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2 | September 2019

Alternative meat - the future of food or just a fad?

US Fed rate cut - wise economic decision or untimely mistake?

Can the world be less reliant on oil?

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#energyrevolution #creditsupply

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*For list of authors, see page 44-45 Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its a�iliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could a�ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 46.

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Americas Top Picks Our 30 Americas Top Picks average $58.5bn market cap with over 31% upside potential to their 12-month price targets. Our average Top Pick trades at 17.8x forward earnings and o­ers over 18% expected ROE and 2.2% dividend yield.

Equity Research 9 September 2019

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This is a Special Report that is not a debt research report under US FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays makes its debt research reports available to eligible institutional investors only. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page .

EquityGilt Study

2019

This is an extract from the Equity Gilt Study 2019

11 April 2019

Sreekala Kochugovindan+44 (0) 20 7773 2234sreekala.kochugovindan@barclays.comBarclays, UK

06Impact Series

Oil in 3D: the demand outlook to 2050Barclays investigates the world’s continued reliance on oil in the next few decades, and considers consumption in three potential scenarios

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This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its own account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations o�ered in this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 56.

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Global Outlook

Monetary tide keeps markets afloat The bond rally does not signal a dire economic outlook; it is partly due to investors recalibrating their neutral rate estimate lower. The global economy should temporarily slow in the coming months, but the business cycle is set to endure. We expect central bank easing to support markets and recommend global equities over bonds.

Ajay Rajadhyaksha +1 212 412 7669 ajay.rajadhyaksha@barclays.com BCI, US

Research 27 June 2019

Top PicksBarclays Equity Research’s “Top Picks” represent the single best alpha-generating investment idea within each industry, taken from among the Overweight-ratedstocks within that industry.

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Barclays analyses whether decreased competition is threatening the US economy or whether current competitive pressures are

04Impact Series

The case for sustainable bond investing strengthens In an expanded research study, Barclays

*For list of authors, see page 32-33 Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its a�iliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could a�ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 34.

Equity Research

European Top Picks Our Strategists keep a defensive bias; trade war and Brexit resolutions are required for markets to turn risk-on; Top Picks highlight our analysts’ undervalued names, eg Lloyds, Total, GEA. UK names reflect perceived discounts from Brexit uncertainty.

Equity Research 9 September 2019

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*For list of authors, see page 2. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its a�iliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could a�ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 86.

SIGNATURE #foodrevolution #transatlantic

Global Food

I Can’t Believe It’s Not Meat What has been achieved so far in terms of “meatless” ground beef has yielded positive initial consumer reaction. While still an underdeveloped category, the alternative meat space in our view presents plenty of opportunities; new and incumbent players could grab ~10% of the $1.4tn meat market in 10 years.

Americas Agribusiness*

U.S. Food*

U.S. Restaurants*

European Consumer Staples*

Equity Research 22 May 2019

Equity ResearchEvent analysis and deep dives into stock ideas and sector themes spanning more than 1,500 companies under coverage across the Americas and Europe.

Our Product Mix

*For list of additional authors, see page 2 This is a Special Report that is not a debt research report under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays makes its debt research reports available to eligible institutional investors only. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its a­iliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could a­ect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page .

SIGNATURE #climatechange #transatlantic

Sustainable & Thematic Investing

Plastic Waste: Don’t lose your bottle With only 16% of global plastics recycled, society is under pressure to address plastic waste. We believe PET bottles are here to stay, though significant investment is required in its waste management. We expect consumer deposit schemes and emerging recycling technology to support the transition to a circular economy for PET.

Sustainable & Thematic Investing* Katherine Ogundiya Hiral Patel +44 (0)20 3134 1391 +44 (0)20 3134 1618 katherine.a.ogundiya@barclays.com hiral.patel@barclays.com Barclays, UK Barclays, UK

Special Report I Research 19 June 2019

Focused on long-term disruptive trends

Sustainable & Thematic

Equity Research 7 September 2018

CORE

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 25.

UK Mid & Small Cap Construction

UK Construction and Building Products | H1 Models refresh With 9 of our 11 companies under coverage having reported H1 results over the past month we take the opportunity to refresh our published models and estimates, with the majority of minor changes driven by mix effects on the back of current trading, currency movement or recent bolt-on acquisitions. The impacts by company are outlined below and overleaf.

