Effects Based Operations within the United Kingdom Joint Force Air Component Headquarters
description
Transcript of Effects Based Operations within the United Kingdom Joint Force Air Component Headquarters
22ISMOR
Effects Based Operations within the United Kingdom Joint Force
Air Component Headquarters
22ISMOR
George Onslow & Geraldine Wrigley
Defence Science & Technology Laboratory&
Air Warfare Centre Royal Air Force&
UK JFACHQ
I ..
.
..
22ISMOR
Outline
• Why the RAF has embraced EBO• UKJFACHQ• Role of OA• Assessment of EBO - OEA• The JFACHQ Process• Issues• Conclusion
22ISMOR
What this Paper will not Discuss
• EBO in detail• JFACHQ in detail
• NB The term EBO will be used throughout rather than EBA etc. No subtle distinctions are meant by this
22ISMOR
Precision Campaign Effects At Range, In Time
RAF Strike Command Mission Directive 2005
22ISMOR
JFACHQ• The Joint Force Air Component HQ is the
deployable military C2 HQ for Air operations.• It is held on high readiness and has a cadre of
some 70 officers and other ranks• The Joint Force Air Component Commander is
responsible to the Joint Force Commander for the planning and prosecution of air operations.
22ISMOR
OA in the JFACHQ
• JFACHQ has an embedded OA team of civilian analysts
• Analysts normally deploy on exercise and operations
• Analysts may reachback to AWC and wider MoD Science Community
22ISMOR
A Warning• EBO is immature - much remains to be done
(and is being done)– Development of understanding of cognitive
processes and how they may be targeted– Incorporation of other instruments of power -
Diplomatic and Economic into a cohesive whole• The JFACHQ approach (and especially the OA
contribution) is very much work in progress
22ISMOR
Operations Effects Analysis (OEA)
• Analysis conducted at the tactical level to evaluate the success and progress of the operational plan with respect to the component objectives and phasing requirements of the campaign plan.
• “How are we doing in relation to the plan”• Previously known as Combat Analysis
22ISMOR
Strategy to TaskGovernment Strategic Objective
Operational Objective
Operational Sub-Objective
Tactical Objective
Tactical Task
Missions
22ISMOR
OEA - Planning
• JFACHQ uses 5-stage process called the Objectives to Metrics Methodology1 (OMM)
• Stages are Identify, Define, Frame, Assign and Establish Metrics
1. Lee and Kupersmith 2002
22ISMOR
OEA - Planning 2
• Identify – Derive the desired effects from the JFC intent statement.
• Define – Define the effect from doctrinal sources if possible, if not agree a definition with JFACC’s approval.
• Frame – Determine the questions that ‘frame’ or ‘encompass’ the effects required.
22ISMOR
OEA - Planning 3
• Assign – Link effects to targets.• Establish Metrics – Determine the metrics
that answer the framing questions.
22ISMOR
OEA - Metrics
• The final stage of Establishing Metrics is the key part of the process
• The metrics must be relevant (obviously) but also must be collectable
• Therefore advice is sought from A2 Collections staff as to the ‘collectability’ of a proposed metric
22ISMOR
SIs and MOEs
• Success Indicators and Measures of Effect are the metrics applied to Objectives and Tasks.
• Names are to some extent historical and MOE in particular is probably not the best name for the metric concerned.
22ISMOR
Success Indicator (SI)
• The range of consequences to be observed that indicate the successful achievement of an effects-based objective.
• an occurrence or event that can be collected by Intel and provides an indication that the employed action is having the desired effect. Normally expressed in effects terms
22ISMOR
Measure of Effect (MOE)• A predetermined criteria, parameter or set of
conditions that indicates the level of achievement for a defined action, normally refers to a tactical task that can be readily measured in terms of physical achievement.
• A quantity that can be measured and that demonstrates whether things are occurring according to plan. Normally expressed in terms of sorties flown, targets hit etc.
22ISMOR
Strategy to Task Incorporating OEA metrics
Government Strategic Objective
Operational Objective
Operational Sub-Objective
Tactical Objective
Tactical Task
Missions
Success Indicator 1Success Indicator 2
Success Indicator 1Success Indicator 2Success Indicator n
Success Indicator 1
Measure of Effectiveness 1Measure of Effectiveness 2
22ISMOR
OEA - Assessment
• Assessment of the values against the SIs and MOEs is carried out by the analyst.
• There is no automatic or pre-set weighting involved in the process.
• Analyst will take advice from ‘experts’ when formulating the assessment.
• Analyst will establish a confidence level in the assessment.
22ISMOR
Reporting of OEA
• JFACC normally briefed twice daily• Normally 2 or 3 slides presented in Main
Brief• Issues normally briefed in Strategy Brief • Complete OEA briefing is 80+ slides
22ISMOR
Top Level - Campaign Schematic with Decisive Points
1
Early I&Westablished IOT
inform force entry
3
Establish and deployadvance force
5
Establishcoalition ISR
matrix
4
Physically isolate RJL from KL
External
Internal
Secure
10
Establish zone ofseparation
7
Demonstrateresolve andcapability
11
Disrupt RKLOSLoC
6
EstablishAir Control
Shape
Shape Secure
H L L
MM
M
H
No EffectWell shortApproachingAchievedBorder Colour-Status last briefed
Task not startedTask just begunTask nearly completeTask complete
22ISMOR
Objectives & Success Indicators
• Traffic Light system used.• May include
– Confidence level– Expected value
22ISMOR
Objectives & Success Indicators 2Key
No indications of ExpectedEffects (for given stage of Ops)
Achieving Effect Required
Red
Yellow
Green
Amber
Black Objective Not Yet Undertaken
Effects Well short of thoseFinally Expected (not necessarilyan issue
Effects Approaching thoseFinally Expected
White No Data (INTEL) for Assessment
R
W
G
Y
A
B
22ISMOR
Tactical Tasks & MOEs
• Achievement of Tactical Tasks and their associated MOEs are shown by a slider bar– Colour of Bar is colour of overarching
objective.
22ISMOR
Tactical Tasks & MOEs 2
ETC ATO D
0% 40% 80%
Previous assessment
Position of bar indicates achievement
O - On TimeA - Ahead Planned EffortB - Behind Planned Effort
A
ETC - Estimated Date of Completion
22ISMOR
CAPT
• Prototype tool• Database to hold Strat to Task Hierarchy
and associated metrics.• Allow analyst to record assessments against
metrics• Produces powerpoint briefing with
hyperlinking of hierarchy
22ISMOR
Shortcomings of Current Approach
• Unwanted effects are non considered in a formal way
• Management of Risk
22ISMOR
Management of Risk
• Consider the JFACCs problem when managing risk
• If a Weapon system has been destroyed it can’t be used - Risk is low
• If that weapon system has been neutralised by (say) the operator being convinced that it would be a bad idea to use it, then the risk of that weapon being used is higher
22ISMOR
Problems and Issues with EBO from the JFACHQ Perspective
• EBO is immature.• EBO doctrine is still emerging. Good work
has been done but more remains• The UK does not conduct operations using
all instruments of power in a coherent way• Assessment of EBO is not yet ‘joined up’.
22ISMOR
Problems and Issues 2
• EBO will require a large and diverse range of data sources. Developing this set will be a challenge.
• Adding ‘cognitive’ type effects to exercises will be difficult. This will impact on training and the development of OEA
22ISMOR
The Future for OEA
• Need to ensure that we keep abreast of developments in EBO
• Need to ensure that any OEA toolset is integrated into other Air C2 systems
• Need to develop relationship with other component HQs
• Need to establish ways of training and exercising capability
22ISMOR
Haven’t We Always Done EBO?• In 1944 603 Sqn were tasked against Greek
Town of Kalymos (held by the Germans).• “Four Beaufighters are to demonstrate over
the target area from 1645 to 1700 Oct 17. Aircraft are not (repeat) not to open fire but are to leave no doubt in the minds of the enemy that their fate is sealed if resistance continues”
22ISMOR
Questions ?