The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

32
Steve Ellis Portfolio Manager Fixed Income The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity Madrid Perspectives Event 17 January 2013 This presentation is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors.

description

Presentación The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity en Madrid por Steve Ellis, Gestor de Renta Fija de Fidelity

Transcript of The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Page 1: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Steve EllisPortfolio ManagerFixed Income

The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Madrid Perspectives Event17 January 2013

This presentation is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors.

Page 2: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Evolution of the EM Debt asset classToday: A strategic component of asset allocation

Emerging market restructuring

(Brady Bond Plan)

Hard currency yield curve

development

Sovereign local market issuance

Rise of the EM corporatedebt market

Domestic yield curve extension

Hard currency debt buybacks

Corporate issuance exceeds sovereign

issuance

2

Why invest in emerging market bonds? EM bonds have demonstrated a resilience and passed a second stress test as the Eurozone crisis has not resulted in a

deterioration of EM fundamentals. EM countries account for almost 72% of the contribution to global growth and growing at four times that of DMs. EM fixed income asset class continues to grow with total EM debt outstanding across sovereign, corporates, and local

markets approaching $8 trillion EM is attractive to DM markets on a risk-adjusted basis with EM local yields remaining attractive to DM yields, offering

over 4% pick-up on a relative basis in nominal terms and 2.5% on a real basis to comparable government bonds Who invests in emerging market bonds? Pension funds: $1.7 trillion Insurance companies: $2.7 trillion Sovereign Wealth Funds: $4.3 trillion

1990s 2000s

EM DEBT MARKET

Source: FMR, BofA Merrill Lynch, September 2012

Page 3: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

EM Debt and currency markets at a glance

The best-performing asset class of the last decade on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis

A beneficiary of the search for yield among investors and a diversification away from debt-laden developed markets

A way to benefit from emerging economic growth without the higher volatility levels associated with equity investment

Stable government policies have combined with well-managed economic growth to drive the performance of emerging market debt

This is an ongoing story: emerging market fundamentals are forecast to go on improving, while developed-world governments face slower growth and large deficits

Frontier markets offer the opportunity to benefit from genuine ‘emergence’ - when some of the best capital gains can be made

However, most of the return from emerging market debt comes from income/carry

3

Page 4: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Sovereigns have recently issued predominantly in the local market Sovereigns now issue more frequently in the domestic market (87% of total sovereign issuance).

With local term structures shifting lower, governments have more incentive to issue locally (FX risk is borne by investors and not by the government).

Local pension funds’ AUM (US$ 1.7trn) and insurance companies’ AUM (US$ 2.7trn) haven risen dramatically which causes a natural bid for local currency debt.

Net issuance in local currency debt in 2012 has been low.

4

GBI-EM gross issuance (US$ bn)

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Bond Radar, J.P. Morgan, official sources.

Page 5: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Corporates issue more frequently in hard currencies

New issue market in the external EM market has been dominated by corporate supply

Share of corporate issuance in hard currencies is almost back to 2007 peak levels

Corporate issuance is equally split across regions: Asia (41%), EMEA (29%) and LATAM (30%)

Total outstanding EM corporate debt stands at US$2.9trn of which approximately one third is in investable hard currency bonds

5

Hard currency issuance (US$ bn)

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Bond Radar, J.P. Morgan, official sources, Sept 2012

Page 6: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

If you like EM equities, you should love EM debt... EM external debt was the best-performing asset class of the last 18 years on an absolute and risk-

adjusted basis.

EM Hard Currency debt has offered better risk-adjusted returns than most DM asset classes over the last three years.

EM local markets and corporates have experienced higher volatility due to FX moves and corporate defaults, but still have impressive Sharpe Ratios.

6

Sharpe RatiosCumulative performance (rebased 31.12.1993=100)

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Datastream, as at 31/07/2012. Rebased to 31.12.93 – first date of availability for JPM EMBIG data. US listed property is the FTSE/NAREIT EQUITY REITS $ Index.

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, J.P. Morgan, 31/07/2012

Page 7: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Higher quality higher returns higher inflows

Continued strong inflows into EM dedicated funds with inflows of US$32.6bn YTD.

Hard currency funds experienced the largest inflows with ~61% of total inflows YTD.

Flows into global EM funds are >90% of total flows as compared to regional dedicated funds.

7

EM Fund Flows (US$ bn)EMBI Global vs EM Hard Currency Fund Flows (US$ bn)

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, J.P. Morgan, December 2012Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Credit Suisse, EPFR Global, December 2012

Page 8: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Where do we go from here?

