THE CLOUD, THE EXAFLOOD, AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS: REALIZING THE
21
1 THE CLOUD, THE EXAFLOOD, AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS: REALIZING THE FULL POTENTIAL REALIZING THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE NEXT GENERATION INTERNET Michael R. Nelson Visiting Professor Internet Studies •1 Visiting Professor , Internet Studies Communication, Culture and Technology Program Georgetown University [email protected] My Background B.S., geology , Caltech Ph.D., geophysics, MIT 1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow 4 years as Senator Gore's science advisor 4 years as IT policy wonk at White House 1998 1999 T h l it t FCC ASIST 30 Mar 2009 1998-1999 -- T echnologist at FCC 9+ years as IBM’s Director, Internet Tech. Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008
Transcript of THE CLOUD, THE EXAFLOOD, AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS: REALIZING THE
1
THE CLOUD, THE EXAFLOOD, AND THE INTERNET OF THINGS: REALIZING THE FULL POTENTIAL REALIZING THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE NEXT GENERATION INTERNET
Michael R. NelsonVisiting Professor Internet Studies
•1
Visiting Professor, Internet StudiesCommunication, Culture and Technology ProgramGeorgetown [email protected]
My Background
B.S., geology, Caltechg gyPh.D., geophysics, MIT1988 -- Congressional Science Fellow4 years as Senator Gore's science advisor4 years as IT policy wonk at White House1998 1999 T h l i t t FCC
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
1998-1999 -- Technologist at FCC9+ years as IBM’s Director, Internet Tech. Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008
2
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #1
ALWAYS have a good bumper sticker
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #3
To make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
(preferably true)
3
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #5
State your conclusions upfront
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
Conclusions
We are entering the third phase of the InternetAs profound as the World Wide WebThe next 2-3 years will define the Next Generation Internet
Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as much—or more—than law and regulationThe Internet revolution is less than 15% complete
Number of users
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
Total bandwidthTotal amount of contentNumber of devicesNumber of applications
4
50 Things I learned in Washington
LESSON #8
Always look beyond the headlines
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
HEADLINE #1 – Cloud Computing
THE HEADLINES Google building huge data centers and
offering Google AppsWeb 2.0 buzzFlickr, YouTube, MySpace
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
ySalesForce.com
5
HEADLINE #1 – Cloud Computing
THE HEADLINE Google building huge data centers and offering
Google AppsWeb 2.0 buzzFlickr, YouTube, MySpaceSalesForce.com
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
THE REAL NEWSWe’re entering the 3rd phase of computing
6
From Eric Schmidt, the CEO of Google:
The Vision
, g“We’re moving into the era of ‘cloud’ computing,
with information and applications hosted in the diffuse atmosphere of cyberspace rather than on specific processors and silicon racks. The network will truly be the computer.”(“D ’t B t A i t th I t t ” E i t
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
(“Don’t Bet Against the Internet,” Economist, 2007)
Phase One – Stand Alone Computer
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
App. Data
7
Phase Two – The Web
Web sites
Browser
DataData
Data
Data
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
DataApp.PC
Phase Three – The Cloud
Data
DataData Data
DataApp.
App. App.
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
8
“The Big Switch” by Nicholas Carr
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
Many Flavors of Distributed Computing
1 MPeer-to-peer
The Holy GridE thi i t t d
Number of nodes
Peer to peer(PC-based)
Napster KaZaaSETI@home
Everything integratedwith everything
Power per node1 100
10
Grid Computing(Server-based)
National Grids TeraGrid
9
Gartner Says Cloud Computing Will Be
This is a VERY big deal
y p gAs Influential As E-business
Special Report Examines the Realities and Risks of Cloud Computing (June 26, 2008)
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
Akamai – Visualizing the Internet
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
http://www.akamai.com/html/technology/visualizing_akamai.html
10
PC-based Grids
SETI @HomeBerkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing
>340,000 volunteers>585,838 computers24-hour average: 1,190.46 TeraFLOPS
Fight AIDS @ Home Dozens of other projects
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
http://www.distributedcomputing.info/projects.html
TREND #2 – Internet of Things
Why it matters:y100 billion devices, not just 1.4 billion PCs
Impacts?Increased demand for ubiquitous wireless
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
qNew uses for the Cloud
11
The Cloud + The Internet of Things
Data
DataData Data
DataApp.
