The Role of Internal Communication in the Rolling Forecast Process
The Environmental Forecast Process
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The Environmental Forecast Process Observations Analysis Model Forecast Post-processed Model Data Forecaster User (public, industry…) Numerical Forecast System Data Assimilation Observations , Analysis and Modeling Systems are now Linked Has implication s for how to apply CAL/VAL to future instruments
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The Environmental Forecast Process. Observations , Analysis and Modeling Systems are now Linked. Observations. Data Assimilation. Has implications for how to apply CAL/VAL to future instruments. Analysis. Model Forecast. Numerical Forecast System. Post-processed Model Data. Forecaster. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of The Environmental Forecast Process
The Environmental Forecast Process
Observations
Analysis
Model Forecast
Post-processed Model Data
Forecaster
User (public, industry…)
NumericalForecastSystem
Data Assimilation
Observations , Analysis and Modeling Systems are now Linked
Has implications for how to apply CAL/VAL to future instruments
Land• NCEP Land Data Assimilation System uses
– Global precipitation fields from CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP)
• uses SSM/I (passive microwave - scattering and emission) & high temporal resolution IR data from geostationary satellites
– Daily NESDIS IMS 4km snow cover product• incorporates a wide variety of satellite imagery (AVHRR, GOES, SSMI, etc.)
as well as derived mapped products (USAF Snow/Ice Analysis, AMSU, etc.) and surface observations.
– Hourly 0.5 deg surface solar insolation from GOES– Fixed fields - AVHR-based 1km global vegetation type and monthly
MODIS-based albedo (being tested)• Testing new products
– Weekly global green vegetation fraction– GOES-based hourly 0.5 deg land surface
temperatures– AMSR-E soil moisture
Ice
• The NCEP sea ice analysis fields are produced from a passive microwave sensor (SSMI).
• Emisivity over snow and ice is a critical issue
Sept. 27,
2007
Satellite(AVHRR, JASON, QuikSCAT)
In situ(ARGO, Buoys, Ships)
OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION
RT-OFS-GODAENOPPEMC
CFS-GODASNCO/ODA
EMC NOPP-JPL (ECCO)
OPNL OCEAN FORECASTS
Climate Forecast System Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
Data Cutoff
CFS: 2 week data cutoff RTOFS: 24 hour data cutoff
Shared history, coding, and data
processing
MOM-3 MOM-4 HOME HYCOM HOME
NASA-NOAA-DODJCSDA
AMSR, GOES,AIRS, JASON, WindSat,
MODISAdvanced
ODA Techniques
Observations
CLIMATE FORECAST OCEAN FORECAST
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/ofs/
Ocean
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
Version 3.0 April 9, 2004
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RTOFS
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GFSHUR
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Current (2007)
GENS/NAEFS
Current - 2007
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems
Forces for Change• Increasing emphasis on ensemble approaches
– Multi-model ensembles• SREF• NAEFS• Climate Forecast System
• Entering the NPOESS era– More rapid access to
hyperspectral data– GPS soundings– Higher resolution surface
radiance data• All models run within ESMF
– Models run concurrently – Hybrid vertical coordinate– Coupled– Spanning all scales
• Operational Earth System model – more explicit hydro, climate and ecosystems applications
Model Region 1
Model Region 2
Global/Regional Model Domain
ESMF-based System
CFSMFS
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems
Version 3.0 April 9, 2004
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WAV
CFS & MFS
GENS/NAEFSGFS
Next Generation PrototypePhase 4 - 2015
Regional
Rap Refresh
Global
HURSREF
Reforecast
Hydro / NIDIS/FF
Hydro
NAM
GDAS
RDAS
RTOFS RTOFSAQ
NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems
AQ
Computing factor: 81
