The Art and Science of Sales Forecasting: A Webinar for Sales Managers and Company Leaders

The Art and Science of Sales Forecasting:A Webinar for Sales Managers and

Company Leaders

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Please send questions using the online interface

Attendees muted upon entry

Webinar Notes

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Featured Speakers

Steve MartinAuthor, HBR Contributor & Thought Leader in Technology Sales

Brian McCarthyVice PresidentSalesBirst

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Agenda

Birst Overview of Sales Forecasting

The Art and Science of Sales Forecasting

Demo

Q&A

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Sales Forecasting overview

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Improving sales forecasting requires advanced analysis – across multitude of areas

Historical Ratesaverage win rates based on opportunity stage and

days into the quarter

Rep Performancehiring cohort, territory, ramped status, tenure,

etc.

Upsells customer satisfaction levels, product, sales

channel, etc.

Deal Characteristics

buyer activity, industry, compelling events,

movement, competitor, etc.

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... and data from multiple sources, analyzed over time and in context of different business roles

VP SalesSales Managers

Sales Reps

CFOVP Marketing

VP HR

VP of Services / SupportCustomer Success

Management / Rep Forecast

Booking per Product

Discounts Ratio to Deal Size

Compelling Events

Buyer Behavior

% of Quota Achieved

Deals Won vs. Competition

Birst Cloud BI and Analytics• White space analysis, upsell, … • Pipeline movement, velocity, …

• Rep performance on forecast, ….• Deal Scoring by buyer behavior, events, competition, …

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Steve W. Martin’s slides

www.stevewmartin.comSteve W. Martin Copyright 2015 May not be copied without written consent

About Steve W. Martin…

Sales Training

Win-Loss Analysisand Sales Effectiveness Consulting

Sales Performance Research

www.stevewmartin.com

Heavy Hitter Book Series


Sales Forecasting Challenges

Salesperson Company

MacroCustomer


Sales Cycle Complexity Forecasting Challenges

Lower Complexity

Higher Complexity

Point-Specific Sales

Platform Based Sales

Enterprise Sales

Forecasting Complexity

ForecastingForecastingFrom the SalespersonFrom the Salesperson

PerspectivePerspective


Sales Research

High Performing Salespeople Research

Forecasting Research


The Sales Process

Network Communications Company

Advertising Agency

Services Company Software Company


What is the Forecast? Sales Rep Perspective

Unqualified Prospect

Initial Communication

First Call

Develop Solution

Present Solution

Customer Evaluation

Present Proposal

Verbal Commitment

Negotiation

Contract Process

Signed Contracts

Sales Process Weighting Factor

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


Take the Test: Sandbaggers, Heavy Hitters, and Exaggerators

Which of these statements describes your forecasting philosophy best: A) I prefer to under-commit and then over deliver results

B) I constantly analyze my forecast and strive for perfection

C) I sometimes tend to be a little too optimistic

25%

56% 19%


Optimism Versus Pessimism



At the end of the past two quarters, my forecast was:

3/31 12/31 11% 8% Significantly lower than the actual revenue number 22% 15% Slightly lower than the actual revenue number 41% 44% Very close to the actual revenue number 22% 25% Slightly above the actual revenue number 4% 8% Significantly above the actual revenue number



26 - 50 Hours

50+ Hours

22%

8%

32%

38%11 – 25 Hours

1 – 10 Hours

How many hours do you spend calculating, revising, and confirming your forecast during the quarter?



0 20 40 60 80

Salespeople <75%

Salespeople 100%+

Salespeople <75%

Salespeople 100%+

Salespeople <75%

Salespeople 100%+

What describes your use of internal systems?

I am a power user who takes full advantage of my company’s

technology and internal systems

I am knowledgeable about my company’s internal systems and

use them frequently

I only use our company’s technology and internal systems

because I have to

Percentage of responses



Rate how accurate your revenue prediction is at these moments on a scale of 1 (low accuracy) to 5 (high accuracy)

Day 30 Day 60

Day 75 Day 90


Product Fit QuestionsStandard Business

Qualification QuestionsStandard Questions

About Selection Process

Formal and Intuitive Qualification

Product Fit QuestionsStandard Business

Qualification QuestionsStandard Questions

About Selection Process

SpecificationsFeatures & Functions

Business BenefitsROI

Information PresentedInformation Gathered Via

Formal Qualification

Triangulation TechniquesSalesperson IntuitionSales Cycle Patterns

Personal Relationshipsand Internal Coaches

Information UncoveredIntuitive Qualification

Biases & Favored VendorPersonal Agendas

Standing in AccountCompetitor’s Actions

What to do Next and What to Watch Out For

Techniques forIntuitive Qualification

The Logic of Selling

The Human Nature of Selling



My forecast is based upon ____% Logic and ___ % Intuition

20% Logic - 80% Intuition








100% Logic



How many years have you been in sales?

Over the course of my career, I estimate that I have made the quota I was assigned ___ % of time



Daily – all the time

Frequently – multiple times a week

Once in a while – once or twice a week

Infrequently - a few times every couple of weeks or

month


How often are you in contact with your sales manager?


Research: High Performing Salespeople

Most Important

Least Important

ForecastingForecastingFrom the Sales From the Sales ManagementManagementPerspectivePerspective


High Performing Sales Organization Research


Forecasting Types: Intra-Department Forecasting


Nonexistent

Well-documented (written)

Closely monitored

Informal

Strictly enforced


How Structured is Your Organization’s Sales Process?


Forecasting Type: Snapshot Forecasting


At your Organization, Salespeople are Consistently Measured Against their Quota and Held Accountable

Strongly agree

Neither agreenor disagree

Disagree

Strongly disagree

Agree



Forecasting Type: Inter-department


Deal Inspection: Measuring Account Control

Rapport

Low High

High

Low

Deal Information

Competitive

Competitive

Account Control

Blind


When the Purchase Decision is Actually Made

“The company that we were leaning toward at the beginning came out on top.”

“There was a company that I liked at the beginning and we were just not going to give it to them. So we went through the whole procedure making sure all the boxes were checked off by a panel of people.”

“Our favorite came through.”

“It was down to the wire, the other vendor had equally much experience and similar capability.”

“Based on a number of factors, yes, we had a favorite vendor going in and they won.”

“It became apparent quickly that it would be a two horse race.”

When did you realize what solution youWanted to buy?

Early in theSales cycle

In the middle of theSales cycle

At the end of theSales cycle

30% 25%

45%

Win-Loss Analysis Comments



When working on a new account, when are you likely to lose during the sales cycle?

Early in the sales cycle

Middle of the sales cycle

Near the end of the sales cycle



Win-Loss Research – Turning Point Recognition

Time Investment

Cust

om

er

Com

mit

ment

to

Solu

tion


Final Advice…

Salesperson

Too Nebulous Too Granular

Your Sales Process

Forecast Amnesty Win-Loss Analysis From the Customer’s Perspective…

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BirstSales Analytics

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Birst Offerings in Sales Analytics

• Sales Analytics Accelerator for Salesforce

– Pre-built data model, reports & dashboards

• Sales Forecasting Solution• Connectors

– Salesforce.com, Oracle CRM, Netsuite, SAP, Eloqua, Marketo, Google Analytics, and many more…

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Demo

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Learn more

• Learn more about Birst– www.birst.com

– Live Demo: www.birst.com/livedemo Every Tue/Thu at 11 AM PT

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Thanks

The Art and Science of Sales Forecasting: A Webinar for Sales Managers and Company Leaders

Software

Transcript of The Art and Science of Sales Forecasting: A Webinar for Sales Managers and Company Leaders