Quotes on Budget Approach...Billions of Dollars 2012-2021 Discretionary Budget Authority 11 House...

House Budget Committee Democrats

Quotes on Budget Approach

Posters for Floor Debate on the FY 2012 Budget

XX


Criticism of the Republican Budget

4/26/2011


5

Washington Post: Fact-checking the Republican budget plan

The Pinocchio Test

“…the Ryan budget plan relies on dubious assertions, questionable assumptions and fishy figures…the budget presentation falls short of his claim that he is getting rid of budget gimmicks.”

Washington Post, p A8, 4/10/2011

Two Pinocchios

4/26/2011

6


No Shared Sacrifice

4/26/2011From: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

“Two-Thirds of Proposed Cuts in Ryan Plan Come from Low-Income Programs”, CBPP, 4/5/2011

Low-income program cuts………......(e.g. Medicaid, Pell Grants, food stamps, low-income housing)$2.9 trillion

Other program cuts………………$1.4 trillion

Source: “The Path to Prosperity” FY 2012 Budget ResolutionNote: Manager’s amendment would add $0.2 trillion in other cuts

7


Conservative Economists Criticize ‘Off the Deep End’ Republican Budget

“It doesn’t address in any serious or courageous way the issue of the near and medium-term deficit. I think the biggest problem is revenues. It is simply unrealistic to say that raising revenue isn’t part of the solution. It’s a measure of how far off the deep end Republicans have gone with this religious catechism about taxes.”

- David Stockman, former head of OMB under Ronald Reagan

On unemployment, Ryan plan is “implausibly optimistic.”- Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former head of CBO and economic advisor to John McCain and George W. Bush

…the plan doesn’t do anything to control health care costs, and cutting Medicaid is neither good policy, nor urgent…he notes “Medicaid should be one of the last parts of the health care budget to cut.”

- Tyler Cowen, General Director of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University

“It’s just not going to work.”- Senator Saxby Chambliss

4/26/2011

Source: www.talkingpointsmemo.com , 4/11/2011http://www.bloomberg.com, 4/11/2011

8


Debt Subject to Limit Continues to Grow In Republican Budget

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Trill

ions

of D

olla

rs

Debt Subject to Limit in House Republican Budget

9


Republican Budget Pays for Tax Cuts for Millionaires by Cutting Vital Services

$800 B

Transportation, $276 B

Education, Training, Social

Services, $223 B

Income Security, $119 B

Health, $115 B

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

Tax Cuts for the Wealthy Cuts to Vital Services

Billi

ons

of D

olla

rs

2012-2021

Discretionary Budget Authority

11


“SLASH-ONOMICS”By Anyone’s Estimate, Republicans’ spending Cuts in

H.R. 1 Would Lose Jobs, Not Create Them

-200,000

-700,000-800,000

-975,000-1,200,000

-1,000,000

-800,000

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben

Bernanke

Economist Mark Zandi

Economic Policy Institute

Center for American Progress

Jobs

4/26/2011

12

House Budget Committee Democrats 4/26/2011

Republican Budget Cuts Taxes $2.5 Trillion MORE than the Fiscal Commission

-1,619

-4,162

Commission House Republican BudgetTax Policy Changes, 2012-2021, in Billions of dollars

13


Fiscal Commission Raised $2.5 Trillion More in Revenue Than the Republican Budget

4/26/2011

$0.0$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

Commission Chairman Ryan

Trill

ions

of D

olla

rs

Sources: CBO, OMB, and the Fiscal Commission's “Moment of Truth" final report.

