The Atlas of Giving May 2011

may 2011 report

at lasofgiv ing.com • 877.414.0078 •

©2011 ATLAS of Giving™, 1.877.414.0078.This material is provided for the intended the ATLAS of GIVING™, Pat. Pend., member only. Distribution of this information without express written permission is prohibited. The ATLAS of Giving™ forecasts are provided for informational purposes only. ATLAS of Giving™ disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any warranties of application for a specific purpose. Forecasts are updated monthly. Current month forecasts represent a +/-4% margin of error, increasing as projection lead time increases.

may 2011 report

introduction

The 2011 charitable giving year is shaping up to be the ‘tale of 2 halves.’

The f i rs t hal f wi l l f in ish wi th a strong increase over 2010 giving. The second half forecast shows a progressive decl ine in the growth of monthly giv ing year end. This includes f in ishing with a four th quarter ‘ thud’ wi th resul ts that are worse than 2010’s last quarter.

2011 Charitable giving results have been strong for 5 months as compared with 2010. Year to date giv ing for 2011 is up 8.9% over 2010 for a total of $145.11 bi l l ion. May char i table giv ing was $29.36 bi l l ion, down 0.7% from March and a s igni f icant 11.1% over May 2010.

Currently 2011 is forecast to finish with a 5.4% increase over 2010.

The growth in g iv ing is projected to begin s lowing next month and continue to s l ide through year end. Most troublesome is that the Fourth Quarter is current ly projected to be down from the fourth quarter of 2010.

Several factors are contr ibut ing to the forecast of a s l ide in g iv ing growth toward year end. New inf lat ion real i t ies are put t ing l imitat ions on indiv idual discret ionary spending. Diminishing opt imism from U.S. of f ic ia ls about economic growth, def ic i t fears, l inger ing wor ld economic malaise, lack of improvement in employment and increasing elect ion campaign fund rais ing are putt ing pressure on the chari table giv ing economy.

Nonprofit professionals should seriously consider moving planned fundraising promotions, events, and appeals to earl ier calendar dates. The current forecast suggests that the giv ing environment wi l l cont inue to decl ine for each of the next twelve months. Hopeful ly, better news in the coming months wi l l create a br ighter forecast in the months ahead.

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may 2011 report

contents

results & trends page 4

Calendar Year to Date Resul ts & Trends – January through May

Month ly Resul ts & Trends – May 2011

3 Month Resul ts & Trends – March through May

6 Month Resul ts & Trends – December through May

12 Month Resul ts & Trends – June through May

forecast page 10

Calendar Year Forecast – January through December

Month ly Forecast – June 2011

3 Month Forecast – June through August

6 Month Forecast – June through November

12 Month Forecast – June through May

analysis page 16

model calculations page 19

contact us page 19

F rom t ime to t ime, repor ted economic var iab les a re rev i sed by the repor t ing ent i ty . I n cases where var iab les re la ted to The A TLA S of G iv ing™ data are rev i sed, ou r f igu res wi l l be updated to re f lect the most cu r rent repor ted data .



may 2011 report

2010 2011

$133.28 $145.11

CALENDAR YEAR TO DATE TREND ($ BILLIONS)

results & trends

calendar year to date results & trends • january through may

Year to date giv ing has increased 8.9% versus last year. Giv ing has been strong over the past few months.

Monthly Giving

($ Billions) 2010 2011

% Change YTD Versus Last Year

January $26.37 $28.51 8.1%

February $26.48 $28.80 8.8%

March $26.95 $28.88 7.2%

April $27.06 $29.56 9.2%

May $26.42 $29.36 11.1%

Total $133.28 $145.11 8.9%



may 2011 report

$29.56 $29.36

APRIL 2011 MAY 2011

VERSUS LAST MONTH ($ BILLIONS)

$26.42 $29.36

MAY 2010 MAY 2011

VERSUS SAME MONTH LAST YEAR ($ BILLIONS)

monthly results & trends • may 2011

Nat ionwide giv ing decreased 0.7% in May versus last month, for an approximate total of $29.36 bi l l ion contr ibuted to char i table organizat ions. May 2011 saw an increase of 11.1% over the same month last year.

