The Foodservice Equipment & Supplies Market: Size, Scope ... · U.S. market at the end-user level...

Foodservice Equipment Reports ©20141

The Foodservice

Equipment & Supplies Market:

Size, Scope & Outlook

By Robin Ashton, Publisher

Foodservice Equipment Reports

Nov. 13, 2014

Emerson E360 Summit

Columbus, Ohio


A Market Overview And A Look At

The State Of The Industry• Today, we’ll try to give you the 45-minute version of

the foodservice and foodservice equipment markets.

• We’ll look at how they are structured, both in the U.S.

and globally, and how equipment gets to market.

• We’ll look at some of the big players, both operators

and equipment manufacturers.

• We’ll also look at the outlook this year and next for

operators and for the equipment industry.

• We’ll give you plenty of time for questions.


U.S. Foodservice & Equipment Markets

• The foodservice market in the United States is huge,

complex, diverse and relatively mature.

• Chicago-based research firm Technomic Inc. estimates

U.S. market at the end-user level at $703 billion in 2014.

• Technomic details 20 foodservice “segments,” purchasing

$251 billion of food, beverages and non-foods in ’13.

• NAFEM/FER estimates equipment and supplies market at

$10.1 billion in 2014 at manufacturer level.

• Equipment accounts for 82% of total U.S./Canada E&S

market; durable supplies and tabletop account for 18%.


U.S. Foodservice Market By Segment

31%

29%

9%

8%

7%

5%

3%8%

Food & Beverage Purchases, 2014

Total: $251.295 BillionSource: Technomic

LSR

FSR/Bars

Lodging/Rec.

Retail

Education

Healthcare

Business

All Other


U.S. Foodservice Market By Segment

25%

25%

8%

18%

12%

7%

0%

5%

Unit Distribution, 2014

Total: 1,136,220Source: Technomic Inc.

LSR

FSR/Bars

Lodging/Rec.

Retail

Education

Healthcare

Business

All Other


Operator Market Structure—U.S.

• There are 1.3 million foodservice kitchens in the U.S., but

“it’s a multiunit world.”

• U.S. foodservice is dominated by chain and other

“multiunit” operators including foodservice management

companies and big institutional operators.

• Top 500 chain concepts control nearly 60% of restaurant

sales and 40% of all units.

• On the institutional side of foodservice, management

companies operate 20% to 80% of key segments.

• U.S. more “chain” dominant than most other developed

and developing foodservice markets.


Operator Market Structure—Global

• Big chain, institutional and other multiunit foodservice

operators also rule global markets.

• They continue to grow and gain market share everywhere,

though chain penetration varies by market.

• In the U.S. market, multiunit operators clearly purchase a

majority of all new equipment and supplies.

• As multiunit operators, they have unique needs and much

more complex specification and purchasing processes.

• Markets outside North America and Europe are growing

faster, but remain significantly smaller.


Top 500 Chains’ Market Share 2013

59%

41%

Share Of Restaurant Sales

Total: $449 Billion, 2013Source: Technomic Inc.

Top 500

Rest of

Industry

41%

59%

Share of Restaurant Units

Total: 522,060, 2013Source: Technomic Inc.

Top 500

Rest of

Industry


Global Foodservice Market Share:

NPD Group, 2011

USA42%

Canada5%

Australia4%

Great Britain8%

Germany9%

France6%

Spain5% Italy

8%

Japan11%

China1%

Russia2%


NPD: Traffic Share Of Chain Vs.

Independent Restaurants, 2010

61.8

75.4

44.2

56.3

25.9

45.1

22.916.6

59.3

36.3

64.0

38.2

24.6

55.8

43.7

74.1

54.9

77.183.4

40.7

63.7

36.0

USA Canada Australia Great

Britain

Germany France Spain Italy Japan China Russia

Chains

IndependentsShare of Visits


62% 63% 64% 64%

11% 11% 11%

28% 27% 26% 25% 25%

61%

11%11%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Major Chain Traffic Share, NPD

PCYA = % Change vs. Year Ago

Traffic Distribution - OND

Major

Chains

Small

Chains

Indepen-

dents

PCYA CAGR

1%-1%

-1%-1%

-2%-2%

CAGR= Cumulative Annual Growth Rate 2009 to 2013

Total Restaurants

OND'13 Traffic -

1%

CREST Major Chains 1%

Sm. Chains & Independents 0%

ReCount Unit Counts PCYA

11Source: CREST / ReCount


Operator Market Structure

• A few thousand organizations—chains, FS mgmt.

companies, big institutions—are keys to U.S. market.