$2.5 Trillion

14

House Republican Budget


Historical Comparison Tables

4/26/2011


Top Tax Rate and Total Net Job Creation

3/30/2011

20.8 million jobs

created653,000 jobs lost

39.6%35%

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Net

Tot

al P

riva

te-S

ecto

r Jo

b Cr

eati

on in

Mill

ions

Top

Tax

Rate

Source: Department of Treasury and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

President Clinton President Bush

15


Bush and Republicans Leave Obama an $8 Trillion Fiscal Mess to Clean Up

4/26/2011

Bush inherits a forecasted$5.6 Trillion 10-Year Surplus

Obama inherits a forecasted$8 Trillion 10-Year Deficit

17


Top Tax Rate and Average Annual Growth

2/16/2011

3.9%Real GDP Growth 2.1%

Real GDP Growth

39.6%35%

-0.5%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Infla

tion

-Adj

uste

d Ec

onom

ic G

row

th R

ate

Top

Tax

Rate

Source: Department of Treasury and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

President Clinton President Bush

18


Economy Has Added 1.7 Million Private-Sector Jobs Since Start of 2010

(841)

-21

144

229

4865 93110

109143128

167

94

240230

-850

-650

-450

-250

-50

150

350

550

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11

Monthly change in private payrolls(thousands)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm payrolls, U.S. Department of Labor.

Bush Administration Obama Administration

19


Recovery Takes Hold as Economy Grows For a Sixth Straight Quarter

Source: BEA 3/25/2011

Perc

ent o

f civ

ilian

labo

r for

ce

-4.0%

-6.8%

-4.9%

-0.7%

1.6%

5.0%3.7%

1.7% 2.6%3.1%

08-III 08-IV 09-I 09-II 09-III 09-IV 10-I 10-II 10-III 10-IV

Ann

ualiz

ed P

erce

nt C

hang

e in

Rea

l GD

P

President Bush

2008 2009 2010

President Obama

20


Tax Issue Slides


Top Individual Tax Rates Have Fallen In the Post War Era, 1945-2011

4/26/2011

94%

35%

6.0%

1.8%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%19

45

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Real

Eco

nom

ic G

row

th

Tax

Rate

Top Individual Tax Rate

Real GDP Growth by Decade

Sources: Internal Revenue Service and the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

22


Top Corporate Tax Rates Have Fallen In the Post War Era, 1945-2011

4/26/2011

40%35%

6.0%

1.8%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%19

45

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

Real

Eco

nom

ic G

row

th

Tax

Rate

Corporate Top Tax Rate

Real Economic Growth

Sources: Internal Revenue Service and the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

23


U.S. Corporate Tax Revenues as a Share of GDP are Low by OECD Standards

4/26/2011

1.1 1.

3 1.4 1.

7 1.9

1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2

2.2 2.

4

2.4

2.4 2.5

2.5 2.

7 2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8 3.

1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7

3.7

5.4

5.9

8.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Corp

orat

e Re

venu

es a

s a

Perc

ent o

f GD

P

Source: OECD, 2010.

25


GENERAL ELECTRIC Reported $14.2 Billion in Profits… and Received a $3.2 Billion Tax Refund

$14.2

$3.2

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

$20

GE's Worldwide After-Tax Income

Billi

ons

of D

olla

rs

Tax Refund

Corporate Profits

4/26/2011

Source: New York Times, March 24, 2011, “G.E.’s Strategies Let It Avoid Taxes Altogether” by David Kocieniewski

$17.4 Billion

26


Tax Expenditures Equal Entire Discretionary Budget

Security

Individual

Non-Security

Corporate

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Discretionary Spending FY11 Tax Expenditures FY11

In B

illio

ns o

f Dol

lars

$1.077 Trillion $1.068 Trillion

Sources: Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Budget Office

27


Health Care Slides and Quotes


Affordable Care Act Is Entitlement Reform; Bends Medicare Cost Curve

Total Medicare Spending as a Percent of GDP

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Pre-ACA

Post-ACA

4/26/2011

28

Source: 2009 and 2010 Medicare Trustees Reports


ACA is Entitlement Reform

4/26/2011

“Repealing the Affordable Care Act would cause needless economic harm and would set back efforts to create a more disciplined and more effective health care system…”

Letter Signed by Alice Rivlin and other economists to the HBC January 6, 2011

“I do believe that almost every idea about improving quality and reducing cost was incorporated in some way, usually as a pilot program, into the Affordable Care Act, and we need to fund it …”

“I strongly believe that the Affordable Care Act has the potential to bend the cost curve.”