EM growth momentum is picking up. PMI data supportive going forward

Alpha is portable in EM. Three alpha sources: Credit, Rates and FX

FX looks like an attractive alpha source for 2013 with PMIs now ticking higher

EM FX has underperformed other EM assets due to the weak global growth backdrop and central bank currency wars

8

High correlation between EMFX returns and global PMIs

EM PMIs now ticking higher

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Bloomberg, December 2012Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, December 2012

Page 9: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

How much more can spreads tighten? EM spreads over treasuries are close to pre-global financial crisis levels

Appetite for yield, and the lack of spread products due to QE likely to encourage further spread tightening. Investors likely to be pushed further down the risk spectrum

Some obvious threats are: default rates rising / pick up in volatility caused by some tail risk event. But as we shall see, there are other risks

9

Index spreads over UST (bps)

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Bloomberg, December 2012

Page 10: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Key risks in EM Debt Heavy refinancing needs in H1 2014.

Unintended consequences of QE with increasing inflation and asset bubbles.

Increase in UST yields from record lows (Great Rotation).

10

Inflation projections, CPI (%)EM HY refinancing needs (US$ bn)

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, ING, Oct 2012. Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Credit Suisse.

Page 11: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

11

EM Debt:Three opportunity sets

USD EM Hard Currency EM Local Currency EM Corporate

Market Capitalization (billion$)

$579**JP Morgan EMBI Global

$1535**JP Morgan GBI-EM Broad Diversified

$265**JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified

Investability Highly investable Wide variability: from highly investable to fully

uninvestable

Still very much a primary market but investablility

continues to grow as issuer base broadens

Foreign Exchange Risk No Yes No

# of Issuers 55 16 372

Quality BBB- A- BBB

Analytical Approach Top down & Bottom Up Top Down Bottom-Up

Fidelity fund range:Two existing fundsTwo proposed new funds

FF Emerging Market Debt FundLaunched January 2006AUM: $1178mManaged by Steve Ellis

FF Emerging Market Inflation-linked Bond FundLaunched November 2011AUM: $110mManaged by Andy Weir

FF Emerging Market Local Currency Debt FundProposed launch March 2013Managed by Steve Ellis

FF Emerging Market Corporate Debt FundProposed launch March 2013Managed by Andrei Gorodilov

Source: JP Morgan, 31/12/2012FIL Limited fund AUM as at 30/11/2012

Page 12: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

12

Appendix

Page 13: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

13

Steve EllisEM Portfolio Manager

Steve EllisFund Manager

Based in London

Investment Experience19 years

EducationBristol University, BSc (Hons) Economics

Investment Experience

Commence managing FF-Emerging Market Debt Fund November 5, 2012

Goldman Sachs Asset ManagementEmerging Markets Local Currency Debt and FX, Portfolio Manager

2006– 2012

Lehman BrothersGlobal Head of Local Market Strategy 2001-2006

ING BaringsGlobal Research, Fixed Income Strategist 1997-2001

NatWestEconomist 1993-1997

Source: FIL Limited, November 2012* Local Currency EM Bond pilot launched 3rd September 2012

Page 14: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Dedicated EM sovereign research analyst,trader and Asian PM

14

Andressa TezineEM Research Analyst

Paul GreerEM Trader

Eric WongPortfolio Manager

• Since 2005, Andressa worked for Pinebridge Investments as the Head of Research for the Emerging markets Fixed Income

• From 1996-2005 Andressa worked for ABN AMRO in Sao Paulo (1996-2005), Brazil as a Treasury Senior Economist

• From 1995-1996 she worked at Banco Itamorati as an Economics Analyst

• She started her career in the Treasury department at Unibanco (1993-1995).

• Education:

– Universidade Sao Paulo, Economics

– Universitat Pompeu Fabre in Barcelona , MSc in Economics & Management

• Prior to joining Fidelity Paul was at Pinebridge Investments since 2006 as Head of Fixed Income and Listed Equity Trading

• Prior to that Paul worked at the Bank of Ireland Global Markets in Dublin in Wholesale FX and Money Market operations since 2001.

• He traded credit, rates and was a principal dealer

• He gained his FSA Securities and Financial Derivatives qualification in 2003.

• Education

– The Queen’s University of Belfast

– Bachelors degree with Honours

– 2.1 Electrical and Electronic Engineering

• Prior to joining Fidelity Paul was Portfolio Manager at BlackRock where he managed over $18 billion of emerging market bonds since 2002.

