The Fundamental Unsustainability of Current and Future ... · The Earth perhaps could sustain 2...

The Fundamental Unsustainability ofCurrent and Future Fuel SystemsFuture Fuels Workshop - Fuel SustainabilityMarch 7, 2016, Building 19, Hall I, 9:00 a.m.

Tadeusz Wiktor Patzek

Patzek 1 / 55

Google Searches

Billions of hits on March 2, 20160 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Car

Food

Stocks

Fashion

iPhone

Death

Energy

Environment

Clothing

Sustainability

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Number of Automobiles in the WorldEstimated 1.5 billion; that’s 2.3 Google hits per car

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

All

Veh

icle

s, m

illio

ns

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

U.S.A.

Est. world

Sources: US Department of Transportation, DOE EIA, accessed 03/04/16

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What I Am Going to Tell You

A body painting by Hikaru Cho, 2015

Men who created the science andphilosophy westill useto understandthe world

Necessaryandsufficientconditionsof sustainability

Unsustainabilityof almost everythinghumans do

Flow of power = work/timethatcreates and maintains modernsocieties

Parting thoughts

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Two sciences

First Science: What Is It Made Of?

Weiwei Lei et al., RSChem, 2009

This question leads to the notions offundamental elements, building blocks;to measuringandquantifying:

(a) Low-magnification SEM image of Al nitride seaurchin-like nanostructures

(b) High-magnification SEM image of a singlenanostructure

(c) and(d) High-magnification SEM images ofbranched nanostructures

(d) High-magnification SEM image of nano-ringand nano-bow, marked by arrows

Patzek 5 / 55

Two sciences

Second Science: What Is the Pattern?

Landsat, Lena River delta

This second question leads to the no-tions of order, organization, and rela-tionships. Instead of quantity, it in-volvesquality, and instead of measur-ing, it involvesmapping

Answers to these two questions:“Howmuch?” and “What pattern?” havebeen in competition throughout hu-manity’s scientific and philosophicaltradition

For most of the lastfour centuries, thestudy of quantities and magnitudes hasdominated

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Modern reductionist science

Galileo Galilei: Dead Modern Science1564–1642

Justus Sustermans, 1636

The father of modern westernscience, inparticularphysicsandastronomy: Hecombined scientific experimentationwith mathematics

His approach isempirical: Scientificknowledge is based on observation ofevents in nature andinduction

Galileo’s program offers us adeadworld: Out go sight, sound, touch, andsmell, along with them estheticsensibility, values, quality, soul,consciousness, spirit.. . . We had todestroy the world intheorybefore wecould destroy it inpractice(Fritjof Capra, 1988)

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Francis Bacon: Domination of Nature1561–1626

Frans Pourbus, Łazienki Palace, Warsaw

The father of thescientific method

His approach isempirical: Scientificknowledge is based on carefulobservation of events in nature andinduction

Whenfalsephilosophies have beencultivated and gained dominance theyare no longer questioned. Falsesuperstructuresare raised on falsefoundations, and in the end systemsbarren of merit parade their grandeuron the stage of the world (Idols of theTheater,Novum Organum, 1620)

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René Descartes:Cogito ergo sum1595–1650

Frans Franchoisz Hals, Amsterdam Museum

Science providesabsolute certaintythatis mathematical: “My entire physics isnothing other than geometry”

His approach isanalytic andreductionist; it breaks up thoughts andproblems into pieces and arranges themin logical order

The material universe is aperfectmachineand nothing but a machine

This mechanistic picture provided a“scientific” sanction for themanipulation and exploitationof naturetypical of modern civilization

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They Spoke So Well For Us. . .

“I perceived it to be possible to arrive at knowledge highly useful in life . . . and thusrender ourselvesthe lords and possessors of Nature.”

“My only earthly wish is . . . to stretch the deplorably narrowlimits of man’sdominion over the universeto their promised bounds.”

“I am come in very truth leading you to Nature with all her children tobindher toyour service andmake her your slave. . .The mechanical inventions of recent yearsdo not merely exert a gentle guidance over Nature’s course, they have the power toconquerher andsubdueher, toshake her to her foundations.”

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They Spoke So Well For Us. . .

“I perceived it to be possible to arrive at knowledge highly useful in life . . . and thusrender ourselvesthe lords and possessors of Nature.”

