The Federal R&D Budget Outlook and... · 2020. 2. 28. · 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024...

Copyright © 2019 American Association for the Advancement of Science 1

The Federal R&D Budget Outlook

Matt HourihanFebruary 28, 2020For the Council on Government RelationsAAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/rd


DOD Basic Science

DARPA

NIH NSF

NIST DOE Science

DOE Tech

NASA

USDA**

NOAA Research

EPA Science

US Geo Survey

VA Research

-65%

-60%

-55%

-50%

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Select Science & Tech Programs in FY 2020 AppropriationsEstimated percentage change from FY 2019, nominal dollars

FY 2020 Request House Senate Final

*Includes renewables and efficiency, nuclear, fossil, grid research, cybersecurity, ARPA-E. **Includes ARS, NIFA, ERS, NASS. | AAAS January 2020


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

DOE EnergyTech*

DOE Officeof Science

NIH VAResearch

DODScience and

Tech

NOAAResearch

CompetitiveAg Grants

U.S. GeoSurvey

NASA NSF NIST Labs

Science Agency Budget Increases Since January 2017Percent change from FY 2016 - FY 2020, nominal dollars

*Nuclear, fossil, renewables, efficiency, grid, ARPA-E. Source: agency budget documents and appropriations. | AAAS 2020


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Select Federal S&T Spending Since FY 2010Percent change from FY10 levels, constant dollars

Discretionary Caps

DOE TechPrograms*

DOD Basic Science

DOE Science

NIH

NSF

NASA

USDA R&DPrograms

*Includes OE, EERE, Fossil, Nuclear, Cybersecurity, ARPA-E.Based on AAAS analyses of historical OMB, agency, and appropriations data. © 2020 AAAS


$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Limits on Nondefense Discretionary Spending, Current and ProposedBillions of constant 2020 dollars

Actual Caps w/ Congress Adjustments President's FY 21 Budget

Projected Baseline* Pre-Sequester Caps

Sequester Caps

*OMB current services projections. Based on OMB budget documents and past budget resolutions and other legislation. © AAAS 2020


$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Limits on Defense Discretionary Spending, Current and ProposedBillions of constant 2020 dollars. Excluding OCO Funding.

Actual Caps w/ Congress Adjustments Projected Baseline*

President's FY 21 Budget Pre-Sequester Caps

Sequester Caps



Defense Discretionary, $689

[Defense R&D], $65

Nondefense Discretionary, $656

[Nondefense R&D], $76

Social Security, $1,151

Medicare, $722

Medicaid, $448

Other Mandatory, $645

Net Interest, $378

Composition of the Proposed FY 2021 Budget

Total Outlays = $4.8 trillionBelow: outlays in billions of dollars

Source: Budget of the United States Government FY 2021. © 2020 AAAS


-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

Science & Tech Agencies in the Trump Administration's BudgetsProposed year-over-year changes, nominal dollars

FY18 Request FY19 Request FY20 Request FY21 Request

*Includes renewables, efficiency , nuclear, fossil, grid research, cy bersecurity , A RPA-E. | AAAS


Major White House R&D Priorities in FY21

▪ Artificial Intelligence▪ NSF: +$403 million▪ DOE: +$54 million for AI initiative▪ DARPA: several new or increased projects▪ USDA: +$100 million for AI competitive grants▪ NIH: $50 million initiative

▪ Quantum Science▪ NSF: +$120 million▪ DOE: +$70 million for QIS Initiative

▪ Space Exploration: +$3.5 billion for moon/Mars missions, mainly for a human lander

▪ Critical Infrastructure:▪ Increases for DOE cybersecurity office▪ ~$10 billion for DOD cyberspace activities▪ NOAA Space Weather satellite continues

▪ Critical Minerals: $131 for million DOE initiative


But Several Missed/Mixed Priority Areas?*

▪ Advanced Manufacturing: New NIST- and DOD-sponsored institutes, but reductions elsewhere