• They not only control a majority of operator sales, but

account for an estimated 70-75% of new E&S purchases.

• They don’t purchase E&S like independent operators.

• They are the most brand sensitive and have complex

specification, evaluation and distribution processes.

• This is particularly true of the big QSR brands, but is also

true of other chains and big institutions.


U.S. Equipment & Supplies

Market Structure• The U.S. market for E&S is very large, diverse and

fragmented. More than $10 billion in sales annually.

• Manufacturers’ association, NAFEM, has more than 600

members. Most companies remain privately held.

• FER Worldwide Buyers Guide has more than 1,500 U.S.

companies selling E&S; more than 5,000 worldwide.

• While big E&S conglomerates dominate, many U.S.

companies in $10-$20 million range.

• The North American market is only 40% of worldwide market.

• NAFEM breaks market into nine big product categories; we

list 760 product categories in our Worldwide Buyers Guide.


U.S. E&S Market By Product

20%

23%

7%13%

4%

9%

6%

7%

11%

E&S Market Share By Product Category, 2014

Total: $10.145 BillionSource: NAFEM & FER Estimates

Cooking Equip.

Refrig./Ice

Storage & Hand.

Serving Equip.

Food Prep Equip.

Warewash & San.

Cust.Fab/Furnish.

Smallwares

Tabletop


FER E&S Market Forecast—2014(Base market numbers, NAFEM, 2011)

Nom. Real $$$

Growth Growth Millions

Total Equipment 4.4% 2.5% $8,375

Total Supplies 3.9 1.8 $1,770

Total Industry 3.3 1.5 $10,145Rounding affects totals


FER E&S Forecast—2014

Nom. Real $$$


Primary Cooking 4.6% 2% $2,068

Refrigeration & Ice 4.8 2.4 $2,336

Storage & Handling 3.7 2.2 $ 710

Serving Equipment 4.4 2.3 $1,292



Nom. Real $$$


Prep. Equipment 4.3% 2% $ 442

Warewash & Ventil. 4 2.2 $ 885

Furn. & Custom Fab. 3.6 1.9 $ 642

Smallwares 4.5 2.2 $ 655

Tabletop & Serv. 4.5 2.1 $1,114


Top 100 E&S Manufacturers: 1-25Top 100 E&S

Manufacturers

Estimated Estimated Estimated

13 vs. 12 ($MM) ($MM) ($MM)

Company % Change 2013 2012 2011

1 Manitowoc FS 3.8% 1542.2 1486.2 1453.5

2 ITW Foodservice NA 6.0% 1473.5 1389.7 1347.9

3 Middleby 13.9% 895.5 786.4 723.3

4 Ali Group FS NA 61.4% 660 409.0 395.0

5 Hoshizaki /Lancer FS 12.7% 445 395.0 360.0

6 Libbey FS -1.0% 433.9 438.2 417.5

7 Standex Foodservice -1.4% 388.1 393.8 380.4

8 Vollrath 4.1% 356 342.0 232.0

9 IMI Cornelius -3.4% 337 349.0 337.4

10 Captive Aire 6.5% 321.4 301.8 269.5

11 True Foodservice -0.5% 315 316.6 305.0

12 Cambro 13.8% 278.1 244.3 229.0

13 Carrier Foodservice 9.8% 269 245.0 265.0

14 Carlisle FS -1.8% 238.8 243.3 235.8

15 Bunn O Matic 6.1% 221.5 208.8 200.8

16 Dover Unified Brands 7.8% 200 185.6 176.0

17 Franke Contract Group 4.0% 184.5 177.4 162.0

18 Rubbermaid FS 3.4% 177.7 171.8 165.0

19 Henny Penny -2.2% 174 178.0 155.0

20 Pentair / Everpure FS 5.8% 157.7 149.0 105.0

21 Duke Mfg 7.0% 154.1 144.0 129.2

22 H&K International -5.5% 135 142.9 131.8

23 Hatco 9.4% 134.8 123.2 110.0

24 Marmon Retail Group 4.6% 130 124.3 87

25 EveryWare -1.5% 126.5 128.4 100

Top 25 Mfrs. 7.4% $9,749.3 $9,073.7 $8,473.1


U.S. E&S Buyer, Specification &

Distribution Channels

• The paths and influences in operator E&S buying,

specifying and logistics decisions are multi-faceted.

