The energy report - 100% renewable energy by 2050 (WWF/2011)

8/7/2019 The energy report - 100% renewable energy by 2050 (WWF/2011)

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THE ENERGY R100% RENEWABLE ENERG

THIS REPORT

HAS BEEN

PRODUCED IN

COLLABORATION

WITH:

REPORTINT

2011

OMAAMO


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Front cover photo: Wild Wonders of Europe / Inaki Relanzon / WWF

WWFWWF is one of the worlds largest and most experiencedindependent conservation organizations, with over 5 millionsupporters and a global Network active in more than 100countries.WWFs mission is to stop the degradation of the planetsnatural environment and to build a future in which humanslive in harmony with nature, by conserving the worlds bio-logical diversity, ensuring that the use of renewable naturalresources is sustainable, and promoting the reduction of pollution and wasteful consumption.

ECOFYSEstablished in 1984 with the mission of achieving asustainable energy supply for everyone, Ecofys has becomea leader in energy saving, sustainable energy solutions and

climate policies. The unique synergy between our eldsof competence is the key to this success. We create smart,effective, practical and sustainable solutions for and with ourclients.

OMAThe Of ce for Metropolitan Architecture (OMA) is aleading international partnership practicing contemporary architecture, urbanism, and cultural analysis. Thecounterpart to OMAs architectural practice is the companysresearch-based think tank, AMO. While OMA remainsdedicated to the realization of buildings and masterplans, AMO operates in areas beyond the boundaries of architecture and urbanism such as media, politics, sociology,technology, energy, fashion, publishing and graphic design.

WWF InternationalAvenue du Mont-Blanc1196 GlandSwitzerlandwww.panda.org

EcofysP.O. Box 84083503 RK UtrechtThe Netherlands

www.ecofys.com

OMA Heer Bokelweg 1493032 AD RotterdamThe Netherlandswww.oma.eu

ISBN 978-2-940443-26-0

This report was made possible by thegenerous support of ENECO.


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3WWF The Energy Report Page

CONTRIBUTORSEditor in Chief: Stephan SingerTechnical Editor: Jean-Philippe DenruyterPrincipal Writer Part 1: Barney Jeffries

Editorial Team Part 1: Owen Gibbons, Ellen Hendrix, MartinHiller, Richard McLellan, Donald Pols

With special thanks for review and contributions from:Keith Allott, Jason Anderson, Bryn Baker, Jessica Battle,Esther Blom, Kellie Caught, Kirsty Clough, Keya Chatterjee,Thomas Duveau, Wendy Elliott, Magnus Emfel, Lynn Englum,Mariangiola Fabbri, Ian Gray, Bart Geneen, Inna Gritsevich,Johan van de Gronden, May Guerraoui, Piers Hart, JoergHartmann, Patrick Hofstetter, Richard Holland, Yanli Hou,Nora Ibrahim, Andrea Kaszewski, Sampsa Kiianmaa, Alexey Kokorin, Li Lifeng, Pete Lockley, Paul Maassen, Yosuke Masako,David McLaughlin, Lszl Mth, Elisabeth McLellan, Martin

von Mirbach, Kevin Ogorzalek, Stuart Orr, Mireille Perrin,Duncan Pollard, Voahirana Randriambola, Georg Rast, PeterRoberntz, Rafael Senga, Shirish Sinha, Gerald Steindlegger, RodTaylor, Ivan Valencia, Arianna Vitali, Heikki Willstedt, Mattiasde Woul, Richard Worthington, Naoyuki YamagishiStefan Henningson Partner organizations Ecofys (Part 2)Principal Writers: Yvonne Deng, Stijn Cornelissen, SebastianKlausPrincipal Reviewers: Kees van der Leun, Bart Wesselink,Kornelis Blok

(See complete list of contributing authors, reviewers andadvising experts on page 91 Part 2.)

The OMA-AMO team was led by PartnerReinier de Graaf and Associate Laura BairdTeam: Tanner Merkeley, Federico DAmicoVilhelm Christensen, Amelia McPhee, Tim Cheung,Dicle Uzunyayla


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CONTENTS10 Recommendations for a100% Renewable Energy Future 8

PART 1 Introduction 11A renewable energy future: why we need it 13Energy facts we have to face 13100% possible 23The Ecofys scenario in a nutshell 24The energy mix 29The challenges ahead 43 Energy conservation 44 Electri cation 51 Equity 56 Land and sea use 60 Lifestyle 66

Finance 72 Innovation 78 The future is in your hands 84

PART 2The Ecofys energy scenario 87Executive summary 92Introduction 103Approach 107Demand 115Supply Renewable energy (excl. bioenergy) 139Supply Sustainable bioenergy 157Investments and savings 192Policy considerations 217Conclusions 229

APPENDICES 231

REFERENCES 242

GLOSSARY 252


F r i t z P l k i ng / WWF


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Map 1: A new perspective on

the world - looking towards2050. Global GIS Database:Complete GlobaL Set, 2002 AMO



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By 2050, we could get all the energy weneed from renewable sources. This report shows that such a transition is not onlypossible but also cost-effective, providingenergy that is affordable for all andproducing it in ways that can be sustainedby the global economy and the planet.The transition will present significant challenges, but I hope this report willinspire governments and business to cometo grips with those challenges and, at thesame time, to move boldly to bring therenewable economy into reality. There isnothing more important to our ability tocreate a sustainable future.James P. LeapeDirector GeneralWWF International



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2. GRIDS:Share and exchange clean energythrough grids and trade, making the best use ofsustainable energy resources in different areas.

3.

ACCESS:End energy poverty: provide cleanelectricity and promote sustainable practices, such asefficient cook stoves, to everyone in developing countries.

4. MONEY:Invest in renewable, clean energy and energy-efficient products

5. FOOD:Stop food waste. Choose food that is sourced in an efficient and sustainableway to free up land for nature, sustainable forestry and biofuel production. Everyone has anequal right to healthy levels of protein in their diet for this to happen, wealthier peopleneed to eat less meat.

1.CLEAN ENERGY:Promote only the most efficient products.Develop existing and new renewable energy sources to provideenough clean energy for all by 2050.

10 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR A 100% RENEWABLE E


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6. MATERIALS:Reduce, re-use, recycle tominimize waste and save energy. Develop durablematerials. And avoid things we dont need.7.

TRANSPORT:Provide incentives to encourage greater use ofpublic transport, and to reduce the distances people and goods travel.Promote electrification wherever possible, and support research intohydrogen and other alternative fuels for shipping and aviation.

8.

TECHNOLOGY:Develop national, bilateral and multilateralaction plans to promote research and development in energyefficiency and renewable energy.

9. SUSTAINABILITY:Develop and enforce strict sustainability criteria that ensure renewable energy iscompatible with environmental and development goals.

10. AGREEMENTS:Support ambitious climate and energy agreements toprovide global guidance and promote global cooperation on renewable energyand efficiency efforts.

RECOMMENDATIONPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

Mar t i n Har v ey / WWF -C anon


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WWF HAS A VISIONOF A WORLD THATIS POWERED BY 100PER CENT RENEWABLEENERGY SOURCES BYTHE MIDDLE OF THISCENTURY


NA S A


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INTRODUCTIONPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

100 PER CENT RENEWABLE

ENERGY BY 2050WWF has a vision of a world that ispowered by 100 per cent renewable energy sources by the middle of this century.Unless we make this transition, theworld is most unlikely to avoid predictedescalating impacts of climate change.

But is it possible to achieve 100 per centrenewable energy supplies for everyoneon the planet by 2050? WWF calledupon the expertise of respected energy consultancy Ecofys to provide an answerto this question. In response, Ecofys hasproduced a bold and ambitious scenario -which demonstrates that it is technically possible to achieve almost 100 per centrenewable energy sources within the nextfour decades. The ambitious outcomesof this scenario, along with all of theassumptions, opportunities, detailed dataand sources, are presented as Part 2 of thisreport.

The Ecofys scenario raises anumber of signi cant issues andchallenges. The Energy Reportinvestigates the most critically important political, economic,environmental and social choicesand challenges and encouragestheir further debate.

How are we going to provide forall of the worlds future needs,on energy, food, bre, water andothers, without running intosuch huge issues as: con ictingdemands on land/wateravailability and use; rising, andin some cases, unsustainableconsumption of commodities;nuclear waste; and regionally appropriate and adequateenergy mixes?

The world needs toseriously considerwhat will be requiredto transition to asustainable energy future, and to ndsolutions to thedilemmas raised inthis report. Answeringthese challenges - thesolutions to the energy needs of current andfuture generations is one of the mostimportant, challengingand urgent politicaltasks ahead.


Figure 1Evolution of energy supply in the Energy Scenario,showing the key developments.Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010.


