Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

16
Forecastin Forecastin g g

Transcript of Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

Page 1: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

ForecastingForecasting

Page 2: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

Planning Forecast

Customer

ProductionProcess

FinishedGoods

Inputs

Page 3: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

Forecasting

Marketing: forecasts sales for new and

existing products.

Production: uses sales forecasts to plan

production and operations; sometimes

involved in generating sales forecasts.

Page 4: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

Characteristics of Forecasts

They are usually wrong A good forecast is usually more than a single

number Aggregate forecast are more accurate The longer the forecasting horizon, the less

accurate the forecasts will be Forecasts should not be used to the exclusion

of known information

Page 5: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

Forecasting Horizon

Short term(inventory management, production plans..)

Intermediate term(sales patterns for product families..)

Long term(long term planning of capacity needs)

Page 6: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

Forecasting Techniques

JudgmentalModels

Time SeriesMethods Causal Methods

ForecastingTechnique

DelphiMethod

MovingAverage

ExponentialSmoothing

RegressionAnalysis

SeasonalityModels

Page 7: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

Types of forecasting Methods

Subjective methodsFREE HAND METHOD

Objective methodsSEMI AVERAGE

EVEN DATA ODD DATA

LEAST SQUARETREND MOMENT

Page 8: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

FREE HAND METHOD

Page 9: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

SEMI AVERAGEEVEN DATA

Page 10: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

Y = a + bX

No. Year

Sales (Y-axis) Base time

(X-axis)

1 1988 1850 0 ∑ 1-6 = 11520

2 1989 1800 1 Y1 1920

3 1990 1900 2 X1 2.5

4 1991 2000 3

5 1992 1950 4

6 1993 2020 5 a= 3514.81 and b= 291.72

7 1994 1980 6 ∑ 7-12 = 11979

8 1995 1960 7 Y2 1996.5

9 1996 2000 8 X2 8.5

10 1997 2200 9

11 1998 2240 10

12 1999 2220 11

Page 11: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

SEMI AVERAGEODD DATA

Page 12: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

No. Year

Sales (Y-axis) Base time

(X-axis)

1 1988 1850 0 ∑ 1-5 = 9500

2 1989 1800 1 Y1 1900

3 1990 1900 2 X1 2

4 1991 2000 3

5 1992 1950 4

6 1993 2020 5 a= 1868 and b= 16

7 1994 1980 6 ∑ 7-11 = 9980

8 1995 1960 7 Y2 1996

9 1996 2000 8 X2 8

10 1997 2200 9

11 1998 2240 10

Y = a + bX

Page 13: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

TREND MOMENT METHOD

Page 14: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.
Page 15: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

LEAST SQUARE METHOD

Page 16: Forecasting. Planning Forecast Customer Production Process Finished Goods Inputs.

EVEN DATA CASE


Facilitating land use forecasting in planning agencies · PDF fileFacilitating land use forecasting in planning ... Microdoft Excel TELUM-RES ... backwards or forward USER Data Inputs

Facilitating land use forecasting in planning agencies · PDF fileFacilitating land use forecasting in planning ... Microdoft Excel TELUM-RES ... backwards or forward USER Data Inputs

Hannan Forensic Pathology Finished Alhamdulillah Finished

Hannan Forensic Pathology Finished Alhamdulillah Finished

Strategic management of component obsolescence using ... · Strategic management of DMSMS means using DMSMS data, logistics management inputs, technology forecasting, and business

Strategic management of component obsolescence using ... · Strategic management of DMSMS means using DMSMS data, logistics management inputs, technology forecasting, and business

QAD Training MWUG Slides - Logan Consulting Slides-QAD... · QAD Training MWUG Slides September 2015 ... Contract Assembly Finished Packaging ... Costing Forecasting Variances

QAD Training MWUG Slides - Logan Consulting Slides-QAD... · QAD Training MWUG Slides September 2015 ... Contract Assembly Finished Packaging ... Costing Forecasting Variances

GSTN Outreach & Capability Building Initiatives · Payment of tax on inputs held in stock or in semi-finished goods or in finished goods and capital goods, under sub-section (4) of

GSTN Outreach & Capability Building Initiatives · Payment of tax on inputs held in stock or in semi-finished goods or in finished goods and capital goods, under sub-section (4) of

Managing for Quality and Competitiveness - · PDF fileSpecify some techniques managers may use to manage the logistics of transforming inputs into finished products

Managing for Quality and Competitiveness - · PDF fileSpecify some techniques managers may use to manage the logistics of transforming inputs into finished products

Forecasting Chapter 6. Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting.

