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Transcript of The Coming Insurrection and how it may Transform Expected ...· The Coming Insurrection and how it

The Coming Insurrection and how it may Transform Expected Futures.

workshop, 16:15 16:55

AmsterdamConnected

Jaap van Till, TheConnectivist Tildro Research, The Netherlands

T: @ jvantill

An Interes*ng Day in Amsterdam of the Dutch Future Society ( #DFS2016 )

1 (CC) Jaap van *ll, 2016

Summary and Introduction :

Times are a-changing. That means that we also have to change our views on the future to what might lead us in a constructive way through the major structural transitions. We can see that many national elections and referenda are signals of protest against the establishment powers. These have failed to see that many seemingly solid assumptions and policies are either false or do not work anymore: abundant raw materials, scarcity of information, hierarchies, upward movement in lower/ middle classes, neoliberal market mantras. The resulting ANGER and Insurrections have been averted by the elites by blaming "others". The resulting wave of hatred and even open racism is similar to the popular fascist movements in the 1930's after the 30 Crash. We are now in a similar position: after the Crash of 2008. The only alternative to endless hate and destruction is to start a wave of constructive interconnection and online ICT collaboration I call Synthecracy which can create value, wealth and jobs for the young. 2

3 http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us/us-election/trump-is-a-fascist-and-i-m-embarrassed-by-the-government-s-response-1.2873639

What things are over their validity date?

Increasing inequality and freezing of mobility Communism AND Kapitalism (NeoLib) do not work anymore as a total solution / out of proportions. Market disfunctions. Nation States ?? Hierarchies disfunction, slow and ill-informed. Education, knowledge can not prepare for change and new insights/

patterns. Skills, Crafts Simplicity & linear & static models Everything connected

Complexity (ecologies)

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DEPLOYMENT INSTALLATION

We are here, ICT = General Purpose Technology

Creative destruction Learning the new unlearning the old A great market experiment Led by financial capital Ending in a stock market crash

INSTALLATION

Creative construction

Led by production capital

Applying the paradigm to innovate

across all sectors and to spread

the social benefits more widely

Until maturity and exhaustion

DEPLOYMENT

??? 2O - 30 years 2O - 30 years

Major technology

bubble

big-bang Next big-bang Time

Deg

ree

of d

iffus

ion

of

the

new

tech

nolo

gica

l pot

entia

l

The first half sets up the infrastructure and lets the markets pick the winners the second half reaps the full economic and social potential

EACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION PROPAGATES IN TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS

Turning Point

Unce

rtaint

y, ins

titutio

nal re

comp

ositio

n an

d ro

le sh

ift

Prof. Carlota Perez University College London

Present 2008 Crisis/ Recession is a Transi*on. Educa*on? Jobs? Tools Wealth crea*on??

Herstel? Wereld zit nog steeds in een Crisis, en midden in een Transitie

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Vorige = Industriele Know How: gedreven door Olie, Chemie en Electro-Mechanica als General Purpose Technology. Grote bedrijven waren de hoofd spelers. Huidige G.P.T. = ICT: Computer HW, SW enVerbindingen ertussen. Zit overal in. The Age of Infrastructure (Rifkin)

(NL Gouden Eeuw 1600-1700)

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THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM ( Perez [12] A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 1)

CONVENTIONAL COMMON SENSE NEW EFFICIENCY PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES

COMMAND AND CONTROL

Centralized command Vertical control Cascade of supervisory levels "Management knows best"

Central goal-setting and coordination Local autonomy/Horizontal self-control Self-assessing/self-improving units Participatory decision-making

STRUCTURE AND GROWTH

Stable pyramid, growing in height and complexity as it expands

Flat, flexible network of very agile units Remains flat as it expands

PARTS AND LINKS

Clear vertical links Separate, specialized functional departments

Interactive, cooperative links between functions, along each product line

STYLE OF OPERATION

Optimized smooth running organizations Standard routines and procedures "There is one best way" Definition of individual tasks Single function specialization Single top-down line of command Single bottom-up information flow

Continuous learning and improvement Flexible system/Adaptable procedures "A better way can always be found" Definition of group tasks Multi-skilled personnel/Ad hoc teams Widespread delegation of decision making Multiple horizontal and vertical flows

PERSONNEL AND TRAINING

Labor as variable cost Market provides trained personnel People to fit the fixed posts Discipline as main quality

Labor as human capital Much in-house training and retraining Variable posts/Adaptable people Initiative/collaboration/motivation

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THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM (Perez [12]) A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 2) EQUIPMENT AND INVESTMENT

Dedicated equipment One optimum plant size for each product Each plant anticipates demand growth Strive for economies of scale for mass production

Adaptable/programmable/flexible equipment Many efficient sizes/Optimum relative Organic growth closely following demand Choice or combination of economies of scale, scope or specialization

PRODUCTION PROGRAMMING

Keep production rhythm; Use inventory to accommodate variation in demand. Produce for stock; shed labor in slac

Adapt rhythm to variation in demand Minimize response time ("Just-in-time") Use slack for maintenance and training

PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT

A specific measure for each department (purchasing, production, marketing, etc.) ercent tolerance on quality and rejects

Total productivity measured along the whole chain for each product line Strive for zero defects and zero rejects

SUPPLIERS, CLIENTS AND COMPETITORS

Separation from the outside world: Foster price competition among suppliers Make standard products for mass customers Arms length oligopoly with competitors The firm as a closed system

Strong interaction with outside world: Collaborative links with suppliers, with customers and, in some cases, with competitors (Basic R&D for instance) The firm as an open system

Prof. Carlota Perez shows us the way out of the crises ! General Purpose Technolgy (GPT): Electro / mechanical/ chemical ICT / Network Technology

h]ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVXy-ZqqZ-g

The Two Phases of Lightning

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Zie: https://theconnectivist.wordpress.com/2014/12/20/new-power-on-the-rise-user-side-synthecracy/

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13 Pirate Party Iceland

Value of ICT Networks and Networking? The four Network Effects. I. Sarnoffs Law: Media, Broadcasting networks. Value ~ N (number of viewers/ Eyeballs) Additive. Value for advertisers. Supplyside. Exmpl: FIFA: football commercials [CableCos] II. Metcalfes Law: Communication networks. Value ~ N ^2 ( number of participants that can communicate with eachother). Quadratic. Value for the networkoperator. [Telcos] III Reeds Law: Number of Tribes you can be member of or not. Value ~ 2 ^ N Exponential through Internet. Value for (adspiring) people to be one of the members. IV Van Tills Law: Value for the participants for their unique contribution in network collaborative COOPERATION. Synergy by networked combinations, diversity. Value ~ N ! ( N factorial = N * N-1 * N-2 * N-3 * ..*1 ) New Power ! Multiplicative Value for the team empowered participants with unique skills. P2P Coops SHARING = VALUE MULTIPLICATION THROUGH NETWORKING Demandside Link : https://theconnectivist.wordpress.com/2015/03/25/np9-engines-for-the-new-power-the-four-network-effects/

(Only valid in Dutch)

16 Recently noticed growth pattern of prosperity Corridoria String of Cities , from mid-UK to Istanbul

Hanze Silk Route

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Corridoria String of Ci*es. They are listed on [2] China is construc*ng new silkroute rail[3]

Low Latency Op*c Fiber Cables Rail

From Galway Dublin to Shanghai

Core message:

( Complete opposite of what the national populists propose )

Connect diverse knowledge, specialties, people

and

Cooperate & Collaborate in Commons, Coops Trans-Tribal

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