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1.4 BILLIONPEOPLE HAVENO ACCESS

TO RELIABLEELECTRICITY


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A RENEWABLEENERGY FUTURE:WHY WE NEED ITSwitching to renewableenergy isnt just thebest choice. Its ouronly option.The way we produce and useenergy today is not sustainable.

Our main fossil fuel sources oil,coal and gas are nite naturalresources, and we are depletingthem at a rapid rate. Furthermorethey are the main contributors toclimate change, and the race tothe last cheap fossil resourcesevokes disasters for the naturalenvironment as seen recently in the case of the BP oil spillin the Gulf of Mexico. In thedeveloping world, regional andlocal deserti cation is caused by depletion of fuelwood and otherbiomass sources that are oftenused very inef ciently causingsubstantive in-door pollutionand millions of deaths annually.A fully sustainable renewablepower supply is the only way we can secure energy for all andavoid environmental catastrophe.

ENERGY FACTS WEHAVE TO FACE1.4 billion people haveno access to reliableelectricity 1.While most of us take energy forgranted as a basic right, a fth of the worlds population still hasno access to reliable electricity drastically reducing their chancesof getting an education andearning a living. As energy pricesincrease, the worlds poor willcontinue to be excluded.

At the same time, morethan 2.7 billion peopleare dependent ontraditional bioenergy (mainly from wood,crop residues andanimal dung) as theirmain source of cookingand heating fuel 2 .This is often harvestedunsustainably,causing soil erosionand increasing therisk of ooding, aswell as threateningbiodiversity and addingto greenhouse gasemissions. Traditionalstoves are also asigni cant healthproblem: the WorldHealth Organization

(WHO) estimates that2.5 million womenand young children dieprematurely each yearfrom inhaling theirfumes 3. With many developing societiesbecoming increasingly urban, air quality in cities will declinefurther.

Finite and increasingly expensive fossil fuelsare not the answer fordeveloping countries.But renewable energy sources offer thepotential to transformthe quality of life andimprove the economicprospects of billions.

1. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO)2010, Paris2. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO)2010, Paris.3. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Magazines/Bulletin/Bull442/44204002429.pdf


RENEWABLE ENERGY FUPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

C at Hol l oway / WWF -C anon


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Figure 2: World oil production by typehttp://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/key_graphs.pdf

OIL AND GAS ARERUNNING OUTSupplies of cheap, conventional oil and gasare declining while our energy demandscontinue to increase. It is clear that ourreliance on fossil fuels cannot continueinde nitely. With the worlds populationprojected to increase to over nine billionover the next 40 years, business-as-usualis not an option.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) 4 , production from known oiland gas reserves will fall by around 40-60per cent by 2030. Yet the developed worldsthirst for energy is unabated, while demandis rocketing in emerging economies, suchas China, India and Brazil. If everyonein the world used oil at the same rate asthe average Saudi, Singaporean or U.S.resident, the worlds proven oil reserveswould be used up in less than 10 years 5.Competition for fossil fuel resources isa source of international tension, andpotentially con ict.

Energy companies areincreasingly looking to ll thegap with unconventional sourcesof oil and gas, such as shale gas,

oil from deep water platformslike BPs Deepwater Horizon,or the Canadian tar sands. Butthese come at an unprecedentedcost and not just in economicterms. Many reserves are locatedin some of the worlds mostpristine places such as tropicalrainforests and the Arctic thatare vital for biodiversity and theecosystem services that we alldepend on, from freshwater to ahealthy atmosphere. Extractingthem is dif cult and dangerous,and costly to businesses,communities and economieswhen things go wrong.

Processing and usingunconventional fossilsources produceslarge quantities of greenhouse gasses andchemical pollution,and puts unsustainabledemands on ourfreshwater resources,with severe impactson biodiversity andecosystem services.

4. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO),2009, Paris.5. Per capita oil consumption in the U.S.and Canada is about 3 tons annually,in Saudi Arabia about 5 tons and inSingapore 10 tons. Proven oil reservesare estimated at about 205 billion tonsin 2010 (BP, Statistical Review, 2010)

*Proven oil reserves are estimated 1,349billion barrels. Oil consumption in the

U. S. 18.86 million barrels per day.World population is 6.9 billion.

IF EVERYONECONSUMED ASMUCH ENERGY

AS THE AVERAGESINGAPOREANAND U.S.RESIDENT, THEWORLDS OILRESERVES WOULBE DEPLETED IN9 YEARS*



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OIL AND GAS ARE RUNNING OUTPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

Map 2: Oil Claims in Africa : P. Hearn, Jr., T. Hare, et. al., Global GIS Database: Complete Global Set, 2002 AMO


FOSSIL FUESOURCING


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CLIMATE CHANGEIS ALREADY A REALITYEven if fossil fuel supplies were in nite, wewould have another compelling reason foran urgent switch to renewableenergy: climate change. Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are already affected by water shortages, crop failures,tropical diseases, ooding and extremeweather events conditions that arelikely to be made worse by increasingconcentrations of greenhouse gasses in theEarths atmosphere. The WHO estimatesthat climate change is already causingmore than 150,000 deaths a year 6.

Global warming threatens the fragilebalance of our planets ecosystems, andcould consign a quarter of all speciesto extinction 7. The loss of ecologicalservices from forests, coral reefs and otherecosystems will also have huge economicimplications 8.The costs of adapting toclimate change will be colossal: a recentreport suggests that by 2030, the worldmay need to spend more than 200 billiona year on measures such as building ooddefences, transporting water for agricultureand rebuilding infrastructure affectedby climate change 9.To avoid devastatingconsequences, we must keep eventualglobal warming below 1.5C compared topre-Industrial temperatures. To have achance of doing that, global greenhouse gasemissions need to start falling within thenext ve years, and we need to cut them by at least 80 per cent globally by 2050 (from1990 levels) and even further beyond thatdate.

The global energy sector holdsthe key. It is responsible foraround two-thirds of globalgreenhouse gas emissions,an amount that is increasingat a faster rate than for any other sector. Coal is the mostcarbon-intensive fuel and thesingle largest source of globalgreenhouse gas emissions.Embracing renewable energy,along with ambitious energy-saving measures, is the best way to achieve the rapid emissionsreductions we need.6. http://www.who.int/globalchange/news/fsclimandhealth/en/index.html7. http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v427/n6970/abs/nature02121.html8. For a report on the effects of climate change onecosystem services, see The Economics of Ecosystemsand Biodiversity (TEEB) TEEB Climate Issues Update.September 20099. Martin Parry, Nigel Arnell, Pam Berry, DavidDodman, Samuel Fankhauser, Chris Hope, Sari Kovats,Robert Nicholls, David Satterthwaite, Richard Tif n,Tim Wheeler (2009) Assessing the Costs of Adaptationto Climate Change: A Review of the UNFCCC andOther Recent Estimates, International Institute forEnvironment and Development and Grantham Institutefor Climate Change, London.



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CLIMATCHANGALREAA REAL

CHANGING REALITPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT


Y i f ei Z HA NG / WWF -C anon


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NUCLEAR IS ANUNETHICAL ANDEXPENSIVE OPTION

Donal d Mi l l er / WWF -C anon


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Operational Nuclear Reactors

10,000 YRS OFHARMFUL WASTEPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

Map 3: Operational nuclear reactorsP. Hearn, Jr., T. Hare, et. al., Global GIS Database: CompleteGlobal Set, 2002

NUCLEAR WASTE WILL BEDANGEROUS FOR 10,000YEARSFor some, nuclear power is seen to be apart of the solution to the energy crisis. Itproduces large-scale electricity with low carbon emissions although mining andenriching uranium is very energy intensive.

But we cannot escape the reality thatnuclear ssion produces dangerous wastethat remains highly toxic for thousandsof years and there is nowhere in theworld where it can be stored safely. TheUnited States and Germany alone haveaccumulated more than 50,000 and12,000 tonnes respectively, of highly radioactive waste which has not yet beendisposed of securely. According to the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency, it willbe at least 10,000 years before its threat topublic health is substantively reduced.

Equally troubling, the materials andtechnology needed for nuclear energy canalso be used to produce nuclear weapons.In a politically unstable world, spreadingnuclear capability is a dangerous course totake.

Nuclear is no easy technology. It requiresa highly sophisticated and trained staff,and only works on a large scale, providingpower around the clock. It is certainly not aviable way to provide electricity for the 1.4billion people whom are currently deniedit 10, many of whom live in remote places infragile states.

Nuclear power is also an extremely expensive option. Before pouring billionsinto creating a new generation of nuclearpower stations, we need to ask whetherthat money would be better invested inother, sustainable energy technologies.

10. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2010, Paris



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WWFS PERSPECTIVEClimate change threatens to undoeverything that conservation organizationslike WWF have achieved over the lasthalf-century. Polar bears may make theheadlines, but in reality very few specieswill be unaffected by a changing climate.Many species could become extinct. Evenentire ecosystems such as coral reefs,mountain habitats, and large blocks of tropical rainforests such as the Amazon could completely disappear.

Many plants and animals that have adaptedto their environment over millions of yearsare vulnerable to even slight changes intemperature and rainfall. Warming andacidifying seas threaten coral reefs andkrill the basis of the marine food chain inmany parts of the world. Large mammalslike whales and elephants may be forced totravel further in search of food, leaving thesafety of the protected areas that WWF andothers have fought so hard to secure.

As part of the interwoven web of life,humans will not be immune to theconsequences of a changing climate.WWFs mission is to protect themagni cent array of living things thatinhabit our planet and to create a healthy and prosperous future in which humanslive in harmony with nature. Solvingthe energy crisis is fundamental to this,whatever tough choices and challenges itbrings.

WE PREDICT,

THE BASIS OF MRANGE CLIMAWARMING

SCENARIOS F

2050, THAT 1537% OF SPECIEIN OUR SAMPOF REGIONS A

TAXA WILL BCOMMITTEDEXTINCTION** Thomas C.D. et al, 2004, Extinction risk from climatechange. Nature, Vol 427, No. 8



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WWF PERSPECTIVEPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT


K ev i n S c h af er / WWF -C anon


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Map 4: Fossil Fuel and RenewableEnergy Potential

This OMA map is an artists impression showingthe abundance of Renewable Energy potentials.It is not intended to claim exact values for renewable energy potentials but represents arough estimate based on landmass.

Figure 3: World Energy SupplySource: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010



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100% POSSIBLEPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

100% POSSIBLESwitching to a fully renew-able energy supply by 2050 isachievable, but there are chal-lenges to overcome.The global energy crisis is a dauntingchallenge. Yet we do not have to look far forthe solutions. Energy derived from the sun,the wind, the Earths heat, water and thesea has the potential to meet the worldselectricity needs many times over, evenallowing for uctuations in supply anddemand. We can greatly reduce the amountof energy we use through simple measureslike insulating buildings, recyclingmaterials and installing ef cient biomassstoves. Biomass from waste, crops andforest resources has potential to provide arenewable source of energy although thisraises signi cant social and environmentalissues, which we will discuss later in thisreport.

Around the world, people are taking stepsin the right direction. In 2009, Chinaadded 37GW of renewable energy, bringingits total renewable capacity to 226GW equivalent to four times the capacity required to satisfy the total peak electricalpower consumption of Great Britain 11 orover twice the total electric capacity of Africa! 12 In Europe and the U.S., more thanhalf of all new power capacity installedin 2009 came from renewable sources.In the developing world, more than 30million households have their own biogasgenerators for cooking and lighting. Over160 million use improved biomass stoves,which are more ef cient and produceless greenhouse gas and other pollutants.Solar water heating is used by 70 millionhouseholds around the world. Wind powercapacity has grown by 70 per cent, andsolar power (PV) by a massive 190 per centin the last two years (2008 and 2009).During the same period, total investmentinto all renewables has increased fromabout $US 100 billion in 2007 to morethan $US 150 billion in2009 13.

But the pace of change is far too slow.Non-hydro renewables still only comprise amere 3 per cent of all electricity consumed.Huge quantities of fossil fuels continue tobe extracted and used, and global carbonemissions are still rising. Governmentsubsidies and private investments infossil fuels and nuclear power ventures

still vastly outweigh those into renewableenergy and energy ef ciency, even thoughthe latter would give a far greater long-

term return. While thousandsof houses throughout the world,especially in Germany andScandinavia, have been built topassive house standards thatrequire almost no energy forheating and cooling, many moreconstruction projects follow old-fashioned, energy-inef cientdesigns.

Moving to a fully renewableenergy future by 2050 is a radicaldeparture from humanityscurrent course. It is an ambitiousgoal. But WWF believes that it isa goal we can and must achieve.This conviction led us to establisha collaborative partnershipwith Ecofys, one of the worlds

leading climate and energy consultancies. We commissionedEcofys to assess whether it wouldbe possible to secure a fully renewable, sustainable energy supply for everyone on the planetby 2050.

The Ecofys scenario, which formsthe second part of this report, isthe most ambitious analysis of its kind to date. It demonstratesthat it is technically feasible tosupply everyone on the planet in2050 with the energy they need,with 95 per cent of this energy coming from renewable sources.This would reduce greenhousegas emissions from the energy sector by about 80 per cent whiletaking account of residual land-based emissions from bioenergy production.

The task ahead is, of course,a huge one, raising majorchallenges. However, thescenario Ecofys has mapped outis practically possible. It is based

only on the technologies theworld already has at its disposal,and is realistic about the rate atwhich these can be brought upto scale. Although signi cantinvestment will be required, theeconomic outlay is reasonable,with net costs never rising above2 per cent of global GDP. TheEcofys scenario accounts for

projected increasesin population, long-distance travel andincreased economicwealth it does notdemand radical changesto the way we live.

The scenario detailedby Ecofys for this reportis not the only solution,nor is it intendedto be a prescriptiveplan. Indeed, it raisesa number of majorchallenges and dif cultquestions particularly for a conservationorganization like WWF which we will discuss

in more detail on thefollowing pages. Torealize our vision of a100 per cent renewableand sustainable energy supply, we need tofurther advance theEcofys scenario; andwe propose some of thesocial and technologicalchanges that could helpus do this.

In presenting the Ecofysscenario, WWF aimsto show that a fully renewable energy futureis not an unattainableutopia. It is technically and economically possible, and there areconcrete steps we cantake starting rightnow to achieve it.

11. Figures for UK energy demandcome from the National Grids website:http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Demand+Data/12. EIA World Electric Data 2006http://www.eia.doe.gov/iea/elec.html13. Renewables 2010 Global StatusReport, REN 21.

WE CAN REDUCE OUR RELIANFOSSIL FUELS BY 70% BY 2040** Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010



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Figure 4: World Energy Supply by Source.The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010

THE ECOFYS SCENARIO INA NUTSHELLIn 2050, energy demand is 15 per centlower than in 2005. Although population,industrial output, passenger traveland freight transport continue to riseas predicted, ambitious energy-savingmeasures allow us to do more withless. Industry uses more recycled andenergy-ef cient materials, buildings areconstructed or upgraded to need minimalenergy for heating and cooling, and there isa shift to more ef cient forms of transport.

As far as possible, we use electrical energy rather than solid and liquid fuels. Wind,solar, biomass and hydropower are themain sources of electricity, with solar andgeothermal sources, as well as heat pumpsproviding a large share of heat for buildings

and industry. Because supplies of wind andsolar power vary, smart electricity gridshave been developed to store and deliverenergy more ef ciently.

Bioenergy (liquid biofuels and solidbiomass) is used as a last resort whereother renewable energy sources are not

viable primarily in providingfuels for aeroplanes, shipsand trucks, and in industrialprocesses that require very hightemperatures. We can meetpart of this demand from wasteproducts, but it would still benecessary to grow sustainablebiofuel crops and take more woodfrom well-managed forests tomeet demand. Careful land-useplanning and better internationalcooperation and governance areessential to ensure we do thiswithout threatening food andwater supplies or biodiversity, orincreasing atmospheric carbon.

By 2050, we save nearly 4trillion per year through energy ef ciency and reduced fuel costscompared to a business-as-usual scenario. But big increasesin capital expenditure are needed

rst to install renewableenergy-generating capacity on a massive scale, modernizeelectricity grids, transformgoods and public transport andimprove the energy ef ciency of our existing buildings. Ourinvestments begin to pay off around 2040, when the savings

BY 2050, WESAVE NEARLY4 TRILLIONPER YEARTHROUGHENERGYEFFICIENCYAND REDUCEDFUEL COSTS

start to outweigh thecosts. If oil prices risefaster than predicted,and if we factor in thecosts of climate changeand the impact of fossilfuels on public health,the pay-off occurs muchearlier.

14. A table summarising all energy datais provided on pages 231 and 232 of theEcofys scenario.

14



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15

THE ECOFYS SCENARIO IN ANUTSHELLPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

Map 5: Global PopulationDensity 2010

Gridded Population of the World,version 3 (GPWv3) and the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) produced by the Center

for International Earth ScienceInformation Network (CIESIN) of theEarth Institute at Columbia University.