• The “normal” path is OEM manufacturer to independent

multi-line sales rep to dealer to operator.

• Big institutional operators usually also employ an

independent design or concept consultant.

• Many chain and big institutional operators generally

follow these “normal” paths and channels.

• But there are also many side paths, “direct” relationships

and other outside influences.


U.S. E&S Buyer, Specification &

Distribution Channels


Chain Functions That Evaluate

E&S Suppliers• No matter the size or structure of a chain, multiple

functions have some input into selecting suppliers.

• Almost always, operations management have significant input as do senior execs and culinary.

• But when it comes to the most say in supplier choice, senior execs are key, especially in smaller chains.

• About one in five respondents name purchasing or operation management as the key “chooser.”

• In larger chains, R&D personnel, both equipment engineers and culinary are named more often, along with other specialist titles.


Chain Functions That Evaluate

E&S Suppliers

64%

76%

26%34%

39% 39%

61%

Have Some Input

(All That Apply)

41%

21%

0%

6%10%

2%

21%

Have Most Input

(Name One Only)


Criteria Influencing Chain Buyers

Choice of E&S Products/Suppliers• Many different criteria are involved in chain buyers E&S

product and supplier choices.

• Labor savings, ease of use, energy efficiency, both initial and

lifecycle cost, speed and previous experience with the supplier

are all named by more than 50% of buyers.

• But the most critical criteria is clearly the product’s and

supplier’s impact on food and menu product quality.

• Ease of use, initial cost and labor savings are the next most

commonly mentioned criteria.

• Unique technology, water savings and availability are cited by

the fewest respondents as important.


Criteria Influencing Chain Buyers

Choice of E&S Products/Suppliers

46%72% 85%

58%78% 68%

41%72%

54% 40%59%

11%

35%

62%

17%

42%

17%

0%

42%

23%

11%

17%

Criteria Influencing Product/Supplier Choice

Some Influence (Name All) Most Influence (Name 3 or Fewer)


Other Testing & Evaluation Procedures

31%

52%

3% 4% 5%3% 4%

On-Site

Test Kitch.

Operating

Unit

Mfrs. Test

Kitch.

Mfrs. Rep.

Test Kitch.

Dealer Test

Kitch.

Consult.

Test Kitch.

Food

Supplier

Kitch.

Where Do You Test New E&S Products?


General Economy Overview

• It was a tough first quarter 2014, thanks to the weather.

• General economy tanked and Technomic estimates winter cost foodservice 1.5 points in growth this year.

• But that’s was then. All general economy foodservice drivers have been very positive since.

• GDP surged to 4.2% annualized growth 2Q; advance 3Q estimate 3.5%.

• Disposable income and consumer spending improving.

• Employment trends, consumer confidence, and gasoline prices are very positive for foodservice.

• The forecasts are for an even better 15 on all fronts.


Operator Sales Recent History

• After falling 7.5% during 2008-10 period, total industry operator real sales have been positive since 2011.

• After moderate gain in 11, Technomic estimates in 12 industry sales grew 1.9% real, 4% nominal.

• 12 was by far best year since 2006 and best of recovery.

• NRA has it a bit different, with 11 up 1.7% real and 12 industry growth slightly slower at 1.5% real.

• The NPD Group reports overall traffic rose 1% in 12, first year-over-year increase since Great Recession.

• But with population increase, per capita visits still falling.

• Young people and those less well off eating out less.


Operator Forecasts 2013-2015

• Technomic final 13 estimate: 3.1% nominal, 1.1% real.

• NPD reported flat year for traffic in 2013.

• NRA’s estimate for 13 matches Technomic’s: 3.2% nominal and 1% real growth.

• Technomic revised 14 forecast down twice thanks to winter impact: now 3.3% nom., 0.1% real. Menu prices rising.

• NRA forecast was 3.6% nominal, 1.2% real, but that was before impact of winter was known.

• NPD forecast 1% traffic gains for 14, but expects flat visits.

• Technomic’s preliminary 2015 forecast is for 3.1% nominal and 1.2% real increase.


