The Climate Implications of U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas, or LNG, Exports

8212019 The Climate Implications of US Liquefied Natural Gas or LNG Exports

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-climate-implications-of-us-liquefied-natural-gas-or-lng-exports 121 WWWAMERICANPROGRESSO

The Climate Implicationsof US Liquefied Natural

Gas or LNG ExportsBy Gwynne Taraska and Darryl Banks August 2014


httpslidepdfcomreaderfullthe-climate-implications-of-us-liquefied-natural-gas-or-lng-exports 221

The Climate Implicationsof US Liquefied NaturalGas or LNG Exports

By Gwynne Taraska and Darryl Banks August 2014



1 Introduction and summary

3 Background

5 Aspects of an increased exports scenario

that would affect emissions

10 The potential overall effect of LNG exports

on near-term emissions

12 The conditions under which LNG exports

could benefit the climate

13 Recommendations

14 Conclusion

16 Endnotes

Contents



1 Center for American Progress | The Climate Implications of US Liquefied Natural Gas or LNG Exports

Introduction and summary

As he expansion o shale gas producion has posiioned he Unied Saes o

become a poenial ne exporer o naural gas he overall effec ha increased

expors would have on he climae has been in dispue

Many aspecs o an increased naural gas expors scenario would affec emissions

On he one hand naural gas could parially displace he use o coal overseas in

he generaion o elecriciy Tis would pu downward pressure on emissions as

naural gas plans on average emi approximaely 50 percen less carbon dioxideor CO

2 han coal plans1

On he oher hand mehane which is a poen shor-lived greenhouse gas wih

many imes he warming poenial o CO2 escapes ino he amosphere rom leaks

and inenional vening hroughou he naural gas supply chain Alhough cos-

effecive echnologies exis ha minimize he escape o mehane here is evidence

ha curren levels o mehane emissions can be high Recen sudies o air samples

colleced over naural gas producion sies in he wesern Unied Saes reveal

leakage raes o 4 percen a he Denver-Julesburg Basin and 62 percen o 117

percen a he Uina Basin2

Oher aspecs o he naural gas rade urher complicae he climae effec o

expors For example he physical process o ransporing naural gas carries a

sizable emissions penaly Naural gas desined or overseas pors is liquefied

shipped and laer re-gasified Each sage o he expors process resuls in green-

house gas emissions3 A recen analysis rom he Naional Energy echnology

Laboraory esimaes ha liqueacion shipping and re-gasificaion accoun or

approximaely 17 percen o oal emissions associaed wih liquefied naural gas

or LNG expors when he desinaion is Europe and 21 percen o oal emissions when he desinaion is Asia4




I is possible or an increased LNG expors scenario o resul in an overall benefi

or he climae bu he necessary condiions are ormidable In he near erm uel

swiching could drive a ne decrease in global emissions bu only i mehane emis-

sions are sricly conrolled aking a longer view i is imporan o consider wheher

expors o a paricular region would slow a ransiion o a low-carbon economy

Heavy invesmens in naural gas inrasrucure could lock in he use o ossil uelsLNG expors o a paricular region could hereore be deensible rom a climae

perspecive only i he ollowing condiions are me

bull Mehane emissions are sricly conrolled domesically and overseasbull Te expored LNG displaces coal or prevens new use o coalbull Te expored LNG does no displace low-carbon power sources or

impede growh in he use o low-carbon power sources

Tese condiions se a high bar alhough no an impossible one No only mus

he poenial near-erm benefi o LNG expors be realized991252by displacing coaland conrolling mehane emissions991252bu i mus be ensured ha he expors do

no serve o prolong he worldrsquos dependence on ossil uel

Tis repor explains he aspecs o an increased expors scenario ha affec emis-

sions and he condiions ha are necessary or LNG expors o be deensible

rom an emissions sandpoin In addiion given ha many applicaions o expor

LNG have already been approved by he Deparmen o Energy and i is likely ha

urher approvals are orhcoming991252see he nex secion or background inorma-

ion991252his repor makes several recommendaions or miigaing emissions in

he conex o he impending LNG rade and or moving some disance oward

meeing he condiions necessary o see a ne emissions benefi In paricular i

recommends ha he Environmenal Proecion Agency or EPA se enorceable

sringen limis on mehane emissions and ha he Bureau o Land Managemen

or BLM address mehane leakage in he conex o is proposed rules on ven-

ing and flaring I also recommends using any LNG expors o creae dedicaed

revenues o suppor clean energy and energy efficiency




Background

New directions in the US natural gas trade

Te recen expansion in shale gas producion in he Unied Saes has changed

he naural gas rade US naural gas producion reached a record o 7018 billion

cubic ee per day in 2013 and is expeced o increase by 4 percen in 20145 As

he supply o naural gas in he Unied Saes has grown ne impors o naural gas

have been on a downward rend In 2013 ne impors decreased by 14 percen

reaching heir lowes poin since 19896 Te Unied Saes is sill a ne imporer onaural gas i is expeced o be a ne exporer beore 20207

