The Future of Book Publishing
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Transcript of The Future of Book Publishing
EBOOKS AND THE FUTURE OF PUBLISHING
Fremont Area Writers Conference
Mark Coker Founder, Smashwords
Twitter: @markcoker
My Backstory
We were repped by one of the top NY literary agencies
Publishers Said “No”
• Despite great efforts of our agent, every major publisher said NO (TWICE!)
I imagined hundreds of thousands of other writers just like us
Silenced
Is it possible our book sucked?
Do we suck?
Or is Traditional Publishing the problem?
The Problem with Traditional Publishing
1. Publishers control * the printing press* the distribution* the knowledge to professionally publish
2. Publishers reject most authors
3. Publishers judge books on perceived commercial merit
4. Publishers decide what readers can read
5. Slow production cycles (12-18 mo)
6. Print books too expensive
7. Books forced out of print early
8. Authors earn only 5-17% of list price
I Envisioned a More Democratic Form of Publishing
1. Authors gain access to:* the printing press* the distribution* the knowledge to professionally publish
2. Authors free to publish what they want
3. Instant publishing
4. Readers choose what they want to read
5. Immortal books, never go out of print
6. Low cost books increase affordability
7. Authors earn the lion’s share of the proceeds
My Answer: Smashwords
• FREE ebook publishing platform
• Ebook printing press
• Distribution to major ebook stores
• Best practices knowledge
How Smashwords Works
1. UPLOAD
• Upload a Microsoft Word file, formatted to our Smashwords Style Guide
• Ready for immediate sale online
2. DISTRIBUTE
• Distribution to major retailers
3. GET PAID
• Author receives 85% of net
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Indie ebooks published at Smashwords
1406,000
28,800
92,000
185,000 +(today)
Enough about me.
Let’s talk about your future as a writer.
Let’s bust a dangerous myth
What myth should we bust?
The Myth of Big Publishing
You were taught to bow subservient before the altar of Big Publishing
you weren’t an author until a publisher blessed you as such
… and unless you got a book deal, you were a failure
… and in a sense it was true
Publishers held all the power to connect you with readers
You were told to keep toiling and waiting.
And waiting…
Rejection would make you stronger
… and if you dared indulge in the carnal pleasures of self-publishing...
Publishers were the bouncers at the pearly gates of author heaven
• Promised Perks of the Afterlife
• editing
• printing press
• distribution
• marketing
• royalties
• fame and respect
• readers
• “published author” inscribedon your tombstone
You were told …
you’d get a deal when you perfected your craft like these other great published writers
…
Justin Bieber got a book deal
Snooki got a book deal
Kourtney, Kim and Khloe got a book deal
Stop
Don’t sell your soul
The old model of publishing is broken
It has become harmful
to writersto readersto books
Yet your future is brighter than ever
You have options today that didn’t exist back in
the dark ages of publishing (four years
ago)
Q:
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF WRITERS LOST FAITH IN THE MYTH OF BIG PUBLISHING?
“GOD IS DEAD” Friedrich Nietzsche
IS BIG PUBLISHING DEAD?
No, though it has lost its way
You will decide the fate of Big Publishing
YOU’RE IN CHARGE NOW
WE LIVE IN UNCERTAIN TIMES
BOOK PUBLISHING IS COLLIDING WITH MULTIPLE CONVERGING FORCES
Let’s examine the forces, and what these changes mean for your future
NINE TRENDS TO ROCK THE WORLD OF PUBLISHING
TREND ONE
Bookselling moving to the Web
Percentage of book purchases made online vs B&M, Print and E-
Brick &Mortar
Web
Today?
Bookselling moves to the Web
• The decline of brick and mortar
• Consumer drivers:• Price
• Convenience
• Selection
• Self-published books displayed side by side with traditional books
• Big publishers no longer control distribution
TREND TWO:
Reading Moving to Screens
Screens are the new paper
A blast from the past: Ebook market share in 2008
Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Ebooks as a percentage of US wholesale trade market
Source: Association of American Publishers, publishers.org. 2012 Smashwords estimate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Ebooks to overtake print
Print books
EbooksUnitsDollars
Print books
Ebooks
Why ebooks are hot
• Screens offer better reading experience than paper
•
Changeable font size A B C D• Portable and compact
• Screens will get better/faster/cheaper
• Ebooks offer better consumption experience
• Lower cost than print
• Convenient sampling and purchasing
• Huge selection
TREND THREE
The Rise of Ebook Self-Publishing (a.k.a indie ebook publishing)
Number of books published indie vs. traditional
Indie books
Today?
New trad. books
Indies are Now Out-Publishing Big Publishers
• Indie author advantages
• faster time to market
• greater creative control
• lower expenses
• better distribution to global market
• Immortal ebooks never go out of print
• lower prices to consumers
• earn more per book
Indies are Now Out-Publishing Big Publishers
• Indies scaling all the bestseller lists
• Four Smashwords authors hit August 5 NY Times Bestseller list.