Technomic Operator Sales Changes

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Nom. Sales Real Sales


Technomic Operator Sales Changes

4

5.8 6 5.76.8

-3.9 -3.7

0.6

2.4

43.1 3.3 3.1

2.4 2.32.8 2.6 3

0.4

-6.9

-0.60.1

1.91.1

0.11.2

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F2015F

Nom. Sales Real Sales


NPD Per Capita Visits: 1984-2013

167

171174

177

181 180 179 181 182 183187

192 193196

202205

208 210208

204 205 205207 208 208

206

197195

193 192

198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

Source: The NPD Group/ 26th Annual Eating Patterns of America

Annual Commercial Foodservice Meals Per Person In the USA

Promise & Challenge


Current Sales & Traffic Trends

• Data from Technomic, NPD and NRA show 2013 was an

up and down year, ending on a down note.

• Technomic chain same-store sales trended lower in the

last quarter 2013 as winter began to take hold.

• They fell again in 1Q/14 as winter hit with full force.

• Full-service chains continue to struggle; same-store sales

have been negative three of last five quarters.

• Limited-service chains were still positive 1Q/14, up 1.7%

less McD’s. Add McD’s, only 0.7% LSR gain.

• Still, 41 chains up 1Q versus 26 down.


3.63

1.651.781.550.84

2.762.05

0.690.460.33-0.61-0.78

-1.93-2.3-3.1-3.3

-0.10.5

1.8

4

1.21.52.3

3.74.74.9

43.3

1.92.72.82.4

1.7

3.34.1

2.8

0.4-0.1

-0.7-0.8

0.40.7

-0.9-0.3

-1

-3.3

-4.7-3.89

-2.2-2.7

-1.8-1.5

-0.40.60.90.91.30.90.9

2.9

1.21.7

0.6-0.1

1.6

-0.10.7

-0.30.4

2.4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8 LSR w/o McDs FSR

Technomic Same-Store Sales Index

Weighted Avg. Change, Excluding McDonald’s


Sales & Traffic Trends

• NPD’s CREST traffic numbers have been flat or negative

since the 3Q/13.

• Overall traffic fell 1% in 1Q/14, thanks to harsh winter,

but moved to flat in 2Q.

• QSR traffic was up 1% in 2Q/14 after two quarters flat.

Segment controls 79% of visits.

• Casual-dining traffic was not negative for first time since

2008 2Q/13, but has been negative since.

• Fine dining continues to do well on strong business travel

but accounts for less than 2% of total visits.


NPD Traffic By Segment

35


NPD Traffic By Segment

-4%-4%-3%-3%-2%-2%-2%-2%-3%

0%0%0%1%1%

0%1%1%1%

-2%-2%-3%-2%

0%

-1%-1%-3%-2%

Traffic % Change vs. Year Ago

QSR

( )

Midscale

( )

Casual Dining

( )

Fine Dining/

Upscale Hotel

( )

(Share of Traffic AMJ'14)

79%

9%

10%

2%

5% 0% 4% 5% 6% 6% 4% 2% 2%

AMJ'12 JAS'12 OND'12 JFM'13 AMJ'13 JAS'13 OND'13 JFM'14 AMJ'14

Total Restaurants

AMJ'14 Traffic 0%

The NPD Group, Inc. | Proprietary and Confidential Source: CREST


Sales & Traffic Trends

• NRA’s overall Restaurant Performance Index has been in

expansion territory for 19 consecutive months.

• Traffic per NRA went negative in December 2013 and

remained negative through February 14, thank to winter.

• Beginning March, the index rebounded sharply.

• But the RPI has waffled since summer, down slightly in

June and July, up in august and down in September.

• Operators are worried about increased food and labor

costs cutting margins.

• Their outlook in September RPI fell sharply.


NRA Restaurant Performance Index

September 2014


“Beyond Restaurants” Operator Trends

• Nearly all “spec” market segments are growing again.

• Technomic forecasts real growth for every “Beyond

Restaurants” segment save transport and corrections.

• Hospitals, long-term care, senior living, colleges, and

military foodservice showing strong growth in “sales,”

with real growth of 1.5% or more, per Technomic.

• Supermarket foodservice continues to surge, forecast to

grow 6% nominal, 2.4% real in 14, 3.9% real in 15.

• Lodging foodservice growing fast with 5.5% forecast

nominal growth both 14 and 15.


“Beyond Restaurants” Operator Trends

• NPD CREST Onsite has noncommercial segments and lodging

seeing increased traffic. Traffic rose 1% in 13.

• Consultants are seeing more activity from all spec segments,

according to the MAFSI Barometer.

• Tax receipt trends are slowing, as impact of 2012-13 fiscal

front-loading effect plays out.

