THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE:...

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0 This presentation has been prepared exclusively for use by analysts, institutional investors and their consultants, registered investment advisors, broker-dealers, and sponsors of plans with a minimum of 100 participants. It is not intended for, and should not be used with, small plan sponsors, plan participants, or the public in written or oral form or for any other purpose. THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY Copyright © 2019 by Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC. All rights reserved. Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC Lord Abbett Distributor LLC 90 Hudson Street, Jersey City, NJ 07302-3973 APRIL 2019 CFA Society Jacksonville Joseph M. Graham, CFA Investment Strategist

Transcript of THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE:...

Page 1: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

0

This presentation has been prepared exclusively for use by analysts, institutional investors and their consultants, registered investment advisors, broker-dealers, and sponsors of plans with a minimum of 100 participants. It is not intended for, and should not be used with, small plan sponsors, plan participants, or the public in written or oral form or for any other purpose.

THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT

CREDIT ANOMALY

Copyright © 2019 by Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC. All rights reserved.

Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC

Lord Abbett Distributor LLC

90 Hudson Street, Jersey City, NJ 07302-3973

APRIL 2019

CFA Society Jacksonville

Joseph M. Graham, CFA

Investment Strategist

Page 2: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

1

DURATION EXPOSURE COULD MEAN POOR RETURNS IN RISING RATES

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Duration (Years)

Yield to Maturity (%)

5.9 Years

3.28%

BLOOMBERG BARCLAYS U.S. AGGREGATE BOND INDEX: DURATION & YIELD (AS OF 12/31/2018)

Source: Bloomberg Barclays. Duration as represented by modified adjusted duration in years. Yield as represented by yield to maturity. Yield to maturity is the rate of return anticipated on a bond if held until it matures. Duration is a measure of the sensitivity of the price (the value of principal) of a fixed-income investment to a change in interest rates. Bps represents a basis point. One basis point equals 0.01%. Performance quoted above is historical. Past Performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. The historical data are for illustrative purposes only, do not represent the performance of any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment, and are not intended to predict or depict future results. Investors may experience different results. Due to market volatility, the market may not perform in a similar manner in the future. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment.

Hypothetical Returns for 5.9-Year Duration Fixed Income in Rising Rates

Rate Increase No Change +50bps +100bps +150bps +200bps

Price Return 0.00% -2.94% -5.87% -8.81% -11.74%

Yield 3.28% 3.28% 3.28% 3.28% 3.28%

Total Return 3.28% 0.34% -2.59% -5.53% -8.46%

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2

DURATION RISK DOMINATES OTHER RISKS IN THE AGGREGATE INDEX

78.2

71.8

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

-0.5

-1.2

-5.5

Curve

Total

Spread Gov-Related

Swap Spreads

Idiosyncratic

Credit default

Spread Securitized

Volatility

Spread Credit and EMG

BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018)

Source: Barclays POINT, Lord Abbett *Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index versus cash. Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses, and are not available for direct investment.

Page 4: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

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TERM PREMIUM AT HISTORICAL LOWS

US TREASURY TERM PREMIUM (AS OF 12/31/2018)

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. As represented by ACMTP10. Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses, and are not available for direct investment.

Investors are not currently being compensated for taking duration risk

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

10-Year Term Premium Average

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STOCK BOND CORRELATIONS

Core Bond Complement

Source: Stock-Bond Correlations, Macroeconomic Regimes and Monetary Policy https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3075816 Stock-bond correlation based on the NYSE-AMEX-NASDAQ value-weighted returns including dividends from the CRSP Stock File Indexes and the returns on 10-year U.S. government bonds. Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses, and are not available for direct investment.

US STOCK-BOND VERSUS US MONETARY POLICY GAP

Page 6: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

5

5

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18

Corr

ela

tion

Source: Bloomberg Barclays.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees and expenses and are not available for direct investment.