• Every week, indie ebooks are in the bestseller lists of every retailer
• This month, Apple iBookstore AU/NZ launched “Breakout Author” promotion – Smashwords only
QUADRUPLE +
Indie Ebook Authors Earn Higher Percentage of List Price
• Indies earn more at lower prices
• Indies earn more selling a $.99 ebook ($.60-$.70) than a traditional $8.00 MMP ($.40)
• At $2.99, indies earn $1.80. Trad. author would have to sell at $10.25
• Lower price = reach more readers = more sales at higher profits per sale
60-80% 12-17%
Indie Traditional
TREND FOUR
Content Explosion Leads to Downward Pressure on Prices
Glut leads to ebook price competition
March 2012October 2010
$4.25
$3.15
Average price of Smashwords ebooks
... Impact of content explosion
• The glut will only become more pronounced
• Excess supply leads to price competition
• Lower prices increase affordability and accessibility
• More books will be read than ever before
• Readers will still pay for books
• Can publishers drop prices to $2.99-$3.99?
TREND FIVE
Publishers Losing Monopoly as Writers Gain Tools to Self-Publish
Big Publishers Have Lost Their Monopoly
• Printing press is free to all
• Distribution free to all
• Knowledge to publish, distribute and market high-quality, professional books is free to all
• Professional authors asking:
• “What can a publisher do for me that I can’t do for myself?”
• “Will a publisher actually limit my ability to reach readers?”
TREND SIX
Print is Dead for Most Self-Published Authors
(and will become less and less important to traditionally published
authors)
Print is Dead
• Brick and mortar bookstores disappearing
• Most self-pubbed authors don’t have access to brick and mortar distribution
• Customers choosing low cost ebooks over high-priced print books
• Exceptions:
• Face to face print sales will continue
• Some books are meant for print (for now)
• Specialty souvenir books sold in non-traditional outlets
TREND SEVEN
Ebooks are going global
The Global Ebook Opportunity
• Countries outside the US are entering the exponential phase of their ebook growth
• Ebook retailers going global
• Apple iBookstore (50), Amazon (10), Kobo (many), B&N (U.K.+)
• 46% of Smashwords/iBookstore sales global
TREND EIGHT
Big NY Publishers are in Trouble
Big Publisher Headwinds
• Hamstrung by legacy print business
• Print business in decline, slow to adopt ebooks
• High expense structures
• Ebooks sell for less, so revenues under pressure
• Consolidation
• Big 6 now Big 5, soon to be Big 3
Suffering Self-Inflicted Wounds
• Not serving writers
• Bumbled entry into self-publishing
• Pricing ebooks too high
• Writers are angry
• Let’s review a couple of these…
Authors Singing Twisted Sister’s “We’re Not Gonna Take it!”
• Publishers:
• Reject you
• Delay you
• Value your work on perceived commercial merit
• Strip you of your creative freedom
• Force you to do most of your own marketing
• Force you out of print too soon
• Pay you only 5-17% of list price
• Price your books too high
Publishers’ High eBook Prices Threaten Writer Careers
Why?
Book buyers are price sensitive
Authors Yield Two Benefits from Every Sale
1. Money from the sale
• Unit sales X royalty per unit = profit
2. Gain a fan
• Fans spread word of mouth, recruit new fans
• Fans eagerly await your next book
• Fans are less price sensitive
Pricing strategy essential to maximize both
How Price Impacts Units Sold
What Price Yields Highest Earnings?
Publishers’ bumbled entry into self-publishing will backfire
In July, the parent company of Penguin acquired Author Solutions
Author Solutions earns over 2/3 of its income selling over-priced services to authors
$25,000 publishing packages!
Blood sucking parasites
Writers DON’T need to pay a king’s ransom to self publish
Ebook self-publishing is fast, free and easy
Print self-publishing can be free or extremely low-cost
TREND NINE
The Previous Stigma of Self-Publishing is Disappearing
Stigmas to reverse
Aspire Traditional
Aspire Indie
Today?
Aspire Indie
Aspire Traditional
4 yrs ago Future?
The Plan Forward
The 9 Trends Create a Future that …
Benefits Indie Authors
Disadvantages Some Traditionally Published Authors
You have the right to publish
For the sake of humanity, you have an obligation to publish
Your words have value
You are your own gatekeeper
YOU decide when your manuscript graduates to PUBLISHED BOOK
Unleash your words upon the world
Honor your readers with your words
Give readers great books that are as good or better than those released by
Big Publishers
(and do it faster with lower prices)
The task before you is not easy.
It requires hard work.
yet…
The Opportunity to Reach Readers Has Never Been Greater
Welcome to the new world of publishing
You’re in charge now.You have options.
Who’s The Future of Publishing?
Look around you, that’s who.
YOU are the future of publishing!
Free Ebook Publishing Resources
• NEW! Secrets to Ebook Publishing Success (best practices of successful authors)
• Smashwords Book Marketing Guide (how to market any book)
• Smashwords Style Guide (how to format an ebook)
Thank you for considering the future!
Q&AConnect with Mark Coker and Smashwords:
Web: www.smashwords.com
Blog: blog.smashwords.com
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/markcoker
Facebook: facebook.com/markcoker
HuffPo: huffingtonpost.com/mark-coker
Twitter: @markcoker