Alice Rivlin, March 17, 2011

29


Republican Budget Cuts Taxes for Wealthy, Dismantles Medicaid

4/26/2011

$800

-$771

-$1,000-$800-$600-$400-$200

$0$200$400$600$800

$1,000Tax Cuts for Wealthy

Dismantling Medicaid

Effect on deficit 2012-2021, in billions

30


“A major feature of the Ryan plan is a drastic reform of Medicare and Medicaid - but reform with deep cuts and deeper than, I think, many of us would feel were realistic or humane.”

-Alice Rivlin, April 5, 2011

Republican Medicare and Medicaid Cuts Unrealistic and Inhumane

32


Rivlin Opposes Republican Health Proposal

4/26/2011

“We talked fairly recently and…I said I don’t actually support the form in which he put it in the budget.”

“We had worked together but the version that’s in the budget resolution is not one that I would subscribe to.”

- Alice Rivlin, Politico, April, 5 2011

33

34A

The Republican budget plan relies on massive cuts to Medicare, including a ration program in which seniors would use vouchers of diminishing value.

According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the Republican budget, “Ends Guaranteed Medicare.”


Issue Specific Slides

Big oil, green jobs, education, etc.

4/26/2011


“Big 5” Oil Company Profits 2001-2010

4/26/2011

-$5.0

$45.0

$95.0

$145.0

$195.0

$245.0

$295.0

$345.0

Exxon Chevron Conoco Phillips

Shell BP

Billi

ons

of D

olla

rs

2001-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

$310

$152

$95

$207

$138

Source: http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2011/01/oil_lust.html

35


“Big 5” Oil Company CEO Salaries

4/26/2011

$0.0$10.0$20.0$30.0$40.0$50.0$60.0$70.0$80.0$90.0

$100.0

2006 2007 2008 2009

Mill

ions

of D

olla

rs

Exxon Chevron Conoco Phillips Shell BP

$92.5

$65.9

$78.0

$66.0

Source: www.morningstar.com

36


Green Energy Generates 3.2 Times More U.S. Jobs than Fossil Fuels

5.3 Jobs

16.7 Jobs

Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

Investments

Job Creation from $1 million in Spending

Source: Input-Output tables of the U.S. Commerce Department, as compiled by Center for American Progress

37


U.S. Students Are Not Globally Competitive

4/26/2011

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

Average = 496

Math Scores for 15-Year-Olds in OECD Countries

38


When Education Matters Most

4/26/2011

Unemployment rates by educational attainment for October 2009

15.3

11.2

8.9

4.8

10.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Less Than High School

High School Only Some College Bachelor's Degree All

Une

mpl

oym

ent

Rate

(%)

Peakunemploymentrate from thisrecession

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

39


Additional Charts

4/26/2011


Fantasy: Heritage Foundation Predicts Bush 2001 Tax Cuts Will Create 1.4 Million Jobs by 2008

Reality: Payrolls Shrunk by 8.7 Million by 2008

4/11/2011

26 325 519 778 1,032 1,203 1,292 1,366

-1,591

-4,771

-6,730-7,149

-6,531

-5,686 -5,898

-8,650-10,000

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Total Employment in Thousands, Difference from Baseline Projection

Heritage Actual

Source: Heritage (2001) and Center for American Progress’s calculation of BLS data.

42


Household Incomes fall for the First Time During Bush Years

4/26/2011

1.8%

0.6%

1.3%

0.8%

-0.1%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Ave

rage

Ann

ual G

row

th

Economic cycles (peak-to-peak)

Peak-to-peak household income growth during the past five economic cycles (on an annualized basis)

Source: Census Bureau Historical Income Statistics 2008.