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ENERGFOR ANEWFUTUR



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CHANGING REALITPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

C h r i s Mar t i n B ah r / WWF -C anon




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ENERGY OFTHE FUTURE

Global potential of wind power

Global potential of water power

THE ENERGY MIX Introducing the energy sourcesof the future At the moment, more than 80 per centof our global energy comes from fossilfuels (oil, gas and coal). The remaindercomes from nuclear and renewableenergy sources, mainly hydropower, andtraditional biomass fuels such as charcoal,which are often used inef ciently andunsustainably. Under the Ecofys scenario,fossil fuels, nuclear power and traditionalbiomass are almost entirely phased-out by 2050, to be replaced with a more variedmixture of renewable energy sources.

The Ecofys scenario takes into account eachresources overall potential, current growthrates, selected sustainability criteria, and

other constraints and opportunities suchas variability of wind and solar sources.Technological breakthroughs, marketforces and geographic location will allin uence the ways in which renewableenergies are developed and deployed, sothe nal energy breakdown could well look very different - while still based on 100 percent sustainable renewables.



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THE ENERGY MIXPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

Global potential of solar power and heat

Global potential of geothermal energy

IN ORDER TO CUT GLOBAL GREENHGAS EMISSIONS BY AT LEAST 80% BYTHE WORLD WILL NEED TO TRANSITIRENEWABLE ENERGY

Figure 5: World Renewable Production Potential The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010PV - Solar power from photovoltaicsCSP - Concentrating solar power CSH - Concentrating solar high-temperature heat for industryLow T - Low temperature heat Hight T - High temperature heat



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Map 6: Global Solar Potential NASA Map of World Solar Energy Potential



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PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

* Bridgette Meinhold, Desertec Foundation, 2009

Solar energy The sun provides an effectively unlimitedsupply of energy that we can use to gener-ate electricity and heat. At the moment, so-lar energy technology contributes only 0.02per cent of our total energy supply, but thisproportion is growing fast. In the Ecofysscenario, solar energy supplies around half of our total electricity, half of our buildingheating and 15 per cent of our industrialheat and fuel by 2050, requiring an averageannual growth rate much lower than theone currently sustained year on year.

Solar energy provides light, heat andelectricity. Photovoltaic (PV) cells,which convert sunlight directly intoelectricity, can be integrated into devices(solar-powered calculators have beenaround since the 1970s) or buildings, orinstalled on exposed areas such as roofs.Concentrating solar power (CSP) usesmirrors or lenses to focus the suns raysonto a small area where the heat can becollected for example to heat water,which can be used to generate electricity

via a steam turbine or for direct heat. Thesame principle can be used on a smallscale to cook food or boil water. Solarthermal collectors absorb heat from thesun and provide hot water. Combinedwith improved insulation and window architecture, direct sunshine can also beused to heat buildings.

For developing countries, many of which are in regions thatreceive the most sunlight, solarpower is an especially importantresource. Solar energy cangenerate power in rural areas, onislands, and other remote placesoff-grid.

One obvious drawback of solar power is that the supply varies. Photovoltaic cells dontfunction after dark althoughmost electricity is consumed indaylight hours when sunshinealso peaks and are less effectiveon cloudy days. But energy storage is improving: CSPsystems that can store energy inthe form of heat - which can thenbe used to generate electricity - for up to 15 hours, are now atthe design stage. This issue of variability can also be addressedby combining solar electricity

with other renewable electricity sources.

IF 0.3% OF TSAHARA DESERT

A CONCENTRSOLAR PLANWOULD POWER

OF EUROP*


J oh n E . Newb y / WWF -C anon


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WIND ENERGY MIXPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

Wind energy

Wind power currently supplies around2 per cent of global electricity demand,with capacity more than doubling in thelast four years. In Denmark, wind already accounts for one- fth of the countryselectricity production. Wind could meet aquarter of the worlds electricity needs by 2050 if current growth rates continue requiring an additional 1,000,000 onshoreand 100,000 offshore turbines. Electricity from offshore wind is less variable, andturbines can be bigger.

AN ADDITIONAL 1,000,00ONSHORE AND 100,000 OFWIND TURBINES WOULDA QUARTER OF THE WORELECTRICITY NEEDS BY *

Although wind farms have a very visible effect on the landscape,their environmental impact isminimal if they are plannedsensitively. When turbines aresited on farmland, almost allof the land can still be used foragriculture, such as grazing orcrops. Unlike fossil fuel andnuclear power plants, windfarms dont need any water forcooling. Both on- and offshore

wind developmentsneed to be sensitively planned to minimisethe impact on marinelife and birds, and moreresearch is neededin this area. Floatingturbines, which wouldhave less impact on theseabed and could besited in deeper water,are being trialled.


* Source: The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010

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Geothermal energy The ancient Romans used the heat frombeneath the Earths crust to heat buildingsand water, but only relatively recently havewe begun to rediscover its potential. Underthe Ecofys scenario, more than a thirdof building heat comes from geothermalsources by 2050. This is not restricted tovolcanically active areas: direct geothermalheat can provide central heating forbuildings in almost all parts of the world 15.

When temperatures are high enough,geothermal energy can be used to generateelectricity and local heating, includinghigh-temperature heat for industrialprocesses. Unlike wind or solar power,which vary with the weather, geothermalenergy provides a constant supply of electricity. Iceland already gets a quarterof its electricity and almost all of itsheating from its molten basement. In thePhilippines, geothermal plants generatealmost a fth of total electricity 16.

Geothermal electric capacity is growingat around 5 per cent each year; the Ecofysanalysis suggests we could reasonably

hope to at least double this growth rateto provide about 4 per cent of our totalelectricity in 2050. Geothermal would alsoprovide 5 per cent of our industrial heatneeds. Exploiting geothermal resourceswill undoubtedly affect the surroundingenvironment and the people who livethere. Geothermal steam or hot water usedfor generating electricity contains toxiccompounds, but closed loop systemscan prevent these from escaping. If sitesare well chosen and systems are in placeto control emissions, they have littlenegative environmental impact. In fact,because geothermal plants need healthy water catchment areas, they may actually strengthen efforts to conserve surroundingecosystems 17.

15.Direct geothermal heat should not be confused with heat pumps,which are included on the demand-side in the Ecofys scenario andprovide heat in addition to geothermal energy.16. http://www.geo-energy.org/pdf/reports/GEA_International_Market_Report_Final_May_2010.pdf 17. See: Geothermal Projects in National Parks in the Philippines: TheCase of the Mt. Apo Geothermal Project,Francis M. Dolor, PNOC Energy Development Corporation



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GEOTHERMAL ENERGYPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

*Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2010

BY 2050, MORTHAN A THIROF BUILDIN

HEAT COULDCOME FROM

GEOTHERMASOURCES*


Mi c h el T er r et t az / WWF -C anon


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IF WE COULDHARNESS 0.1%OF THE ENERGY IN

THE OCEAN, WECOULD SUPPORTTHE ENERGYNEEDS OF 15

BILLION PEOPLE*



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OCEANENERGY MIXPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

* M.M. Bernitsas, et al., Vortex Induced Vibration Aquatic Clean Energy): A NewConcept in Generation of Clean and Renewable Energy from Fluid Flow OMAE 06

Ocean powerThe motion of the ocean, throughboth waves and tides, providesa potentially vast and reliablesource of energy but there aresigni cant challenges in convert-ing it into electricity. Several pilotprojects are underway to harnesswave energy and to design sus-tainable tidal systems, but this is arelatively new technology. Recog-nising this constraint, the Ecofysscenario assumes that ocean pow-er accounts for only 1 per cent of global electricity supply by 2050.However, it is likely to provide asigni cantly larger percentage insome particularly suitable areas,like Americas Paci c Northwestand the British Isles.

Wave and tidal power installa-tions could affect the local marineenvironment, coastal communi-ties, as well as maritime indus-tries such as shipping and shing.It is critical that appropriate sitesare selected and technologies de-

veloped that minimize any nega-tive impacts.


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NEWHYDROPOWERSCHEMES WOULNEED TO MEETSTRINGENTENVIRONMENTASUSTAINABILITAND HUMANRIGHTS CRITER

HydropowerHydropower is currently the worlds largestrenewable power source, providing nearly one- fth of all electricity worldwide. Large-scale hydropower plants store water in areservoir behind a dam, and then regulatethe ow according to electricity demand.Hydropower can provide a relatively reliable source of power on demand,helping to balance variable sources likewind and solar PV.

However, hydropower can have severeenvironmental and social impacts. By changing water ow downstream, damsthreaten freshwater ecosystems and thelivelihoods of millions of people whodepend on sheries, wetlands, and regulardeposits of sediment for agriculture. They fragment habitats and cut-off sh accessto traditional spawning grounds. Creatingreservoirs means ooding large areas of land: 40-80 million people worldwide havebeen displaced as a result of hydroelectricschemes 18.

