1

Ron MedfordSenior Associate Administrator, Vehicle Safety

The Future of Vehicle Safety

Presented at theUniversity of Minnesota CTS Winter Luncheon 2008

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Top 10 Leading Causes of Death in U.S.2002 data, by Age GroupTop 10 Leading Causes of Death in U.S.2002 data, by Age Group

3

Motor Vehicle Traffic Crashes 2006

42,642 fatalities1.42 fatalities per 100million VMT2,575,000 injures

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Economic Cost of Crashes

$230 billion total• $32 billion medical cost• $51 billion for impaired

driving• $17.5 billion for failure to use

belts ('03)

Source: The Economic Impact of Motor Vehicle Crashes, 2000

5

Vehicle Miles Traveled1966 – 2006 (in Billions)

Source: FHWA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

6

Persons Killed and Rate

Source: FARS and FHWA

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Per

son

s K

illed

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

Fata

litie

s /

100M

VM

T

Persons Killed Fatalities / 100M VMT

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Crash Year

Cra

shes

/Inju

ries/

100M

VM

TMotor Vehicle Crash & Injury RatesPolice Reported

Source: 2004 Annual Assessment

Crashes / 100M VMT

Injuries / 100M VMT

8

Crashes of all Severities2005 GES

Opposite Direction

2%

Animal4%

Backing2%

Lane Change9%

Rear-End28%

Pedalcyclist1%

Pedestrian1%

Off-Roadway23%

Crossing Paths25%

Other4%

9

Passenger Car / Light Truck Fatalities2006 FARS

Impact with Fixed Object

Other/Unknown Impact with Another

MV

Rear Impact with Another MV

Side Impact with Another MV

Frontal Impact with Another MV

Impact with Non-fixed Object

Noncollision 32%13%

13%

1%

18%

18%

5%

Impact with Fixed Object

Rear Impact with Another MV

Side Impact with Another MV

Frontal Impact with Another MV

37%

5%

Impact with Non-fixed Objec

Noncollision

1%Other/Unknown

Impact with Another MV

23%

13%

12%9%

Passenger Car Light Truck

10

Haddon Matrix

Human EnvironmentVehicle

Pre

Pre --

Eve n

tEv

e nt

Pos t

Pos t

-- Ev e

ntEv

e nt E

v ent

Eve n

t

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INJURY MITIGATION MEDICAL ATTENTION

HUMAN / PRE - EVENT

SEVERITY REDUCTIONPREVENTION

Volvo forward collision warning

The Crash Timeline - Prevention

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The Crash Timeline – Severity Reduction

PREVENTION INJURY MITIGATION

VEHICLE / EVENT

SEVERITY REDUCTION MEDICAL ATTENTION

-500-1000

13

The Crash Timeline – Injury Mitigation

PREVENTION INJURY MITIGATIONSEVERITY REDUCTION MEDICAL ATTENTION

VEHICLE / EVENT200msec.0

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The Crash Timeline – Medical Attention

PREVENTION INJURY MITIGATIONSEVERITY REDUCTION MEDICAL ATTENTION

ENVIROMENT / POST EVENT

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Lives Savedby Belts and Combined Safety Technologies - 1960-2002

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00

Live

s Sa

ved

Year Source: NHTSA

Lives SavedBy All Other Safety Features

Lives Saved By Safety Belts Alone

Total Lives Saved328,551

16

14 14

21

3742

45 4649

5962

66 67 68 68 69 69 6771 73 75

79 80 82 81

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

9019

83

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Year

Perc

enta

ge U

seSafety Belt Use Rates in US

1% Increase in Belt Use Saves 268 Lives in US

Click It Or

Ticket

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Effectiveness of Safety Belts

Source: “Fatality Reduction by Safety Belts For Front-Seat Occupants of Cars And Light Trucks,” Charles J. Kahane, Ph.D, December 2000, DOT HS 809 199

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Car 3 Pt. Belts

Light Trucks 3 Pt. Belts

Frontal Impact Near Side Far SideRollover (Primary) Rear Impacts & Others

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NCAP Revisions

Improved crashworthiness ratingsIntroduction of crash avoidance and advanced technologies

