17, 2015 for the Science,...
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Transcript of The FY 2016 R&D Budget: Review and Context Matt Hourihan March 17, 2015 for the Science,...
The FY 2016 R&D Budget: Review and Context
Matt HourihanMarch 17, 2015for the Science, Engineering, and Technology Congressional Visits Day
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd
$0
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$60
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$100
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$140
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Total R&D
Defense
Nondefense
ARRA Total
ARRA Defense
ARRA Nondefense
Trends in Federal R&D, FY 1977-2016in billions of constant FY 2015 dollars
Source: AAAS analyses of historical budget and appropriations data. Pre-1994 figures are NSF obligations data from the Federal Funds survey. FY 2016 is the President's request. R&D includes conduct and facilities. © 2015 AAAS
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Federal R&D in the Budget and the EconomyOutlays as share of total, 1962 - 2016
R&D as a Share of the Federal Budget (Left Scale) R&D as a Share of GDP (Right Scale)
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2016. FY 2016 is the President's request. © 2015 AAAS
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
R&D as a Share of GDP by Funder
Total Federal Industry Other
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Research as a Share of GDP by Funder
Total Research Federal Research Industry Research Other
Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. © 2015 AAAS
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars
Actual Base Budget Authority
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015
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$1,000
$1,050
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Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars
Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015
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$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars
Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
Limits on Discretionary Spending Since FY 2010billions of constant 2015 dollars
Actual Base Budget Authority BCA: Original Baseline
BCA: Sequester Baseline Current Law
President's FY 2016 Budget
Based on past budget resolutions, the Budget Control Act, and subsequent legislation. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY16 budget request. © AAAS 2015
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
TOTAL
Homeland Security
DOD S&T
DOE Defense
NASA
Environ Protection Agency
National Institutes of Health
DOE Science
National Science Foundation
Veterans Affairs
DOD Other
US Geological Survey
Agriculture
DOE Energy Programs
Transportation
NIST
NOAA
Current Estimates of R&D in the FY16 Budgetpercent change from FY15, constant dollars
Based on AAAS analyses of OMB, OSTP and agency budget data. The above adjusts for inflation, expected at 1.6 percent. AAAS | Feb. 6, 2015
Agency Notes NSF: Total Budget: +5.2%
Highest relative changes: social sciences, engineering; other disciplines and STEM Education programs also boosted
Defense S&T flat; 8.3% cut to basic research
Energy: Large increases, again, for renewable and energy efficiency technology offices, ARPA-E
DOE Office of Science: +5.4% EFRCs, Hubs, advanced
computing; Fusion research down
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$2,000
DOE Office of Science BudgetsBudget Authority in millions of constant FY 2015 dollars
Adv Sci Comp Basic Energy Sci
Bio Env Res Fusion Energy
High-Energy Phys Nuclear Phys
Source: Historical DOE budget data and FY16 request.© 2015 AAAS
Agency Notes (Cont.) NIH: $1 billion program increase (+3.3%)
Priorities: Alzheimer's research, translational science
New priorities: Antibiotic Resistance, Precision Medicine
Success rate: 19.3%
Familiar contours for NASA: gains for technology office, Earth Science, little else
USDA: extramural research activities, intramural facilities
Climate research @ USGS, NOAA prioritized
A trim for DHS science & technology
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Figure 1: NIH Budget(Constant 2015 dollars in billions)
ARRA Funding General Med SciCancer NIAIDHeart Lung Blood NIDDKMental Health All Other
Source: AAAS data and agency budget documents. Excludes Ebola-related fundng in FY 2015. © 2015 AAAS
Looking ahead…
Size and composition of the discretionary budget? Can R&D stay ahead of the curve?
Deficits have fallen, but big-picture fiscal challenges remain largely unchanged Debt limit, entitlement growth Reconciliation strategy?
Thanks!
202-326-6607http
://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program