A subsanial increase in expor volumes could have a number o effecs includingeffecs on geopoliics he US economy he US manuacuring secor he envi-

ronmen and he climae A debae hereore has been unolding abou wheher a

subsanial increase in expors should be blocked or encouraged A previous CAP

repor iled ldquoUS Liquefied Naural Gas Expor A Primer on he Process and he

Debaerdquo covers his ground his paper ocuses exclusively on he climae effecs o

increased expors8

FIGURE 1

US natural gas net imports 2005-2013

Billion cubic feet or Bcf

2005

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 20132009

US Energy Information Administration US Natural Gas Imports amp Exports 2013 available at httpwwweiagovnaturalgasim-portsexportsannual (last accessed July 2014)

3612 34623785

30212604

19631519

1311

2679




Regulatory conditions for export

Tere are wo regulaory requiremens or proposed LNG expor aciliies Te

firs is approval by he Federal Energy Regulaory Commission or FERC As

required by he Naural Gas Ac FERC mus approve he consrucion and siing

o onshore or near-shore LNG expor erminals9

As required by he NaionalEnvironmenal Policy Ac or NEPA FERC assesses he environmenal effecs o

LNG projecs under is jurisdicion An environmenal impac saemen mus be

prepared or projecs ha will have a significan effec on he environmen

Te second regulaory requiremen is approval by he US Deparmen o

Energy or DOE Under he Naural Gas Ac DOE is required o immediaely

approve applicaions o expor LNG o counries wih which he Unied Saes

has a ree-rade agreemen or FA For applicaions o expor LNG o non-FA

counries DOE grans auhorizaion unless i finds ha he projec is a odds

wih he public ineres Some o he larges markes or LNG are currenly non-FA regions such as Japan and Europe10

In June 2014 he House passed a bill ha would require DOE o decide applica-

ions wihin 30 days o he conclusion o he NEPA process Te bill would also

require he applican o publicly disclose he desinaion counries I has been

sen o he Senae11

Current state of applications to export LNG to non-FTA countries

Since graning long-erm auhorizaion in May 2011 or he Sabine Pass erminal

(Louisiana) o expor LNG o non-FA counries DOE has approved applica-

ions rom Freepor LNG (exas) Lake Charles Expors (Louisiana) Dominion

Cove Poin (Maryland) Jordan Cove Energy Projec (Oregon) Cameron LNG

(Louisiana) and mos recenly Oregon LNG on July 31 201412 More han 20

addiional applicaions o expor LNG o non-FA counries are under review13

Sabine Pass Cameron LNG and Freepor LNG have also received approval

rom FERC Te Sabine Pass projec is under consrucion and is expeced o begin expors in lae 201514 Te Freepor and Cameron projecs are expeced

