The Future of Roads - Sustainable Built Environment ... · (CISBE) Symposium. Changing Landscape....

The Future of RoadsCollaborating for Industry Solutions in the Built Environment (CISBE) Symposium

Changing Landscape

The Opportunities

The Future

Outline

Research Direction

Images Credit: Adobe Stock

Conventional approaches Emerging approaches

Supply and capacity Demand management and resilience

Focus on mobility Accessibility

Street as road for vehicles Shared between all modes

Physical dimensions Social dimensions

Vehicle-oriented People-oriented and customer-focused

Motorised transport Hierarchy of modes

Travel as a derived demand Travel also a valued activity

Minimisation of travel times Reliability of travel times

Petrol taxes/vehicle registration fees User-pay models

Private car ownership Car-sharing and ride-sharing

The changing landscape of urban mobility

Source: Low Carbon Mobility for Future Cities: Principles and Applications, Forthcoming in 2017 (Dia, H. ed.)

3

4

Car passenger-kilometres per capita

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

12000

12500

13000

13500

Canberra Perth Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Sydney

Sources: BITRE 2015 Yearbook; Peak Car Use in Australian Cities (Newman and Kenworthy, 2015); chartingtransport.com

5

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Private transport Public transport Population

Melbourne: Growth in private and public transport passenger kilometres since 2003

59%

22%

7%

Sources: BITRE 2015 Yearbook; chartingtransport.com

POSSIBLE CAUSES?• Growth of public transport

• Growth of a culture of urbanism

• Rise in fuel prices

• Reversal of urban sprawl

• Ageing populations of cities

• Hitting the Marchetti wall

Is it a structural change?

6

2 . 54 . 75 . 80Image Credit: Adobe Stock

Just 100 cities account for 30% of the world’s economyLondon and New York, together, represent 40% of the global market capitalisationIn 2025, 600 cities are projected to generate 58% of the global GDP

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THE OPPORTUNITIES

No ordinary disruption

Disruptive Mobility

Self-Driving technologies

Sharing Economy

Internet of Things

BlockchainMobile and Cloud Computing

Vehicle Electrification


Future of vehicles?• Autonomous• Shared• On-demand• Electric

The Future of RoadsNovember 20179

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future”– Yogi Berra

Looking for evidence of future change

– Trends– Technologies– Business models

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiUuLnGtrjNAhUBl5QKHWPMDMkQjRwIBw&url=http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/WesternAnimation/TheJetsons&psig=AFQjCNG6qQdA2g3OtheHCxNGiIpJvauX4g&ust=1466574675530761

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiw6ruVubjNAhUBjZQKHdRkDXMQjRwIBw&url=http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/hoverboards-drones-back-future-ii-predictions-2015-that-have-come-true-1481644&bvm=bv.124817099,d.dGo&psig=AFQjCNE4XNPtbSXaizjO_dk07Qw46lY-XA&ust=1466575369595878


“I think there’s going to be more change in the next five to ten years than there’s been in the last 50”

– General Motors CEO Mary Barra

“It is clear we are on the cusp of a revolution in mobility, from carsharing to autonomous driving to the customer experience”

– Ford CEO Mark Fields


Why electric? Why not?

Performance Price

Zero tailpipe emissions- Increasingly stringent emissions

targets- Improves air quality- Reduces carbon emissions

Range & anxiety

Running costs - Cheaper to fuel (potentially zero)- Cheaper to maintain (Tesla Model S

has 18 moving parts, compared to around 2,000 with petrol/diesel engine)

Lack of charginginfrastructure

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjlnOHDjubQAhVDo5QKHfTrC1UQjRwIBw&url=http://www.caranddriver.com/tesla/model-s&psig=AFQjCNFBCdQdI-oivKSAuQj-u8oG0Etbdw&ust=1481338616589250


• Auto manufacturers are moving to electric vehicles:– “General Motors believes in an all-electric future”

Mark Reuss, General Motors– GM releasing 20 new electric vehicles by 2030– Tens of billions of investment in EV manufacturing

• Countries and cities outlining plans to ban Internal Combustion Engines (ICE):– Norway 2025– Paris 2030– UK & France 2040


• Cruise Automation (General Motors)


• Driven over 3.5 million autonomous miles

• Invested US$1.1 billion between 2009 & 2015

• Disengagements of system– 1 every 2,000 km in 2015– 1 every 8,000 km in 2016

• ‘Early Rider’ program now testing with real people in Phoenix


Spot the carNew York, 5th Avenue 1900

Spot the horseNew York, 5th Avenue 1913

https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwj79fyzrNHMAhXLjpQKHXUtAuUQjRwIBw&url=https://www.pinterest.com/pin/501588477221000742/&psig=AFQjCNHoO5l1Qq-XtPkpehjSWujUdawqxg&ust=1463032899664762


• Hyperloop– Intercity transport

• Autonomous passenger drones (electric flying cars)– UberElevate– Dubai to launch shuttle service using

Volocopter– Daimler investing in Volocopter– Airbus has released their own

concept vehicle• Autonomy in Infrastructure

Construction?

The Future of Roads - Sustainable Built Environment ... · (CISBE) Symposium. Changing Landscape....

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