“My only earthly wish is . . . to stretch the deplorably narrowlimits of man’sdominion over the universeto their promised bounds.”

“I am come in very truth leading you to Nature with all her children tobindher toyour service andmake her your slave. . .The mechanical inventions of recent yearsdo not merely exert a gentle guidance over Nature’s course, they have the power toconquerher andsubdueher, toshake her to her foundations.”

RENÉ DESCARTES, 1596-1650,Discourse on Method(1637)

SIR FRANCIS BACON, 1561-1626,Cogitata et Visa(1607)

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They Also Speak For Us. . .

Aggressiveaction to developadvanced biofuels. . . could virtually eliminate ourdemand for gasoline

Farmers will plantenergy cropson a large scale

Fast-growing, cost-efficient trees such as poplar and eucalyptus, and grassessuch as alfalfa and switchgrass, [are] to beharvested as biofuels

More power plants willburnbiomass along with coal to produce electricity

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They Also Speak For Us. . .

Aggressiveaction to developadvanced biofuels. . . could virtually eliminate ourdemand for gasoline

Farmers will plantenergy cropson a large scale

Fast-growing, cost-efficient trees such as poplar and eucalyptus, and grassessuch as alfalfa and switchgrass, [are] to beharvested as biofuels

More power plants willburnbiomass along with coal to produce electricity

Natural ResourcesDefenseCouncil, 2006

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This is the Path Science TookGalileo’s observations of phases of Venus (left) Descartes’ optics (right)

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. . . And This Might Have Been Another Path . . .Leonardo da Vinci, 1452 – 1519

Arno drainage basin, northern Italy

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Technology

Technology Challenges Us Forth to Find Truth

. . . Challenges and reveals the Earth:

“Such challenging happens in that the energyconcealedin nature isunlocked, what is unlocked is transformed, what is transformed is storedup, what is stored up is in turn distributed, and what is distributed isswitched about ever anew. ”

“Everywhere everything isorderedto stand by, to be immediately onhand, indeed to stand there just so that it may be on call for a furtherordering.”

Technology is a“standing-reserve”of energy for humans to order natureand, in turn, beenframedby their technology.

Martin Heidegger,The Question Concerning Technology, 1954

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Technology

In Plain English. . .

Martin Heidegger, 1889 – 1976

What Heidegger meant is:

We are an impatient species thatregards astanding-reserveof energy asa must

Since wecannotcontrol technology,technologycannotbe our tool tocontrol nature

We are apartof technology

We tend to think of technology as aninstrument that is outside of us.Instead, we are a part of a biggersystemthat comprises us andtechnology – theTECHNOSPHERE

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Summary of Conclusions

Summary of Conclusions

The Earth perhaps could sustain2 billion peoplewith renewabletechnologies (Patzek, 2007)

Old human societies wereunsustainableover the time scales of centuriesor millennia

Modern societies arehyper-unsustainableover the time scale of decades

Fossil fuelswill have to underwritea transition to other sources of energy

Sunlight and its derivatives alone, harvested in real time,canneversustain7.5billion people, even meagerly subsisting

We are in denial and have not yet developed a meaningful language totalk about therequiredchanges in global thinking and actions

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Sustainability

Process or System

SystemInputs Outputs

Boundary

Theboundaryseparates the process from the environment at any time (it isthe inter-face), and it defines theduration of the process

We may not describe a process by what happens inside or outside of it, but only bywhatcrossesits boundary

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Sustainability

Linear Processes in Resource Mining

Stock offossil fuels

500 years

Chemicalwaste

Waste heat

Examples: Coal mining, oil & gas recovery,. . .

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Sustainability

Industrial Agriculture = “Green Revolution”

Stock ofsoil/waterfossil fuels 150 years?

Chemicalwaste

Crops

Waste heat

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Sustainability

Definition of Irreversibility. . .

Max Karl Ernst Ludwig Planck, 1926: A process isirreversibleif itcan inno way be reversed, all other processes arereversible

George Hatsopoulos & Joseph Keenan, 1965: An irreversible processcannot be reversed without introducing changes in the immediatesurroundings and in the constraints of the system.

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Sustainability

Corrolaries. . .

