The future of energy in Germany – Towards an age of renewables

Dr. Georg Maue, First Secretary Climate and Energy Policy Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany 2300 M Street NW, Suite 300 , Washington, DC 20037 Tel: +1 (202) 4715 538 Fax: +1 (202) 298 4391 E-mail: wi-6@wash.diplo.de

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Introducing the „Energiewende“ (1. Message)

There is abundance of Renewables – even in Germany

in addition: with energy efficiency we only need a fraction of the today’s demand!

DemandRE Potential

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US, Spain have large solar potentials, but even with Germany‘s small potential...

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...huge installed capacities are possible and efficient (provided a policy support)

Today‘s installed PV

Cap. in Germany is over 27.000

MW !

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an example for US

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Introducing the „Energiewende“ (2. Message)

The Energiewende is a VERY COMPLEX PROCESS

Why? It means transforming almost all of today's energy supply it involves all players in the energy business and all consumers it is about a new design of supply and demand chains and patterns etc.

This entails.. mechanisms and costs/benefits are hardly understood misleading messages by politics, lobbies and media

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Introducing the „Energiewende“ (3. Message)

The Energiewende offers immense BENEFITS

for economy, environment and energy security

Why? efficiency saves energy demand and costs new investments, new jobs, more innovation and research costs for traditional fuels and power plants rise, those for RE installations

decrease drastic reduction of emissions (GHG and pollutants)

This entails: all serious projections show the Energiewende path is clearly

advantageous compared to the business as usual for economy, society and climate

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Guidelines for political

action

The BASIS: A triangle of three energy policy goals

Economicefficiency

Environmentalcompatibility

Supply security

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Energy supply in Germany today:

Not secure We import 70% infinite energy sources Not efficient Fossil fuels cost rise, they have high

external costs Not environmentally compatible Greenhouse gases

and air pollutants

we need to restructure towards sustainable energy

supply

The status quo

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1. secure: sustainable and reliable energy ressources (less imports)

2. economic: long term at affordable prices (no/less external costs)

3. environmental friendly: no/less emissions of pollutants or greenhouse gases

only renewable energies meet these criteria energy concept concentrates on renewable energies

and energy efficiency (in order to reduce the

denominator (= energy demand))

What does sustainable energy policy mean?

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The Energy Concept:Approach:

Long-term, comprehensive and specific:

1. Long-term: Timeline 20502. Comprehensive: All relevant sectors 3. Specific:

Targets Measures: ca. 180 specific measures Funding Monitoring

The „Generation-Programme“The German Government's Energy Concept

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Targets of the energy concept

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1. Renewable energy sources: Rapid, continuous expansion Cost-efficient and environmentally

friendly

2. Future grids: Flexible and powerful Integration of

electricity from renewable sources

3. Efficiency: Reduce energy

consumption Ensure efficiency

Energy Concept: A three-pronged approach

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Effects of the German nuclear phase out

• In the aftermath of the Fukushima catastrophe Germany shut down the 7 eldest NPP

• The German Energy Transformation in June 2011 laid down to speed up the implementation of the energy concept and to phase out nuclear power faster (similar to the 2001 decision)

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Power companies, some industries and critics said this will: let electricity prices (spot market and

futures) explode,CO2 certificate prices will increase (by 5 €/t

CO2)Germany will become net importer of

electricity the grid will collapse – black outs at

ChristmasCO2 emissions will rise

Effects of the German nuclear phase out

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The reality looks like:

after a short increase during spring, electricity prices on the stock market continued to fall and are at 5-years low

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CO2 prices went down by 60 %!

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Germany remains net electricity exporter2.

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16.3

30.3

13.4

27.4

11.5

25.5 8.6

22.6 6.7

20.7 3.8

17.8

31.8

14.9

28.9

12.1

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26.1

0

9.11

23.1

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7.12

21.1

2

R1-150.000,00

-100.000,00

-50.000,00

0,00

50.000,00

100.000,00

150.000,00

200.000,00

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h

Tag

Export- u. Importsalden Strom März 2011 - Januar 2012

Exporte

Import

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GHG emissions continued to decrease while economy rose

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Compensation of NPP

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Targets and Success so far with Renewable Energies

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Summary

The transformation of the German energy system (the „Energiewende“)

1. is needed to achieve sustainable energy supply

2. is beneficial: for economy (costs, energy security), society (jobs) and climate

3. is a complex task, which needs a generation to implement it

4. needs political will and a programme: the Energy Concept 2050

5. Renewables, intelligent grids and energy efficiency are key !

If it happens in Germany, it can happen everywhere!