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Transcript of The 4 th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 21-24 Feb, 2011 Yihong DUAN...
The 4th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, 21-24 Feb , 2011
Yihong DUAN
WGTMR
On the Review of the Work Development and Future Plan for Tropical Meteorology Research
Contents
1. Activities
2. Projects and publications
3. Plan for next two years
Activities: Workshops and conferences
The 2nd International workshop on TC landfall Processes (IWTCLP- )ⅡThe 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology
The 7th International workshop on Tropical cyclone (IWTC-VII)
The 2nd International workshop on TC landfall Processes (IWTCLP-Ⅱ)
Co-sponsors TMR, TCP, STI/CMA, 973 Project of
MOST/China, NSF/ChinaScientific Objective
to get better understanding of tropical cyclone landfalling processes and its mechanism and to improve landfall forecasting technique.
IWTCLP- (Cont’d)Ⅱ
Meeting Size 82 Participants (researchers and forecasters)
from 17 Countries and regions where affected by TC Landfall. Venue and Time
Shanghai, China in 19-23 Oct, 2009Meeting Co-Chair
Lianshou Chen Russell Elsberry
IWTCLP-Ⅱ(Cont’d)
Meeting Topics:
Observations and Field Program Track, Structure and Intensity Changes Near the
Coast Topographic and Land Surface Effect , Especially
on Rainfall Physical Processes and Energy Transfers During
the ET Process High Impact Weather Events Forecast Techniques and Early Warning Systems
for TC Landfall
Photo for the opening ceremony of IWTCLP II in Shanghai, China
Brief summary of IWTCLP II
• 65 papers related to landfall tropical cyclone rainfall, structure and intensity change, and terrain effect on tropical cyclone rainfall and P-PARC/TCS-08 were presented over the plenary meeting,
• The “Typhoon Landfalling Forecast Demonstration Project” was proposed. It aims to improve the typhoon forecast capabilities and to give better service towards Shanghai EXPO 2010. Finally, it was endorsed by WMO/CAS-15, in Korea in 2009.
The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology
Co-sponsors
TMR, FVR, TCP, NUIST, MOST and NSF/China
Scientific Objectives
To improve the understanding and forecast techniques of QPE/QPF and hydrological prediction with an emphasis on rainfall caused by tropical cyclones and monsoons
To bring the forecasters and researchers together to review the progress of research and forecast, to discuss and exchange research achievements and operational forecast needs
The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology (Cont’d)
Meeting Size 101 Participants (researchers and forecasters) from
22 Countries and RegionsVenue and Time
Nanjing, China from 18-22 Oct, 2010Meeting Co-Chairs
Lianshou Chen (CAMS/CMA,CHINA) Barbara Brown (NCAR,USA) Yihong Duan (NMC/CMA,CHINA) Chungu Lu (NSF, USA)
The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology (Cont’d)
Meeting Topics
High impact precipitation events, related to tropical Cyclones, monsoons and severe storms;
QPE and remote sensing observations;
Hydrologic prediction and coupled hydrology-atmosphere-land models;
Verification of QPF
Data assimilation for precipitation forecasting system;
Precipitation variability and climate change;
QPF
The 7th International workshop on Tropical cyclone (IWTC-VII)
Cosponsors TMR, TCP, Meteo France
Scientific Objective to examine current knowledge, forecasting and
research trends on tropical cyclones from an integrated global perspective and to report on these aspects and
to offer recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different regions.