• Wealthy taxpayers moved capital, dividend gains into 2012.

• Both income tax and sales tax growth have slowed, though

property tax receipts nudging toward positive.

• Preliminary 2Q data shows another quarter of lower receipts.


State & Local Tax Trends,

Four-Quarter Moving Average


Operator Unit Trends

• During the three years of the recession, independents lost

units while chains continued to add units.

• For the three-year period 2009-11, chains added 4,511

units while independents lost 7,158, per NPD’s ReCount.

• More than 75% of all lost units were full service.

• Net loss, in a universe of 600,000 units, was only 2,647,

an incredibly small number given big sales drop.

• But there was plenty of churn, as CHD numbers show.

• Technomic, NPD and CHD all report net unit growth

returned in 2011 and 2012.


NPD ReCount Unit Changes, 2009-11

44


CHD Unit Trends 2009-2013


CHD Unit Trends 2009-2014


Operator Unit Trends, NPD ReCount

• NPD’s ReCount Census shows a net gain of 5,000 to

6,000 restaurants a year since 2012.

• Total restaurant units grew 0.9% for year ended

spring 2013 (March 31 ending) versus 2012.

• Market added another 5,002 units in the past year.

Total: 635,494.

• Chains added 3,718 net units 13 to 14, up 1.3%.

• Independents added 1,284 net units, up 0.4%.

• In ReCount, chains control 44.7% of total restaurants.



Spring 2010 Spring 2011 Spring 2012 Spring 2013 Spring 2014

616,257 619,481 624,896 630,492 635,494

NPD ReCount Restaurant Units, Revised Totals



Spring '13 to '14

2010 Spring 2011 Spring 2012 Spring 2013 Spring 2014 Spring 14 PCYA Unit Change

Total 616257 619481 624896 630492 635494 0.8% 5002

CHAIN 270245 272363 275608 280417 284135 1.3% 3718

INDEPENDENT 346012 347118 349288 350075 351359 0.4% 1284

Source: The NPD Group/Spring 2014 ReCount®


Operator Capital Expenditure Outlook

• Operator spending on equipment and supplies is quite healthy despite tough winter.

• Many older chains continue to spend for renovation and replacement, younger chains adding units.

• Three years of positive sales have helped smaller and independent operators spend for E&S, too.

• Spec markets are finally beginning to spend again after nearly five-year lull.

• Operators surveyed by NRA are quite optimistic about sales and business conditions six months out.


Operator Capital Expenditure Outlook

• Harsh winter appears to have dampened operators’ sales more than their capital spending.

• Pent-up demand for E&S among operators remains high.

• In May RPI, 62% planned a capital purchase in the next six months matching levels not seen since 07.

• Credit and cash-flow/capital formation are normal.

• However, margin squeeze from rising food and labor costs are worrisome.

• Publicly funded segments seeing improvement in availability of capital for facilities projects.

• Technomic’s forecasts moderately better 2015 growth.


NRA Index Of Operators

Making Capital Expenditure Purchase

Past Three Months, 09/2014

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

Au

g. 0

6

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Au

g-0

8

Dec

-08

May

-09

Sep

-09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep

-10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep

-11

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep

-12

Jan-

13

May

-13

Sep

-13

Jan-

14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Current Situation Index--Cap Ex


NRA Index Of Operators

Planning Capital Expenditure Purchase

Next Six Months, 09/2014

94

95

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14

Expectations Index--Cap Ex


2015 FER

Equipment & Supplies

Market Forecast


E&S Market & Forecast Overview

• The foodservice equipment and supplies market is in the fifth year of recovery from the recession.

• The growth of the E&S market has been quite remarkable given that operator sales growth has been moderate.

• Recovery began 2Q/10 (public companies) to 4Q/10 (MAFSI Business Barometer, reflecting broader market.)

• 2011 was a strong bounce-back year for E&S.

• The market’s rate of growth slowed beginning 2Q/12 through 1Q/2013.

• Then, the remainder of last year, growth accelerated. 2013 turned out to be a surprisingly good year.


The E&S Market—2013

• Very slow 1Q/13 fooled us as we forecast last year.

• The payroll tax increase and an unusual winter run-up in

gasoline prices hurt operators first half of year.

• But then the E&S market, in spite of sluggish operator sales

and traffic, really took off.

• MAFSI Barometer 2Q hit post-recession high, up 6.1%.

• MAFSI Barometer average for 2013 was gain of 4.5%.

