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Transcript of The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14,...
![Page 1: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Climate ChangeChallenge for AgricultureThe Climate ChangeChallenge for Agriculture
Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar
March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
At issue is how the world will manage its carbon and nitrogen stocks sustainablyAt issue is how the world will manage its carbon and nitrogen stocks sustainably
![Page 2: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
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International
Trade & Development
Food Safety and Food Quality
EnvironmentScience and Innovation
Renewal
Business Risk Management
The APF elements:
The Agriculture Policy Framework (APF) is our basis for moving forward...
![Page 3: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
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Environment:
• Farm EnvironmentalPlanning
• Managing:- pests,- nutrients- nuisances - land and water
Environment:
• Farm EnvironmentalPlanning
• Managing:- pests,- nutrients- nuisances - land and water
WaterNutrients Pathogens Pesticides
SoilErosionOrganic matter
Biodiversity
Wildlife habitat Species at risk Wildlife damage
AirParticulatesGreenhousegasesOdours
Innovation
•Biofuels,
• Bioproducts
• Bioprocesses
Innovation
•Biofuels,
• Bioproducts
• Bioprocesses
…to promote sustainable and profitable resource use...
![Page 4: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
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…where addressing climate change is about contributing to environmental solutions that
are economically sustainable
• Climate change is all about managing the carbon and nitrogen cycles
• Agriculture is based on using energy from the sun for photosynthesis to transform carbon & nitrogen into food, fibre and bio-products consumed by humans
• Agriculture Policy Framework links goals for environmental management and innovation to better manage natural resources, based on carbon and nitrogen cycles
![Page 5: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
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Climate change is a global challenge…changing how we manage C & N
• All nations, industries and citizens need to learn to sustainably manage carbon, nitrogen and other sources of greenhouse gases
• Agriculture has an important role in these cycles (20% of global emissions)
• The challenge is to learn to profitably recycle rather than extract carbon and nitrogen
• Canada has opportunities to use its leadership in agricultural GHG science to create advantages in world markets
![Page 6: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
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Reduce
Remove Replace
Greenhouse gasemissions
Innovate to replace fossil fuels with bio-based
energy, chemicals and materials
Atmospheric C to store in soils and perennial
crops
AgriculturalGHG
Management
AdaptUse science, innovation & business risk management to adapt to climate change
Agriculture has many unique opportunities to manage greenhouse gases ...
![Page 7: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
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Agriculture Emission Sources
18.5
7.17
12.4
16.11
1
0 10 20
Enteric fermentation
Crops
Fertilizers
Manure
Other
So
urc
es
Tg CO2 Equivalent1996
Gas % of Emissions
CO2 3%CH4 41%N2O 56%
Agriculture’s primary energy source is the sun, not fossil fuels.
…because agriculture’s biological processes make us different from
energy users
![Page 8: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
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We have opportunities to reduce emissions and improve productivity
• Emissions represent inefficient use of resources:– Increasing efficiency can improve the economic
performance and reduce the environmental footprint of agriculture. Some opportunities are to:
• Improve nutrient use efficiency
• Improve efficiency of livestock feeding
• For 2008-12 -- 1 Mt emissions reductions (mostly N2O & CH4)
• We can make efficiency gains now, but more science and technology are needed:
• to improve understanding and control of nitrous oxide and methane emissions
• to pave way for better management practices and technologies
![Page 9: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
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We have opportunities to remove carbon dioxide from the air in ways that
enhance sustainable resource use
• Improve management of soil & grazing lands
• Improve marginal land management– Promote permanent cover/perennial growth,
agroforestry, etc (Greencover is a start providing 1.1 MT)
• Invest in science• improve sequestration techniques & measurement
• position ourselves to consider other land bases (eg. Wetlands) in order to support public policy development
• 10 Mt BAU sink to maintain
• For 2008-12 -- 7.7 Mt incremental sinks
![Page 10: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
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We have opportunities to innovate to replace conventional with renewable feedstocks to
link us with future economic growth• Innovation in biofuels, bioproducts &
bioprocesses– Use ethanol & biodiesel to address current
emissions: • Encourage policies for Canadian ethanol/biodiesel
market and industry development that keeps sourcing, production & benefits in Canada, and builds industrial base for future.