Balfour Beatty (EW, 310p): We make only minor underlying changes having initiated in June, with our new numbers including the increased level of provisioning linked to the AWPR contract which reduces reported UK Construction profit from operations, and at the group level drives a 2% downgrade to £168m. We also align interest costs with new guidance following the M25 disposals and timing of note redemptions. This drives an EPS upgrade of 8% in FY18E. There is no resulting change to Target Price given the non-underlying nature, additional cash outflows attached to the AWPR contract losses, and slight dilution to Director’s Valuation of the Infrastructure portfolio post disposals.

Breedon (OW, 95p): We make a number of minor changes post H1 results following a stronger performance than anticipated from the acquired Lagan business in Ireland offsetting weaker underlying trading in UK volumes and the challenges presented by raw material driven cost inflation. Net result drives a 2% reduction in FY18E EPS with our new underlying EBIT estimate of £101.3m in line with company guidance of c£102m. Our target moves to 95p from 98p in line with the change to estimates.

Grafton (OW, 870p): For Grafton we make an adjustment to mix post H1, lifting Group organic growth by 90bps (driven by Manufacturing and Irish retail) whilst leaving margins broadly flat on a net basis (improved manufacturing operating leverage offset by slower Belgium profit recovery and some added caution on UK margins post cost inflation), resulting in a 1.4% net increase in EBIT expectations. We also reflect a higher level of property profits for the FY and an expected pay-down in debt which supports a 4.0% increase in EPS to 60.7p for FY18E and a corresponding increase in target to 870p, from 850p.

Howden Joinery (EW, 480p): In the UK we make a slight upgrade to expected revenues following the strong volumes reported in H1 but move gross margins down by 100bps to reflect the current price/cost dynamic. The net result drives a c2% reduction to our EPS estimates in FY18/19.

(Continued on page 3…)

INDUSTRY UPDATE

UK Mid & Small Cap Construction NEUTRAL Unchanged

For a full list of our ratings, price target and earnings changes in this report, please see table on page 2.

UK Mid & Small Cap Construction Matthew Walker +44 (0)20 7773 2729 matthew.r.walker@barclays.com Barclays, UK

Market-leading coveragespanning 214 UK stocks

UK Mid &Small Cap

A fresh perspective ontoday’s global sectors

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Equity Strategy

Equity Research 19 October 2018

FOCUS

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 15.

US Equity Strategy

Trading the US-China Trade War We construct a basket of stocks that are most exposed to the US-China trade war, which we believe will continue to escalate. Interestingly, market concerns about the trade war have escalated recently after remaining dormant for much of the year. We construct the basket using a robust process which starts with company-level estimates of the impact of tariffs using our framework based on granular industry level import/export data and then further refine those using feedback from Barclays’ equity analysts for each company.

Concerns about the trade war have escalated recently. While the trade war between U.S. and China has raged on for a while, equities had hitherto digested the escalation in trade tensions with remarkable ease primarily because the potential impact on earnings was not large relative to the robust 2018 earnings. This appears to have started changing over the last few weeks because of 1) increased rhetoric from the Trump administration, which indicates a deal is unlikely in the near future, and 2) increasing focus by investors on the expected slowdown in 2019 earnings as tariffs could take out a bigger bite of earnings growth.

Our base case is that the US-China trade war will continue to escalate. Our economists’ base case now assumes a 20% tariff on all US imports from China and that China responds although perhaps not fully in kind. We further believe that irrespective of the outcome of the mid-term elections, trade policy is likely to turn restrictive. Our base case is that Democrats will win the House of Representatives (“Blue Wave”), which will likely increase the U.S. administration’s focus on trade policy since it is relatively immune to legislative gridlock.

Although the impact of tariffs on the full S&P 500 index is limited, there is substantial dispersion across stocks and thus a negative view requires a nuanced implementation. Assuming a full trade war with 25% tariffs on all US-China trade, we estimate an impact of ~ -3% on 2019 S&P 500. However, there is substantial dispersion of the potential tariff impact across stocks and so we construct a basket of 30 stocks which are likely to be most impacted, in our view. We use a robust process which starts with company-level estimates of the impact of tariffs using our framework based on granular industry level import/export data and then further refine those using insights from Barclays’ equity analysts. Most of the stocks in our basket are concentrated in the Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Industrials sectors.