Up 11.1%

Down 0.7%



may 2011 report

MARCH APRIL MAY

$26.95 $27.06 $26.42

$28.88 $29.56 $29.36

3 MONTH GIVING COMPARISON ($ BILLIONS) 2010 2011

2011MARCH

APRILMAY

$28.88

$29.56

$29.36

3 MONTH GIVING TREND ($ BILLIONS)

3 month results & trends • march through may

Cumulat ive g iv ing for the past 3 months has increased 9.2% over the same per iod last year.

Monthly Giving

($ Billions) 2010 2011

% Change Versus

Last Year

March $26.95 $28.88 7.2%

April $27.06 $29.56 9.2%

May $26.42 $29.36 11.1%

Total $80.43 $87.80 9.2%

Up 9.2%

results & trends



may 2011 report

DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY

$26.69 $26.37 $26.48

$26.95 $27.06 $26.42

$28.01 $28.51 $28.80 $28.88

$29.56 $29.36

6 MONTH GIVING TREND ($ BILLIONS) December 2009 to May 2010

December 2010 to May 2011

6 month results & trends • december through may

An increase in giv ing of 8.2% has been exper ienced dur ing the past 6 months as compared to the same per iod last year.

Monthly Giving

($ Billions)

December 2009 to

May 2010

December 2010 to

May 2011

% Change Versus Same Period Last

Year

December $26.69 $28.01 4.9%

January $26.37 $28.51 8.1%

February $26.48 $28.80 8.8%

March $26.95 $28.88 7.2%

April $27.06 $29.56 9.2%

May $26.42 $29.36 11.1%

Total $159.97 $173.12 8.2%

Up 8.2%

results & trends



may 2011 report

$314.46 $334.58

JUNE 2009 TO MAY 2010 JUNE 2010 TO MAY 2011

12 MONTHS CUMULATIVE GIVING ($ BILLIONS)

12 month results & trends • june through may

Giving has increased 6.4% in the past 12 months versus the same per iod the pr ior year – f rom $314.46 bi l l ion to $334.58 bi l l ion.

Monthly Giving

($ Billions)

June 2009 to

May 2010

June 2010 to

May 2011

% Change Versus Last

Year

June $24.81 $26.16 5.4%

July $25.43 $26.70 5.0%

August $25.64 $26.38 2.9%

September $25.79 $26.94 4.5%

October $26.18 $27.58 5.3%

November $26.64 $27.70 4.0%

December $26.69 $28.01 4.9%

January $26.37 $28.51 8.1%

February $26.48 $28.80 8.8%

March $26.95 $28.88 7.2%

April $27.06 $29.56 9.2%

May $26.42 $29.36 11.1%

Total $314.46 $334.58 6.4%

Up 6.4%

results & trends



may 2011 report

$24.81 $25.43 $25.64 $25.79

$26.18 $26.64 $26.69 $26.37 $26.48

$26.95 $27.06 $26.42

$26.16 $26.70 $26.38

$26.94 $27.58 $27.70 $28.01

$28.51 $28.80 $28.88 $29.56 $29.36

12 MONTH GIVING TREND ($ BILLIONS) June 2009 to May 2010

June 2010 to May 2011

12 month results & trends • june through may (continued)

The general t rend for g iv ing has increased in the past 12 months and is 6.4% higher than the pr ior year.

results & trends



may 2011 report

2010 2011

$322.75 $340.32

CALENDAR YEAR COMPARISON ($ BILLIONS)

forecast

calendar year forecast • january through december

The current forecast suggests that cumulat ive giv ing for the calendar year 2011 wi l l increase 5.4% versus 2010 to $340.32 Bi l l ion.

