THE 5G OPPORTUNITY...create services and apps for the worst-case congestion conditions. The world...
Transcript of THE 5G OPPORTUNITY...create services and apps for the worst-case congestion conditions. The world...
THE 5G OPPORTUNITY
FEBRUARY 2019
Authors Kevin Fitchard Principal Analyst Francesco Rizzato Senior Technical Analyst Ian Fogg VP Analysis
Opensignal active userbase:
Opensignal is the independent global standard for analyzing consumer mobile
experience. Our industry reports are the definitive guide to understanding
the true experience consumers receive on wireless networks.
How 5G will solve the congestion problems of today's 4G networks
Total Devices
Total Measurements
Data Collection Period
94,071,939 585,738,011,995 Jan 1st – Dec 31st, 2018
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Key FindingsAcross 77 countries studied, 4G Download
Speeds are between 31.2 Mbps and 5.8 Mbps
faster at the best hour of day compared with
the slowest hour of the day
Congestion on current 4G networks is holding
back speeds highlighting the need for new 5G
capacity to relieve pressure. Opensignal’s* analysis
uncovers that during the optimal time of day —
usually when most users are asleep — networks
are capable of enabling a significantly faster
download experience than during awake hours.
Across the day, 42% of countries experienced
speed variation of two times or more
In the U.S., the best 4G Download Speeds were
1.9 times faster in the late hours of night — when
networks are quieter and most users are offline —
than during the day and evening leisure hours,
when networks most need to offer a great
experience for their users. India's best 4G
Download Speed was 3.9 times faster than the
speed experienced at the slowest time of day.
5G will add new capacities to help with these
wide time-of-day speed variations
5G won't just deliver faster speeds. 5G will
provide a blanket of capacity, built using new high-
bandwidth, high-frequency spectrum bands that
will help mitigate the daily cycle of congestion we
see on today's 4G networks. These 5G services
will support more simultaneous users at very fast
speeds.
Even the fastest 4G countries need 5G to
counter big drops in speeds at busy times
In the fastest two countries in Opensignal’s
analysis, South Korea and Singapore, users
experienced a speed gap of 13 Mbps between
fastest and slowest hours, despite the two highest
average 4G Download Speeds measured of 55.7
Mbps and 54.7 Mbps respectively.
The slowest time of day tends to be in the
evening, but varies between countries
While most countries experience the slowest
speeds in the evening, between 9 p.m. and 11
p.m., there were notable exceptions. For
smartphone users in Singapore and Norway
speeds slowed much earlier at 6 p.m. and in
the U.K. and the Netherlands the peak periods
were even earlier, 5 p.m. and 4 p.m.
respectively, overlapping the working day.
Cities see the greatest speed swings, indicating
daytime congestion 5G can relieve
Users in Paris experienced the greatest range
of 4G Download Speeds, fluctuating between
21.5 Mbps and 51.4 Mbps in a 24-hour period,
followed by Sydney and Santiago. Worryingly,
New York's fastest hour for 4G speed of 40.8
Mbps was in a virtual dead heat with the 40.6
Mbps Seoul’s inhabitants experience at their
slowest hour of the day. But Seoul’s slowest
hour of day is still faster than the fastest hour
of day in Taipei (38.2 Mbps), London (38.3
Mbps) and 21 other cities analyzed.
Tremendous speed volatility is untenable for
future mobile applications
To launch all the most demanding new
applications, such as augmented reality or
autonomous driving, operators and app
developers must be able to break free from
today’s limitations where they are forced to
create services and apps for the worst-case
congestion conditions. The world needs new
5G networks to offer increased capacity, and
more consistent speeds to sustain new
innovations
*As of late February 2019, the correct spelling of our company name is Opensignal. OpenSignal is the correct spelling for our app.
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17.4
19.9
21.622.1
21.6
20.4
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18.4
17.8
17.1
16.415.9
15.4 15.2 15.1 15.0 15.014.7
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nigh
t1am 2am 3am 4am 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am
10am
11am
Noo
n1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm 9pm
10pm
11pm
World 4G speeds vary tremendously across the day
showing the impact of congestion on daytime speeds
4G
Do
wn
load
Sp
eed
(M
bp
s)
Local time of day
3am: few users awake,
fastest 4G speed of 22.1
Mbps experienced
At 9pm, 4G speeds
experienced are slowest
at 11.9 Mbps
World 4G speeds vary tremendously across the day showing the impact of congestion on daytime speeds Chart 1
The 4G networks we enjoy today are light years beyond the 3G networks
that kicked off the mobile data revolution at the turn of the millennium,
but they have their faults. The biggest among them are inconsistency and
congestion.
