The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context
-
Upload
the-texas-network -
Category
News & Politics
-
view
1.711 -
download
3
description
Transcript of The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context
![Page 1: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D
A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and
Long-Term Context
1
David P. Brown, Ph.D. Regional Climate Services Director
NOAA Southern Region March 9, 2012
![Page 2: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• What has the 2011-2012 drought looked like?
• Why did the drought happen?
• Was it a climate change event?
• (Some) recent good news
Overview
![Page 3: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• What has the 2011-2012 drought looked like?
• Why did the drought happen?
• Was it a climate change event?
• (Some) recent good news
Overview
![Page 4: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
In addition to record dryness,
there was also record heat
![Page 20: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• Driest 12-month period ever
– October 1, 2010 thru September 30, 2011
– 2011 was driest calendar year ever (in 117 years)
• Hottest summer ever (in 117 years)
– June-July-August all hottest ever (in 117 years)
• Agricultural losses ~ $6 billion
• Acres burned due to wildfire ~ 4 million
• Mandatory/voluntary water restrictions ~ 1000
What has the drought looked like?
![Page 24: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• What has the 2011-2012 drought looked like?
• Why did the drought happen?
• Was it a climate change event?
• (Some) recent good news
Overview
![Page 25: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
1. Winter season La Niña
Why did the drought happen?
![Page 26: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
1. Winter season La Niña
As John Nielsen-Gammon likes to say:
El Nino = EL = Extra Liquid
La Nina = LA = Less Agua
for the Southern U.S.
Why did the drought happen?
![Page 27: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Strong
El Nino
Weak or
Neutral
Strong
La Nina
Figure courtesy of NOAA/ESRL
![Page 30: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
1. Winter season La Niña
2. “Missed” spring storms
Why did the drought happen?
![Page 31: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
1. Winter season La Niña
2. “Missed” spring rainfall
3. Summer heat
Why did the drought happen?
![Page 34: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Figure courtesy of Texas A&M
![Page 35: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
Why did the drought happen?
• How 2011 summer heat affected the drought
– Dry soil due to low winter/spring precipitation
– Very little evaporation
– Fewer thunderstorms
– Drier soil
• And
– Very little evaporation less atmospheric cooling hotter temperatures more evaporation of what little water is left greater water stress/demand
• Dryness added ± 4-6 degrees F to summer heat
![Page 36: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
1. Winter season La Niña
2. “Missed” spring rainfall
3. Summer heat
4. Lack of tropical activity
Why did the drought happen?
![Page 37: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Figure courtesy of Weather Underground
![Page 38: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• What has the 2011-2012 drought looked like?
• Why did the drought happen?
• Was it a climate change event?
• (Some) recent good news
Overview
![Page 39: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Figure courtesy of SCIPP
![Page 40: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Figure courtesy of Texas A&M
![Page 41: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Figure courtesy of SCIPP
![Page 42: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
Was it a climate change event?
• Temperatures going up (since mid-1970s)
• Precipitation changes uncertain
• Easier to “cross the threshold” into drought
– Higher temperatures more evaporation
• Future droughts likely hotter and drier
![Page 43: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
• What has the 2011-2012 drought looked like?
• Why did the drought happen?
• Was it a climate change event?
• (Some) recent good news
Overview
![Page 44: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
![Page 45: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
![Page 47: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
![Page 48: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
![Page 49: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Some improvement, but much more relief still needed
![Page 51: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
![Page 52: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
![Page 53: The 2011-2012 Texas Drought: Short-Term Extremes and Long-Term Context](https://reader034.fdocuments.in/reader034/viewer/2022051818/54b8100a4a79593a1e8b4671/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E
N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D
A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N
Acknowledgements:
John Nielsen-Gammon (Texas A&M) Victor Murphy (NOAA NWS)
53
David P. Brown [email protected]