• He was responsible for generating alpha by country selection, curve relative value and new issues participation

• Developed and launched exchange traded funds for emerging market corporates and emerging market high yield

• Collaborated with research desk to enhance existing investment models and developed new trading strategies to provide high capacity alpha to portfolios.

• Education

– BA, Economics with minors in Computer Science & Spanish

– Stanford University

Source: FIL Limited, November 2012

Page 15: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

EM Debt coverage across the fixed income team

15

Credit & StructuredResearch

KEY: London BasedHong Kong BasedIndia BasedTokyo Based Those in bold report directly to A Wells

Andrew Wells Global CIO of Fixed Income & ISG

Trading

Juan LandazabalHead of Trading

Andrew FalcoSenior Trader

Naomi HaynesSenior Trader

Andrew MartinTrader

Robbie TaylorTrader

Olivier SzwarcbergHead of Credit & Structured Research

Kristian AtkinsonSenior Credit Analyst

Michael DolanSenior Credit Analyst

Tiago ParenteSenior Credit Analyst

Andressa TezineSovereign Analyst

Sabita PrakashHead of Asian Fixed Income

Nitesh KathuriaResearch Associate

Katsumi IshibashiSenior Credit Analyst

Marton HueblerQuantitative Analyst

Claudio FerrareseQuantitative Analyst

Paul WoodHead of Trading & Research Operations

Oliver FawcettHead of PMS

Quantitative Research

Freddy WongTrader

Dierk BrandenburgSenior Credit Analyst

John DavySenior Credit Analyst

Jonathan NeveCredit Research Associate

Tim CraigenHead of Analytics

Richard HomerAnalytics Specialist

Maria AbbonizioHead of Investment Operations

Fred KamSenior Credit Analyst

Gary WillisTrade Support

Jane O’BrienResearch Support

Investment Operations

Tae Ho RyuAssociate Trader

Simoni MittalCredit Research Associate

Martin DropkinSenior Credit Analyst

Federico WynneCredit Analyst

Liam KellyQuantitative Research Associate

Ario Emami-NejadJunior Trader

Henry MakSenior Manager, Investment Services

Quentin LafossePMS Analyst

Gita BalSenior Credit Analyst

Sifa ClarkTrading and Data Projects

Sanjeev DesaiTrade Support

Arezou PhilsouphQuantitative Developer

Rebecca MottaCredit Research Associate Change Management

Virginia GallowayBusiness Change Manager

Tara LallyChange Manager

Christopher EllingerPMS Analyst

Andy WeirPortfolio Manager

Ian SpreadburyPortfolio Manager

Ian FishwickPortfolio Manager

David SimnerPortfolio Manager

Tim FosterPortfolio Manager

Rick PatelPortfolio Manager

Peter KhanPortfolio Manager

Bryan CollinsPortfolio Manager

Portfolio Management

Andrei GorodilovPortfolio Manager

Stuart RumbleProduct Manager

Rahul Kathuria Product Specialist

Namrata NandaProduct Specialist

Dylan NgaiResearch Associate

Andy Howse Team Leader - Portfolio Managers & European Product

Paola DelgadoProduct Specialist Graduate

David LagrangeCompetitor Fund Analyst

Investment Directors

Kevin LooProduct Manager

Gregor CarleInvestment Director

Trista CheungAssociate Investment Director

Tristan CooperSovereign Analyst

Hiroki Hashimoto Investment Graduate

Patrick HallerInvestment Graduate

Lars SalmonSenior Trader

Duncan FraserSenior Trader

Stuart CollingsSenior Credit Analyst

Richard MeachinJunior Trader

Aran GordonProduct Manager

Constance de WavrinProduct Manager

Joe HanmerInvestment Graduate

Katie TutcherPMS Analyst

Jeremy ChurchAssistant Portfolio Manager

Torquil MacleodSenior Credit Analyst

Tobias BraceyProduct Specialist

Kathryn BarrowResearch Support

Camille FlorentinJunior Analytics Specialist

Sabina AwanSenior Change Analyst

Jack AdamsonBusiness Management Graduate

AsiaInvestment Operations

Business Change Management

Steve EllisPortfolio Manager

Jenny Lee (Maternity Leave)Credit Analyst

Konstantinos KorrovesisSenior Analytics Specialist

Rob MiddletonHead of FI Investment Operations

Paul GreerTrader

Fan ZhangResearch Associate

Stephen BramleyInvestment Graduate

Quan YuanInvestment Graduate

Nishan PradhanResearch Associate

Ashley-Anne BerryJunior Analytics Specialist

Farshad SafaeiApplication Developer

Jasmina KolevaCredit Research Associate

Jonathan KokFI Associate

Eric WongPortfolio Manager

David BuckleHead of Quantitative Research

Portfolio Management

Investment Director -TBH

Asia – Fixed Income

Asia-Investment Directors

Asia - Trading

15

Investment professionalswith full or partial

EM debt responsibility

Source: FIL Limited, 01/01/2013

Page 16: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Summary:

The EM team focuses on the management of emerging market external, local and corporate bonds and currencies.