o begin consrucion laer his year wih commercial operaions beginning in

2018 and 201915




Aspects of an increased

exports scenario that

would affect emissions

Te quesion o wheher exporing subsanial volumes o LNG would resul in

a ne benefi or he climae is complicaed by he ac ha many aspecs o an

increased expors scenario991252such as increased domesic producion emissions

rom he expors process uel swiching and mehane leakage991252would affec

greenhouse gas emissions

Increased domestic production andassociated greenhouse gas emissions

An increase in LNG expors would cause an increase in he domesic producion

o naural gas A 2012 sudy by he US Energy Inormaion Adminisraion or

EIA esimaed ha 60 percen o 70 percen o expors would be supplied by

increased naural gas producion16

As he producion o naural gas causes boh CO2 and mehane emissions an

increase in LNG expors would cause an increase in domesic greenhouse gas

emissions Tere have been a number o sudies o he ooprin o naural gas

beore i reaches he power plan For example an analysis by he Naional

Energy echnology Laboraory or NEL esimaes ha ldquoupsreamrdquo greenhouse

gas emissions991252rom he exracion and processing o naural gas and he rans-

mission o naural gas hrough US pipelines991252are 91 grams o CO2-equivalen

per megajoule or g CO2eMJ or naural gas rom he Marcellus Shale in he

easern Unied Saes17 An analysis by Chrisopher L Weber and Chrisopher

Clavin which examines six sudies o he upsream ooprin o naural gas finds

a mean o 146 CO2eMJ or shale gas18

Te exac upsream ooprin o naural gas is debaed a main poin o conen-

ion is he rae o mehane leakage which is discussed separaely below However

many sudies o upsream emissions will need o adjus heir numbers upward in

ligh o he laes science Te Fifh Assessmen Repor o he Inergovernmenal

Panel on Climae Change finds ha mehane raps 85 imes as much hea as CO2

over a 20-year ime rame and 30 imes as much hea over a 100-year ime rame19




Many o he sudies above rely on he now-oudaed figure ha mehane raps

25 imes as much hea over a 100-year ime rame I is also imporan o noe

ha sudies ypically use he longer ime rame and hereore do no reflec he

shor-erm poency o mehane Using he shorer ime rame he NEL figure

or he upsream ooprin o gas rom he Marcellus Shale jumps rom 91 g

CO2eMJ o 205 g CO2eMJ20

Upsream greenhouse gas emissions are hereore a main consideraion when

evaluaing he climae effec o LNG expors o pu he figures in perspecive

upsream emissions were equivalen o roughly a quarer o he emissions rom

naural gas power plan operaions in NELrsquos recen analysis o expor scenarios

using he 100-year ime rame or he global warming poenial o mehane Tey

were equivalen o more han hal o he emissions rom naural gas power plan

operaions using he 20-year ime rame21

I may be relevan o US policymakers ha he emissions rom naural gas

producion would obviously be incurred domesically whereas he bulk o he

emissions reducions caused by expors991252rom uel swiching or example991252

would be incurred overseas From a global perspecive however upsream emis-

sions associaed wih increased producion are only one o he acors relevan

o he quesion o wheher LNG expors would have a posiive or negaive effecon he climae

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (2014) available at httpwwwipccchindexht-

mU0QQ7GbD-70

FIGURE 2

Global warming potential of methane

Methane causes approximately 30 times as much warming over a 100-year time

frame as an equivalent mass of carbon dioxide

1 poundof methane

=

30 pounds of carbon dioxide




Beore moving on o hese oher acors i is worh noing991252alhough he environ-

menal and healh effecs o increased producion are ormally ouside he scope o

his paper991252ha he majoriy o increased producion would come rom shale or-

maions Exracing naural gas rom shale is accomplished hrough hydraulic rac-

uring or racking which carries a raf o well-known risks including surace waer

and groundwaer polluion air polluion earhquakes and habia desrucion22

Greenhouse gas emissions from the exports process

Naural gas desined or overseas is firs liquefied hen shipped and finally re-gas-

ified Each sep o he process carries an emissions penaly According o NELrsquos

recen analysis liqueacion shipping and re-gasificaion accoun or approxi-

maely 17 percen o oal greenhouse gas emissions991252rom exracion hrough

power disribuion991252in he scenario o LNG expors o Europe and 21 percen ooal greenhouse gas emissions in he scenario o LNG expors o Asia23

Te expors process also carries an energy penaly NEL finds ha 8 percen o

naural gas ha reaches a liqueacion aciliy would be used o power he liqueac-

ion process24 An EIA analysis assumes a 10 percen loss due o gas used o power

he liqueacion process25

National Energy Technology Laboratory ldquoLife Cycle Greenhouse Gas Perspective on Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas from the UnitedStatesrdquo (2014) available at httpenergygovsitesprodfiles201405f16Life20Cycle20GHG20Perspective20Reportpdf

FIGURE 3

Percentage of total greenhouse gas emissions from LNG

per life-cycle stage

European scenario

Production

and transport

ShippingLiquefaction

3

67

16

10

4

Regasification

Power plant

operations and

electricity transmission

and distribution




Fuel switching and changes in electricity demand overseas

LNG is expeced o displace some amoun o coal in power generaion over-

seas26 Tis is a reasonable assumpion LNG buyers including China India

Japan Germany and Korea currenly use a subsanial amoun o coal or power

generaion27

In ac hese counries are in he global op 10 in erms o elecric-iy generaion by coal28 For example in Japan coal is he second-larges source o

elecriciy behind gas and ahead o oil and nuclear29 Coal is he larges source in

Germany Korea and China30

As greenhouse gas emissions rom he combusion o coal are more han wice he

emissions rom he combusion o naural gas coal-o-gas swiching pus more

downward pressure on greenhouse gas emissions han any o he oher effecs o

LNG expors31 Tis however mus be weighed agains acors ha pu upward

pressure on emissions such as increased producion and mehane leakage as well

as he ac ha LNG could cu ino no jus he use o coal in power generaion bualso he use o clean energy sources

Furhermore LNG expors are also expeced o reduce prices or naural gas

overseas which in urn is expeced o increase demand or elecriciy overseas and

hereore pu some upward pressure on greenhouse gas emissions

Fuel switching and changes in electricity demand in the United States

While he price o naural gas overseas is expeced o decline wih an influx o

LNG expors he price o naural gas in he Unied Saes is widely expeced o

increase32 Tis is expeced o conribue o an increase in he price o elecriciy

resuling in a decrease in demand or elecriciy which would pu some down-

ward pressure on emissions

In conras an increase in he price o naural gas is also expeced o reduce he

use o naural gas in elecriciy generaion According o a previous EIA analysis

65 percen o he reducion in naural gas-fired generaion is offse by an increase

in coal-fired generaion which would pu upward pressure on emissions33

TeEPArsquos proposed plan o reduce emissions rom power plans however may pre-

ven a shif oward coal




EIA is currenly updaing is analysis and DOE is commissioning a new sudy on

he economic effecs o LNG expors which will clariy he effec o expors on

he domesic uel mix and energy demand34

Emissions from methane leakage

Mehane escapes ino he amosphere hroughou he lie cycle o naural gas

Tese emissions could significanly cu ino he climae benefis o replacing coal

wih naural gas in he elecric-power secor i he rae o mehane emissions is high

Te rae o mehane emissions rom naural gas sysems is conenious and differs

rom sudy o sudy NEL esimaes ha 11 percen o produced gas escapes ino

he amosphere rom exracion hrough delivery o domesic large-scale consum-

ers35 Te EPArsquos esimae o mehane leakage is 15 percen o gross producion

bu several noable new analyses including a sudy by Sco Miller and ohers andanoher by AR Brand and ohers find ha official invenories o mehane emis-