Across the hours of the day, Opensignal’s analysis shows the enormous
extent to which 4G speeds drop when most people are awake, using their
smartphones and wanting a great mobile data experience. This fall in
speeds indicates the pressure from millions of simultaneous users with
which operators must cope.
By nature, cellular networks are shared networks. The more users there
are vying for connections, the more a network's capacity gets sliced and
diced among those users, which causes average speeds to fall. That
produces massive inconsistencies in connection speeds throughout the
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course of a day and ultimately can place severe restrictions on the type
of applications and services consumers can access.
Opensignal has looked at those speed disparities in 77 countries across
the world to show how big this problem truly is. We've also explored how
5G networks should be able to provide relief. 5G is usually touted
because of its speed, but more significantly 5G will provide a solid
foundation of capacity that will iron out the wild fluctuations we see in
4G speeds today.
4G is struggling to deliver a consistently good mobile experience 4G networks are very finicky creatures that can offer up different
capabilities depending on their current loads. At peak times of day,
demand for content and mobile capacity are greater, creating congestion
on the network. That causes the average speeds for all users to fall.
Conversely at non-peak times — often in the early hours of the morning
— there are fewer users competing for network resources, allowing
connections to open up, boosting speeds well beyond their normal levels.
Chart 2 provides a snapshot of the wide range of 4G Download Speeds
we see throughout the day in different countries across the globe. For
instance at the top of this chart we find South Korea, which had the
fastest 4G Download Speed of the 77 countries in our analysis. But South
Korea's average download of 47.1 Mbps isn't constant throughout the
day. Depending on the hour, average speed rises as high as 55.7 Mbps or
dips down to 40.8 Mbps. Even though there was a significant variation in
their speeds hour by hour, South Korea and Singapore were the only
countries where users averaged more than 40 Mbps at all times in our
measurements, meaning they were always able to provide fast, if not
consistent, connections.
The most extreme examples of hourly variation in speed were in Europe.
In Switzerland average 4G Download Speed yo-yoed between 29.2 Mbps
and 55.5 Mbps throughout the course of 24 hours in our measurements,
while in Belarus that range was even bigger, seesawing between 7.8
Mbps to 39.1 Mbps.
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Users experience a wide range of download speeds at different hours Chart 2
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As the mobile internet evolves, these fluctuations in speed will become
untenable. Consumers will expect the more consistent experience
promised by 5G's proponents. Future mobile apps and services won't just
demand fast speeds but will need consistent connections.
For instance, let's say a super-HD video or a 360-degree virtual-reality
stream requires a minimum of 25 Mbps to perform optimally. If an
operator has an average 4G Download Speed of 30 Mbps, you might
assume it has plenty of connection power to support that content. But if
in reality download speeds on that network fluctuate from 20 Mbps to
40 Mbps through the course of day — or across different locations — then
we have a situation where users can consume that content only at certain
times. What's worse, the times that content becomes unwatchable are
precisely the peak times when more users want to consume it.
5G will not only provide extremely fast speeds but also a solid bedrock of
capacity, to even out the consistency issues we are seeing with current
4G networks. As part of the 5G era, new high capacity and very high
frequency radio bands will be usable for the first time by mobile
technology, which will increase the networks’ ability to support more
simultaneous users and data at very high speeds.
Even the fastest countries have big swings in speed Across the hours of the day, Opensignal has analyzed the difference
between the time when smartphone users experience the fastest
download speed and the time when speeds are slowest. The difference
between the best and worst speeds indicates the speed a country’s
networks are able to deliver under both the most optimal and least
optimal conditions depending on time of day.
Countries with a wide range likely have greater congestion pressure on
their networks. Those countries with little difference between best and
worst speeds most likely have networks that are lightly loaded.
