Proposal for aWWRP

High Impact Weather Project

Sarah Jones, Brian Golding

Philippe Arbogast, Ana Barros, Aida Diongue, Beth Ebert,Grant Elliott, Pat Harr, Tim Hewson, Julia Keller, Stefan Klink,

Sharan Majumdar, Rebecca Morss, Pierre Pellerin, David Richardson, Peter Steinle, Jenny Sun, Richard Swinbank,

Zoltan Toth, Jian Jie Wang, Heini Wernli, Hui Yu

THORPEX ICSC 1115 - 17 July 2013

Development of Proposal for a 5-10 year WWRP High Impact Weather Project

• Potential need for THORPEX Legacy project on High Impact Weather identified at ICSC10• North American Town Hall at AMS Annual Meeting (Jan 2013)• International workshop to define scope & objectives (March 2013)• Appointment of task team (May 2013)• Task Team Telecons to agree on structure and objectives (Mid-June 2013)• Draft of proposal to WMO for ICSC/JSC (July 2013)• Discussion at ICSC / JSC; Agreement on way forward• Revise proposal for submission to CAS in November

The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to:“Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications”

Mission of Project

Builds on THORPEX – what is new?• Focus and scope of project defined by needs of a limited number of specific weather-related applications• Probabilistic predictions at scales relevant to hazards: focus on small time and space scales whilst maintaining relevance of larger / longer scales•Exploit opportunities from coupled high resolution models and develop new observing strategies

Scope and limits of project defined by a limited set of weather – related applications

Scope of Project

Scope of Project

Scope of Project

Research Theme: Predictability and Processes

Predict-ability & Processes

Analysis of processes

Observations

Diagnosis of model errors

Improve understanding of factors determining predictability during High Impact Weather events

Research Theme: Multi-scale Prediction

Enhance multi-scale prediction of variables needed to forecast weather impacts

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Coupled Systems

Minutes to weeks

Local to Global

Research Theme: Vulnerability and Risk

Produce more relevant forecasts and warnings

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Assess impact of hazard on individuals, communities

and businesses

Learn about their vulnerability

Quantify risk arising from

hazard

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Research Theme: Evaluation

Identify deficits in / grow trust in forecasts and warnings

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Rigorous evaluation of forecasts & warnings of hazards and their

impacts

Define how to measure benefits

of research

Eval-uation

Research Theme: Communication

Achieve more effective responses

Predict-ability & Processes

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Eval-uation

Improve formulation andcommunication

of forecasts & warnings

Communication

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Joint activities of research topics to realise benefits of the research

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Applications in the forecasting process

Applications in the forecasting process

Seamless from nowcasting to short-range NWP

Automation

Interpretation

Assessment of impacts

Communication

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Design of observing strategiesApplications in the forecasting process

Design of observing strategies Opportunities from sophisticated high resolution observations

Assessment of local vs. global

Impacts and responses

Quality control

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process

Uncertainty Understanding

Predicting

Evaluating

Communicating

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Field campaigns & demonstrationsUncertainty

Design of observing strategiesApplications in the forecasting process

Field campaigns and demonstration projectsUtilise data from previous campaigns

Exploit planned activities: Lake Victoria RDP / FDP

T-NAWDEX

Link to TIGGE-LAM

Involve End Users

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process

Knowledge Transfer Between scientific disciplines

Between research and operations

Internationally

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

VerificationKnowledge Transfer

Field campaigns & demonstrationsUncertainty

Design of observing strategiesApplications in the forecasting process

Verification Linking process understanding, model development, evaluation

Cross-cutting activities

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Impact Forecasting Verification

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process

Impact forecasting Focussing research activities on advances needed to forecast the

impacts

Transfer of Results

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Impact Forecasting Verification

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process

Transfer results and benefits of research back to receptors in an adequate manner

External Engagement

• To-date: knowledge of user requirements present in task team • During further development of implementation plan: Engage with national / international bodies that already engage with users• During project: meet with end users at variety of levels to define user needs and transfer results

Strategies to achieve goals• Engage researchers from operational and academic centres; encourage development of research proposals•Develop linkages with other initiatives –International bodies and activities, WWRP Working groups, national initiatives, Post-Hyogo activities on disaster risk reduction

• Engage communication of scientists with different backgrounds through workshops, conferences etc.• Establish and exploit special research datasets• Support research and demonstration projects• Link to S2S and PPP

Recommendations of ICSC-11Further develop proposal for CAS considering the following: •better define the scope and focus based on a number of prototype applications that engage developing countries• better describe the added value of the project compared to what will be done anyway at NMHSs• further emphasize the project focus on the first few days whilst maintaining the relevance of longer time scales. •recognise increasing global urbanisation, the associated vulnerabilities and importance of “urban” weather •further develop the rationale/motivation for the project •link to WCRP through HIW in a changing climate •Link to important planned projects e.g. nocturnal convection in N. America and associated flash flooding clarify the relationships with other related WMO groups.

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Impact Forecasting Verification

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process

WWRP High Impact Weather Project

The overall objective of the High Impact Weather project is to:“Promote cooperative international research to achieve a dramatic increase in resilience to high impact weather, worldwide, through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications”

Mission of Project

Task Team MembersChair: Sarah Jones (DWD, Germany) WMO Consultant: Brian Golding (UKMO, UK)

Philippe Arbogast (MeteoFrance, Predictability) Ana Barros (USA, Hydrology)Aida Diongue (Senegal, African Regional Committee) Beth Ebert (BoM, Australia, Verification WG)Grant Elliott (Australia, BoM, Forecaster / User Perspective)Pat Harr (Naval Postgraduate School, USA, PDP WG)Tim Hewson (UKMO, UK, Forecasting process)Julia Keller (DWD, Germany, Ensembles / TIGGE)Stefan Klink (DWD, Germany, EUMETNET Obs Programme, Observations)Sharan Majumdar (RSMAS, University of Miami, USA, Data Assimilation)Rebecca Morss (NCAR, USA, SERA) Pierre Pellerin (Environment Canada, coupled modelling) David Richardson (ECMWF, GIFS-TIGGE)Peter Steinle (Australia BOM, WWRP / Mesoscale WG)Jenny Sun (NCAR, WWRP/ Nowcasting WG)Richard Swinbank (UKMO, GIFS-TIGGE)Zoltan Toth (NOAA, USA, Data Assimilation / Multi-scale modelling)Jian Jie Wang (China, WWRP/ Nowcasting Research WG) Heini Wernli (ETH Zürich, Switzerland, PDP WG) Hui Yu (CMA/Shanghai Typhoon Center; WWRP/ Mesoscale WG) Link to CBS/SWFDP: Ken Mylne (UKMO)Links to PPP and S2S: Co-chairs of Projects

Vulner-ability &

Risk

Multi-scale

Forecasts

Eval-uation

Communication

Predict-ability & Processes

Impact Forecasting Verification

Knowledge TransferField campaigns & demonstrations

UncertaintyDesign of observing strategies

Applications in the forecasting process