sions need o be revised significanly upward36 A sudy rom Andrew Burnham

and ohers finds he leakage rae or unconvenional naural gas o be 201 percen

and a sudy rom Weber and Clavin finds he rae o be 242 percen37 Recen

sudies ha have colleced air samples over naural gas producion sies in he

wesern Unied Saes have ound raes ha are even higher such as 4 percen over

he Denver-Julesburg Basin and 62 percen o 117 percen over he Uina Basin38

Tese sudies show ha alhough mehane emissions can be kep low wih

adequae equipmen and monioring991252see or example a sudy by David Allen

and ohers ha finds a leakage rae o 042 percen a well-mainained producion

sies991252he realiy can be quie differen39 Mehane emissions991252rom he domesic

producion sie o he gae o he overseas power plan991252are hereore a primary

acor in he deerminaion o he climae effec o LNG expors



10 Center for American Progress | The Clim ate Impl icat ions of U S Liquefied Natural Gas or LNG Exports

The potential overall effect of LNG

exports on near-term emissions

Given ha some aspecs o an increased LNG expors scenario would pu upward

pressure on emissions and some would pu downward pressure on emissions

here has been disagreemen abou he overall effec on he climae40

NEL recenly released an analysis o he overall effec ha LNG expors could

have on global emissions which used he newes inormaion abou he global

warming poenial o mehane I held ha exporing US LNG or power

generaion would resul in a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions compared oscenarios where regionally sourced coal is used or power generaion According

o NEL he decrease would be 28 percen in he case o expors o Europe

and 25 percen in he case o expors o Asia using he 20-year global warming

poenial o mehane I would be 42 percen and 39 percen respecively using

he 100-year ime rame which masks he shor-erm poency o mehane41

FIGURE 4

Greenhouse gas emissions US LNG versus regionally sourced coal

kg CO₂eMWh

Europe Asia

1200

900

600

300

0

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

Source National Energy Technology Laboratory ldquoLife Cycle Greenhouse Gas Perspective on Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas f romthe United Statesrdquo (2014) available at httpenergygovsitesprodfiles201405f16Life20Cy-

cle20GHG20Perspective20Reportpdf

20-year global warming potential of methane


1095 1089

787 824

660

1095 1089

629




I is worh noing ha he analysis does no ake ino accoun EPArsquos New Source

Perormance Sandards which according o NEL would reduce emissions rom

he US LNG scenarios by 34 percen42

However a sriking finding o he analysis is ha here is some overlap beween

he uncerainy ranges o he US LNG scenario and he regional coal scenario in Asia when he greenhouse gas resuls use he 20-year global warming poenial o

mehane NEL mainains ha he overlap is based in par ldquoon an assumpion o

high mehane leakage (16)rdquo43 Bu i is clear rom recen sudies ha 16 percen

does no consiue an assumpion o high leakage Te ldquobreakeven leakagerdquo991252ha

is o say he poin a which emissions rom he LNG scenario equal emissions

rom he regional coal scenario991252is 19 percen or Europe and 14 percen or

Asia on he 20-year ime rame Given recen sudies i is likely ha hese break-

even poins would be exceeded under curren condiions

In addiion he NEL sudy does no ake ino accoun pipeline ranspor in heimporing counry Insead i assumes ha he power plan is near he re-gasificaion

aciliy aking pipeline ranspor ino accoun could increase mehane esimaes in

he LNG scenarios and urher offse any advanage o US LNG over regional coal

TABLE 1

Breakeven methane leakage rates for US LNG

LNG to Europe LNG to Asia

20-year time frame 19 14


Source National Energy Technology Laboratory ldquoLife Cycle Greenhouse Gas Perspective on Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas from the United

Statesrdquo (2014) available at httpenergygovsitesprodfiles201405f16Life20Cycle20GHG20Perspective20Reportpdf

Te NEL analysis makes i clear ha LNG expors have he poenial o decrease

near-erm emissions i hey subsiue or coal bu a more realisic esimae o

curren leakage raes makes i clear ha expors could do more harm han good in

he absence o adequae measures o conrol mehane Te oulook could be even

bleaker i LNG displaces no only coal bu also low-carbon power sources

I should be noed ha he NEL sudy991252and his paper991252concerns only power

generaion a sudy is also needed or expored LNG desined or oher secors

such as he indusrial and residenial secors




The conditions under which LNG

exports could benefit the climate

Even i LNG expors resul in a modes near-erm decrease in emissions hey

could do long-erm damage o he climae i hey cause heavy invesmens in

naural gas erminals and power plans ha serve o prolong he use o ossil uels

in he worldrsquos energy sysems As discussed in a previous CAP repor iled ldquoUS