The Ecofys scenario re ects theseconcerns with a relatively small increase inhydropower. Hydropower would provide12 per cent of our electricity in 2050compared with 15 per cent today. New hydropower schemes would need to meetstringent environmental sustainability and human rights criteria, and minimizeany negative impacts on river ows andfreshwater habitats.

18. http://www.internationalrivers.org/en/way-forward/world-commission-dams/world-commission-dams-framework-brief-introduction



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HYDRO ENERGY MIXPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT


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Bio energy Energy from biomass materials derivedfrom living or recently living organisms,such as plant materials or animal waste ispotentially the most challenging part of theEcofys scenario. Bioenergy comes from alarge variety of sources and is used in many different ways. Wood and charcoal havetraditionally provided the main source of fuel for cooking and heating for hundredsof millions of people in the developingworld. More recently, biofuels have begunto replace some petrol and diesel invehicles.

In principle, biomass is a renewableresource it is possible to grow new plantsto replace the ones we use. Greenhousegas emissions are lower than from fossilfuels, provided there is enough regrowthto absorb the carbon dioxide released, andgood management practices are applied.Bioenergy also has potential to providesustainable livelihoods for millions of people, particularly in Africa, Asia andLatin America. However, if producedunsustainably its environmental and socialimpacts can be devastating. We needcomprehensive policies and mandatory

certi cation to ensure bioenergy isproduced to the highest standards.

Although the Ecofys scenario favoursother renewable resources whereverpossible, there are some applications wherebioenergy is currently the only suitablereplacement for fossil fuels. Aviation,shipping and long-haul trucking requireliquid fuels with a high energy density;they cannot, with current technology andfuelling infrastructure, be electri ed orpowered by hydrogen. Some industrialprocesses, such as steel manufacturing,require fuels not only for their energy content, but as feedstocks with speci cmaterial properties. By 2050, 60 per centof industrial fuels and heat will come frombiomass. 13 per cent of building heat willcome from biomass and some biomass willstill be needed in the electricity mix (about13 per cent), for balancing purposes withother renewable energy technologies.

We can derive a signi cant proportion of the bioenergy needs in the Ecofys scenariofrom products that would otherwise go towaste. These include some plant residuesfrom agriculture and food processing;

sawdust and residues from forestry andwood processing; manure; and municipal

waste. Using these resourcesup to a sustainable level hasother environmental bene ts,such as cutting methane andnitrogen emissions and waterpollution from animal slurry, andreducing the need for land ll. Indeveloping countries, more than30 million households have theirown biogas digesters for cookingand lighting. Some residues andwaste products are already used,for example as soil conditioners;the Ecofys scenario accounts forthese. The second major source of biomass comes from forests.According to the Ecofys scenario,we will need more than 4.5 billioncubic metres of wood productsfor energy purposes by 2050coming from harvesting andprocessing residues, wood wasteand complementary fellings the difference between theamount of wood we use and themaximum amount that we could

sustainably harvest in forests thatare already used commercially.This is preferable to takingwood from virgin forests anddisturbing important habitats,although more intensive forestry is bound to affect biodiversity.In addition, some of the biomasstraditionally used for heating andcooking in the developing world,which will largely be replaced by renewable energy sources suchas solar energy, can also be usedfor more ef cient bioenergy uses.All the same, meeting demandsustainably will be a hugechallenge.

Bioenergy crops provide apossible source of liquid fuel either vegetable oils fromplants such as rapeseed, or inthe form of ethanol derived fromcrops high in sugar, starch orcellulose. The Ecofys scenariosuggests we will need around250 million hectares of bioenergy crops equal to about one-sixth of total global cropland

to meet projected demand.This has the potential to cause

deforestation, foodand water shortages,and other social andenvironmental impacts,so must be consideredwith utmost care.

With an expected 2billion more mouths tofeed by 2050, it is vitalthat increased biofuelcultivation does not useland and water that isneeded to grow foodfor people or to sustainbiodiversity. This is noeasy challenge. WhileEcofys has applied aseries of safeguards inits analysis, land andwater implications of bioenergy feedstock production will needfurther research,especially at thelandscape level.

A possible long-term

alternative sourceof high-density fuelincluded in this scenariois algae. Algae canbe grown in vats of saltwater or wastewateron land not suitable foragriculture. Large-scalecultivation of algae forbiofuel is currently indevelopment. In theEcofys scenario, algaebegins to appear as aviable energy sourcearound 2030, and only a fraction of its potentialis included by 2050.

The apparent need forlarge amounts of landfor bioenergy is theaspect of the Ecofysscenario that producesthe hardest challengesand raises the hardestquestions. We willdiscuss these further onpages 60-61.


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BIOENERGY MIXPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

Map 7: World biomass potential Artists impression, OMA



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CHALLENGES AHEAPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

THE CHALLENGES AHEADThe Ecofys analysis shows that the worldcan technically meet its energy needs fromrenewable sources by 2050. But it throwsup some dif cult challenges and not justtechnical ones. The social, environmental,economic and political issues this reportraises are equally pressing.

On the technical side, two key factors willenable the world to meet its energy needsfrom renewable sources: (i) We needto reduce demand by improving energy ef ciency and reducing wasteful use of

energy; and (ii) because electricity andheat are the forms of energy most easily generated by renewables, we need tomaximize the use of electricity and directheat, with improvements to electricity gridsto support this.

A sustainable energy future must be anequitable one. Its impact on people andnature will greatly depend on the way weuse our land, seas and water resources.Changes in lifestyle also have a critical roleto play.

Moving to a renewable future will meanrethinking our current nance systems. Itwill also require innovation.

Local, national and regional governancewill need to be greatly strengthened tosecure an equitable energy future. Weneed international cooperation andcollaboration on an unprecedented levelto bridge the gap between the energy-richand energy-poor, both within and betweencountries.

These challenges are outlined on thefollowing pages.


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ENERGY CONSERVATIONHow can we do more whileusing less energy?Under the Ecofys scenario, global energy demand in 2050 is 15 per cent lower thanin 2005. This is in striking contrast tobusiness-as-usual projections, whichpredict energy demand will at leastdouble. This difference is not based onany reduction in activity industrialoutput, domestic energy use, passengertravel and freight transport continue togrow, particularly in developing countries.Instead, reductions come from usingenergy as ef ciently as possible.

Energy conservation is one of theprerequisites of a future powered by renewables. We will not be able to meetthe needs of our planets expected ninebillion inhabitants if we continue to use itas wastefully as we do today. It is the singlemost important element in the Ecofysscenario.

In every sector, solutions already exist thatcan deliver the massive energy savings weneed. The challenge will be in rolling themout on a global scale as soon as possible.

In manufacturing, using recycled materialsgreatly reduces energy consumption.For example, making new products fromrecovered aluminium instead of primary aluminium cuts total energy use by morethan two-thirds. Stocks of materials thattake a lot of energy to produce, such assteel and aluminium, have grown over thepast decades, making recycling and reusingmaterials increasingly viable. Findingalternatives to materials that take the mostenergy to produce, such as cement andsteel, will mean further energy savings.

Product design also has considerableimplications for energy use. Making carswith lighter (although not weaker) framesand with new materials, for example,and producing smaller cars reduces boththe need for energy-intensive steel inmanufacturing and their fuel consumption.Despite some very innovative modelson markets already, there is still hugepotential to tap into much higher ef ciency levels for all energy-hungry appliances.

In the developing world, morethan 160 million households now use improved biomass cookingstoves. Simply using a ceramiclining instead of an all-metaldesign can improve ef ciency by up to a half. The stoves costlittle, reduce carbon emissionsand deforestation from charcoalproduction, and have immensehealth bene ts. Even moreef cient are solar cookers, whichsimply use and concentrate theheat from the sun. Distributedwidely enough, these small-scalesolutions add up to a signi cantreduction in energy demand.

The world already has thearchitectural and constructionexpertise to create buildings thatrequire almost no conventionalenergy for heating or cooling,through airtight construction,heat pumps and sunlight. TheEcofys scenario foresees all

new buildings achieving thesestandards by 2030.

At the same time, we need toradically improve the energy ef ciency of our existingbuildings. We could reduceheating needs by 60 per centby insulating walls, roofsand ground oors, replacingold windows and installingventilation systems that recoverheat. Local solar thermal systemsand heat pumps would ful l theremaining heating and hot waterneeds. For all buildings to meetthese energy ef ciency standardsby 2050, we will need to retro t2-3 per cent of oor area every year. This is ambitious, butnot impossible Germany hasalready achieved annual retro trates in this range.