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Side Impact

Updated FMVSS No. 214• Provide greater head and chest protection• We estimate that this final rule will prevent at least

266 fatalities and 352 serious injuries a year when fully implemented throughout the light vehicle fleet

Pole testNew dummies

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Crash Types2005 GES and FARS

These 4 crash types = 85% of all crashes

• Run-Off-Road (23%)• Rear-End (28%)• Lane Change (9%)• Crossing Path (25%)

And ~75% of all fatalities

• Run-Off-Road (41%)• Rear-End (5%)• Lane Change (4%)• Crossing Path (14%)

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Crash Causal Factors

Driver Related Driver Related FactorsFactors90%90%

Vehicle Related 2%

Vehicle Related Vehicle Related 2%2%

RoadSurface8%

RoadRoadSurfaceSurface8%8%

Source: Syntheses Report: Examination of Target Vehicular Crashes and Potential ITS Countermeasures, Wassim Najm, et al, DOT HS 808 263, 1995, Section 3

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Evolution of Vehicle Electronics

Crash Avoidance and Injury Mitigation

Information

The Future

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Crash PreventionWhat can Advanced Technologies do to Help Prevent Crashes?

Augment driver performance• Adaptive cruise control • Brake assist• Drowsy-driver monitoring• Night Vision• Warnings of specific types of impending crash; such as rear-end,

lane/road departure, intersection, etc.

Take control of the vehicle• Intervene when driver action would be insufficient to prevent a

crash (ESC and Rollover prevention)• Alcohol detection

Augment other vehicle systems• DSRP - vehicle to vehicle communications

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Rollover 2006 Data

R/Os account for (pass vehicles): • ~3% of the crashes• ~35% of occupant fatalities

10,698 killed• 8,826 in single vehicle crashes

Percent occupant fatalities result from R/O crashes

• 59% SUV occupants deaths from R/O• 47% pickup occupant deaths from R/O

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Rollover Activities

Ejection Mitigation

Safety Belts Electronic Stability Control

Roof Strength

NCAP Rollover Prevention

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Our Preliminary Analysis on ESC Benefits

Effectiveness of ESCEffectiveness of ESCState Data (5 states) Percent Reduction for Single

Vehicle Crashes

Vehicle Type1997 1997 –– 2002 Single Vehicle Crashes2002 Single Vehicle Crashes

Passenger CarsPassenger CarsSUVSUV’’ss

35%35%67%67%

1997 1997 –– 2003 Fatal Single Vehicle Crashes2003 Fatal Single Vehicle Crashes

Passenger CarsPassenger CarsSUVSUV’’ss

30%30%63%63%

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Longer TermNew ITS Safety Initiatives

Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety Systems (IVBSS)Intersection Crash Prevention Systems (CICAS)Vehicle-Infrastructure Integration (VII)Next generation 911

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Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety Systems

Integrates into the same platform• Rear-end collision avoidance• Road departure crash prevention• Lane change and merge systems

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Cooperative Intersection Collision Avoidance Systems (CICAS)

Every year at intersections:• 9,100 Fatalities• 1,500,000 Injuries • 3,000,000 Crashes

To develop and demonstrate cooperative intersection collision avoidance systems To assess the value and acceptance of collision avoidance systems that utilize cooperative communication

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Vehicle Infrastructure Integration (VII)

Facilitates implementation of FCC allocation of frequency at 5.9 GHz for safety communicationCreating an “enabling communication infrastructure”Emphasis on safety applicationsPotential to reduce congestion

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Crash MitigationWhat can Advanced Technologies do to Help Reduce Injuries?

Take control of the vehicle to mitigate the severity of a crash

• Automatic braking• Automatic steering• Belt pre-tensioners• Close windows

Prepare restraint systems for a pending crash• Improves the performance of restraint systems in

preventing or mitigating the severity of injuries

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Post CrashWhat can Advanced Technologies do to Help Improve Outcomes?

Automatic Collision Notification• Calls for help

Advanced ACN• Assesses crash severity• Transmits urgency information

(Severity of crash which is related to possible injuries)

Improves crash occupant triageEvent Data Recorders (EDR)

Cover removed

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Advanced Technology

What level of reliability is needed to:• Convince consumers that they’ll work and be worth

the money• Convince manufacturers to put them in their

vehicles

How much of the safety technical function can be taken away from consumers without causing false reliance?