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6.2
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5.0
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Algeria
Cambodia
Belarus
India
Chile
Bahrain
Indonesia
Pakistan
Kazakhstan
Jordan
Philippines
Uruguay
Kuwait
Dominican Republic
Israel
Panama
Ireland
Poland
Guatemala
Malaysia
Tunisia
Peru
Côte d'Ivoire
Bolivia
France
Finland
Russian Federation
Morocco
Turkey
Argentina
Taiwan
Myanmar
Thailand
Switzerland
United States of America
Colombia
Sweden
Italy
Saudi Arabia
Denmark
Austria
United Kingdom
Brazil
Bangladesh
Nigeria
Mexico
Japan
Croatia
Egypt
Ukraine
Romania
Hong Kong
United Arab Emirates
Australia
Ecuador
Portugal
Oman
Sri Lanka
Spain
Costa Rica
Bulgaria
Germany
Hungary
Vietnam
Slovakia
Serbia
Lebanon
New Zealand
Qatar
Netherlands
South Africa
Norway
South Korea
Singapore
Greece
Canada
Czech Republic
4G Download Speed (Mbps)
t imes as fast when experienced at the fastest hour of day
Difference in 4G Download Speed experienced
between the fastest and the slowest hour of the day
Least speed range by
hour of day
Greatest speed range by
hour of day
Difference in 4G Download Speed experienced between the fastest and the slowest hour of the day Chart 3
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Canada, the Czech Republic, Greece, the Netherlands, New Zealand,
Norway, Qatar, Singapore, South Africa and South Korea all have little
variation in speed despite being at varying stages of 4G development.
This indicates a high degree of consistency in speed across the 4G
networks in these countries regardless of the hour. The Czech Republic
had the most consistent download experience of the 77 countries we
analyzed. 4G Download Speed fell only 3.3 Mbps in the Czech Republic
at the slowest time compared with an average speed of 33 Mbps
experienced by smartphone users.
Today's 4G networks are performing far from consistently When we rank our 77 countries by off-peak speeds, we see yet another
facet to the story. In Chart 4, the blue bars represent the 4G Download
Speeds during the hour when speeds are fastest, when most users are
offline, and there’s likely the least data demand in each country.
This fastest speed during the quietest time of day indicates the true
technical capabilities of a country's networks when unfettered by
congestion. South Korea was at the top of that list, followed by several
traditional 4G powerhouses: Switzerland, the Netherlands, Singapore,
Norway, Denmark and Australia. But all seven of those countries have
different average 4G Download Speeds across all hours of the day, as
shown in the gray bars.
Some countries were better than others when it comes to delivering the
full capacity of their networks to their customers on a consistent basis.
We've already pointed out that Switzerland lags behind its peers on this
front, but Denmark also demonstrates a huge gap between its best speed
and average speed. In contrast, Canada does an excellent job delivering
the full capabilities of its network from hour to hour. There was very little
difference between Canada's most optimized connections and its
average speed, putting it not only among the fastest countries in our
analysis but also the most consistent.
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Thailand
India
Nigeria
Algeria
Bangladesh
Indonesia
Philippines
Panama
Costa Rica
Côte d'Ivoire
Saudi Arabia
Malaysia
Hong Kong
Peru
Egypt
Argentina
Sri Lanka
Cambodia
Pakistan
Morocco
South Africa
Russian Federation
Dominican Republic
Guatemala
Vietnam
Bahrain
Colombia
Kuwait
Mexico
Brazil
United States of America
Jordan
Bolivia
Ukraine
Tunisia
Germany
Ecuador
Chile
Myanmar
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Slovakia
Poland
Greece
Lebanon
Oman
Italy
United Kingdom
Uruguay
Czech Republic
Turkey
Israel
Qatar
Romania
Japan
Spain
Taiwan
United Arab Emirates
Belarus
Ireland
Sweden
Austria
Croatia
Serbia
Bulgaria
Finland
France
Canada
New Zealand
Hungary
Australia
Denmark
Norway
Singapore
Netherlands
Switzerland
South Korea
Countries’ ranking by 4G Download Speed
experienced at fastest hour
4G Download Speed (Mbps)
Speed at fastest hour of the day Average speed
Countries’ ranking by 4G Download Speed experienced at fastest hour Chart 4
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At the opposite end of the spectrum is India. India has low average 4G
Download Speeds, but our analysis shows that its networks are a lot more
powerful than their average speeds would indicate. India's optimized
connection speed is more than twice as fast as its average connection
speed. The mobile competitive landscape on the subcontinent is quite
challenging at the moment. Competitive pricing pressure and cheap data
bundling have caused 4G use and mobile data consumption to skyrocket,
which is likely causing high levels of congestion on India's 4G networks
and explains the big gap we see between peak-hour and average speeds.
Ecuador is the Latin American country with the fastest speed at its busiest
time of day, though both Uruguay and Chile had faster top-line speeds
than Ecuador when their networks were uncongested. When it comes to
average speeds, though, Mexico (20.1 Mbps) and Brazil (18.6 Mbps) both
came out ahead of Uruguay (18.4 Mbps) and Chile (14.7 Mbps), showing
that even though their peaks are lower they're able to deliver a much
more consistent speed experience throughout the day. In fact, Chile is
the Latin American country with the greatest fluctuations in speed. 4G
Download Speed at quiet hours in Chile (32.7 Mbps) is up to 3.6 times
faster than at busy times (9.1 Mbps).