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13

Corr

ela

tion

Fed announces scale back on bond purchases

as part of quantitative easing program

Wage Inflation surprises to the Upside

ROLLING ONE-MONTH CORRELATIONS OF THE BLOOMBERG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE BOND

INDEX AND THE S&P 500 INDEX

STOCK BOND CORRELATIONS

Page 7: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

SHORT DURATION CREDIT

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SHORT MATURITY CREDIT: CONSISTENT EXCESS RETURNS

Short Maturity Credit

Source: Bloomberg Barclays, Bloomberg, and Morningstar, Inc. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. The value of an investment in fixed-income securities will change as interest rates fluctuate and in response to market movements. As interest rates fall, the prices of debt securities tend to rise. As rates rise, prices tend to fall. Treasuries are debt securities issued by the U.S. government and secured by its full faith and credit. Income from Treasury securities is exempt from state and local taxes. 1Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Year Government Index. 2ICE BofAML 1-3 Year Corporate Index. 3Bloomberg Barclays 1-3.5 Year CMBS Index. 4ICE BofAML ABS Fixed Rate 0-3 Year Index. 5Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Year High Yield Index. Rolling five-year returns as of 12/31/2018. Beginning dates for the rolling five-year return series are the inception dates of the respective indexes. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment.

Short maturity, credit-sensitive sectors have consistently generated higher

returns than short maturity Treasuries

SHORT-TERM BONDS RELATIVE TO TREASURIES1

(AS OF 12/31/2018)

96% 95% 92% 96%

Short Maturity

Investment-Grade Corporates2

Outperformed in

Short Maturity

Investment-Grade CMBS3

Outperformed in

Short Maturity

Investment-Grade ABS4

Outperformed in

Short Maturity

High Yield Bonds5

Outperformed in

Of Rolling Five-Year Periods

(01/01/1976-12/31/2018)

Of Rolling Five-Year Periods

(01/01/1997-12/31/2018)

Rolling Five-Year Periods

(01/01/1997-12/31/2018)

Of Rolling Five-Year Periods

(08/01/1988-12/31/2018)

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8

8

Source: Barclay’s POINT, Lord Abbett.

Based on the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

BB

B >

10 Y

ears

BB

B 9

-10 Y

ears

BB

B 8

-9 Y

ears

BB

B 7

-8 Y

ears

BB

B 6

-7 Y

ears

BB

B 5

-6 Y

ears

BB

B 4

-5 Y

ears

BB

B 3

-4 Y

ears

BB

B 2

-3 Y

ears

BB

B 1

-2 Y

ears

BB

B 0

-1 Y

ears

A >

10 Y

ears

A 9

-10 Y

ears

A 8

-9 Y

ears

A 7

-8 Y

ears

A 6

-7 Y

ears

A 5

-6 Y

ears

A 4

-5 Y

ears

A 3

-4 Y

ears

A 2

-3 Y

ears

A 1

-2 Y

ears

A 0

-1 Y

ears

AA

> 1

0 Y

ears

AA

9-1

0 Y

ears

AA

8-9

Years

AA

7-8

Years

AA

6-7

Years

AA

5-6

Years

AA

4-5

Years

AA

3-4

Years

AA

2-3

Years

AA

1-2

Years

AA

0-1

Years

AA

A 5

-6 Y

ears

AA

A 4

-5 Y

ears

AA

A 3

-4 Y

ears

AA

A 2

-3 Y

ears

AA

A 1

-2 Y

ears

AA

A 0

-1 Y

ears

BBB Credit Rating A Credit Rating AA Credit Rating AAA Credit Rating

SHARPE RATIOS FOR CORE FIXED INCOME BY QUALITY AND EFFECTIVE DURATION (01/01/1998 - 12/31/2018)

PERSISTENT MISPRICING OF RISK

Page 10: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE

Page 11: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

10

10

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Aaa Aa A Baa

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

Aaa Aa A Baa

Source: Moody’s and Lord Abbett. As of 12/31/2017. Data most recent available. *Based on average default rates and senior unsecured bond recoveries measured on issuer-weighted basis. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

Average Cumulative Credit Loss Rates

By Letter Rating, 1983-2017*

THE HISTORY OF LOSS RATES

Average Annual Credit Loss Rates

By Letter Rating, 1983-2017*

Page 12: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

11

11

Source: Moody’s and Lord Abbett. As of 12/31/2017. Data most recent available. *Based on average default rates and senior unsecured bond recoveries measured on issuer-weighted basis. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

perc

ent

Aaa Aa A Baa

0

50

100

150

200

250

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

bps

Aaa OAS Aa OAS

A OAS Baa OAS

AVERAGE ANNUAL CREDIT LOSS RATES BY LETTER RATING (1983 – 2017*)