The world will also needto use less energy fortransport. That meansmaking more fuel-ef cient models of allforms of transport, andoperating them moreeffectively. Improvedair traf c managementcould reduce congestionand allow planes tofollow more ef cientroutes and landingapproaches, making asmall but signi cantreduction in aviationfuel demands. Similarly,better port, route andweather planning, alongwith reduced speeds,can signi cantly reducefuel use in cargo ships.

But we will also need tomove to more ef cientmodes of transport;

making greater useof buses, bikes, tramsand trains, sendingmore freight by railand sea, and swappingshort-haul ights forhigh-speed trains.Indeed, WWF wouldargue that we need togo further than this, by reducing the numberand length of journeyswe need to take by improving urbanplanning, logisticsand communicationtechnology, andreassessing ourpriorities.

The more energy wesave, the easier thetask of moving to arenewable energy futurewill become. It is onearea where everyonecan play a part.



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ENERGY CONSERVATIONPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

THE GLOBALCOST OF LIGHTIS $230 BILLIONPER YEAR.

MODERNIZINGWASTEFULTECHNOLOGYCOULD SAVE 60** Mills, E. 2002, The $230-billion Global Lighting EnergyBill., International Association for Energy-Ef cient Lighting, Stockholm


Mi c h el Gunt h er / WWF -C anon


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ENERGYEFFICIENCYANDRENEWABLEENERGY CANREDUCE OURDEPENDENCEON FOSSILFUELS BY70% BY2040** The Ecofys Energy Scenario, December 2010


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WHAT NOW? We must introduce legally bindingminimum ef ciency standards worldwidefor all products that consume energy,including buildings, along the lines of the Japanese Top Runner scheme andthe European EcoDesign requirements.Governments, companies and expertswill need to agree standards based

on Best-Available-Technology (BAT)benchmarks, which should be monitoredand strengthened regularly.

Energy conservation should be built intoevery stage of product design. Whereverpossible we should use energy-ef cient,highly-durable and recyclable materials.Alternatives to materials like cement, steeland plastic that take a lot of energy toproduce should be a focus for research anddevelopment. We should adopt a cradleto cradle design philosophy, where all of a products components can be reused orrecycled once it reaches the end of its life.

We need strict energy-ef ciency criteriafor all new buildings, aiming toward near-zero energy use, equivalent to PassiveHouse standards. Retro tting ratesmust increase quickly to improve theenergy ef ciency of existing buildings.Governments must provide legislation andincentives to enable this.

Energy taxation is a realisticoption, particularly in wealthiercountries. Taxes on petrol,electricity and fuels are already commonplace. Shifting taxesto products and cars that usemore energy will help to steerdemand toward more ef cient

alternatives. Developing countries mustphase-out the inef cient use of traditional biomass, and pursuealternatives such as improvedbiomass cooking stoves, solarcookers and small-scale biogasdigesters. Industrializedcountries should facilitate this by providing nancial assistance, aspart of international developmentcommitments and global effortsto reduce greenhouse gasemissions.

Substantial investment isneeded into public transportto provide convenient andaffordable energy-ef cientalternatives to private cars. Weparticularly need to improverail infrastructure: high-speedtrains, powered by electricity from renewable sources, should

replace air travel asmuch as possible, anda maximum proportionof freight should bedelivered by rail.Sustainable and publictransport modes for alldistances, particularly

for rail-based transport,must be made cheaperthan road- and air-borne traf c.

Individuals,businesses,communities andnations all need tobe more aware of theenergy they use, and try to save energy whereverpossible. Driving moreslowly and smoothly,buying energy-ef cient appliancesand switching themoff when not in use,turning down heatingand air conditioning,and increased reusingand recycling are justsome ways to make acontribution.

ENERGY CONSERVATIONPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT



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CASE STUDY



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Figure XX.XX

WWW.TOPTEN.INFO

WWF HELPEDDEVELOPTOPTEN, ANONLINE SEARCHTOOL THATIDENTIFIES THE

MOST ENERGY-EFFICIENTAPPLIANCESON THEMARKET

PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

TopTen. info

Consumers and retailerscan put pressure onmanufacturers to bemore energy ef cientthrough their buyingchoices. WWF helpeddevelop Topten(www.topten.info),an online search toolthat identi es themost energy-ef cientappliances on themarket. Discerningbuyers can compareenergy-ef ciency ratingsfor a growing number

of items, including carsand vans, householdappliances, of ceequipment, lighting,water heaters and airconditioners. Toptennow operates in 17countries across Europeand has recently beenlaunched in the USA and China.


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Ni gel Di c k i ns on / WWF -C anon


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WHAT NOW? We need to massively expand ourcapacity for generating electricity from renewable resources. Large-scalerenewable power plants need to be built,before we divert investment into building anew generation of costly and unsustainablefossil fuel and nuclear power plants thatcould set us back decades. We also need tosupport local micro-generation, especially in areas where people have limited or noconnection to electricity grids.

Countries need to work together toextend electricity networks to bringpower from centres of production tocentres of consumption as ef ciently aspossible. International networks willhelp meet demand by balancing variablepower sources (such as solar PV and

wind), supported by constant sources(geothermal, stored CSP, hydro, biomass).

We need urgent investmentinto smart grids to help manageenergy demand and allow for asigni cantly higher proportion of

electricity to come from variableand decentralized sources. Thiswill help energy companiesbalance supply and demand moreef ciently, and enable consumersto make more informed choicesabout their electricity use.

More research is needed intoef cient ways to store energy,including batteries, hydrogenand heat storage for solarpower. We also need ef cientgrid management to release thisenergy when it is needed, anddispatch it over large distances.

By 2050, all cars,vans and trainsglobally should runon electricity. We

need legislation,investment andincentives to encouragemanufacturers andconsumers to switchto electric cars.Improvements inbattery technology, andemergence of ef cientfuel cells, could allow usto run electric trucks,and possibly evenships, reducing ourdependence on biofuels.This is a long-termaim, but research anddevelopment is needednow.


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GLOBAL ENERGY NETWPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

Map 8: Artistic impression of a future World Energy Grid GIS 2010 Dymaxion Projection-AMO Global Energy Grid Anaylsis



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CASE STUDY



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MICRO-HYDROELECTRPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

WWF INSTALLEDA MICRO-HYDROELECTRICITYSYSTEM AS THEDEMAND FORWOOD FOR COOKINAND HEATINGWAS LEADING TODEFORESTATION INTHE AREA

S i mon d e T RE Y -WHI T E / WWF -UK

Micro-hydroelectricity Near the village of Chaurikharkain Nepal, WWF installed amicro-hydroelectricity systemas the demand for wood forcooking and heating was leadingto deforestation in the area.Water is diverted from a streamto run a generator, then owsback into the stream, withminimal impact. More than 100households in six villages now use electricity for cookstoves,microwaves, rice cookers,fridges and room heaters. Fourmore similar schemes are now operating in the area, savinghundreds of tonnes of fuel woodand improving daily life.



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EQUITYEveryone has the right toenergy. So how are we going toprovide it?

Historically, the worlds energy consumption has not been fairly balanced.Rich countries have built their economieson cheap, plentiful fossil fuels, andcontinue to consume the vast majority of global energy supplies. With fossil fuelsupplies dwindling, the rest of the worldwill not have this resource to fuel its owndevelopment. Adding to this inequity,poorer countries will suffer most fromclimate change, which is largely driven by the fossil fuel use of wealthier countries.

A sustainable energy future must be a

fair one, in which the equal right of every person to bene t from the worlds energy resources is recognized. The scale of thechallenge is daunting. Around 1.4 billionpeople a fth of the worlds population have no access to reliable electricity 21.And the population of developing countriescontinues to rise rapidly. Investmentsrequired for universal access to cleancooking for those 2.7 billion in developingcountries who have no access to theseservices will be around 43 billion in total,or around 2 billion annually between2010 and 2030, less than 0.005 per cent of global GDP 22.

In the absence of alternative sources of energy, hundreds of millions of peopletoday use biomass as their primary sourceof fuel for cooking and heating. As a result,trees are cut down at unsustainable rates,leading to biodiversity loss, increasingcarbon emissions, harming soil quality and leaving communities vulnerable to

ooding. Biomass stoves are also a majorhealth problem. Fumes from traditionalcooking res kill almost as many peoplein the developing world than malaria 23 about two million women and children

die prematurely each year from indoorpollution.

To move to a fully renewable future, inwhich people live in harmony with nature,we must end unsustainable biomass use.But we cannot do this without providingpeople with better alternatives. Ef cientcookstoves are one simple, cost-effective

way to signi cantly reducethe amount of biomass peopleuse, and the carbon and black

soot emissions and healthimpacts this causes. Plantingfast-growing tree species forenergy production also reducesthe need to cut down or degradeprimary forests WWFs New Generation Plantation Initiativeoutlines sustainable managementpractices for doing this. Theseare, though, only part of thesolution.