Leveraging the broader research resources available throughout Fidelity Worldwide Investment

They seek to generate alpha from solid credits with strong fundamentals.

The investment philosophy reflects the fact that alpha is portable so they construct optimal portfolios with a mix of emerging market instruments that reflects Fidelity Worldwide Investment’s view on emerging markets.

This is achieved through a combination of fundamental and quantitative modeling techniques that are the backbone of the investment process

EM DebtHow we add value

Client Guidelines

Portfolio Management

Portfolio Management

Portfolio Analytics

Quantitative Modeling

Trading

Portfolio Managers

Sovereign

Currency

16

Source: FIL Limited, November 2012

Page 17: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Sources of potential alphaExternal, local, FX, corporates

17

External debt Local rates FX Corporates

Evaluate country balance sheets

Inter-country rate levels & yield curve

FX valuation Fundamental research/corporate market

Are we being adequately compensated?Analyse-Economic growthBalance of paymentsPolitical environmentGovernment transparencyFinancial systemFiscal policyLevel of debt/compositionSecurity selection-Relative value

Identifying value in local debtCountry /risk selectionValueFX ratesFX riskSecurity’s fair valueResearch inflation breakeven vs. inflationEvaluate yield curve

Short term-Investor positioningSentimentRisk appetiteMedium term-GrowthMonetaryFiscalCurrent accountCapital accountLong term-PPPProductivityTradeDemographics

Fundamental analysis-Credit analysisCorporate governanceTechnical analysis-LiquidityYield curveSovereign analysis-Business environmentRegulatory environmentFX controls

Source: FIL Limited, November 2012

Page 18: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Overview of our EM Bond investment process

18

The EMD team at FIL are fundamental investment managers, but use “HeatMaps” and “Scorecards” to assist in data screening and portfolio construction.Stage 1: The HeatMap ranks countries’ creditworthiness, using factors such as fiscal solvency, balance of payments and growth dynamics.Stage 2:The Scorecards then help the EMD team decide how best to express a particular view on a country: i.e. via FX, duration, or external debt (or a mixture). The scorecards are a powerful way of combining valuation metrics and trading rules to identify alpha opportunities in EM.

EMD MacroHeatMap

Local FX Scorecard Local Rates Scorecard

External Debt Scorecard

Top-down analysis to screen countries’ creditworthiness

Bottom-up analysis using quant tools to rank important drivers of alpha

Source: FIL Limited, 30/11/2012

Page 19: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

FF Emerging Market Debt Fund Performance

Ranking in Global Emerging Bond** Universe

1 year 26 of 117 1st quartile

3 years 45 of 69 3rd quartile

5 years 14 of 60 1st quartile

Fidelity Funds Emerging Market Debt

JP Morgan EMBI Global

Active Return

2007 4.6 6.3 (1.7)

2008 -19.5 -10.9 (8.7)

2009 45.6 28.2 17.4

2010 10.8 12.0 (1.2)

2011 3.1 8.5 (5.4)

YTD 2012 16.1 15.7 0.5

1919

Annual Performance in % Performance (%) as of October 31, 2012

Source: FIL Limited as of 31/10/2012. Performance is gross and net of fees and in US Dollar terms. Calculation basis is NAV-NAV with gross income reinvested.**Source: Morningstar *Inception 1/23/2006

Page 20: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

EM credit quality has been improving

EM have proven resilient as the Euro debt crisis has not resulted in any significant deterioration of EM fundamentals.

Average public debt-to-GDP ratio at 34%, and fiscal deficits currently average only 2.2% of GDP, broadly unchanged from 2007.

EMBI universe is predominantly Investment Grade (63%) and the average rating has stabilised at Baa2/BBB. EM sovereigns have experienced 194 upgrades (vs.154 downgrades) across 54 countries by the three rating

agencies since the start of the global financial crisis. DM sovereigns on the other hand experienced only 15 upgrades (vs.132 downgrades) during the same

period.