Our “trade war basket” has unperformed recently and we expect the underperformance to continue. We find that these stocks underperformed the broader market after the first salvo of the trade war was fired in February but then remained range-bound for much of the year even as trade tensions escalated. However, these names have materially underperformed over the past few days indicating that investors are now more aggressively pricing in a trade war risk.

MACRO STRATEGY

U.S. Equity Strategy Maneesh S. Deshpande +1 212 526 2953 maneesh.deshpande@barclays.com BCI, US Japinder Chawla +1 212 526 2771 japinder.chawla@barclays.com BCI, US

U.S. Equity Derivatives Strategy Arnab Sen +1 212 526 5429 arnab.sen@barclays.com BCI, US

Single stock research on 1,540 companies

Single Stock

Equity Research 11 February 2019

FOCUS

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 23.

Royal Dutch Shell

Top Pick in European Energy To deliver on its quest to be a world-class investment case on a multi-year basis, Royal Dutch Shell needs to deliver growth in free cash flow and, in our view, use this to improve cash returns to shareholders, almost regardless of the oil price. On our estimates the combination of FCF in both Integrated Gas and the Downstream alone could reach $25bn per year by 2025. This far exceeds the c$15bn annual dividend requirement and increases the likelihood that a $10bn per year share repurchase scheme can continue well into the next decade, going a long way to offsetting the dilution associated with the BG deal and scrip programme. There continues to be debate in the market about the group’s level of spending, but for this period in the company’s life-cycle we see it as appropriate, if not a little too high. Shell’s share price, for us, simply does not reflect the underlying free cashflow potential of the business. At c6% dividend yield and a further 3%+ of market cap set to be returned through share repurchase each year, we see a clear value opportunity. No portfolio is perfect, and we acknowledge that inorganic activity is likely to feature going forward, but the shares are also far from being priced on a perfect delivery basis. The company is hosting a Capital Markets Day on 04 June and we see this as a key catalyst. Royal Dutch Shell becomes our Top Pick with an unchanged 3250p/sh price target, replacing BP (which we continue to rate as Overweight).

Twin drivers of cash returns: The performance on the downstream and LNG businesses are key on our analysis to the sustainability of any share repurchase scheme into the next decade. The Integrated Gas business for Shell is set to generate $8-10bn of FCF by 2020 and

on our estimates this could rise to $15bn by 2025 reflecting growing volumes into a tightening market. In the downstream the group’s formal ambition is to generate $9-12bn in FCF by 2025 with a large part of that driven by a c70% increase in retail earnings. The

potential combined FCF of these two businesses alone show just how compelling a phase that Shell is going through at the moment – one that we see lasting for a multi-year basis.

$75bn share repurchase to 2025 is possible: Given the FCF generation potential of the business. we envision that the current share repurchase programme could be continued in

the early part of next decade, possibly reaching $60-75bn in the medium term – essentially keeping the current rate of share repurchase for an additional five years. This would have the effect of removing the dilution both from the BG equity raise and the scrip issuance and

reducing the long run dividend bill on an absolute basis.

Financial and Valuation Metrics USD

FY Dec 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F

EPS, $ 2.54 2.68 3.15 4.09 4.46

Previous EPS, $ 2.54 2.68 3.15 4.09 4.46

P/E, x 13.0 11.7 10.4 8.0 7.3

Source: Company data, Barclays Research

INDUSTRY UPDATE

European Integrated Oil & Refining POSITIVE Unchanged

For a full list of our ratings, price target and earnings changes in this report, please see table on page 2.

European Integrated Oil & Refining Lydia Rainforth, CFA +44 (0)20 3134 6669 lydia.rainforth@barclays.com Barclays, UK Joshua Stone +44 (0)20 3134 6694 joshua.stone@barclays.com Barclays, UK Danni Li +44 (0)20 3134 5636 danni.li@barclays.com Barclays, UK Ramachandra Kamath +91 (0)22 61752308 ramchandra.kamath@barclays.com Barclays, UK

8 | September 2019

Equity Sectors Under Coverage

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Senior analysts* in Europe

Companies Under Coverage (as of 16 September 2019)

cover stocks(100.0%)

Senior analysts* in the Americas 1,540US: 910 (59.1%) Canada:

43 (2.8%)Continental Europe:323 (21.0%)

UK:214 (13.9%)

*senior analysts include all analysts with coverage responsibility

500+ pan European stocks under coverage with a core strength in the UK

LatAm: 50 (3.2%)

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Barclays Equity Research’s “Top Picks” represent the single best alpha-generating investment idea within each industry, taken from among the Overweight-rated stocks within that industry.