IWTC-VII (Cont’d)
Meeting Size
128 Participants from 42 TC affected countries and regions
Meeting venue and Time
San Denis Island, La Reunion, France; 15-20 Nov, 2010
Meeting Chairs
Chris Velden (U. of Wisconsin, USA)
Jeff Kepert (BOM, Australia)
Groupe Photo for all IWTC-VII participants
San Denis Island, La Reunion, France; 15-20 Nov, 2010
IWTC-VII (Cont’d)
MAJOR TOPICS: Structure and Intensity Change, Formation and Extra-tropical Transition, TCs in Intraseasonal to Climate Time Scales, Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning Systems, Societal
Impacts
KEYNOTE LECTURES Surface Wind Structure and the Related Pressure-
Wind Relationship Probabilistic Forecasting and Applications for User Risk
Assessment QPE/QPF and Related Inland Flood
Modeling/Applications
IWTC-VII (Cont’d)
SPECIAL FOCUS PRESENTATIONS Targeted Observations for Tropical Cyclone Track
Forecasting Ocean Field Experiments (ITOP) and New Research
Findings THORPEX/TIGGE Applications to Tropical Cyclone
Motion and Forecasting IBTrACS Activities and Updates Overview and Operational Products Expected from HFIP Application of the Dvorak Technique and Resolving
Interagency Intensity Differences
PANEL DISCUSSION Future Research Directions for Tropical Cyclones and
Climate Change
Some accomplishments from IWTC VII
59 recommendations, included 12 high priority recommendations for future WMO activities, forecaster needs, and research opportunities.
A new summary statement of Tropical cyclone and climate change was issued for WMO and NMHSs use during the workshop
IWTC VII final report will be on the WWRP website in Feb 2011.
Monsoon Data Centers
• Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets (Colorado State University-CSU, Prof. Richard Johnson)
• Data Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Asia (East Asia Monsoon Activity Center - EAMAC Dr. Song Lianchun)
• Monsoon Radar Meteorology Data Information Center (Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center/Nagoya University Japan, Prof. Hiroshi Uyeda)
Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets
• The project website is at http://johnson.atmos.colostate.edu/wwrp_monsoon/.
• the following field campaigns are included on this website: ATEX, BOMEX, GATE, WMONEX, ASTEX, TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, SALLJEX, NAME, NAMMA, and TiMREX
• The upper-air sounding datasets for TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, NAME and TiMREX have undergone numerous checks and corrections to enhance their quality.
Data Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Asia( CEEMA)
• In 2010 the Center for Extreme (Weather and Climate)
Events Monitoring in Asia (CEEMA) was established by
the East Asian Monsoon Activity Center
A website for CEEMA has been established at
http://bcc.cma.gov.cn/Website/index.php?ChannelID=28&show_product=1
An initial Objective Identification Technique for Regional
Extreme Weather and Climate Events (OITREE) has
been developed and applied in China.
Frequency variations of drought events during 1957-2009 in China based on the OITREE method
the affected area with intensity distribution of the 2009/2010 Southwest China drought event based on the OITREE method
WGTMR Relevant Field Program
T-PARC/TCS 08
ITOP/TCS 10
YOTC
SWICE
PREDICT
GRIP
IFEX
HFIP
CEATIC
Western North PacificDittoDittoSouth Indian OceanNorth AtlanticNorth AtlanticNorth AtlanticNorth AtlanticEast and South China
Sea
Intense Intense observation observation areaarea
Intense Intense observation observation areaarea
China Experiment on Abnormal Typhoon In Coastal Area (CEATIC)
Wind profiler
Wind tower
GPS Sounding
Buoy station
Wind profiler
Microwave radiometer
Wind profiler with RUSS
Raindrops spectrometer
CEATIC
TC
Name Molave
Goni
Morakot
Koppu
CEATIC Target TC in 2009
Wind profile for TC Molave 2009 Wind profile for TC Molave 2009
Buoy station Observation for TC Molave 2009 Buoy station Observation for TC Molave 2009
Max. SST decrease 6℃
pressure
Effective wave heights
Wind
Effective wave high cycle
Projects and Publications
• Progress of FDP/RDP Project
• Publications
WWRP/TCP Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP)
Objective• To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting techniques for landfalling typhoons.