App. App.
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
HEADLINE #3 – Internet Video
THE HEADLINE Warner Brothers, Fox offer TV shows
(including “Desperate Housewives” on the Internet
Apple puts movies online
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
THE OTHER NEWSAmateur and illegal video everywhere!
12
VIDEO EVERYWHERE
TV shows, YouTube clips, animations, and other video applications already account for more than 60 percent of Internet traffic (CacheLogic)80% of all traffic in some countries is video98% of all traffic by 2009 (Hui Zhang, CMU)Amateur video
100 million downloads/day on YouTube
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
100 million downloads/day on YouTubeStar Trek fan videosGaming videosWebcams everywhere
Estimating the Exaflood(Swanson and Gilder, 2008)
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
13
What’s in the Exaflood?
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
HEADLINE #4 - Collaboration
THE HEADLINE
High-end video-conferencing (WebEx)Cisco Telepresence
THE REAL NEWSThe Gaming Revolution + Virtual Worlds
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
The Gaming Revolution Virtual WorldsProducing GDP equivalent to Belgium'sMay 1 2006 Business Week cover story
Internet isn’t just a medium, it’s a PLACE
14
Early Virtual Worlds Business Applications
Commerce Collaboration and Eventsand Events
Education Other
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
and TrainingOther Emerging Applications
Within 5 years, 80% of all computing
BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1
Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide will happen “in the cloud”
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
15
No, it won’t.
Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #1
No, it won t.
BUT, within 10 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide will happen “in the
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
worldwide will happen in the cloud”
Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices
BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #2
Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors will be connected to the Net
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
16
Within 10 years, 100 BILLION
Not-quite-so-audacious Prediction #2
Within 10 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors will be connected to the Net
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
TechnicalAgreement and adoption of key standards
Why Not?
g p yIPv6, DNSsec, IPsec, Grid standards
Business practicesCooperation around open standards vs. proprietary lock-in
Culture
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
CultureUsers have to learn to “trust the cloud”CIOs and their teams have to adapt to new roles
Policy
17
Policy – The rate-limiting step
•Hardware•Software•Organizations •People•Policy
GOVERNMENTS’ FIRST CHALLENGE
How to be an early adopter of new technologies ? (such as Virtual Worlds, Grid)To do list:
Move to open standardsExplore open source softwareAddress security
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
Fix procurementChange culture and reorganize
18
Critical technology choicesAuthentication and directoriesOpen Document FormatPrivacy-enhancing technologies (P3P)y g g ( )Digital Rights ManagementFiltering technologies to block spam, pornVoice over IPWireless Internet standardsService-Oriented Architecture (SOA) and Grid computingInstant messagingIP 6 d l t
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
IPv6 deploymentLinking the phone network and the InternetRich media standards (SIP, multicast, etc.)End-to-end vs. walled gardens
Privacy
Updating policies for the Cloud
ySearch warrants, wiretapping in the Cloud?
TransparencyInternational data flowsOnline copyright
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
Liability for cloud service providersWho’s responsible for Illegal activities?
Competition policy
19
Formula for Effective Cloud Policy
C + (OS1)(OS2) = I + (Ch1 )(Ch2)C + (OS1)(OS2) I + (Ch1 )(Ch2)C = CompetitionOS1 = Open StandardsOS2 = Open SourceI = Innovation
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
I InnovationCh1 = ChoiceCh2 = Cheap
1. The Clouds Scenario
Three Possible Futures
2. The Cloudy Skies Scenario3. The Blue Skies Scenario
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
20
The Clouds Scenario
Different, distinct, proprietary cloudsNon-interoperable standardsThe cable television network business model; bottlenecks and monopolies
The Cloudy Skies Scenario
Distinct cloudsInterconnectedCloud applications aren’t interoperableLittle common middleware (e.g. no ( gsingle sign-on)Lots of missed opportunities
21
Blue Skies Scenario
A “cloud of clouds” like the network of networksTruly interoperable clouds services“Mix and match”
Sky’s the Limit!!
Common middlewareOpen Cloud ManifestoAlmost infinite opportunities
ConclusionsThe Internet Revolution is less than 15% complete15% completeCloud computing could be even more disruptive than the World Wide Web –IF it’s as open and competitive as the Web
ASIST 30 Mar 2009
When in doubt, empower the user!