– Put in place building blocks for future technology• Research, technology development, demonstration and
industry development to improve efficiency of grain-based ethanol in short-term and cellulosic ethanol in the medium term
• Invest in research, analysis and industrial development to lay foundation for long-term transition to renewable bioproducts & bioprocesses
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0removeremove
replacereplace
reducereduce
An
nu
al im
pa
ct o
f m
itig
ativ
e s
tra
teg
ies
(re
lati
ve
to
bu
sin
ess
-as-
us
ual
)
Our strategy must be built on the fact that many Kyotos are required
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BAU withoutSinks
BAU with Sinks
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
1990 1999 2010
Potential reductionsfrom BAU (5 to 20 Mt) [with incentives]
6% below 1990
Gap (6.5 Mt)
Incentives are needed to send the right signals
For the first commitment period,we know we can contribute
MT CO2e
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There is a strong role for agriculture in the Federal Plan for Mitigation ...
First steps- Building the Foundation on Solid Science
Increase awareness: Baseline study of awareness level and small programs to increase knowledge of agriculture’s role in climate change and GHG emission
Develop GHG mitigation & science programs: Shelterbelts, Biofuels, Model Farms, GHG Mitigation (soil, nutrients, livestock), Manure technology, Carbon measurement/verification
International: Win recognition of agricultural sinks in Kyoto Protocol
New Steps - To Realize the Potential
Develop emissions trading system: Agriculture has opportunity to participate in market for offsets (provides flexibility to firms in a DET system)
Develop climate friendly technology: Invest in promising areas such as ethanol from cellulose feedstocks, bioenergy, bioproducts
Encourage renewable biofuels: Expand use of ethanol and biodiesel in transportation with potential benefits for agricultural sector
Building core knowledge: Develop economically viable mitigation methods by investing in science and economic analysis
![Page 14: The Climate Change Challenge for Agriculture Presentation to the Kyoto Mechanisms Seminar March 14, 2003 by Dr. R. J. MacGregor Agriculture and Agri-Food.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070410/56649ebd5503460f94bc5e92/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
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… and the Federal Plan acknowledges the potential
Action Estimated result(2008-12)
• Business as Usual (BAU) sink 10 Mt/y
• Current programs
-AP2000, Greencover & APF 5.8 Mt/y• Next steps
- emissions reductions 1 Mt/y
- sinks 9 Mt/y
TOTAL 24.8 Mt/y
Counting everything in the National Inventory is only one challenge,
attribution for program delivery is another major issue
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The Federal Plan identifies offsets as the incent mechanism for the
agricultural sector• The sector indicated they preferred a market
mechanism to more traditional instruments
• We made the case and the “door is open” to developing an offset system that will work for agriculture domestically
• Getting Articles 3.4 in Kyoto was the key to unlocking this door
To be successful, offsets must make economic sense, as well as
environmental sense
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The sector will need to be involved in the design of a workable offset system - become
familiar with the issues ...• Offsets must be real
– They have to provide sinks or emission reductions that will be counted in the national inventory - IPCC rules will be important
• They must be measurable and verifiable– Science is the key and we have good start, but more required
(NCGAVS, model farms, GHGMP, CCFIA, BIOCAP etc.)
• Probably need to be project based – An entity will have to develop a plan to show they can provide real
offsets: ex ante review, ex post verification, certification
• They must be additional/surplus & occur in 2008-12
– Over and above “business as usual” in the commitment period– Need to be differentiated from other incentives or requirements– There is a policy against providing “credit for early action”– This is the “baseline” issue and critical to whole system and dealing
with continuum and saturation
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
… and there is more to a system...
• They must be calculated on a net-net basis
• “Leakage” will need to be accounted for
• The system must be affordable– Transaction costs must be kept low relative to the
value of the offsets - @ $10/t this may be a challenge
• The role of numerous players will need to be sorted out – producers, registry, government, auditors,
aggregators, futures/commodity markets, insurance industry etc.
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… and more issues of particular interest to agriculture
• Permanence and Liability are critical issues for the sector wrt. soil sinks
• At Calgary Credit Workshop agricultural participants did not support the transfer of the liability for emission reductions from covered sector to agricultural sector
• Problem is that building sinks depends not only on management choices - but also on the weather
• It may not prove economic to maintain them on a long term basis - producer wants flexibility also
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What are the next steps?
• Development of an Offset System within a DET/covenant world for Large Industrial Emitters (LIE)– options – rules– analysis– consultations
• Best guess - we will need to have pretty good idea on “if” and “how” an offset system would work by this fall!!!!!!
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Doubling of CO2
(2050 under business as usual)
But we also need to think about adaptation because we can’t move fast enough to
avoid some impacts• Expected changes
– Warmer temperatures, drier or wetter conditions, more extreme events
• Assess impacts & plan to manage risks.
– Build knowledge base, networks & planning systems.
– Assess impacts and adaptation strategies for key policiese.g. water infrastructure & drought management
– water supply & infrastructure– financial risk management – food safety, disease
management/eradication