The Cuban Missile Crisis

March 4, 2014

Overview

Operation Nadir

Why missiles in: four hypotheses

Why American blockade

Why withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba Analytic epilogue: three conceptual

frameworks for analysing foreign policy

Operation Anadyr 1959, first arms shipments from USSR to Cuba.

Further military assistance provided in 1962 By September 1962, Soviet arms in Cuba

included: Surface-to-air missiles Coastal defence ‘Sopka’ cruise missiles Patrol boats armed with anti-ship missiles Over 5,000 Soviet technicians and military personnel

September 8, 1962 - Soviet nuclear ballistic missiles (medium-range) arrive in Cuba, followed by nuclear warheads and nuclear bombs.

The shipping, unloading and delivery of the missiles to the construction site in Cuba not detected by US, until their deployment in the field.

Missile range map

October 14 1962- a U-2 plane flew over the areas where missiles were deployed, followed by further U-2 flights on October 15 and 17.

U.S. President Kennedy and his advisors were informed of the build-up in Cuba.

Soviet air defences had observed the over flights but had taken no action on 14 October. They presumably observed flights on 15 and 17 October as well.

Why missiles in: four hypotheses

President Kennedy and his senior advisors considered the following hypotheses for the build-up in Cuba:

Hypothesis 1: Cuban defence Hypothesis 2: Cold war politics Hypothesis 3: Missile power Hypothesis 4: Berlin - win, trade or trap

1) Cuban Defence US has made it clear it wants Castro

out & previously supported military action against Cuba Bay of Pigs Invasion (April, 1961)

However, missiles not the only way to deter invasion Risk increasing likelihood of invasion

2) Cold War Politics Idea that USSR putting missiles that

close to US would show it’s dominance Make US allies in Americas lose

confidence Problem: could have picked easier

method and in better location

3) Missile power In 1962 US had fairly significant

advantage over USSR in size of long range nuclear arsenal Moving missiles closer to US would help

Problem- not clear why problem was so urgent at that point that USSR felt need to take such a risky approach

4) Berlin- win, trade or trap Berlin as real motive of USSR Move to place missiles in Cuba part of

larger effort to force US out of Berlin Kennedy worried whatever US

response to Cuba, USSR would use on Berlin

Why the American blockade?

Avoid nuclear exchange with Soviet Union and convey to the world that it is not frightened to pursue its objectives.

October 22 1962, President Kennedy declared a ‘strict quarantine on all offensive military equipment under shipment to Cuba’.

The American blockade began on 24 October 1962.

Why the withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba? Exchange of correspondence

USSR- to remove missiles US- pledge not to invade Cuba

Remove missiles from Turkey at later date

October 28, Soviets announce withdrawal the missiles from Cuba.

3 conceptual frameworks for analyzing foreign policy Rational Actor model focuses on the goals

and objectives of the government. Organizational Behaviour model focuses on

the existing organizations and their standard operating procedures for (1) acquiring information, (2) defining feasible options, and (3) implementing programme.

Governmental Politics model focuses on the politics inside a government.

Rational actor model See government as unitary actor Seek to understand state’s goals &

objectives Identify options for addressing problem

and costs & benefits of each Use this analysis to identify best option

based on above info

Organizational behaviour model

Seek to identify the organizations that make up the government

Look at standard operating procedures (SOPs) of these organizations

Examine constraints and capabilities these SOPs put on ability to produce 1) information, 2) options and 3) implement choices

Identify the organizations with biggest state in outcome chosen

Governmental politics model Government action as result of bargaining

between various players inside the government

Seek to identify the various players, the factors that shape their perceptions & preferences and their impact on the choice

Identify the ‘action channel’ Identify players with greatest stake in

outcome

Conclusions Three models together provide insight

into various aspects of the crisis and offer more complete explanation

Taken together, demonstrate how easily the crisis could have turned out differently