The U.S. will be an interesting bellwether of 5G's impact on congestion
and speed consistency because it sits smack dab in the middle rank of
countries for average 4G Download Speeds and in its range of speed
variation by time of day. In the U.S. the distribution of 4G speeds
throughout the day is neither particularly consistent nor particularly
inconsistent, yet it will be one of the first countries to widely adopt 5G
services. Any improvements we see in the U.S. mobile consumer
experience due to 5G, we'll likely see reflected in many other parts of the
world.
Evening is slowest time of day most likely because of entertainment usage We've discussed peak hours extensively, but these vary in different
regions of the world, as we can see in Chart 5. For the vast majority of
countries, the busiest hour — when demand is highest and speeds are
slowest — falls in the evening between 8 p.m. and 11 p.m., after the
business day concludes. In Japan, the networks get really hopping at
midday, most likely as everyone starts watching mobile video at
lunchtime.
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9.911.8
12.740.8
2.67.5
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10.813.313.413.413.7
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18.319.1
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15.316.4
17.921.4
22.122.522.6
29.232.7
20.413.5
38.541.4
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Bangladesh
Morocco
Uruguay
South Korea
Algeria
Pakistan
Bahrain
Malaysia
Chile
Côte d'Ivoire
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Hong Kong
Tunisia
Bolivia
Egypt
Ireland
Mexico
Turkey
Taiwan
France
Portugal
Lebanon
Spain
Greece
Canada
India
Indonesia
Thailand
Philippines
Belarus
Nigeria
Dominican Republic
Peru
Kuwait
Guatemala
Saudi Arabia
Russian Federation
Poland
Israel
Sri Lanka
Myanmar
South Africa
Ukraine
Italy
Finland
Sweden
Romania
United Arab Emirates
Croatia
Qatar
Serbia
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Denmark
Australia
New Zealand
Cambodia
Panama
Argentina
Colombia
United States of America
Brazil
Vietnam
Germany
Oman
Austria
Slovakia
Switzerland
Hungary
Ecuador
Costa Rica
Norway
Singapore
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Japan
Time of day when 4G Download Speeds experienced
are slowest
4G Download Speed (Mbps)
12pm
4pm
5pm
6pm
7pm
8pm
9pm
10pm
11pm
Time of day when 4G Download Speeds experienced are slowest Chart 5
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In the U.K. and the Netherlands, the most congested time comes far
earlier, around 4 and 5 p.m., just as the business day is coming to a close.
Smartphone owners are likely either still working, or using their phones
while commuting, and most students have returned from school.
Cities often experience the biggest speed swings of all Comparing select cities around the world shows enormous variation in
the speeds smartphone users experience. In Chart 6, Opensignal has
analyzed how major cities stack up in both average 4G Download Speeds
and the extent of variation in speed throughout the day.
It's clear that wild swings in speed are even more common at a city level
than they are nationally. In Paris, our analysis showed that 4G Download
Speed can climb as high as 51.4 Mbps one hour, but later in the day drop
to 21.5 Mbps. While Paris offered up the most extreme example, all of
the cities had big dips and spikes in their speeds over the course of a day.
Cities often have the latest 4G technologies deployed and so should
deliver the fastest speeds. And our measurements show they do, but only
in the late hours night, when most users aren't seeking a fast mobile
experience. During the day and evening, speeds drop dramatically,
highlighting the failure of current 4G networks to deliver a consistent
experience.
Many of the new 5G-only spectrum bands are ideally suited to cities —
such as mmWave — because of their short range and extremely high
capacities. In today's networks, typical bands held by an operator might
be 5 MHz or 10 MHz wide in the lower frequencies or 20 MHz or 40
MHz wide on higher-frequency bands where most 4G networks operate
today, but the new 5G bands will open up hundreds of megahertz of new
extremely high frequency spectrum for mobile broadband use, delivering
much greater capacity to minimize the effect of congestion.
Most operator 5G trials have been taking place in major cities because
operators know this is where they need to add capacity the most. So
analyzing where 4G speed variations are the greatest and networks are
most congested, provides an excellent indicator of the locations where
5G should be deployed to provide the greatest benefit and an improved
mobile network experience.
