Futurism: What does 2030 mean for...

Futurism: What does 2030 mean for Spectrum?Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

Spectrum Futures, Bangkok 18th September 2017

[email protected] @disruptivedean

Image Credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley unless stated

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Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis

Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991 Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy Cross-silo, contrarian, independent Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017

Network Tech, Policy & Business Models

Communications Apps & Services Telecom-Futurism

Key trends for the next 10-15 years


Automation & Robotics Smart Environments AI

New Vehicles & Transport Human Enhancement & Longevity New Dangers & Risks

We need to change our assumptions & semantics for 2030


Services Capabilities

Competition Substitution

Harmonisation Diversity

Managed Intelligent

Ubiquitous Tailored

Don’t assume “one size fits all”, technology or biz model


Monocultures: Harmonisation brings efficiency… and risks


What is a service provider?


MNOMVNO

TowerCoWISP

RoamingCar-SP

Private MNOPS-OrgSliceNOeSIM SP

Fixed telco Cable MSO

Biz. MSPAltNet

Fix-Wireless WholesaleFibreCoSD-WANSec-aaS

Community

Mobile Fixed

BroadcastSatellite

ISP/HostingVenueSP

cPaaSIndustrySP

CDNSDR-aaSMesh-aaS

IoT-SP

Other

What is a “service”?Subscription basis?Service vs. feature?Substitution risks?

Infrastructure? Boundary with software?

Decentralised?What is a 2030 CSP?

Uncertainties

What will the word “service” mean in 2030?

“Service” ITU Definition : “A set of functions offered to a user by an organisation”

This definition seems to exclude: A set of functions owned & self-provisioned by a user A set of functions offered to a developer by an organisation A set of functions embedded in a 3rd-party product or other non-radio service A set of functions made available as a public amenity A set of functions owned & consumed by an autonomous organisation A set of functions enshrined as a human right


Wireless “service providers” of the future?

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017September 2017 *Disclosure: Disruptive Analysis is an advisor to Ammbr

*

Many ways to solve any problem: arbitrage is everywhere


The same is true for connectivity options:Substitution parallels competition

Pervasive AI will deeply impact network demand & supply


Least-cost routing

Energy Management

Quasi-QoS

Edge / On-Device Compute

Autonomous & Offline

Path Optimisation

Capacity Planning

IoT data management

IIoT & Industry 4.0 has many domain-specific requirements


“National” licenses are necessary but not sufficient


Power station

Car factory

AirportOil refinery

Port

Offshore windfarm

Shared Spectrum rules could enable private, regional industrial-grade 5G/WiFi networks for IoT & Industry 4.0 (Perhaps with a blockchain register?)

Smart City

Sports Stadium

Multiple platforms & ecosystem diversity adds resilience


image: www.freeimages.co.uk

What might 2030 mean for spectrum policy?

IoT, AI, SDR & XaaS changes everything Rethink “services” & SPs Network ownership gets democratised / decentralised Industrial IoT brings new requirements National vs. Geo-specific licencing Many tech pathways for any “outcome” Question network “monoculture” vs “diversity”

Future spectrum policy must enable new models


www.deanbubley.comdisruptivewireless.blogspot.com@disruptivedean

[email protected]

Skype:disruptiveanalysis


http://www.disruptive-analysis.com/

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