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Barclays may at any time acquire, hold or dispose of long or short positions (including hedging and trading positions) and trade or otherwise effect transactions for their own account or the account of their customers in the products referred to herein which may impact the performance of a product.

FOR INFORMATION ONLY

This information has been prepared by the Research Department within the Investment Bank of Barclays. The information, analytic tools, and/or models referenced herein (and any reports or results derived from their use) are intended for informational purposes only. Barclays has no obligation to update this information and may cease provision of this information at any time and without notice.

NO OFFER

Barclays is not offering to sell or seeking offers to buy any product or enter into any transaction. Any offer or entry into any transaction requires Barclays’ subsequent formal agreement which will be subject to internal approvals and execution of binding transaction documents.

NO LIABILITY

Neither Barclays nor any of its directors, officers, employees, representatives or agents, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential losses (in contract, tort or otherwise) arising from the use of this communication or its contents or reliance on the information contained herein, except to the extent this would be prohibited by law or regulation.

NO ADVICE

Barclays is not acting as a fiduciary. Barclays does not provide, and has not provided, any investment advice or personal recommendation to you in relation to any transaction and/or any related securities described herein and is not responsible for providing or arranging for the provision of any general financial, strategic or specialist advice, including legal, regulatory, accounting, model auditing or taxation advice or services or any other services in relation to the transaction and/or any related securities described herein. Accordingly Barclays is under no obligation to, and shall not, determine the suitability for you of the transaction described herein. You must determine, on your own behalf or through independent professional advice, the merits, terms, conditions and risks of any transaction described herein.

Disclaimer

NOT A BENCHMARK

The information provided does not constitute a financial benchmark and should not be used as a submission or contribution of input data for the purposes of determining a financial benchmark.

INFORMATION PROVIDED MAY NOT BE ACCURATE OR COMPLETE AND MAY BE SOURCED FROM THIRD PARTIES

All information is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. Because of the possibility of human and mechanical errors as well as other factors, Barclays is not responsible for any errors or omissions in the information contained herein. Barclays is not responsible for information stated to be obtained or derived from third party sources or statistical services. Barclays makes no representation and disclaims all express, implied, and statutory warranties including warranties of accuracy, completeness, reliability, fitness for a particular purpose or merchantability of the information contained herein.

PAST & SIMULATED PAST PERFORMANCE

Any past or simulated past performance including back-testing, modelling or scenario analysis contained herein is no indication as to future performance. No representation is made as to the accuracy of the assumptions made within, or completeness of, any modelling, scenario analysis or back-testing.

OPINIONS SUBJECT TO CHANGE

All opinions and estimates are given as of the date hereof and are subject to change. The value of any investment may also fluctuate as a result of market changes. Barclays is not obliged to inform the recipients of this communication of any change to such opinions or estimates.ling, scenario analysis or back-testing.

NOT FOR RETAIL

This document is being directed at persons who are professional investors and is not intended for retail customer use.Not For Further Distribution or Distribution To Retail Investors.For Discussion Purposes Only.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

For important regional disclosures you must read, visit the link relevant to your region. Please contact your Barclays representative if you are unable to access.EMEAhttps://www.home.barclays/disclosures/important-emea-disclosures.html.APAChttps://www.home.barclays/disclosures/important-apac-disclosures.html.U.S.https://www.home.barclays/disclosures/important-us-disclosures.html.

CONFIDENTIAL

This communication is confidential and is for the benefit and internal use of the recipient for the purpose of considering the securities/transaction described herein, and no part of it may be reproduced, distributed or transmitted without the prior written permission of Barclays.

ABOUT BARCLAYS

Barclays Bank PLC is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England No. 1026167 with its registered office at 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP.

COPYRIGHT

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