A linear processthat converts low entropy of fossil fuels into waste isirreversible andcannot be sustainable

The linear fossil fuel process accumulates chemical entropy in the earthand the atmosphere, and irreversibly degrades our planet ona time scaleof our civilization, measured in hundreds of years

Modern agriculture, with its reliance on mining fossil fuels, soil,water and air, is irreversible and unsustainable

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Sustainability

Corrolaries. . .

All human processes interact with the “environment”

A sustainable processcannot belinear, therefore it must be acycle

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Sustainability

Thermal Cycles. . .

Work

Heat source

Heat sink

Life

Sun (5780K)

Universe (3K)

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Sustainability

MassStays on Earth: Only HeatLeaves

Source: Image Science & Analysis Laboratory, Johnson SpaceCenter

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Sustainability

Ecological Cycles =No Waste!

Otherlife

Death &Decay

H2O, CO2Nutrients

PlantMatter

Waste heatWaste heat

Sun energy

“Forever”

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Sustainability

Almost All Mass is Recycled Above GroundThe Amazon rainforest has persisted for 55 million years,but any more

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Sustainability

Result of Amazon Deforestation: Exposed Poor SoilSource: Greenpeace. An overflight of new soybean fields;topsoil will be gone in 3 years

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Sustainability

Global Impact of Indonesia FiresNASA’s Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), October 22, 1997

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Sustainability

CO2 from SE Asia Fires =Clean Biodiesel + OilSource: D. SCHMIL AND D. BAKER, The Wildfire Factor, Nature,420 29, 2002

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20021.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

CO

2 em

issi

ons,

gig

aton

nes/

yr 20 Gt of CO2

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Sustainability

Sustainability

Tadeusz W. Patzek, 2004: Acyclic process issustainableif and only if

It is capable of beingsustained, i.e. maintained without interruption,weakening or loss of quality “forever,” and

Theenvironment on which this process feeds and to which it expels itswaste is also sustained “forever”

Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel Cycle, CRPS,23(6), 519-567, December 2004

Practically all human activities are unsustainable; they’re not even cycles.“Forever” must be defined.

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Sustainability

Gross and Net Primary Productivity on LandEstimated from the MODIS instrument on Landsat

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Land

GP

P, N

PP

, bill

ion

tons

C/y

0

20

40

60

80

100

120GPP

NPP

Respiration = food for plants

Plant growth and food for plant consumers

NPP of all cultivated land

Crops

Based on estimates of temperature, water stress, and APAR onland surface, accessed 03/04/16

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Sustainability

The Paradigm of Earth =No GrowthThe Paradigm of Humans =Exponential Growth

How will this clash of paradigms end?

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Power and Society

We Run on Power =Work/Time

Tokyo

A modern society is a dynamic,far-from-equilibriumstructure thatrequires constantflow of energythrough it

The more complex the society is themore energy throughput (power) itrequires

Conversely, the diminished powerresults in asimplificationof socialstructures

Edible food-like substances weconsumerequire huge power flows

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Power and Society

U.S. Hydrocarbon Metabolism

Each day, a U.S. resident gulps4 gallonsof hydrocarbons as crude oilequivalents

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Power and Society

Global Hydrocarbon Metabolism

Barrel of oil equivalent/day-person10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100

GD

P (

US

D)/

day-

pers

on

100

101

102

Burundi

Chad

Congo

Togo

China

Gibraltar

Luxembourg

Poland

Qatar

KSA

US

Brazil

y∝ x0.63 - mammal skin area with body massy∝ x3/4- metabolism with body mass

Sources: CIA, EIA, Patzek’s calculations, 03/28/11Patzek 35 / 55

Power and Society

Global Hydrocarbon Metabolism

Power inputs from 100W, 12 h/day energy servants10-1 100 101 102 103

Pow

er o

utpu

ts, G

DP

/day

-per

son

100

101

102US123

Brazil

US

KSA

Qatar

Poland

Luxembourg

Gibraltar

China

Togo

Congo

Chad

Burundi

Botswana

Angola

y∝ x3/4- metabolism with body mass

Sources: CIA, EIA, Patzek’s calculations, 03/28/11

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Power and Society

Parting Thoughts. . .

