The future of European agriculture (2030)

Jan Staman

Rathenau Instituut

Short term perspectives

• Shift in demand and supply; enhancement of production and a better price

• Creating added value in the food chain in the EU; new and old members

Impact

• Sustainability, landscape, nature and moral issues over and again under pressure?

• Intensive animal husbandry at risk?• Paradigm shifts in CAP • New perspectives on WTO and the developing

countries?

Impact 2

• Shifts in politics and administration; the rise of agriculture and the fall of agricultural departments?

• European food valleys? • Lessons learned in economic crises • Lessons learned in bio invasions and disease

outbreaks. Make Asia healthy.

2030; Science, technology, agriculture and society

• The rise of new energy companies; The end of oil and Shell

• One pandemia and the end of the global market.• Converging technology NBIC: human enhancement,

genomics/synthetic biology, synthetic food, human machine interaction, aging

• Space technology, robotology, ambient intelligence, screening society; to control the environment and ‘to support’ citizens.

• The citizen; sources for the good life, the self and our hope; enlightenment revisited?

• Pluralism

2030; science, technology, agriculture and society

• Techno food; Decoupling food from land.• Health, Age, Food and Pharmacy; Innovations?

Paradigm shifts or ‘the end’ of agricultural food chains.

2030

• The rise of agriculture in Africa after ‘industrial’ colonization

• The end of the ( west) European agricultural added value story. The last Chinese student in Oxford and Cambridge

• Intellectual Property Rights revisited and the end of linearity in innovation (‘decoupled’ from science)

2030; major risksCAS or disasters

• Poverty, ethnics, migration and food security ; the Chinese approach for development; neo colonialism?

• Climate, energy, demography, the economic crises and national industrial policy and protection

• Crisis in the nation state; Antiglobalism, Nationalism, Conservatism , religious fights and economic growth in a global open market without state, soul and citizens.