Naural Gas Mus Peak by 2030rdquo naural gas has emissions benefis compared o

coal bu i is no a soluion or global warming44

In order or LNG expors o a paricular region o mainain some climae benefiover he long erm i is hereore necessary no only or mehane emissions o be

conrolled and or he LNG o be used o displace coal raher han displacing low-

carbon energy or local naural gas I is also imperaive ha invesmens in naural

gas inrasrucure do no hamper a ransiion o a low-carbon economy

I may be difficul991252alhough no impossible991252or hese condiions o be me

Follow-up work will be needed o deermine wheher likely LNG imporers

mee hem




Recommendations

A cerain level o LNG expors is ineviable given applicaions already approved

by US regulaory bodies I is also possible ha nonclimae consideraions such

as economic and geopoliical consideraions will poliically dominae concerns

abou locking in he use o ossil uels Tis underlines he imporance o ideniy-

ing and hen implemening measures o conrol mehane along wih measures o

leverage LNG expors o financially suppor clean energy

bull The EPA should set enforceable stringent limits on methane emissions

through the Clean Air Act Presiden Barack Obama recenly released his

Sraegy o Reduce Mehane Emissions in which he direcs he EPA o assess

sources o mehane leakage rom oil and gas sysems Te EPA has compleed

a se o whie papers and is currenly considering wheher o drive mehane

reducions hrough regulaions

bull The BLM should also establish standards to reduce methane leakage Te

Bureau o Land Managemen is in he process o developing a proposed rule

o curb mehane emissions rom he vening and flaring o gas rom oil and gas

developmen on ederal lands Tey should also address mehane leakage in he

conex o his rulemaking

bull The United States should consider ways of pricing LNG to capture the external-

ities of fossil fuels and help drive emissions reductions A previous CAP report

suggested that fees991252including a possible export fee991252should be assessed on

natural gas45 Policymakers should explore the options for utilizing the natural

gas expansion in the United States to create dedicated revenues to support clean

energy and energy efficiency46

In addiion he Deparmen o Energy when evaluaing expor applicaions in he

uure should ake ino accoun he long-erm climae effec o urher expors

I also may wan o consider wheher he applicanrsquos planned conracs are wih

companies ha paricipae in mehane reducion programs such as he Climae

and Clean Air Coaliionrsquos Oil and Gas Mehane Parnership




Conclusion

Much has been made o he climae benefi o displacing coal wih naural gas and

o he associaed mehane emissions which work o offse ha benefi Bu while

he sric conrol o mehane worldwide and he displacemen o coal in he gen-

eraion o elecriciy are necessary condiions or LNG expors o be deensible

rom a climae perspecive hey are insufficien I would be shorsighed o setle

or mehane reducions a he cos o locking in avoidable levels o CO2 emissions

rom he combusion o naural gas Naural gas may be cleaner han coal bu i

sill produces significan levels o carbon emissions upon combusion From a cli-mae perspecive LNG expors o a paricular region are hereore deensible only

i hey resul in a near-erm emissions benefi and in addiion do no serve o pro-

long he worldrsquos dependence on ossil uels and he associaed carbon polluion




About the authors

Gwynne Taraska is a Senior Policy Advisor or he Energy Policy eam a he

Cener or American Progress She is also he research direcor and inerim

direcor o he Insiue or Philosophy and Public Policy a George Mason

Universiy araska works on inernaional and domesic climae and energypolicy Her recen work has ocused on inernaional climae negoiaions adapa-

ion markes and naural gas policy She has a docorae rom he Universiy o

Washingon where she specialized in symbolic logics

Darryl Banks is a Senior Fellow a he Cener or American Progress Prior o join-

ing he Cener Banks served as he depuy direcor o Te Naure Conservancyrsquos

New York sae affiliae He also served as depuy commissioner o he New York

Sae Deparmen o Environmenal Conservaion and had a long enure a he

World Resources Insiue Banks is a published auhor in he areas o renewable

energy and clean energy echnologies carbon managemen corporae susainabil-iy and environmenal-managemen services

Acknowledgments

Tanks very much o Pee Ogden Greg Doson Nidhi Takar Mat Lee-Ashley

and Miranda Peerson or heir suggesions on his manuscrip




Endnotes

1 US Environmental Protection Agency ldquoNatural Gasrdquoavailable at httpwwwepagovcleanenergyenergy-and-youaffectnatural-gashtml (last accessed July2014)

2 Jeff Tollefson ldquoAir Sampling Reveals High Emissions

from Gas Fieldrdquo Nature February 7 2012 available athttpwwwnaturecomnewsair-sampling-reveals-high-emissions-from-gas-field-19982 CooperativeInstitute for Research in Environmental SciencesldquoCIRES NOAA Observe Significant Methane Leaks in aUtah Natural Gas Fieldrdquo Press release August 5 2013available at httpcirescoloradoedunewspress2013methaneleakshtml

3 Natural gas is liquefied before transport by tankerbecause the volume of natural gas in its liquid state isonly 1600 of its volume as a gas

4 Timothy J Skone and others ldquoLife Cycle GreenhouseGas Perspective on Exporting Liquefied Natural Gasfrom the United Statesrdquo (Washington National Energy

Technology Laboratory 2014)

5 Total marketed production US Energy Information

Administration ldquoShort-Term Energy Outlook 2014 Table 5a US Natural Gas Supply Consumption andInventoriesrdquo available at httpwwweiagovforecastssteotablestableNumber=15 (last accessed July 2014)

6 US Energy Information Administration ldquoUS NaturalGas Imports amp Exports 2013rdquo available at httpwwweiagovnaturalgasimportsexportsannual (last ac-cessed July 2014)

7 US Energy Information Administration ldquoInternationalEnergy Outlook 2013 Natural Gasrdquo (2013) available athttpwwweiagovforecastsieonat_gascfm

8 Gwynne Taraska ldquoUS Liquefied Natural Gas ExportsA Primer on the Process and the Debaterdquo (Washing-ton Center for American Progress 2013) availableat httpwwwamericanprogressorgissuesgreenreport2013110578610u-s-liquefied-natural-gas-

exports

9 Offshore facilities are under the jurisdiction of theMaritime Administration or MARAD The vast majorityof applications to export LNG to countries with whichthe United States does not have a free-trade agreementare for facilities under the jurisdiction of FERC

10 It should be noted that Japan is one of the countriesinvolved in the Trans-Pacific Partnership which is atrade agreement currently under negotiation among11 countries including the United States and Canada

11 Domestic Prosperity and Global Freedom Act H Rept 6113 Cong 2 Sess (Government Printing O ffice 2014)

12 US Department of Energy ldquoEnergy DepartmentConditionally Authorizes Oregon LNG to Export Lique-fied Natural Gasrdquo Press release July 31 2014 available

at httpenergygovarticlesenergy-department-conditionally-authorizes-oregon-lng-export-liquefied-natural-gas

13 US Department of Energy ldquoLong Term ApplicationsReceived by DOEFE to Export Domestically ProducedLNG from the Lower-48 States (as of June 11 2014)rdquo(2014) available at httpenergygovsitesprodfiles201406f16Summary20of20LNG20Ex-port20Applicationspdf

14 Cheniere Energy ldquoSabine Liquefaction Project Sched-ulerdquo available at httpwwwchenierecomsabine_liq-uefactionproject_scheduleshtml (last accessed July2014)

15 Cameron LNG ldquoExpansion Updaterdquo available at http

cameronlngcomexpansion-updatehtml (last accessedJuly 2014) Freeport LNG ldquoProject Status and Schedulerdquoavailable at httpwwwfreeportlngcomProject_Sta-tusasp (last accessed July 2014)

16 The remaining amount of exportsmdash30 percent to 40percentmdashwould be diverted from existing productionthat would have been consumed in the United Statesin the absence of dampened demand caused by highernatural gas prices A minor fraction of exports would besupplied by imports from Canada US Energy Informa-tion Administration ldquoEffect of Increased Natural GasExports on Domestic Energy Markets As Requested bythe Office of Fossil Energyrdquo (2012) available at httpenergygovsitesprodfiles201304f0fe_eia_lngpdf

17 Anthony Zammerilli and others ldquoEnvironmental Im-pacts of Unconventional Natural Gas Development andProductionrdquo (Washington National Energy Technology

Laboratory 2014)

18 The uncertainty range in Weber and Clavin for shale is110 g CO

2eMJLHV to 210 g CO

2eMJLHV The six stud-

ies examined are from NETL Stephenson BurnhamHultman Howarth and Jiang Christopher L Weberand Christopher Clavin ldquoLife Cycle Carbon Footprintof Shale Gas Review of Evidence and ImplicationsrdquoEnvironmental Science and Technology 46 (2012) 5688ndash5695 The focus is on th e figures for shale rather thanconventional gas as the majority of new productionwould come from shale sources However upstreamemissions from conventional and shale sources havebeen found to be comparable See for example Weberand Clavin

19 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ldquoFifthAssessment Reportrdquo (2014)

20 Timothy J Skone and others ldquoLife Cycle Analysis ofNatural Gas Extraction and Power Generationrdquo (Wash-ington National Energy Technology Laboratory 2014)

21 Skone and others ldquoLife Cycle Greenhouse Gas Perspec-tive on Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas from th eUnited Statesrdquo The IPCC AR5 figures for the globalwarming potential of methane were used

22 According to an EIA analysis 75 percent of increasedproduction would come from shale sources USEnergy Information Administration ldquoEffect of IncreasedNatural Gas Exports on Domestic Energy Marketsrdquo TomKenworthy and others ldquoDrilling Down on Fracking Con-cerns The Potential and Peril of Hydraulic Fracturing toDrill for Natural Gasrdquo (Washington Center for AmericanProgress 2011) available at httpwwwamerican-progressorgissuesgreenreport201103219241drilling-down-on-fracking-concerns