▪ Energy R&D: ARPA-E eliminated, reductions for low-carbon R&D

▪ Oceans R&D: sizable reductions for NOAA research office, Ocean Service

▪ Earth Modeling: reductions for DOE activities, NASA earth observation missions

▪ STEM Education: reductions for certain NIH, NASA, NSF, DOD activities

*As identified in 2019 OSTP/OMB priorities memo: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/FY-21-RD-Budget-Priorities.pdf


Highlights: DOD

▪ Basic Research: -$284 million, -11%

▪ University Initiatives: -20%▪ But: mixed for instrumentation,

multidisciplinary research, fellowship programs

▪ National Defense Education Program: -30%▪ But: SMART scholarship program funding

increased

▪ Minerva Initiative de-funded

▪ Medical research: $1.4 billion for Congressionally Directed Medical Research program in FY 2020

▪ DARPA: +3.1%


Highlights: NIH

▪ $38.7 billion request▪ -$2.9 billion, -7%▪ Most individual institutes down around 9%

▪ ~1,900 fewer competing awards▪ Success rate drops from 20.3% to 16.5%▪ Attempts to consolidate AHRQ again

▪ Select Priorities:▪ Opioids: $1.4 billion across NIH

▪ $423 million for influenza research

▪ $50 million for prematurity research

▪ $150 million for extension of Type I Diabetes research program

▪ $300 million to address facilities backlog

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

$55

NIH Budget, FY 1998 - 2021budget authority in billions of constant FY 2020 dollars

ARRA Funding Cancer NIAID

Heart Lung Blood General Med Sci NIDDK

Mental Health All Other

Source: Agency budget documents and appropriations. Adjusted for biomedical R&D inflation rate (BRDPI).© 2020 AAAS


Highlights: NSF

▪ $7.7 billion request▪ -$537 million, -6%▪ ~400 fewer research grants▪ Success rate drops from 25% to 23%

▪ With AI funding increases:▪ Will fund up to six multi-institutional

research institutes in FY21

▪ Big Ideas: +$108 million to $432 million total

▪ Convergence Accelerator support continues

▪ STEM Education Programs: -1%

▪ EPSCoR: -7%▪ Innovation Corps trimmed

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

National Science Foundation BudgetBudget Authority in billions of constant FY 2020 dollars

NSF ARRA All Other EHR MREFC

Other R&RA SBE CISE BIO

ENG GEO MPS

Source: NSF budget requests. © 2020 AAAS


Highlights: Others

▪ NASA: STEM Engagement office, Space Grant eliminated

▪ US Department of Agriculture:

▪ 41% increase for competitive grants, but reductions/eliminations for capacity grants and small grants

▪ ERS, NIFA move to Kansas City continues to go forward

▪ DHS: Reduces number of university centers of excellence from 10 to 5

▪ Veterans Research: 5% increase


What’s Next

▪ No budget resolution this year

▪ House appropriators want to move rapidly

▪ Election!

▪ Infrastructure plan? “Industries of the Future?” And coronavirus supplemental?

(Image source: Roll Call)


$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Limits on Nondefense Discretionary Spending, Current and ProposedBillions of constant 2020 dollars

Actual Caps w/ Congress Adjustments President's FY 21 Budget

Projected Baseline* Pre-Sequester Caps

Sequester Caps



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049

CBO's Long-Term Budget ProjectionsSpending by Category as a Share of GDP

Social Security Major Health Care Programs* Other Mandatory Spending

Discretionary Spending Net Interest

*Includes Medicare, Medicaid, and other spending. Based on CBO Long-Term Outlook data, June 2019. AAAS | 2019


$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

World R&D by Country / Region(millions of constant 2010 dollars adjusted for purchasing power parity)

USA

China

EU-28

OtherWorld

Japan

Source: OECD Science Indicators, August 2019 | AAAS


0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Basic Research IntensityTotal basic research as a percent of GDP

South Korea

France

Israel

United States

Japan

Taiwan

China

Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators, February 2020. © 2020 AAAS


For more info…

[email protected]

202-326-6607

http://www.aaas.org/rd

The Federal R&D Budget Outlook and... · 2020. 2. 28. · 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024...

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