From solar power acrossAfrica, to geothermal power inIndonesia, developing countrieshave great potential to powereconomic growth with renewableenergy. Large-scale wind, solarand geothermal plants arebeginning to appear. Renewablesalso offer hope to the hundredsof millions of people trapped inenergy poverty. WWF is just oneof many organizations helpingto develop renewable energy projects across the developingworld particularly in ruralareas, where approximately 85per cent of people who have no

access to reliable electricity live.As a result of these initiatives,thousands of communities now bene t from electricity from solarpower, wind turbines, micro-hydro, and biogas plants fuelledby farming residues and manure.

Access to reliable energy canmake a phenomenal difference.Electric pumps provide cleanwater. Refrigerators store foodand medicines. Farms run moreproductively. Women who usedto spend many hours every day collecting rewood and waterhave more time to devote toeducation, childcare or advancingtheir own livelihoods. Childrenget a better education throughaccess to learning resourceslike the Internet, or simply

by having electriclighting to read in theevenings. Historically,

womens emancipation,better education andsecure livelihoodshave coincided withincreased family incomes and hencefalling birth rates, soaccess to sustainablerenewable energy can also contribute tocurbing populationgrowth.

Biofuels can offeropportunities fordeveloping countries but they also posea threat. Grownsustainably and tradedfairly, they can providea valuable cash cropfor farmers and jobsfor local communities.Without propersafeguards, however,they may displacefood crops and drivedeforestation, as well ascompete for increasingly

scarce water. We cannotabide a situation wheredeveloping countriesgrow large amounts of biofuel crops to supportthe lifestyles of the rich,while their own peopledo not have enoughfood to eat.

Renewable energy hastremendous potentialto end poverty andtransform lives forhundreds of millions of people. Ending energy poverty is at the heart of our energy vision.



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EQUITYPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

Developing countries need investmentto develop their own renewable energy capacity. Countries with advanced

renewable energy technology need toshare their knowledge and expertisewith developing countries. They shouldalso support them to develop their ownrenewable industries and innovations.

WWF and other NGOs have demonstratedways in which communities cansuccessfully generate their own electricity from renewable sources. Governments,aid agencies and investors should providesupport to replicate projects like these ona much larger scale. Experience suggeststhat schemes are more successful whencommunities also pay some of the costs,as this increases their ownership of theproject. Micro nance schemes and other

nancial innovations are needed to enablethis.

The world needs to begin phasing-outthe unsustainable use of biomass. Wherecommunities still use traditional biomassinef ciently as a source of fuel, they needsupport to switch to modern clean energy solutions. These include solar cooking,more ef cient cookstoves, biogas fromdigesters and improved charcoal-burningtechniques. They should also use biomass

sources with less environmental impact,such as crop residues or fast-growing treespecies. This should form part of a widerprogramme to enable people to bene tfrom managing their own forests andnatural resources in a sustainable way.

If land in developing countries is used tomeet a growing demand for biofuels, weneed to tackle the issues of food security,land-use planning, governance, water use,deforestation, loss of biodiversity, andthe resulting loss of ecosystem services.We need a fair and sustainable system of trade and investment. Biofuels must not begrown where they threaten peoples foodand water supplies, or cause biodiversity loss.

Poorer countries need nancing to moveto a renewable energy future. Multi- andbilateral agreements must include supportfrom richer countries to help poorercountries develop sustainable energy projects. Renewable energy must be at theheart of sustainable development policy and international aid programmes.

21. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), 201022. IEA, World Energy Outlook (WEO), 2010

23. Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves, UN Foundation, http://www.unfoundation.org/assets/pdf/global-alliance-for-clean-cookstoves-factsheet.pdf , retrieved 21 December 2010

WHAT NOW?


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CASE STUDY

C ar ol i ne S i mmond s / WWF


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SOLAR PV AND WIND POWPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

SOLAR PV AND WIND POWERThere is no grid access in the remotecoastal outpost of Kiunga, Kenya, whereWWF supports a marine reserve protectedarea conservation programme. In 2009,WWF helped install solar PV and windpower, which has improved the livelihoodsand health of local people. Bene ts includea freezer for storing sh, electricity forhealth centres and charging points for cellphones.

WWF HELPEDINSTALL SOLAR PVAND WIND POWER,WHICH HAS IMPROVEDTHE LIVELIHOODS ANDHEALTH OF LOCALPEOPLE



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also need to carefully plan the routes of thelong-distance, high-voltage power lines andundersea cables wewill need to transmitelectricity from new production centres.

The thorniest issue,however, is the roleof bioenergy 24. TheEcofys scenario for anear-complete phase-out of fossil fuelsrelies on a substantialincrease in the amount

of bioenergy. In theabsence of alternativetechnologies, this isbased on organic waste,biomass from existingforests and biofuel cropson agricultural land.

LAND AND SEA USEOur energy needs require landand sea surfaces. What canwe do to limit the impact onpeople and nature?Sustainability means living within thecapacity of humanitys one and only planet,without jeopardising the ability of futuregenerations to do the same. We need spacefor buildings and infrastructure, land togrow food and bres and raise livestock,forests for timber and paper, and seas forfood and leisure. More importantly, weneed to leave space for nature and notjust because the millions of other speciesthat inhabit our planet are important inthemselves. We need healthy ecosystemsto supply our natural resources, provideclean air and water, regulate our climate,pollinate our crops, keep our soils and seasproductive, prevent ooding, and muchmore. The way we use our land and sea iskey to securing a renewable energy futureand perhaps the hardest challenge we face.

Over the coming decades, wewill need to develop an extensiverenewable energy infrastructure,and it will be essential that weput the right technologies inthe right places. Solar farms,for example, can make use of unproductive desert areas, but itis important that no water is usedmerely for cooling solar powerplants in arid areas. Geothermal

elds are often found in unspoiltareas, so we need to choosesites carefully to minimize theenvironmental and social impact,and make sure surrounding areasare well protected. As discussed

above, we need to assess all new hydropower plants especially rigorously, and should choosesites for offshore wind and oceanpower carefully to minimizethe impact on marine life. We


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The Ecofys analysis suggests that itis technically possible to do this in asustainable way. According to the scenario,we can meet the increased need for solidbiomass by taking more wood from foreststhan is already used commercially. If people in the developed world ate half asmuch meat as they do today, we wouldneed less land for growing animal feedand grazing. That would free-up enoughland to grow enough biofuel crops withoutthreatening food security, clearing forests,increasing irrigation or losing biodiversity.

On a global level, there may be enoughagriculture and forest land availableto grow biofuels sustainably. Ecofys

estimates that we would need around250 million hectares of agriculture land,which is equivalent to about one-sixth of the total global cropland today, as wellas 4.5 billion cubic metres of biomassfrom already disturbed forests. But whatis possible on paper, even after the mostrigorous analysis, is a different matter inpractice. We have yet to identify wherethis land is, and how it is being used at themoment. We need to consider the rights of communities, including indigenous people,the movements of migratory species,the effect on water supplies, the type of infrastructure and governance systems inplace, and a host of other constraints.In fact, the huge pressure were placingon our planet means we need to takethese considerations into account with allagriculture and forestry, and not only withbioenergy.

The land availability in the Ecofysscenario also rests on the assumption of aconstrained growth in meat consumption.To achieve this equitably, people in richercountries would need to cut their meatconsumption in half, with the rest of theworld eating no more than 25 percent more

meat than they do now. A diet that is highin animal protein requires far more landthan a largely vegetarian diet it is moreef cient to eat plant protein directly thanto feed it to animals rst. Today, nearly a third of global land area (excludingAntarctica) is used for feeding livestock,either through grazing or growing animalfodder.

Because of the concernsbioenergy raises, WWFbelieves we need totake urgent action toreduce the demandfor liquid fuels thatthe Ecofys scenariopredicts, and to pursuealternatives. Furtherreductions in meatconsumption, aviationand long-distancefreight transport wouldhelp to reduce demand.Bioenergy from algaeand hydrogen producedwith renewable

electricity are potentialsustainable fueltechnologies. In themeantime, better land-use planning, from thelocal to the global level,will be vital in securinga sustainable energy supply.

24. For more information on WWFs positionon bioenergy, see www.panda.org/renewables

THE WAY WE USE OURLAND AND SEA IS KEYSECURING A RENEWABENERGY FUTURE, ANDPERHAPS THE HARDES

CHALLENGE WE FACE

As the global population grows,the world is going to need toproduce and consume food moreef ciently and fairly: this willbecome even more urgent if ourdemand for biofuels grows too.Ecofys calculations are basedon crop yields rising by 1 percent per year. This is less thanthe 1.5 per cent growth thatthe UN Food and AgricultureOrganization predicts; however,climate change will increase thelikelihood of crop failures.

