The ESPON Scientific Platform

Data, tools and scientific innovation

Moritz Lennert - IGEAT - ULB

Overview• Expressionism or realism: Using regional data

– The vast treasures of the ESPON Database– Limits to regional data: MAUP and disrupted time series– Possible solution for the future: Long-Term Database and

cartographic techniques– From data to messages: policy indicators

• Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyone– ESPON DB and Data Navigator– WebGIS– HyperAtlas

• Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial research– Models to analyse the current situation– Models to simulate and forecast the future– A general model for territorial impact assessment

• Looking ahead: Prospective thinking• Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?

Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataThe vast treasures of the ESPON Database

• covers 29 countries 29 countries !!!

Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataLimits to regional data: Disrupted time series and MAUP

2) Modifiable Area Unit Problem:Results of spatial analyses depend on definition of studied units

An illustration of MAUP: the variation of Urban-Rural Typology at different levels of territorial aggregation (NUTS 2 and NUTS 3) (Project 3.4.3

Proposals:• new hierarchies of territorial division for research and strategic policy making

• development of interactive and dynamic cartographic methods• development of multiscalar methods of analysis

1) Time series interrupted by change in data and region definitions

Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataPossible solution for the future I: Long-Term Database

Hierarchy of geographic entities, names

Definitions ofbasic stock indicators (population, area, GDP)

Definitions and formulas of complex indicators (pop. density, GDP/cap)

The actual data

Collection of estimation methods for missing data

Expert system for choice of estimation method

Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataPossible solution for the future II: Innovative cartography

Expressionism or realism: Using regional dataFrom data to messages: policy indicators

Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyoneESPON DB and Data Navigator

Do It Yourself: ESPON tools for everyoneHyperAtlas and WebGIS

• ESPON WebGis: Mapping the ESPON database online

• ESPON HyperAtlas: Innovative multiscalar cartography on your desktop

Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial researchModels to analyse the state of the system

• Mostly pre-existing models, adapted to the specific needs of ESPON research

• Most models concern transport theme: accessibility, flows, pollution, infrastructures, etc

• Provide complex indicators

• Examples: ICON index, various accessibility measures, logistic model of IT diffusal, etc.

• Used for the analysis of the situation of the modelled system in the present or past

Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial researchModels to simulate and forecast the future

• deal with the future, based on different assumptions => forecast and impact assessment

• MAcro-economic, Sectoral, Social and Territorial (MASST) model

• Existing models used: SASI, CGEurope, STIMA, CAPRI, etc

• Some ESPON babies:

• Know Trans-European Networks (KTEN/K10)• Demographic Cohort-Survial model

• RESSET (accessibility and economic development)

Experiments in vitro: Modelling techniques for territorial researchA general model for territorial impact assessment

Multicriteria Model with two main layers:

1) General assessment

GA = Σc θc . PIMc

2) Territorial assessment

TIMr = Σc θc . Sr,c . (PIMc . PIr ). Par

r = regionSr,c = sensitivity of region r to criterion cPI = policy intensityPA = policy applicability

c = criterionθc = weightPIM = general impact

Looking ahead: Prospective thinking

• Policy making = future-oriented => Applied scientific results have to respond to this need

• Territorial development = very long-term

• Much of what will happen is out of reach for « classical » (quantitative) scientific methods

• ESPON provides prospective thinking in the form of the scenarios

• Thinking beyond the verifiable and imagining the possible in scientifically informed creative prospective research

• Permanent process depending on policy goals and general evolutions

Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?

• If we want evidenced-based policy, we need solid evidence• Knowledge grows through controversial discussion

• ESPON seminars always very polite:

Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?

• Can be a frustrating experience for all sides

• We just had the first experience of « peer review » in ESPON

• Sometimes it feels like this:

Friendly discussions: Scientific peer review in ESPON ?

• But it advances everyone's knowledge

• Have a great seminar !

• So, let's dare some more controversy: