The Disruptive Curmudgeon's Status Report on Real Time Communications Dean Bubley, Disruptive...

A Curmudgeon’s Guide to RTC:Market Status

Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

TADSummit, Lisbon, November 2016

[email protected] @disruptivedean

mailto:[email protected]

Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis

Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991 Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecasting Cross-silo, contrarian, independent Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016November 2016

Network Tech, Policy & Business Models

Communications Apps & Services Telco-Futurism*

*Corporate astrology, per AQ

The world is polarising between open / closed

LiberalismEqualities

Entrepreneurialism Internet/SocialCollaboration

AuthoritarianismInequalitiesInterference

CentralisationAutonomy


“The 21st Century is a Terrible Time to be a Control Freak”Alec Ross, The Industries of the Future

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016

5 parallel trends for the telecom industry. All link to RTC

Accelerating shift to IP PSTN switch-off, slow drift to IP in mobile

Faster networks, primarily for Internet/mobile The "software telco“ & the cloud Commoditisation of core services

Slow death of basic P2P telephony & SMS Drive for new services, APIs & sources of revenue

Intersection with “Orthogonal Futures” IoT, AR/VR, AI etc…

November 2016


Is the “Telecom Establishment” capable of evolving RTC?

Is Telecoms too important to leave up to Telcos?Is there too much “closed” Establishment control-freakery?


Peak Telephony

Many markets past peak telephony

Despite lower prices & more competition

Other voice / calling apps growing

Shift to messages & apps / notifications

Some move to video Enterprise use of UC &

conferencing

November 2016

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Total Outgoing Minutes of Telephony (fixed + mobile), billion

Source: Disruptive Analysis

-15%

-13%

-11%

+9%

Spain

Germany

France UK

Telephony v1.0 is “The Establishment” & is crumbling


Growth of VoLTE & VoWiFi means…… Not much.

Primary use cases are utilitarian / tech-driven: VoWiFi: Indoor coverage (mostly for operators with little <1GHz 4G spectrum) VoLTE: Eventual spectrum re-farming from 2G/3G to 4G/5G Complex implementation (esp VoLTE). Needs IMS, policy infrastructure, testing etc Maybe lower opex, when old CS core can be decommissioned

No new revenue / service opportunities Maybe lower churn / higher customer satisfaction

T-Mo US: 22m VoWiFi calls per day; 6.5m MAUs Vodafone UK: “Single-digit % of calls”

November 2016

Telephony v1.1 from The Establishment = Meh


What do all these technologies have in common?

November 2016

“Digital” won’t save the Telecoms Establishment either


RCS? Was dead, still dead, still trying to eat brains

November 2016

Let's go to the Winchester, have a pint, and wait for this to blow over.


“Anti-Establishment” doesn’t mean “disorganised”

November 2016


So what is cool in consumer comms?

November 2016


… future comms experiences much deeper than today

November 2016

[Whisper] “Close the deal, now!”

Anger detected: change script / escalate to mgr

“The person you are calling is at the airport & running”

20K followers on Twitter! Influential so offer video call

Person is outdoors: mask background

noise

“Please breathe into the phone’s

mic & then cough”


A quiet game-changer?

November 2016


UCaaS in middle of a variety of enterprise comms trends

November 2016

WCC & work-

streams

cPaaS & Verticals

Contact centres &

CRM

A2P messag-

ing

Cloud Security

Context, Video &

WebRTCSD-WAN & NaaS

UCaaSEnterprise RTC

has more migration from

establishment to anti-establishment


What about WebRTC? Billions of end-points

Hundreds of millions of occasional users Tens of millions of regular users

Consumer / B2C use is mostly mobile in-app Desktop & B2B use more patchy & browser-dependent Key use-cases (+ a long tail of niches)

Video-chat in messaging & social apps Conferencing / UC guest-access “Greenfield” UC apps Video in banking / insurance / health / education / expert services

Mixed adoption by telcos outside UC & PaaS services Some in-house development; some resale & partnership

November 2016


Next up: Voice, video, messaging intersect IoT

November 2016

Ordinary calls

Non-voice audio

Context data

Video calls/confs

Cognitive

AR / VR

Messaging

cPaaS

In- vehicle

Industrial IoT

Wear-ables

Smart city

Ag-Tech

Drones etcetc

www.disruptive-analysis.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedean

[email protected]

Skype:disruptiveanalysisappear.in/disruptiveanalysis


http://www.disruptive-analysis.com/

mailto:[email protected]

The Disruptive Curmudgeon's Status Report on Real Time Communications Dean Bubley, Disruptive...

Technology

Transcript of The Disruptive Curmudgeon's Status Report on Real Time Communications Dean Bubley, Disruptive...