23 Using the current IPCC AR5 global warming potential ofmethane over a 100-year time frame Skone and othersldquoLife Cycle Greenhouse Gas Perspective on ExportingLiquefied Natural Gas from the United Statesrdquo

24 Zammerilli and others ldquoEnvironmental Impacts ofUnconventional Natural Gas Development and Produc-tionrdquo




25 US Energy Information Administration ldquoEffect ofIncreased Natural Gas Exports on Domestic EnergyMarketsrdquo

26 Michael Levi ldquoA Strategy for US Natural Gas Exportsrdquo(Washington The Hamilton Project 2012)

27 International Energy Agency ldquoStatistics by Region2011rdquo available at httpwwwieaorgstatisticsstatis-ticssearch (last accessed July 2014)

28 International Energy Agency ldquoKey World Energy Statis-

ticsrdquo (2013)

29 International Energy Agency ldquoStatistics by Regionrdquo

30 Ibid

31 See Skone and others ldquoLife Cycle Greenhouse GasPerspective on Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas fromthe United Statesrdquo In this analysis combustion in th escenario of regionally sourced coal produces more thantwice the emissions as combustion in the LNG scenario

32 In an analysis by EIA the price increases in its exportscenarios peak between 14 percent and 36 percentabove the reference case and consumers pay up to3 percent more for electricity US Energy Informa-tion Administration ldquoEffect of Increased Natural GasExports on Domestic Energy Marketsrdquo In an analysisby Kemal Sarica and Wallace Tyner the price increases

in its export scenarios peak between 16 percent and47 percent above the reference case Kemal Saricaand Wallace E Tyner ldquoEconomic and EnvironmentalImpacts of Increased US Exports of Natural Gasrdquo (WestLafayette IN Purdue University 2013)


34 Christopher A Smith ldquoA Proposed Change to theEnergy Departmentrsquos LNG Export Decision-MakingProceduresrdquo US Department of Energy May 29 2014available at httpenergygovarticlesproposed-change-energy-departments-lng-export-decision-making-procedures

35 Skone and others ldquoLife Cycle Analysis of Natural GasExtraction and Power Generationrdquo

36 Scot Miller and others ldquoAnthropogenic Emissions ofMethane in the United Statesrdquo PNAS (2013) A R Brandtand others ldquoMethane Leaks from North AmericanNatural Gas Systemsrdquo Science 343 (2014) 733-735

37 Andrew Burnham and others ldquoLife-Cycle GreenhouseGas Emissions of Shale Gas Natural Gas Coal and Petro-leumrdquoEnvironmental Science and Technology 46 (2012)619ndash627 Weber and Clavin ldquoLife Cycle Carbon Footprintof Shale Gas Review of Evidence and Implicationsrdquo Theseand other leakage rates are given in James Bradburyand others ldquoClearing the Air Reducing Upstream Green-house Gas Emissions from US Natural Gas Systemsrdquo(Washington World Resources Institute 2013)

38 Tollefson ldquoAir Sampling Reveals High Emissions fromGas Fieldrdquo Cooperative Institute for Research in Envi-

ronmental Sciences ldquoCIRES NOAA Observe SignificantMethane Leaks in a Utah Natural Gas Fieldrdquo

39 David T Allen and others ldquoMeasurements of MethaneEmissions at Natural Gas Production Sites in the UnitedStatesrdquo PNAS (2013)

40 For the net-detriment argument see for example JoeRomm ldquoEnergy Department Bombshell LNG Has NoClimate Benefit for Decades if Everrdquo Climate ProgressJune 4 2014 available at httpthinkprogressorgclimate201406043443211energy-department-lng-no-climate-benefits See also James BradburyldquoTestimony of James Bradburyrdquo Testimony before theUS House of R epresentatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Energy and Powerrdquo ldquoUS EnergyAbundance Exports and the Changing Global EnergyLandscaperdquo May 7 2013 For the net-benefit argumentfocused on fuel switching which is commonly found

in the natural gas industr y see for example Centerfor Liquefied Natural Gas ldquoAbout LNG Environmentrdquoavailable at httpwwwlngfactsorgabout-lngenvi-ronment (last accessed July 2014)

41 Skone and others ldquoLife Cycle Greenhouse Gas Perspec-tive on Exporting Liquefied Natural Gas from theUnited Statesrdquo

42 Ibid

43 Ibid

44 Darryl Banks and Gwynne Taraska ldquoUS Natural Gas UseMust Peak by 2030rdquo (Washington Center for AmericanProgress 2013) available at httpwwwamerican-progressorgissuesgreenreport2013072470583u-s-natural-gas-use-must-peak-by-2030

45 Ibid

46 Other groups have recently endorsed an LNG exportfee as well See for example Melissa Carey and JoshuaFreed ldquoHow a Fee on Fossil Exports Can Make the USa Clean Energy Superpowerrdquo (Washington Third Way2014) available at httpwwwthirdwayorgpublica-tions788