20

% of EMBIG market capitalization by ratings bucket

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, J.P. Morgan.

Page 21: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Risk-return trade-off is most favourable in Credit Markets

21

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Credit Suisse.

Page 22: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Default risks in Emerging Markets

EM corporate default rate bottomed at 0.74% in September 2011 but has since increased to 4.09%.

Total EM default rates remained below 3%.

EM default cycles have been decreasing over the past decade in magnitude and length, but timing the default cycle remains important.

22

Speculative grade corporate and total EM default rates (%)

In the 2001-2003 cycle, EM speculative gradedefaults peaked at 30.85% with US$41bn ofdefaults recorded over the period.

The EM corporate default ratebottomed at 0.74% in September ‘11

versus 2.08% in November ‘10. But, it has since increased to 4.09% in Oct ’12.

The more recent 2008/09 cycle witnessedUS$29bn worth of corporate defaults. Given the growth of the outstanding corporate bond marketthe default rate peaked at 13.87%.

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment, ING.

Page 23: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

1YR EMBIG total return scenarios

23

Base case (moderate growth upturn)EMBIG yield (as of 14 Nov) 4.68%Losses from defaults per yr ‐0.5%

Probability 70% EMBIG Spread change (%) ‐20% from 302 to 242 (DTS= 1687 )10y UST yields (bp change) 15 from 1.59 to 1.74 (IR dur= 7.1 )

Expected 1y total return  % 6.5%

Bear case (fiscal cliff / EU implosion)EMBIG yield (as of 14 Nov) 4.68%Losses from defaults per yr ‐2.0%

Probability 15% EMBIG Spread change (%) 50% from 302 to 453 (DTS= 1687 )10y UST yields (bp change) ‐50 from 1.59 to 1.09 (IR dur= 7.1 )

Expected 1y total return  % ‐2.2%

Bull case (QE continues / EM allocations increase)EMBIG yield (as of 14 Nov) 4.68%Losses from defaults per yr ‐0.5%

Probability 15% EMBIG Spread change (%) ‐50% from 302 to 151 (DTS= 1687 )10y UST yields (bp change) 10 from 1.59 to 1.69 (IR dur= 7.1 )

Expected 1y total return  % 11.9%

1y EMBIG weighted expected total return 6.0%

Source: Fidelity Worldwide Investment.

Page 24: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Objectives

24

Mission statement: “Quantitative screening of Emerging Market data to identify alpha opportunities in order to assist fundamental portfolio construction”

Page 25: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

FIL’s EM Interface

All models are available at the click of a button

HeatMap and Scorecards are networked-based. Available to all in FIL.

25

Page 26: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

EM Investment ApproachHeatMaps: Quant screen to rank countries

Sovereign “HeatMaps” are utilised to determine the creditworthiness of individual countries

This is based on the analysis of specific factors and sub-factors– (e.g. growth, inflation, fiscal, balance of payments, banking and credit and the political environment)

26

Source: FIL August, 2012

Page 27: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Summary of Investment Process

FIL’s quant models have been built with the purpose of trying to express a view on an EM country in the most optimal way.

FIL EM team start by scanning the HeatMap, and looks for countries with solid fundamentals. The team then uses the scorecards to identify the best way to express a view: FX / rates / external debt.

The quant models are used by other Portfolio Managers within FIL. There are no silos at FIL!

27

Page 28: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

FF Emerging Market Debt FundCurrent investment guidelines

At least two-thirds of portfolio in dollar denominated sovereign/quasi sovereign

Interest Rate Duration: Within +/- 20% of benchmark duration

Stand alone maximum allocations:– Corporate bonds: 20%

– Emerging Market Equity: 20%

– Local Currency Debt: 20%

– Combination of all three: not to exceed one-third of portfolio

Maximum Country overweight: 10%; large countries will typically not have zero allocation

28

Page 29: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

FF Emerging Market Debt Fund : Portfolio Characteristics

29

Source: FIL Limited, 31/12/2012,

Portfolio Characteristics as 31/08/2012 Risk/Return Characteristics as 31/12/2012

