The Critical PathEnergy System Decarbonization

Stephen StrettonResearch Associate, Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research (4CMR) http://www.4cmr.org

Founder, Cambridge Zero Carbon Societyhttp://www.zerocarbonnow.org

2nd June 2009

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ContentsEnergy System Decarbonization

• Why?

• Terminology

• Carbon

• Rough Numbers for UK (Physics)

• Land

• Cost

• Rough Numbers for UK (Economics)

• The Critical Path

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Why?

Why? Energy demand is rising rapidly

* In agreement with the recommendations from the Royal Commission for Environmental PollutionSources: Reference Scenario, IEA (2004) World Energy Outlook; A1T Scenario IEA (2003) Energy to 2050

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

En

erg

y D

eman

d (

GW

)

Reference Scenario

Fast Economic Growth - A1T

Notes• All energy (not just electricity) is expressed in terms of GigaWatts (GW)*.• 1 Gigawatt = 0.75 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent per year = 8.8 Terawatt-Hours per Year• 1 Gigawatt is the usual size of a nuclear power station or large coal power plant

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World Energy Consumption By Fuel

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World Electricity By Fuel Type

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Why?

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Carbon: Terminology

Carbon Emissions Per Person Per Year (tonnes CO2eq)

High Carbon ~10

Lower Carbon 4

Low Carbon 2

Ultra-low Carbon 1

Zero Carbon 0

Negative Carbon <0

*Imports of embodied energy not included

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Technology: Terminology

Technology LCA

gCO2eq/kwh

High Carbon Coal ~1000

Lower Carbon

Gas ~400

Low Carbon CCS ~150

Ultra-low Carbon

Renewables & Nuclear? ~5 to ~50

Zero Carbon (Decarbonize Lifecycle Costs) ~0

Negative Carbon

Reforestation

Biomass with CCS

Air capture

<0

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Source: Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology

Carbon: All Electricity Technologies

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CSD

‘Low-Carbon’Tech.

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Physics Rough Numbers

Total Per Person

Carbon Emissions 600million tCO2/yr + Imports

10 tCO2/yr

Energy Consumption

300GW 5kW

Electricity Consumption

~45GW 1kW

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Land

Energy Source

Density

MWavg/km2

Biomass ~0.5

Wind ~2-3

CSP ~15

See

www.withouthotair.com

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Do Everything… to Save the Planet!

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Unit Costs p per kWhLevelized Costs pence per kWh

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Coal (PC) Gas Nuclear£2bn/GW

Nuclear -£3bn/GW

Onshore Wind Offshore Wind Coal CCS

Waste & Decommissioning

Carbon Cost

Fuel Cost

O&M Costs

Investment Costs

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Economics Numbers

Total Per Person

GDP £1.2trillion/yr £20,000/yr

Public Spending £500billion/yr £8,000/yr

Market Value of Houses etc

£7trillion £100,000

National Debt £700billion £12,000

Other Liabilities

Old nukes / PFI / Pensions / Banks

~£500billion?

£70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn

£9,000

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Fiscal Reform

1.Tax ‘bads’

2.Remove tax on ‘goods’

3.Tax ‘rent’

• Fossil fuels are both a ‘bad’ and a ‘rent’

• So “change VAT to CAT”

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Investment Cost & Tax Revenue

• UK needs 300GW to sustain current energy use. 1GW costs ~£2bn.

• £600bn cost = 50% of one year’s GDP– UK energy spend ~£100bn on energy each year

– Cost of Trident £40bn total

• £100/tCO2 (10p/kgCO2) would– Add £50 to a barrel of oil

– 4p/kWh on gas

– 10p/kWh on coal

– 23p/litre on petrol

– Raise £60bn/yr initially

– £1000 citizens income or replace VAT

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Discussion Points• How do we scale up renewable R&D by a large factor &

coordinate internationally?

• How fast can we build a super-grid with CSP?

• Does doing one technology prevent us from doing another? Are possible supply chain shortages ‘across’ technologies or ‘within’ technologies

• If the cost of high and low carbon are the same, is there any financial limit on what we can do? Does tackling climate change then cost anything at all?

• If new technology costs more, is there a limited ‘pot’ of subsidy to be allocated to most promising technology?

• Can ‘inflexible’ technologies promote a path to electric-car charging, leading to further intermittent renewable power being easily integrated?

• Market Incentives (19th Century Railways) or State Intervention (20th Century Wars) or Both?

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Carbonomics meets Freakonomics…

Total Per Person

Carbon Emissions 600million tCO2/yr + Imports 10 tCO2/yr

Energy Consumption 300GW 5kW

Electricity Consumption

~50GW 1kW

Land Area ? ?

GDP £1.2trillion/yr £20,000/yr

Public Spending £500billion/yr

Market Value of Houses etc

£7trillion £100,000

National Debt £700billion £12,000

Other Liabilities

Old nukes / PFI / Pensions / Banks

~£500billion?

£70bn / £100bn / £200bn / £150bn

£9,000

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Conclusions: The Critical Path1. Public Understanding and Proposed Policy2. Skills and Capacity Building3. Govt Guarantee Carbon & Electricity Prices4. Secure Finance e.g. with ‘Climate Bonds’5. Start Energy Efficiency Rollout6. Build Energy Infrastructure7. Fiscal Reform: ‘VAT to CAT’8. Strategy transfer around the world9. Switch Transportation10.Complete Decarbonization of Britain and other countries11.Reforest the world12.Permanently avoid fossil fuel extraction

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Thanks for your attention!

Contact me:Stephen Strettonsjs53@cam.ac.uk

Links:http://www.4cmr.org

http://www.withouthotair.com http://www.zerocarbonnow.org