DEFAULT TERM SLOPE HAS GENERALLY BEEN STEEPER THAN OAS

Page 13: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

12

12

0

50

100

150

200

250

Aaa Aa A Baa

bps

5 Year OAS Losses 5 Years Out

0

50

100

150

200

250

Aaa Aa A Baa

bps

1 Year OAS Losses 1 Year Out

Source: Moody’s and Lord Abbett. As of 12/31/2017. Data most recent available. Yield spread data covers 2000-2017. Losses cover 1998-2017. Loss data based on following a cohort of bonds for 1 and 5 years. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

AMONG INVESTMENT-GRADE CREDITS, YIELD SPREADS MORE THAN

COMPENSATE FOR LOSSES, 1998-2017*

Page 14: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

13

13

Source: Moody’s and Bloomberg. As of 12/31/2017. Data most recent available. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

200

0

200

1

200

2

200

3

200

4

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

200

9

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

Baa Losses A Losses Aa Losses Aaa Losses

Baa OAS A OAS Aa OAS Aaa OAS

ANNUAL CREDIT LOSS RATES AND YIELD SPREADS BY LETTER RATING,

1996-2017*

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14

14

Source: Moody’s. As of 12/31/2017. Data most recent available. *Last cohort formed on 1/1/2013.WR is withdrawn rating (became unrated or was called). For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

From\To Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca-C WR Default

Aaa 87.71% 7.94% 0.58% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.67% 0.00%

Aa 0.82% 85.15% 8.51% 0.42% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 4.95% 0.02%

A 0.05% 2.46% 86.78% 5.37% 0.48% 0.11% 0.04% 0.01% 4.64% 0.05%

Baa 0.03% 0.14% 4.12% 85.72% 3.79% 0.69% 0.15% 0.02% 5.17% 0.17%

From\To Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca-C WR Default

Aaa 53.36% 23.51% 4.99% 0.64% 0.31% 0.03% 0.05% 0.00% 17.04% 0.07%

Aa 2.20% 45.70% 23.68% 4.01% 0.81% 0.26% 0.12% 0.03% 22.94% 0.26%

A 0.19% 7.33% 51.38% 14.64% 2.47% 0.80% 0.16% 0.02% 22.35% 0.67%

Baa 0.16% 1.04% 12.33% 49.33% 7.96% 2.55% 0.59% 0.09% 24.50% 1.46%

AVERAGE FIVE-YEAR LETTER RATING MIGRATION RATES (1970-2017*)

AVERAGE ONE-YEAR LETTER RATING MIGRATION RATES (1970 – 2017*)

MIGRATION RATES HAVE NOT FULLY EXPLAINED THE PREMIUM

Page 16: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

15

15

Source: Moody’s and Lord Abbett. As of 12/31/2017. Data most recent available. Yield spread data covers 2000-2017. Losses cover 1998-2017. Loss data based on following a cohort of bonds for 1 and 5 years. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

Taxes

Liquidity premium

Systematic risk premium

139

4

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1 Year OAS Losses 1 Year Out

bps

1 YEAR ‘A’ RATED CREDIT OAS VERSUS LOSSES

LARGE SPREAD IN CORPORATE YIELDS IS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF

FACTORS

Page 17: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

THE DUAL CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE

Page 18: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

17

17

4

131

47

0

50

100

150

200

250

bps

A

Realized Excess Return

Expected Excess Return

Losses

14

196

109

0

50

100

150

200

250

bps

BBB

Realized Excess Return

Expected Excess Return

Losses

Source: Moody’s, Barclays, and Lord Abbett. Data is from 1996 to 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

EX ANTE VS EX POST – DUAL CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLES

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18

18

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. As of 06/30/2018. Data most recent available. Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

0.54%

0.74%

1.06%

1.23%

1.61%

0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00%

A-rated, sell when downgraded to BBB

A-rated, sell when downgraded to HY

A-rated, buy and hold

BBB-rated, sell when downgraded to HY

BBB-rated, buy and hold

Average annualized excess return, 10-year bonds

BUY-AND-HOLD HAS OUTPERFORMED ACROSS RATINGS

EX ANTE VS EX POST – DUAL CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLES

Page 20: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

19

19

Source: S&P Global Ratings. Data most recent available. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

SECURITIZED PRODUCTS PROVIDE DIVERSIFICATION POTENTIAL

U.S. CMBS ONE-YEAR DEFAULT RATES

(1986-2016)

U.S. ABS ONE-YEAR DEFAULT RATES

(1986-2016)

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

%

AAA AA A BBB

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

%

AAA AA A BBB

Page 21: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

20

Source: eVestment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

EX ANTE VS EX POST – DUAL CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLES

PERCENTAGE OF ACTIVE MANAGERS THAT OUTPERFORMED THEIR MEDIAN PASSIVE

PEERS (AS OF 09/30/2018)

93%

80%

88%

90%

86%

94%

85%

94%

82%

95%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

eVestment US Interm Duration Fixed Income eVestment US Short Duration Fixed Income

1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 Yrs 7 Yrs 10 Yrs

Page 22: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

21

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, CRSP. As of 03/31/2018. Data most recent available. Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

PERFORMANCE OVER TWO NON-OVERLAPPING THREE-YEAR PERIODS

1st Quartile 4th Quartile

1st Quartile 41.86% 9.30%

4th Quartile 9.30% 34.88%

INVESTMENT-GRADE INTERMEDIATE FUNDS

1st Quartile 4th Quartile

1st Quartile 38.89% 5.56%

4th Quartile 11.11% 50.00%

INVESTMENT-GRADE SHORT FUNDS

Page 23: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

22

22

72%

83%

95%

91%

96%

100%

86%

97%

100%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

Rolling 6 months Rolling 12 months Rolling 24 months

Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index

ICE BofAML U.S. Corps 1-3 Year Index

Short Duration Multisector Blend*

RETURN OF PRINCIPAL: HISTORICAL LIKELIHOOD FOR SHORT-TERM

CORPORATE BONDS AND BLENDED SHORT CREDIT

Source: Bloomberg and Lord Abbett. *Blended Allocation includes 30% ICE BofAMLUS Corps 1-3 Year Index, 30% BbgBarcCMBS 1 -3.5Year Index, 15% ICE BofAMLABS Fixed Rate 0-3 Year Index, 15% BbgBarcHY 1-3 Index, 10% BBgBarcUS Govt/Credit 1-3 Year Index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment. **Gross of fees.

Annualized Return Standard Deviation

3.64% 3.23%

2.92% 2.71%

3.42% 2.73%

PERCENTAGE OF TIME PERIODS WITH POSITIVE RETURNS (ROLLING RETURNS: 01/01/2008 – 12/31/2018)

Page 24: THE CREDIT SPREAD PUZZLE AND THE SHORT CREDIT ANOMALY · Spread Credit and EMG BARCLAYS AGGREGATE: SOURCES OF VARIATION IN RETURNS (AS OF 12/31/2018) Source: Barclays POINT, Lord

23

23

Source: Bloomberg and Lord Abbett. *Blended Allocation includes 30% ICE BofAMLUS Corps 1-3 Year Index, 30% BbgBarcCMBS 1 -3.5Year Index, 15% ICE BofAMLABS Fixed Rate 0-3 Year Index, 15% BbgBarcHY 1-3 Index, 10% BBgBarcUS Govt/Credit 1-3 Year Index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator or guarantee of future results. For illustrative purposes only and does not represent any specific portfolio managed by Lord Abbett or any particular investment.

MULTISECTOR SHORT DURATION COMPLEMENTS A CORE BOND

ALLOCATION

RISK/RETURN (12/31/2008 – 12/31/2018)

Barclays Aggregate Bond Index

Short Duration Multisector Blend*

50/50 Blend

70/30 Blend

30/70 Blend

3.0%

3.2%

3.3%

3.5%

3.6%

3.8%

3.9%

4.1%

4.2%

4.4%

4.5%

1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Retu

rn

Risk

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BIOGRAPHIES

Joseph M. Graham, CFA

Investment Strategist

Joseph Graham leads the efforts of Lord Abbett’s Investment Strategists. In addition, Mr. Graham is responsible for providing

the portfolio management teams with investment insight and relevant market information for the firm’s fixed income strategies

and Calibrated equity strategies. In this role, he communicates with institutional clients and prospects regarding current portfolio

positioning and the firm’s market outlook. Mr. Graham also collaborates with the consultant relations, product development, and

relationship management teams as appropriate.

Mr. Graham joined Lord Abbett in 2015. Prior to joining the firm, he was a Founder and CIO at HudsonView Capital

Management and Route 3 Capital; Vice President and Analyst at Millennium Partners; Analyst and Associate Portfolio Manager

at LibertyView Capital Management; and Investment Banker at Morgan Keegan. He has been in the financial services industry

since 1999.

Mr. Graham earned a BS in finance and philosophy from Washington University and an MBA from the Wharton School of

Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He is also a holder of the CFA® (Chartered Financial Analyst) designation.