Extracting more wood fromforests will have an impact on

biodiversity. Many of the worldscommercial forests are already intensively used, so expansionwill have to happen in areas withuntapped sustainable potential.There is the potential to increaseyields by using fertilizers andfast-growing species, althoughthis too has implications onwildlife habitats, and water andsoil quality. Some privately owned plots could sustainably provide more biomass, but thereare economic and logisticalhurdles. Any increase in forestbiomass use must be coupledwith efforts to reduce emissionsfrom deforestation anddegradation, and promote moreforest growth. In other words,we must not release more forestcarbon than we replace, even inthe short term.

LAND AND SEA USPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT



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WHAT NOW? All large-scale energy infrastructuredevelopments must satisfy independent,in-depth, social and environmental impactassessments. They should also meet orexceed the best social and environmentalmanagement practices and performancestandards. The Gold Standard for bestpractice in projects delivering carboncredits provides a good example. Forhydropower, WWF has participated inthe development of the InternationalHydropower Association Sustainability Guidelines.

To safeguard habitats and food supplies,water supplies and ecosystem services,world governments must stop the scramblefor land for biofuels,. Land-grabbing

where rich countries buy or lease largetracts of land, especially in Africa, to grow biofuels or food should be outlawed.Instead, we need to carefully analyze,country by country, what land and water isavailable for bioenergy, taking into accountsocial, environmental and economic issues.

Forestry companies, governmentsand conservationists need to identify areas of idle land (forests that have beencleared already but are no longer in use)where it may be possible to increaseyields of biomass with the least impacton biodiversity. South East Asia, Russiaand the Americas hold the most potential.WWF is supporting the ResponsibleCultivation Area concept, which aimsto identify land where production couldexpand without unacceptable biodiversity,carbon or social impacts. WWF is alsohelping to identify areas that should bemaintained as natural ecosytems andprimarily managed for conservationpurposes through schemes such as theHigh Conservation Value Framework.

We need to offset increased forest carbonemissions by stopping unsustainablefellings and deforestation. Schemes suchas REDD (Reducing Emissions fromDeforestation and Degradation), whichoffer developing countries incentives toconserve their forest carbon, will play an important role in this. We also needto promote and adopt community forestmanagement and other sustainable forestry practices.

Bioenergy production hasto be based on sustainability criteria with strong legal controls

binding legislation and strictenforcement at national andinternational levels. Voluntary standards and certi cationschemes, along the lines of theForest Stewardship Council,the Roundtable on SustainableBiofuels and the Better SugarcaneInitiative, also have a role toplay. Because much bioenergy will be produced in developingcountries, they will need supportto develop and implement thesestandards effectively.

As individuals, we need tomake more considered choicesabout the food we eat, thetransport we use, and otherlifestyle factors that in uenceglobal land use. Public policy should help to guide thesechoices.

We should limitgrowth in areas thatdepend on liquid fuels notably aviation,shipping and heavy goods vehicles atleast until we haveestablished a secureand sustainable supply of bioenergy. Thatmeans nding smarterways to transportgoods and people.These include usingmodes of transportthat dont dependon liquid fuels, andreducing the length andnumber of journeys, forexample by producingmore goods locally or working remotely instead of commuting.We also urgently needto research and developenergy alternatives forsectors that rely onbioenergy as the only alternative to fossilfuels.



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ALL LARGE-SCALE ENEINFRASTRUCTURE DEVEMUST SATISFY INDEPENDIN-DEPTH, SOCIAL AND

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACASSESSMENTS


Nat i onal Geogr aph i c S t oc k / J as on E d war d s / WWF


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BIOETHANOLIn the Brazilian region of Ribeiro Preto,cattle farmers grow sugarcane on someof their land that was previously used for

grazing. The sugarcane is used to producebioethanol. Cane residues are fed to thecows, making-up for the loss of pasture. Asthere are still only a few cattle per hectare,animal welfare doesnt suffer, and farmersget an extra source of income.

THE SUGARCANE ISUSED TO PRODUCEBIOETHANOL.CANE RESIDUESARE FED TO THECOWS, MAKING-UPFOR THE LOSS OFPASTURE



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BIOETHANOLPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT


CASE STUD

E d war d P ar k er / WWF -C anon


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LIFESTYLE

How do thechoices we makein our own livesaffect energy supplies?Moving to a renewable

energy future doesntmean sacri cing

our quality of life.

TheEcofysscenarioshows that wecan supply almostall of our energy needsfrom renewable sources by 2050 while maintainingrates of economic growthand leading prosperous,healthy lifestyles. Indeed,

quality of life for many willimprove immeasurably with access to electricity and clean energy.

We will, though, needto make wiser choicesabout the way we useenergy. Lifestyle changeswill allow us to reach arenewable energy futurewhile reducing our impacton the planet. Since theanticipated need forbioenergy may pushour forests, agriculturalland and freshwaterecosystems to the limit, weparticularly need to look at what we can do to limitbioenergy demand andland-use while aiming at100 per cent renewablesand make more land andwater available to sustainpeople and nature.


CRITICAL LIFE-STYLE CHOICES


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To grow enough food to nourish a growingglobal population, while also havingenough land available to meet potentialdemand for biofuels, many of us will needto change our diets. As mentioned, theEcofys scenario places limits on meatconsumption growth. If future meatconsumption is to be split more equitably,this would mean a halving of meatconsumption per person by 2050 in OECDcountries, and an increase by a quarterelsewhere. If we eat even less meat thanthis, then more land will be available togrow food or biofuel crops, or to return tonature.

Wasting less food will also save energy and free-up more land. According toTristram Stuart 25, around half of our

food is lost between eld and forkRich countries use up to four

times more food than theminimum requirements

of their populations

(after adding/subtractingimportsandexports);surplus is either fedinef ciently to livestock,causing a net loss in foodcalories, or it is wasted in thesupply chain, or eaten in excess of dietary requirements. Poor countrieshave much smaller food supplies: fewerarable crops are fed to livestock, and less iswasted in the home.

Reducing the distance that we transportfood and other goods will also reduce theneed for biofuels. The Ecofys scenariois based on established business-as-usual projections that predict steeprises in freight transport by 2050 morethan doubling in OECD countries andincreasing vefold elsewhere. If we cutrises in long-haul freight transport by athird compared to these projections, itwould reduce the land needed for growing

crops for transport by around 8per cent, or 21 million hectares.

Personal mobility is alsopredicted to rise by 2050.Projections show the overalldistance people travel willincrease by half in OECDcountries, and treble in the restof the world. Ecofys suggests wecan manage these increases if we move towards more ef cientforms of transport walking orcycling short distances, takingbuses, and taking the traininstead of ying.Improved communicationstechnology will make work more

exible and home-working moreviable in many jobs, reducingthe need to commute. Thiswould reduce congestion andimprove the work-life balance formany. All the same, we will need

massive investment in ef cientpublic transport systems, alongwith fundamental changes inattitudes and behaviour.

Particularly sharpincreases are expected

in aviationtransport, in

rich andpoor

countriesalike, andthe Ecofysscenario includesthese. Flying less wouldreduce the need for biofuelsin the future, and substantially reduce carbon emissions today.A cut in passenger air travelby a third compared to Ecofysprojections would reduce theland needed for growing cropsfor transport by an additional

19 million hectares.Videoconferencing andemerging innovativetechnologies couldreduce the need forbusiness travel. Peoplemay also choose totravel more slowly, orholiday closer to home.

Making lifestylechanges will taketime. Communitiesthat have collected

rewood from forestsfor centuries willnot switch to biogascookers overnight. Theattachment to largeand fast cars runs deepin Western society.But history shows thatpeople will change theirbehaviour when they

understand the bene tsand when policiessteer them in the rightdirection: recycling isnow second nature inmany countries, whilesmoking rates havefallen with growingknowledge of thehealth risks. A betterunderstanding of theimpact of our ownchoices will help us

move toward afair and fully

renewablefuture

inwhichpeople livein harmony with nature.

CHANGES IN LIFESTYPART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

25. Waste - Uncovering the Global FoodScandal. Tristram Stuart, 2009




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Source: placeholder


J ef f r ey A . S ay er / WWF -C anon


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WHAT NOW?PART 1: THE ENERGY REPORT

WHAT NOW? Every item we buy, all the food we eat,every journey we take uses energy. Allpeople need to be more aware of the impacttheir lifestyle has, and what they can doabout it.

The energy report - 100% renewable energy by 2050 (WWF/2011)

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Transcript of The energy report - 100% renewable energy by 2050 (WWF/2011)