• Public companies showed similar pattern with bounce back

2Q to 4.1% growth and great 4Q 8.4% gain.

• In March this year, we boosted our 13 estimate to 4.5%

nominal gain, 2.4% real, up more than a point.

56


Top 100 Mfrs., Change vs. Prior Year

8.7%

3.0%

-9.6%

3.9%

6.4%5.7%

7.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



• E&S sales slowed in the first half in the broad market, but big public equipment companies are doing well.

• Rest of the year looks very good; MAFSI reps forecast 5.7% 3Q growth; still forecast 4.9% for year, a record.

• All the basic macroeconomic factors are looking as good as they have since the recession, especially jobs growth.

• The spec markets, a third to 40% of total E&S market, are recovering with many projects on line.

• MAFSI quotation, consultant activity numbers very good.

• Operator food and labor cost run-ups are a worry.

• Given all this, we took our original 2014 forecast up.


MAFSI Barometer History, 2Q/14

59


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Equipment

Supplies

Total

Public E&S Company Blended Sales,

Quarterly % Changes Vs. Year Prior

60


MAFSI Barometer—2Q/14

61


MAFSI Barometer—2Q/14


Revised FER E&S Forecast—2014

Nom. Prices Real

Growth Growth

Total Equipment 4.4% 2.1% 2.3%

Total Supplies 4.5 2.4 2.1

Total Industry 4.4 2.1 2.3Rounding affects totals



Nom. Prices Real

Growth Growth

Primary Cooking 4.6% 2.0% 2.6%

Refrigeration & Ice 4.8 2.4 2.4

Storage & Handling 3.7 1.5 2.2

Serving Equipment 4.4 2.1 2.3



Nom. Prices Real

Growth Growth

Prep Equipment 4.3% 2.3% 2.0%

Warewash & Ventil. 4.0 1.8 2.2

Furn. & Custom Fab. 3.6 1.7 1.9

Smallwares 4.5 2.3 2.2

Tabletop & Serv. 4.5 2.4 2.1



• The macroeconomic forecasts for 2015 look as good as

they have anytime since the Great Recession.

• Europe is recovering and most Asian growth rates are

stronger. Export ever bigger part of U.S. E&S market.

• Operator forecasts call for improved sales environment

and lower food-price inflation.

• MAFSI numbers on rep quotation and consultant activity

are stronger than they’ve been in years.

• E&S price increases will probably go higher given

materials price run-ups.

• We forecast stronger E&S market growth in 2015.

66



Nom. Prices Real

Growth Growth

Total Equipment 4.9% 2.3% 2.5%

Total Supplies 4.5 2.2 2.3

Total Industry 4.8 2.3 2.5Rounding affects totals



Nom. Prices Real

Growth Growth

Primary Cooking 5.2% 2.4% 2.8%

Refrigeration & Ice 5.0 2.5 2.5

Storage & Handling 4.4 2.0 2.4

Serving Equipment 4.9 2.3 2.6



Nom. Prices Real

Growth Growth

Prep Equipment 4.5% 2.3% 2.2%

Warewash & Ventil. 4.6 2.2 2.4

Furn. & Custom Fab. 4.2 2.0 2.2

Smallwares 4.7 2.3 2.4

Tabletop & Serv. 4.4 2.1 2.3


The E&S Market—2001-2015

-15

5

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Real Change

Nom. Change

70


The E&S Market—2011-2015

4.7

3.8

4.5 4.4

4.8

2.9

1.8

2.4 2.32.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Nom. Change

Real Change

71


The FER E&S Forecast—2015

Final Thoughts• 2015 could well be the peak of the current cycle.

• Stronger operator environment should combine with rebound of the spec markets to boost growth.

• Mature U.S. market will remain driven by the four “R”s: renovation, replacement, (menu) roll-outs and repair.

• There are hundreds of thousand of existing units and facilities that need constant renovation and re-equipping.

• U.S. chain brands (and their suppliers) are dominant in the global race and they are building units like crazy.

• International growth is in part why U.S. E&S market growth exceeds core U.S. operator growth.


FER E&S Market Forecasts

2013-2018

Real and nominal percentage changes in E&S market growth 2013-2018.All numbers are FER forecasts.

2.4 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2

4.5 4.44.8 4.6

4.34

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Real Change

Nom. Change

73


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The Foodservice Equipment & Supplies Market: Size, Scope ... · U.S. market at the end-user level...

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