Fund Index

Duration 7.08 7.16

Yield to Worst (YTW) 4.10 3.81

Ave. Maturity 13.04 12.56

Ave. Coupon 6.32 6.66

Spread Duration 7.23 7.33

OAS 273 257

DTS 1612 1602

Ave. Bond Price 116.91 118.67

Number of Holdings 224 330

Number of Issuers 111 93

Average Rating BB+ BB

3 Yr

Beta 1.11

Alpha ‐0.28

R‐Squared  0.86

Annualised Standard Deviation 7.83

Sharpe Ratio ‐ Portfolio 1.33

Sharpe Ratio‐Comparative Benchmark  1.89

Annualised Tracking Error  3.00

Information Ratio  ‐0.74

29

Page 30: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Country allocation

Source: FIL Ltd 31/12/2012

30

Page 31: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

FF Emerging Market Debt FundTop 10 active o/w holdings

Description Relative Risk Weight

(CHILE) Republic of Chile 3.73%

(PDVSA) Petroleos De Venezuela S 1.58%

(ADGB) Emirate of Abu Dhabi 1.58%

(T) United States of America 1.36%

(WIT) United States of America 1.10%

(SLOVEN) Republic of Slovenia 0.83%

(ARGBON) Argentine Republic 0.83%

(BHRAIN) Kingdom of Bahrain 0.78%

(SLOVAK) Slovak Republic 0.73%

(ALRSRU) Alrosa Finance Sa 0.67%

Source: FIL Ltd, 31/12/2012

31

Page 32: The Emerging Market fixed income opportunity

Important information

32

This information is for Investment Professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. It must not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission. This communication is not directed at, and must not be acted upon by persons inside the United Kingdom or the United States and is otherwise only directed at persons residing in jurisdictions where the relevant funds are authorised for distribution or where no such authorisation is required. Research professionals include both analysts and associates. Fidelity/Fidelity Worldwide Investment means FIL Limited and its subsidiary companies. Unless otherwise stated, all views are those of Fidelity.Top security holdings are those securities in which the largest percentage of the fund’s total assets are invested. Holdings in different securities issued by the same company are listed separately and any exposure achieved by derivatives is not shown. This means that the data may not always represent the total exposure of the portfolio to any given company. A full list of holdings, including derivatives is available on request. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only. Investors should also note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon by Fidelity. The research and analysis used in this documentation is gathered by Fidelity for its use as an investment manager and may have already been acted upon for its own purposes. Fidelity only offers information on its own products and services and does not provide investment advice based on individual circumstances. Fidelity, Fidelity Worldwide Investment, the Fidelity Worldwide Investment logo and F symbol are trademarks of FIL Limited. Fidelity Funds is an open-ended investment company established in Luxembourg with different classes of shares. Reference to FF before a fund name refers to Fidelity Funds. Holdings can vary from those in the index quoted. For this reason the comparison index is used for reference only. This document may not be reproduced or circulated without prior permission. No statements or representations made in this document are legally binding on Fidelity or the recipient. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments can go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount invested. For funds that invest in overseas markets, changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of an investment. Foreign exchange transactions may be effected on an arms length basis by or through Fidelity companies from which a benefit may be derived by such companies. The value of bonds is influenced by movements in interest rates and bond yields. If interest rates and so bond yields rise, bond prices tend to fall, and vice versa. The price of bonds with a longer lifetime until maturity are generally more sensitive to interest rate movements than those with a shorter lifetime to maturity. The risk of default is based on the issuer's ability to make interest payments and to repay the loan at maturity. Default risk may therefore vary between different government issuers as well as between different corporate issuers. The investment policy of this fund means it can be more than 35% invested in Government and public securities. These can be issued or guaranteed by other countries and Governments. For a full list please refer to the fund's prospectus.We recommend that you obtain detailed information before taking any investment decision. Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus, which is available along with the current annual and semi-annual reports free of charge from our distributors, from our European Service Centre in Luxembourg;For the purposes of distribution in Spain, Fidelity Funds is registered, with the CNMV Register of Foreign Collective Investment Schemes under registration number 124, where complete information is available from Fidelity Funds authorised distributors. The purchase of or subscription for shares in Fidelity Funds shall be made on the basis of the Key Investor Information Document (KIIDS) that investors shall receive in advance. The Key Investor Information Document (KIIDS) is available free of charge and for inspection at the offices of locally authorised distributors as well as at the CNMV ; Issued by FIL Investments International (FSA registered number 122170) a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. FIL Investments International is a member of the Fidelity Worldwide Investment group of companies and is registered in England and Wales under the company number 1448245. The registered office of the company is Oakhill House, 130 Tonbridge Road, Hildenborough, Tonbridge, Kent TN11 9DZ, United Kingdom. Fidelity Worldwide Investment’s VAT identification number is 395 3090 35.FIPM 383