43


Senior Citizens’ Health Costs Skyrocket Under Republican Budget

$12,500

$9,750

$8,600

$8,000

$9,150

$20,700

$6,150

$12,500

Government's Share Beneficiary's Share

Health care spending for a typical 65-year-old in 2022, in dollars

Health care spending for a typical 65-year-old in 2030, in dollars

4/26/2011

Republican Budget

Republican Budget

Current Medicare

Current Medicare

Source: Based on CBO analysis 4/5/11

44


Mandatory Spending in the Republican Budget

Health Care Programs

Health Care Programs

Social Security Social Security

All Other

All Other

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2050

Perc

ent o

f GD

P

Source: CBO

45


2010 Spending Detail

Defense Discretionary

Nondefense Discretionary

Other Mandatory

All Other

Mandatory Health Care

Programs

Social Security

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 All Other

Perc

ent o

f GD

P

Source: CBO

46


Defense Discretionary

4.7%

Nondefense Discretionary

4.6%

Other Mandatory

2.9%

All Other3.5%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2050

Perc

ent o

f GD

PRepublican Long-Term Spending Plan Not Credible

By 2050, “All Other” Category Smaller Than Current Defense Levels

Source: CBO

47

All Other


Seniors and Disabled Individuals RepresentTwo-Thirds of Medicaid Spending

Medicaid Expenditures by Enrollment Group, 2007

Children: 20%

Seniors and Disabled: 67%

Adults: 12%

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation

48


Affordable Care Act Helps Seniors In Doughnut Hole Save Thousands of Dollars

$520 $560 $632 $732 $834

$952 $1,111

$1,287 $1,485

$1,724

$0$200$400$600$800

$1,000$1,200$1,400$1,600$1,800$2,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Average Part D Out-of-Pocket Savings for Medicare Beneficiaries With High Prescription Drug Costs

4/26/2011Source: Department of Health and Human Services

49


Our National Security Requires That We Address Our Debt

“The most significant threat to our national security is our debt.”

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen

4/26/2011

50


Republicans Want More Tax Cuts for These “Small Businesses”…

• Wall Street Investment House KKR• Big 4 Accounting Firm

PricewaterhouseCoopers• Fortune 100 Pipeline Co. Enterprise GP

Holdings

… And They Want the Middle Class to Pick up the Tab

4/26/2011

51


Republicans Don’t Want to Tell You Who They Count as “Small Businesses”

• Just under 3% of taxpayers (750,000) with net positive business income fall in the top two tax brackets.

• Many such businesses are hardly “small”: In 2005, 12,862 S Corps and 6,658 partnerships grossed more than $50 million.

Joint Committee on Taxation, July 14, 2010

4/26/2011

52


Republicans End Medicare and Gut Services... To Get to the Same Place as

Returning to Clinton-Era Tax Rates

Republican Budget Current Law

10-Y

ear

Def

icit

s $5.09 Trillion$5.47 Trillion

4/26/2011

52

(with President’s War Costs)


Republican Budget is not a Balanced Approach to Deficit Reduction

“…We are concerned that it falls short of the balanced, comprehensive approach needed to achieve the broad bipartisan agreement necessary to enact a responsible plan.”

“Bowles, Simpson react to Republican budget proposal”, March 30, 2011 Press Release

4/26/2011

1


Defense Spending Must be On the Table

4/26/2011

“Anybody who says you can't save money at the Pentagon has never been to the Pentagon. We can save money on defense and if we Republicans don't propose saving money on defense, we'll have no credibility on anything else.”

Gov. Haley Barbour, Politico, March 15, 2011

2


Fiscal Circumstances Require Us to Restrain Defense Spending

4/26/2011

“During the course of our Task Force’s work, we confronted the question of whether the military must sacrifice also. We understand that making cuts in this area is hard, but our fiscal circumstances require us to restrain defense spending growth and demand more efficiency from our military.”

- Former Sen. Pete Domenici, 2/24/2011

3


President Reagan’s Budget Director says, “Millionaire Tax Cuts Unconscionable”

“I find it unconscionable that the Republican leadership, faced with a$1.5 trillion deficit, could possibly believe that good public policy is to maintain tax cuts for the top 2 percent…”

-David StockmanAugust 7, 2010

4

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