Forecasting Chapter 6. Economic Forecasting Economic Forecasting.

LECTURE NOTES Course No. AECO 141 Principles of Agricultural Economics · 2019. 9. 5. · 3 finished goods, or subassemblies) and intangible inputs (ideas, information, know -how)

LECTURE NOTES Course No. AECO 141 Principles of Agricultural Economics · 2019. 9. 5. · 3 finished goods, or subassemblies) and intangible inputs (ideas, information, know -how)

PETROCHEMICALS FINISHED AND SEMI FINISHED PRODUCTS ...

PETROCHEMICALS FINISHED AND SEMI FINISHED PRODUCTS ...

Introduction to Sales Forecasting Sales Forecasting ... · PDF fileIntroduction to Sales Forecasting ... Sales Forecasting ... budgeting and risk management. Accurate sales forecasting

Introduction to Sales Forecasting Sales Forecasting ... · PDF fileIntroduction to Sales Forecasting ... Sales Forecasting ... budgeting and risk management. Accurate sales forecasting

OPERATION/PRODUCTION The processes and methods used to transform tangible inputs (raw materials, semi-finished goods, subassemblies) and intangible inputs.

OPERATION/PRODUCTION The processes and methods used to transform tangible inputs (raw materials, semi-finished goods, subassemblies) and intangible inputs.

Brochure · 2020. 8. 27. · Inputs already in the form of a finished product, sub-contracting of core activities, accessories to the main product, Transport or Catering services

Brochure · 2020. 8. 27. · Inputs already in the form of a finished product, sub-contracting of core activities, accessories to the main product, Transport or Catering services

The AFD Carbon Footprint Tool for projects · The AFD Carbon Footprint Tool for projects ... the Tool counts GHG emissions from air travel, ... inputs and/or finished products by

The AFD Carbon Footprint Tool for projects · The AFD Carbon Footprint Tool for projects ... the Tool counts GHG emissions from air travel, ... inputs and/or finished products by

HFT 3431 Chapter 9 Forecasting Methods Forecasting How Important Is Forecasting?How Important Is Forecasting? Is Forecasting Only Financial?Is Forecasting.

HFT 3431 Chapter 9 Forecasting Methods Forecasting How Important Is Forecasting?How Important Is Forecasting? Is Forecasting Only Financial?Is Forecasting.

When You’re Finished Changing, You’re Finished€¦ · finished changing, you’re finished.” At Penn Arts and Sciences, we certainly haven’t finished changing. As we look

When You’re Finished Changing, You’re Finished€¦ · finished changing, you’re finished.” At Penn Arts and Sciences, we certainly haven’t finished changing. As we look

Forecasting Workshop: Intermittent Demand Forecasting · Forecasting Workshop: Intermittent Demand Forecasting ... [s Forecasting Case-Study rated as 4*. ... major packages have implemented

Forecasting Workshop: Intermittent Demand Forecasting · Forecasting Workshop: Intermittent Demand Forecasting ... [s Forecasting Case-Study rated as 4*. ... major packages have implemented

MGT3303 Michel Leseure Forecasting –Introduction to forecasting –Do you need a forecasting system? –Forecasting models –Qualitative judgments in forecasting.

MGT3303 Michel Leseure Forecasting –Introduction to forecasting –Do you need a forecasting system? –Forecasting models –Qualitative judgments in forecasting.

Input Tax Credit - GST Law India€¦ · credit of input tax in respect of inputs which are - o held in stock, and o inputs contained in semi-finished or finished goods held in stock

Input Tax Credit - GST Law India€¦ · credit of input tax in respect of inputs which are - o held in stock, and o inputs contained in semi-finished or finished goods held in stock

A6MARR Forecasting Note v1.1 - SEMMMS€¦ · Title of Document A6MARR Forecasting Note Type ... subsequently used to provide demand forecasts for A6MARR, as well as inputs for ...

A6MARR Forecasting Note v1.1 - SEMMMS€¦ · Title of Document A6MARR Forecasting Note Type ... subsequently used to provide demand forecasts for A6MARR, as well as inputs for ...

GSAG FINISHED DRAFT FINISHED DRAFT

GSAG FINISHED DRAFT FINISHED DRAFT