Crude oil and natural gas will have tounderwritethe incredible newdemand forpowerto develop a new infrastructure and new sources ofpower for the world in the next50-75years

Seventy fiveyears is how long the responsible environmentalists willhave to rely on oil and gas to realize their dreams

If investment in maintaining global oil and gas production goes down,we lose hydrocarbon production, the global economy goes down too, andall bets are off

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Power and Society

Epistemic Humility

Captive Mindby Czesław Miłosz:

An old Jew in Galicia once made an observation: “When someoneis honestly55% right, that’s very good and there’s no use wrangling. Andif someone is60% right, it’s wonderful, it’s great luck, and let them thank God. But what’sto be said about 75% right? Wise people say this is suspicious. Well, and whatabout 100% right? Whoever says he’s 100% right is a fanatic, athug, and theworst kind of rascal.”

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Backup slides

Net Primary Productivity of the EarthLand 56.4 GtC/y, ocean 48.5 GtC/y

Provided by the SeaWiFS Project, Goddard Space Flight Center and ORBIMAGE, 25 Oct, 2005

Temperate forests, 24; tropical forests, 16; cultivated land, 11; open ocean, 39 gtC/y

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Backup slides

Net Ecosystem Productivity→ 0

0 100 200 300 400 500 600−0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Age, years

kg/

m 2 −

yr

NPPR

h

NEP

Source: SONGA & W OODCOCK (2003), simulation of H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest

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Shale Oil & Gas in U.S.A. vs. World

Net Increase of World’s Oil & Lease Condensate ProductionRelative to 2005. Source: U.S. DOE EIA, accessed 02/01/2016

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Pro

duct

ion

Rat

e, 1

06 b

arre

ls/d

ay

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Global O&LC relative to 2005US O&LC relative to 2005

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Barnett Gas Production RateSource: Texas Railroad Commission

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Pro

duct

ion

rate

, EJ/

year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Texas RRCPrediction

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Eagle Ford Energy Production RateSource: Texas Railroad Commission

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tot

al R

ate

EJ/

year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6TRR CommissionHubbert curve

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Bakken Energy Production RateSource: North Dakota Petroleum Council

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tot

al R

ate

EJ/

year

0

1

2

3

4

5

6N. Dakota PCHubbert curve

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Barnett Cumulative Energy ProducedSource: Texas Railroad Commission

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cum

ulat

ive

prod

uctio

n, E

J

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Texas RRCPrediction

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Eagle Ford Cumulative Produced EnergySource: Texas Railroad Commission

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cum

ulat

ive

ener

gy p

rodu

ctio

n, E

J

0

5

10

15

20

25


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Bakken Cumulative Produced EnergySource: North Dakota Petroleum Council

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cum

ulat

ive

ener

gy p

rodu

ctio

n, E

J

0

5

10

15

20

25


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Eagle Ford Oil RateSource: Texas Railroad Commission

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Oil

rate

10

6 b

bl o

il/da

y

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6TRR CommissionHubbert curve

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Eagle Ford Cumulative OilSource: Texas Railroad Commission

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cum

ulat

ive

oil p

rodu

ctio

n, B

illio

n bb

l

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5


Patzek 49 / 55


Eagle Ford Gas RateSource: Texas Railroad Commission

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gas

rat

e 10

9 s

cf g

as/d

ay

0

1

2

3

4

5

6


Patzek 50 / 55


Eagle Ford Cumulative GasSource: Texas Railroad Commission

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cum

ulat

ive

gas

prod

uctio

n, 1

012 s

cf

0

2

4

6

8

10


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Bakken Oil RateSource: North Dakota Petroleum Council

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Oil

rate

10

6 b

bl o

il/da

y

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2N. Dakota PCHubbert curve

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Bakken Cumulative OilSource: North Dakota Petroleum Council

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cum

ulat

ive

oil p

rodu

ctio

n, B

illio

n bb

l

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5


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Bakken Gas RateSource: North Dakota Petroleum Council

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gas

rat

e 10

9 s

cf g

as/d

ay

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4


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Bakken Cumulative GasSource: North Dakota Petroleum Council

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Cum

ulat

ive

gas

prod

uctio

n, 1

012 s

cf

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3


Patzek 55 / 55

The Fundamental Unsustainability of Current and Future ... · The Earth perhaps could sustain 2...

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