The Center for American Progress is a nonpartisan research and educational institute

dedicated to promoting a strong just and free America that ensures opportunity

for all We believe that Americans are bound together by a common commitment to

these values and we aspire to ensure that our national policies reflect these values

We work to find progressive and pragmatic solutions to significant domestic and

international problems and develop policy proposals that foster a government that

is ldquoof the people by the people and for the peoplerdquo



The Climate Implicationsof US Liquefied NaturalGas or LNG Exports

By Gwynne Taraska and Darryl Banks August 2014




3 Background







13 Recommendations

14 Conclusion

16 Endnotes

Contents












2 han coal plans1
















































Background













increased expors8

FIGURE 1



2005

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 20132009


3612 34623785

30212604

19631519

1311

2679





















sen o he Senae11











2018 and 201915

























































mU0QQ7GbD-70

FIGURE 2




1 poundof methane

=






















FIGURE 3



European scenario

Production

and transport


3

67

16

10

4

Regasification

Power plant

operations and


and distribution








generaion27




































































FIGURE 4


kg CO₂eMWh

Europe Asia

1200

900

600

300

0

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal





1095 1089

787 824

660

1095 1089

629



















TABLE 1
































mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid














3 Background







13 Recommendations

14 Conclusion

16 Endnotes

Contents












2 han coal plans1
















































Background













increased expors8

FIGURE 1



2005

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 20132009


3612 34623785

30212604

19631519

1311

2679





















sen o he Senae11











2018 and 201915

























































mU0QQ7GbD-70

FIGURE 2




1 poundof methane

=






















FIGURE 3



European scenario

Production

and transport


3

67

16

10

4

Regasification

Power plant

operations and


and distribution








generaion27




































































FIGURE 4


kg CO₂eMWh

Europe Asia

1200

900

600

300

0

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal





1095 1089

787 824

660

1095 1089

629



















TABLE 1
































mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid






















2 han coal plans1
















































Background













increased expors8

FIGURE 1



2005

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 20132009


3612 34623785

30212604

19631519

1311

2679





















sen o he Senae11











2018 and 201915

























































mU0QQ7GbD-70

FIGURE 2




1 poundof methane

=






















FIGURE 3



European scenario

Production

and transport


3

67

16

10

4

Regasification

Power plant

operations and


and distribution








generaion27




































































FIGURE 4


kg CO₂eMWh

Europe Asia

1200

900

600

300

0

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal





1095 1089

787 824

660

1095 1089

629



















TABLE 1
































mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid










































Background













increased expors8

FIGURE 1



2005

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 20132009


3612 34623785

30212604

19631519

1311

2679





















sen o he Senae11











2018 and 201915

























































mU0QQ7GbD-70

FIGURE 2




1 poundof methane

=






















FIGURE 3



European scenario

Production

and transport


3

67

16

10

4

Regasification

Power plant

operations and


and distribution








generaion27




































































FIGURE 4


kg CO₂eMWh

Europe Asia

1200

900

600

300

0

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal





1095 1089

787 824

660

1095 1089

629



















TABLE 1
































mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid































sen o he Senae11











2018 and 201915

























































mU0QQ7GbD-70

FIGURE 2




1 poundof methane

=






















FIGURE 3



European scenario

Production

and transport


3

67

16

10

4

Regasification

Power plant

operations and


and distribution








generaion27




































































FIGURE 4


kg CO₂eMWh

Europe Asia

1200

900

600

300

0

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal





1095 1089

787 824

660

1095 1089

629



















TABLE 1
































mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid



































































mU0QQ7GbD-70

FIGURE 2




1 poundof methane

=






















FIGURE 3



European scenario

Production

and transport


3

67

16

10

4

Regasification

Power plant

operations and


and distribution








generaion27




































































FIGURE 4


kg CO₂eMWh

Europe Asia

1200

900

600

300

0

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal





1095 1089

787 824

660

1095 1089

629



















TABLE 1
































mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid































FIGURE 3



European scenario

Production

and transport


3

67

16

10

4

Regasification

Power plant

operations and


and distribution








generaion27




































































FIGURE 4


kg CO₂eMWh

Europe Asia

1200

900

600

300

0

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal





1095 1089

787 824

660

1095 1089

629



















TABLE 1
































mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid


















generaion27




































































FIGURE 4


kg CO₂eMWh

Europe Asia

1200

900

600

300

0

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal





1095 1089

787 824

660

1095 1089

629



















TABLE 1
































mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid






















































FIGURE 4


kg CO₂eMWh

Europe Asia

1200

900

600

300

0

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal

US LNG Regionally

sourced coal





1095 1089

787 824

660

1095 1089

629



















TABLE 1
































mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid





























TABLE 1
































mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid




























mee hem




Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid














Recommendations
































Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid














Conclusion














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid














About the authors













Acknowledgments






Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid














Endnotes












exports












Laboratory 2014)


2eMJLHV to 210 g CO
















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid


















ticsrdquo (2013)


30 Ibid















42 Ibid

43 Ibid


45 Ibid











The Climate Implications of U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas, or LNG, Exports

Documents

Transcript of The Climate Implications of U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas, or LNG, Exports