Monthly Giving

($ Billions) 2010 2011

2011 vs. 2010

January $26.37 $28.51 8.1%

February $26.48 $28.80 8.8%

March $26.95 $28.88 7.2%

April $27.06 $29.56 9.2%

May $26.42 $29.36 11.1%

June $26.16 $28.79 10.1%

July $26.70 $28.56 7.0%

August $26.38 $27.89 5.7%

September $26.94 $27.26 1.2%

October $27.58 $27.56 -0.1%

November $27.70 $27.72 0.1%

December $28.01 $27.43 -2.1%

Annual $322.75 $340.32 5.4%



may 2011 report

$29.36 $28.79

MAY 2011 JUNE 2011

VERSUS LAST MONTH ($ BILLIONS)

$26.16 $28.79

JUNE 2010 JUNE 2011

VERSUS SAME MONTH LAST YEAR ($ BILLIONS)

monthly forecast • june 2011

Nat ionwide giv ing is expected to decrease 1.9% in June versus last month, total ing $28.79 bi l l ion that wi l l be contr ibuted to char i table organizat ions. This represents an increase of 10.1% in June 2011 giving versus June 2010.

Up 10.1%

Down 1.9%



may 2011 report

JUNE JULY AUGUST

$26.16 $26.70 $26.38

$28.79 $28.56

$27.89

3 MONTH GIVING PROJECTION ($ BILLIONS) 2010 2011

2011JUNE

JULYAUGUST

$28.79 $28.56

$27.89

3 MONTH GIVING FORECAST ($ BILLIONS)

3 month forecast • june through august

The rate of g iv ing wi l l combine for a 7.6% cumulat ive increase dur ing the next three months as compared to the same per iod one year ago.

Monthly Giving

($ Billions) 2010 2011

% Change Versus

Same Period Last Year

June $26.16 $28.79 10.1%

July $26.70 $28.56 7.0%

August $26.38 $27.89 5.7%

Total $79.24 $85.24 7.6%

Up 7.6%

forecast



may 2011 report

JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER

$26.16 $26.70 $26.38

$26.94 $27.58 $27.70

$28.79 $28.56 $27.89

$27.26 $27.56 $27.72

6 MONTH GIVING TREND ($ BILLIONS) 2010 2011

6 month forecast • june through november

Giving in the 6 month per iod through November 2011 is forecast to reveal a 3.9% increase over the same period last year.

Monthly Giving

($ Billions) 2010 2011

% Change Versus

Same Period Last Year

June $26.16 $28.79 10.1%

July $26.70 $28.56 7.0%

August $26.38 $27.89 5.7%

September $26.94 $27.26 1.2%

October $27.58 $27.56 -0.1%

November $27.70 $27.72 0.1%

Total $161.46 $167.78 3.9%

Up 3.9%

forecast



may 2011 report

$334.58 $331.98

JUNE 2010 TO MAY 2011 JUNE 2011 TO MAY 2012

12 MONTHS CUMULATIVE GIVING ($ BILLIONS)

12 month forecast • june through may

Giving is projected to decrease 0.8% for the next 12 months versus the past 12 months.

Monthly Giving ($ Billions)



% Change Versus Last

Year

June $26.16 $28.79 10.1%

July $26.70 $28.56 7.0%

August $26.38 $27.89 5.7%

September $26.94 $27.26 1.2%

October $27.58 $27.56 -0.1%

November $27.70 $27.72 0.1%

December $28.01 $27.43 -2.1%

January $28.51 $27.20 -4.6%

February $28.80 $26.92 -6.5%

March $28.88 $27.31 -5.4%

April $29.56 $27.42 -7.2%

May $29.36 $27.92 -4.9%

Total $334.58 $331.98 -0.8%

Down 0.8%

forecast



may 2011 report

$26.16 $26.70

$26.38 $26.94

$27.58

$27.70

$28.01 $28.51

$28.80 $28.88 $29.56 $29.36

$28.79 $28.56

$27.89 $27.26

$27.56

$27.72

$27.43 $27.20

$26.92 $27.31 $27.42

$27.92

12 MONTH GIVING TREND ($ BILLIONS) June 2010 to May 2011


12 month forecast • june through may (cont inued)