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15.6
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10.7
22.6
21.9
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13.9
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11.2
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13.8
40.5
19.3
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26.6
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23.0
48.1
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25.4
22.7
21.6
15.0
40.7
29.4
7.0
16.2
18.2
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4.1
16.9
11.7
11.8
23.0
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5.6
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34.4
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12.1
22.2
28.3
20.9
22.1
16.9
40.6
24.1
19.3
20.8
16.6
17.5
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33.4
21.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Bangkok
Johannesburg
Ho Chi M inh
Athens
Delhi
Ciudad de Mexico
Lima
Buenos Aires
Lisbon
Manila
Jakarta
Kuala Lumpur
Toronto
Moscow City
Brasilia
Bogota
Roma
Madrid
Istanbul
Tokyo
Yangon
Seoul
Berlin
Taipei
New York
Warsaw
London
Sant iago
Sydney
Paris
Cities will benefit even more from new 5G capacity because
usersexperience an even wider range of 4G speeds
4G Download Speed (Mbps)
4G Download Speed at slowest hour of day Average speed experienced 4G Download Speed at fastest hour of day
Greatest
speed range
Cities will benefit even more from new 5G capacity because users experience an even wider range of 4G speeds Chart 6
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Our Methodology
Opensignal measures the real-world experience of consumers on mobile networks as they go about their daily lives. We collect over 3 billion individual measurements every day from tens of
millions of smartphones worldwide. Our measurements are collected at
all hours of the day, every day of the year, under conditions of normal
usage, including inside buildings and outdoors, in cities and the
countryside, and everywhere in between. By analyzing on-device
measurements recorded in the places where subscribers actually live,
work and travel, we report on mobile network service the way users truly
experience it. We continually adapt our methodology to best represent
the changing experience of consumers on mobile networks and,
therefore, comparisons of the results to past reports should be
considered indicative only.
For every metric we’ve calculated statistical confidence intervals and
plotted them on all of the graphs. When confidence intervals overlap for
a certain metric, our measured results are too close to declare a winner
in a particular category. In those cases, we show a statistical draw. For
this reason, some metrics have multiple operator winners.
Confidence Intervals For every metric we calculate statistical confidence intervals indicated on
our graphs. When confidence intervals overlap, our measured results are
too close to declare a winner. In those cases, we show a statistical draw.
For this reason, some metrics have multiple operator winners.
In our bar graphs we represent confidence intervals as boundaries on
either sides of graph bars. In our supporting-metric charts we show
confidence intervals as +/- numerical values.
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Our Metrics4G Availability
4G Availability shows the proportion of time
Opensignal users with a 4G device have a 4G
connection. 4G Availability is not a measure of
coverage or the geographic extent of a network.
Video Experience
Video Experience quantifies the quality of mobile
video experienced by Opensignal users on real-
world video streams.
To calculate Video Experience, we directly
measure video streams from end-user devices,
using an ITU-based approach to quantify factors
such as load times, stalling and video resolution
over both an operator's 3G and 4G networks.
Video Experience for each operator is calculated
on a scale from 0 to 100.
4G Video Experience. This metric quantifies the
quality of mobile video for each operator on LTE
connections as experienced by Opensignal users
on real-world video streams.
3G Video Experience. This metric quantifies the
quality of mobile video for each operator on 3G
connections as experienced by Opensignal users
on real-world video streams.
Download Speed Experience
Download Speed Experience shows the average
download speed experienced by Opensignal
users across an operator’s 3G and 4G networks.
It factors in 3G and 4G download speeds along
with the the availability of each technology.
4G Download Speed. This metric shows the
average download speed for each operator on
LTE connections as measured by Opensignal
users.
3G Download Speed. This metric shows the
average download speed for each operator on
3G connections as measured by Opensignal
users.
Upload Speed Experience
Upload Speed Experience measures the average
upload speeds experienced by Opensignal users
across an operator’s 3G and 4G networks.
It factors in 3G and 4G upload speeds along with
the availability of each technology.
4G Upload Speed. This metric shows the average
upload speed for each operator on LTE
connections as measured by Opensignal users.
3G Upload Speed. This metric shows the average
upload speed for each operator on 3G
connections as measured by Opensignal users.
Latency Experience
Measured in milliseconds, latency refers to the
delay users experience as data makes a round trip
through the network.
Our Latency Experience metric is calculated as an
average of the individual 3G and 4G latency
measurements based on the proportion of time
Opensignal users spend connected to each
network type. A lower score in this metric is a
sign of a more responsive network.
4G Latency. This metric shows the average
latency for each operator on LTE connections as
measured by Opensignal users.
3G Latency. This metric shows the average
latency for each operator on 3G connections as
measured by Opensignal users.