Action Taken • Training Workshop organized in May 2010 (Shanghai)• Real-time collection/display systems of forecast products developed• Real time verification system set-up
Planned Action • To open the project website (http://tlfdp.typhoon.gov.cn)• To provide real-time products to all TC Members • To develop a total verification system
Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa
• Training Workshop on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast, 24-28 May, Shanghai
Progresses of Progresses of TLFDP
11 lecturers from 9 institutionsTrainees: 20 forecasters from meteorological bureaus of East China Region
List of forecast products collected in real time and the way of collection
Yellow: GTS. Red: FTP. Green: FTP + CMA Intranet. Blue: CMA Intranet.Typhoon Forecast
Products ProviderTrack Intensity Wind Radii 2-D Gridded
Surface wind2-D Gridded Precipitation
3-D Gridded Model Output
Official forecast
NMC/CMA √ √ √( Analyses)
RSMC Tokyo √ √ √( Analyses)
HKO √ √NTC/KMA √ √JTWC √ √ √
Global model
NMC/CMA √ √ √ √ √RSMC Tokyo √ √ √ √ √ECMWF √ √ √
Regional model
NTC/KMA (unavailable yet)STI_GRAPES √ √ √ √ √GZ Regional model √ √ √ √STI_WARMS √ √ √
Ensemble prediction
Participants of TIGGE TC EPRDP
√ √
Concensus prediction
STI_CONS_OFFICIAL √STI_CONS_MODEL √
Statistical prediction
NHC_Wind Probability √STI_TCSP √STI_SIZE √STI_ANALOG √(stations)HK_QMORPH √
Courtesy of Dr Hui YU
Real time verification systemReal time verification system(Track forecast verificaiton)(Track forecast verificaiton)
Courtesy of Dr Hui YU
Real time verification systemReal time verification system(Intensity forecast verificaiton)(Intensity forecast verificaiton)
Courtesy of Dr Hui YU
WWRP/TCP NW-Pacific TC Track Ensemble Forecast Research Project
(THORPEX-Asia)Objective• To examine the utility of ensemble forecasts for the operational typhoon forecasting.
Action Taken • Website was established at JMA/MRI• ID&PW provided to Typhoon Committee Members• First improvement made to the Website
Planned Action • Training for better utilization of the products• Survey of the utility and further improvement of the products
Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa
Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa
Publications • Meeting report of the IWM-IV held in Beijing October 20-
25, 2008 in title of “BRIDGING WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN RESEARCH AND FORECAST OF GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEM” will be published by BAMS in March 2011
• “Tropical cyclone and Climate Change”, published in NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Feb 2010, Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones
• A book of 《 Global Perspectives on tropical cyclone: From Science to Mitigation 》 (From IWTC VI Edited by Johnny Chan, The Meeting Chair, published in 2010)
• A book of 《 The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast》, 2nd Edition (From IWM-IV, Edited by C.P. Chang, the Meeting Chair; will be published soon)
Preprint of Workshop and Conference
Other support to WMO NHMs
• A web version of “ A Global Tropical Cyclone Forecast Guide” is nearing completion
• A WMO website has been established for seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity
Plan for next two years (2011-2012)
• Implementation of Typhoon Landfall FDP (with TCP)• Implementation of NW Pacific Ensemble Forecast Project
(with TCP, THORPEX)• TMR WG meeting (Oct 2011, China) • Workshop on Monsoon Heavy Rainfall RDP (Oct 2011,
China)• Monsoon Training Workshop on Heavy Precipitation (Oct
2011, China)• IWM-V (2012, Malaysia) • International Workshop on Dvorak Technique (with TCP,
Apr 2011, Honolulu, US)
Thank you for your attention
CAS Strategic Thrust II • to advance scientific research and application as
well as development and implementation of technology, and specifically:
• II.3 -- Enhanced capabilities of NMHSs to produce better predictions and warnings;
• II.4 --Enhanced capabilities to use weather observations; and
• II.5 -- Enhanced capabilities to draw benefits from the global research capacity.