Chart ing monthly act iv i ty for the past 12 months versus projected act iv i ty for the next 12 months shows an interest ing intersect ion of g iv ing.

forecast



may 2011 report

analysis May was a month of mixed char i table giving s igns… some up, some down, some f lat . The ATLAS of Giving current forecast suggests that May is the t ipping month for 2011. Through Apr i l , char i table giving tota ls were growing each month… May showed the f i rst month to month decl ine for the year. However, the May resul t s t i l l showed more than an 11% increase over May of 2010.

stock market

Stock values play a major role in the char i table giving economy. The market ’s sustained recovery sk id to a hal t in May. The Dow dropped 1.53% and the Standard & Poors fe l l 1.13%.

Year to date, the market is s t i l l up s igni f icant ly (Dow up 9.79%). This has dr iven much of the year to date char i table giv ing growth. Grant-making foundat ions, corporat ions, donor advised funds and individual investors have largely dr iven the char i table giv ing recovery. Interest ingly, the Fidel i ty Gi f t Fund announced that the 1st quarter of 2011 was the best in their h is tory for new contr ibut ions to their donor advised fund.

In addit ion to inst i tut ional funders, s tock values have a s igni f icant impact on planned giv ing and major g i f ts . Planned giving is most af fected in the real ized values of probated estates.



may 2011 report

the economy

The U.S. economy is growing… but at a painful ly s low pace. Economic factors are the greatest contr ibut ing elements to U.S. char i table giv ing. When the economy is growing, char i table giv ing grows. In May, economic factors showed a mixed result .

Consumer Confidence decl ined 8.5% in May. This is not good for char i table giv ing. Indiv iduals are less l ikely to make gi f ts when they don’t feel good about f inancial issues.

Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.8% in May. A r ise is good but th is r ise is anemic.

Unemployment was unchanged at 9.1%. Unemployment has a s igni f icant impact on char i table giv ing. People who aren’t work ing, aren’ t giv ing. The sustained high unemployment rate is hurt ing char i table giving resul ts.

The Housing Market is on l i fe support . The housing market has never been worse. We are not sure what impact th is is having on char i table giv ing yet . I f i t can be determined that individuals are spending less on housing, that might be good.

Corporate Spending is up s igni f icant ly. Great news for g iv ing. When companies have more to spend, they have more to give.



may 2011 report

other factors

Pol i t ical Campaign Fundrais ing is underway. Indiv idual contr ibut ions to pol i t ical campaigns have a negat ive impact on char i table giv ing. As pol i t ical fundrais ing act iv i t ies increase, more negat ive impact wi l l be fe l t in the char i table giving total .

Disasters have a mixed ef fect on char i table giv ing. The Jopl in tornado and the f looding of the Mississippi River have mot ivated on outpour ing of char i table giv ing support . Some of the gi f ts made are addi t ive to overal l char i table giv ing. However, many of the gi f ts made are gi f ts that would have otherwise gone to other non-disaster nonprof i ts and therefore have no net ef fect on overal l g iv ing. This phenomenon was most notably observed fol lowing 9/11.



may 2011 report

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$26.00

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$29.00

FORECAST MARGIN OF ERROR

model calculations Mathemat ical analysis of over 50 var iables and 40 years of comprehensive giv ing data was used to create the ATLAS of Giv ing™ model. Calculat ions correlate to overal l g iv ing in the U.S. at a rate of 99.5%. The margin of error for the model is +/- 4% in the current month. Margins of error for project ions increase with t ime as i l lustrated below.

contact us Members@Phi lanthromax.com

877.414.0078

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The Atlas of Giving May 2011

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Transcript of The Atlas of Giving May 2011