Samantha Scher

Director, Institutional Investor Services

Samantha Scher is responsible for working with institutional investors across a range of segments, including corporate, public,

insurance, health care, endowments and foundations. In this role, she provides the professional investor with market

perspectives, new investment ideas, in-depth portfolio reviews, and access to the full breadth of Lord Abbett’s resources.

Ms. Scher began her career at Lord Abbett in 2013 as an Institutional Sales Director. Prior to joining Lord Abbett, she served as

a Director in the Global Client Group at BlackRock, where she worked with U.S. tax-exempt institutional investors across

asset classes and investment approaches. She has been in the financial services industry since 2002.

Ms. Scher earned a BA summa cum laude in economics and biological basis of behavior from the University of Pennsylvania.

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This presentation may contain assumptions that are “forward-looking statements,” which are based on certain assumptions of future events. Actual events are difficult to predict and may differ from those assumed. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will materialize or that actual returns or results will not be materially different from those described here. A Few Words about Risk Bonds are affected by interest rate movements. Bond prices and, likewise, a bond fund’s share price, generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. As the prices of bonds in a fund adjust to a rise in interest rates, a fund’s share price may decline. In addition, bonds are subject to call, credit, liquidity, interest rate, and general market risks. Investors should be aware of the special risks involved with investments in high-yield bonds. High-yield bonds invest in lower-rated, higher-yielding instruments, which are subject to increased risk of default and can potentially result in loss of principal. Higher yielding, lower-rated corporate bonds entail a greater degree of credit risk than investment-grade securities. Adverse conditions may affect the issuer’s ability to pay interest and principal on the securities. Lower-rated bonds may carry greater risks than higher-rated bonds. Mortgage-backed securities are susceptible to prepayment. Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment. The information provided is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information about Lord Abbett's products and services and to otherwise provide general investment education. None of the information provided should be regarded as a suggestion to engage in or refrain from any investment-related course of action as neither Lord Abbett nor its affiliates are undertaking to provide impartial investment advice, act as an impartial adviser, or give advice in a fiduciary capacity. If you are an individual retirement investor, contact your financial advisor or other fiduciary about whether any given investment idea, strategy, product or service may be appropriate for your circumstances. The views and opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and subject to change based on subsequent developments and may not reflect the views of the firm as a whole. This material is not intended to be legal or tax advice and is not to be relied upon as a forecast, or research or investment advice regarding a particular investment or the markets in general, nor is it intended to predict or depict performance of any investment. It should not be assumed that investments in the securities and/or sectors described were or will be profitable. This document is prepared based on information Lord Abbett deems reliable; however, Lord Abbett does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information. Unless expressly stated, this document has not otherwise been registered with, or approved by any regulatory authority in any jurisdiction. Do not duplicate or reproduce. The information presented in these materials is believed to be materially correct as at the date hereof (or such earlier date as referenced herein) and is subject to change without notice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any of this information. Nothing set out in these materials is or shall be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the past or future. The credit quality of the securities in a portfolio is assigned by a nationally recognized statistical rating organization (NRSRO), such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch, as an indication of an issuer’s creditworthiness. Ratings range from ‘AAA’ (highest) to ‘D’ (lowest). Bonds rated ‘BBB’ or above are considered investment grade. Credit ratings ‘BB’ and below are lower-rated securities (junk bonds). High-yielding, non-investment-grade bonds (junk bonds) involve higher risks than investment grade bonds. Adverse conditions may affect the issuer’s ability to pay interest and principal on these securities. ICE BofAML Index Information: Source ICE Data Indices, LLC (“ICE”), used with permission. ICE PERMITS USE OF THE ICE BofAML INDICES AND RELATED DATA ON AN "AS IS" BASIS, MAKES NO WARRANTIES REGARDING SAME, DOES NOT GUARANTEE THE SUITABILITY, QUALITY, ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, AND/OR COMPLETENESS OF THE ICE BofAML INDICES OR ANY DATA INCLUDED IN, RELATED TO, OR DERIVED THEREFROM, ASSUMES NO LIABILITY IN CONNECTION WITH THE USE OF THE FOREGOING, AND DOES NOT SPONSOR, ENDORSE, OR RECOMMEND LORD ABBETT, OR ANY OF ITS PRODUCTS OR SERVICES.

IMPORTANT PERFORMANCE AND OTHER INFORMATION