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NHTSA’s Role

Continue to encourage the refinement and integration of advanced technologies through ITSEvaluate technology effectivenessHelp ensure minimum performanceEducate consumersEncourage the market (e.g. NCAP) where appropriateRegulate (e.g. ESC) where appropriate

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Alcohol-Related Fatalities & Rate (per 100M VMT) 1982 – 2006

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 060

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

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Drivers (Veh & MC) Involved In Fatal Crashes with Positive BACs, 2006

0100200300400500600700800900

0

0.05 0.

1

0.15 0.

2

0.25 0.

3

0.35 0.

4

0.45

+

BAC (g/dl)

Num

ber

of D

rive

rs

Median, 2003.16

Legal Limit In 50 States

Source: 2006 Annual AssessmentSource: 2006 Annual Assessment

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Development of Advanced Alcohol Sensing Technology

Cooperative research and development effort• NHTSA and Automotive Coalition for Traffic Safety (ACTS)

5-Year effort• NHTSA contributing up to $1M per year with ACTS matching

or exceeding NHTSA’s contribution

Concept• In-vehicle capability to detect impairment before vehicle can be

operated

Significant technical and public acceptance challenge

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Potential Technical Areas of Promise

Volpe conducted a technology reviewPotential technologies include:

• Breath Alcohol Ignition Interlock Device (BAIID)

• Tissue Spectroscopy• Transdermal Detectors• Ethanol Vapor Detectors• Occular Measures

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SAAB Alchokey & P.A.S. III Alcohol Screening System

Is an adaptation of an anti-theft systemIncludes a mouthpiece at the end of the key fob, in which a driver blows If alcohol is detected, it will not allow the engine to start (i.e., interlock)

Passive system that “sniffs”ambient airApplications include testing for alcohol in exhaled breath or vehicles/other enclosed spaces, or over open containers

SAAB Alchokey

P.A.S. III Alcohol Screening System

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Vehicle technologies that can detect distraction/impairment are being developedWhat is the appropriate action if the vehicle detects an impaired driver during operation?August 2007 – Nissan announced a concept car featuring multiple preventative features

Intermediate Steps with Advanced Technology

Alcohol Odor Sensors

Facial Recognition System

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Heavy Truck Fatalities2006 FARS

NoncollisionImpact w ith Non-

fixed Object

Frontal Impact w ith Another MV,

Side Impact w ith Another MV

Rear Impact w ith Another MV

Impact w ith Fixed Object

Fatalities:805 - Truck Occupants3,766 - Other Vehicle Occupants424 - Non-occupants

10%11%

4%

15%

12%

46%

1%Other/Unknown

Impact with Another MV

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Heavy Truck ESC/RSC

Rulemaking expected in late ’08NHTSA is currently researching benefits of

• Yaw stability systems• Roll stability systems• Yaw + roll stability systems

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Heavy Truck Tires

Upgrade to FMVSS 119 in ’08• Upgrade endurance test• Add new high speed test

Agency initiated truck tire testing in 2003 in support of this upgrade

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Heavy Truck Tractor Stopping Distance

Upgrade to FMVSS 121 in ’08• Substantial reductions in stopping distance are

achievable with current technology

Estimate 20 to 30 percent reduction in stopping distance

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Motorcycle Riders Killed and RateIn 2006, per registered vehicle, the fatality rate for motorcycle riders was 5.5 times higher than the fatality rate for passenger vehicle occupants

Source: NCSA

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1975 1977 19791981 19831985 1987 19891991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 20032005

Pers

ons

Kille

d

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Fata

litie

s/10

0K R

egis

tere

d

Persons KilledFatalities/100K Registered

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Motorcycle Rider Fatalitiesby Age Group and Year

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

50+40-4930-3920-29<20

Source: 2004 Annual Assessment

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DOT Motorcycle Action Plan

New national standards for entry-level rider trainingCurb counterfeit helmet labelingMotorcycle-specific road improvementsProvide training to law enforcement officers on their role in reducing motorcycle crashesPSA featuring Secretary Peters discussing safe riding techniques

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Thank you!