The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation - Ten Years Later Gary Mauser, Ph D ANZSOC Conference...
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The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation - Ten Years Later
Gary Mauser, Ph D
ANZSOC Conference
Wellington, NZ
February 2005
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Gary Mauser Professor
Institute for Canadian Urban Research StudiesSimon Fraser University
Burnaby, BCCanada
February 2005
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ANZSOC 2005
Canada has long had strict firearms law
• 1880s - firearm permit required
• 1920s - anti-Bolshevick law
• 1934 - handguns registered
• 1967 - modern framework for law
• 1977 - FAC• 1991 - Kim Campbell• 1995 - Allan Rock
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ANZSOC 2005
The 1991 Canadian Firearms Legislation(1991 through 1994)
• Registration/ban of semi-automatic military-style rifles, and high-capacity magazines,
• Increased FAC requirements: • - firearm safety course,• - 35-question application form,• - passport-type photograph• - two references (spouse required)• - mandatory 28-day waiting period
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ANZSOC 2005
In 1994 Canada Consulted with New Zealand
• The Canadians were advised that firearms registration – would be exceptionally difficult to achieve
• - with an acceptable error rate• - at an acceptable cost• - The results probably not worth the effort
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ANZSOC 2005
The 1995 Canadian Firearms Legislation(1995 through 2003)
• Prohibition of over half of all registered handguns
• Stricter regulations
• Broadened police powers
• July 1998 - Registration of firearms begun
• January 2000 – Licensing of firearm owners begun
• January 1, 2001 – All firearm owners required to be licensed
• July 1, 2003 – All firearms required to be registered
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ANZSOC 2005
Criteria for evaluation
• Reasonable cost
• Acceptable error rate
• High level of compliance
• Public support
• Effective in improving public safety
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ANZSOC 2005
Cost estimates of owner licencing and universal firearm registration
• Original estimate in 1995 $C 2 million
• AG partial estimate (DOJ) $C 1 billion
• To date for all agencies $C 2 billion
• Original estimate off by a factor of 1,000
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ANZSOC 2005
Organizational problems
• Failure to understand project scope• Failure to plan for inter-agency cooperation• Information criteria differ across agencies• Some participants opposed to firearm ownership
in principle• Failure to consult with owners, provinces, or
Natives• Government cover-up of costs
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ANZSOC 2005
Data quality of firearm registry
• Over 5 million of the 7 million registered firearms are un-verified
• Error rate between 50% and 90%– Errors in description of firearm or owner
• Few criminal record checks of owners • No information on location of registered rifles or
shotguns• No information on more than 170,000 people with
firearm prohibition orders
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ANZSOC 2005
Police do not trust the registry
• RCMP told Auditor General they do not trust the information (2004)
• Toronto Police Chief reports (2003) the system has not helped solve a single homicide
• Police Association of Ontario said they fail to get information requested 95% of the time (2002)
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ANZSOC 2005
Public support for the firearm registry
• 77% of Canadian public agree that “the firearm registry should be scrapped.”– (JMCK Polling, N= 1,586, April 2004)
• 8 out of 10 provinces declined to cooperate with federal government in registry (2003)
• 6 out of 10 Provinces challenged the constitutionality of Firearms Act (2000)
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ANZSOC 2005
Owner cooperation
CFC actual
CFC estimate
Mauser estimate
DOJ estimate (1995)
Firearm owners 2 M 2.2 M 3.5 - 4.5 M
7 + M
Firearms 7 M 7.7 M 12 - 13 M
25 + M
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ANZSOC 2005
Participation rates
• Approximately 50% of firearm owners have complied
• Less than 25% of residents of First Nations communities have complied
• Approximately 50% of firearms stock is registered
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Evaluation
Do licencing and registration improve public safety?
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ANZSOC 2005
Which measures are the most appropriate?
• Gun deaths
• Gun crime
• Gun violence
• Total violent crime
• Total homicide
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ANZSOC 2005
How measure public safety?
• Gun death?
– Gun deaths are falling in Canada– Gun homicides falling– Gun suicides falling
• Is it a success?
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ANZSOC 2005
Trends in Canadian Gun Deaths
Gun Homicide Gun Suicide Total
1991 271 1,108 1,379
1995 176 916 1,092
1998 151 818 969
2001 171 651 822
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ANZSOC 2005
Canadian Suicide Trends
Firearm Suicides
Hanging Suicides
Total Suicides
1991 1,108 1,034 3,593
1995 916 1,382 3,968
1998 818 1,434 3,698
2001 651 1,509 3,688
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ANZSOC 2005
Gun Death is a Red Herring
• Gun deaths are largely suicides• Suicide is not central to public safety
• Strong substitution effect• The removal of firearms or sharps must balance
liberty with personal safety
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ANZSOC 2005
Trends in Canadian Suicide Rates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: Statistics Canada, Catalogue 84F0209XPB
Rates per 100,000 population
Total Hanging Firearm
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ANZSOC 2005
Trends in Suicide Rates in Australia
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Standardized Rates per 100,000
FirearmsHangingTotal
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ANZSOC 2005
Social costs of the decline in gun ownership
• Hunters are the driving force behind conservation • Hunters pay $70 million annually in licence fees• Hunters donate $33 million annually for habitat
and conservation projects• Hunters spend almost half ($2.7 billion) on all
expenditures on wildlife related activities• Increased number of wildlife-vehicle collisions
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ANZSOC 2005
How measure public safety?
• Gun crime?
• 47% of gun crime is permit violations• Not a measure of violence, but regulatory
enforcement
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ANZSOC 2005
Gun Crime in Canada, 2003
Number PercentageIllegal possession 10,037 47%
Other offensive weapon charge
4,510 21%
Robbery with firearm 3,877 18%
Firearm usage 2,256 11%
Homicide with firearm 161 1%
Discharge with intent 223 1%
Trafficking 137 1%
Total crimes with firearms 21,201 100%
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ANZSOC 2005
How measure public safety?
• Gun violence?
• Gun violence is small fraction of violent crime
• Not even the worst violence
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ANZSOC 2005
Gun violence and violent crime
Violent crime
Homicide Robbery
Australia 1% 14% 6%
England and Wales
1% 9% 4%
Canada 2% 31% 14%
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ANZSOC 2005
Injuries caused by weapons during assault, Canada 2003
Firearm Knife Club
Major physical injuries 6% 11% 14%
Minor physical injuries 40% 40% 60%
No injuries 52% 47% 24%
Unknown 2% 2% 2%
Number of incidents 812 5,760 5,432
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ANZSOC 2005
How measure public safety?
• Gun homicide?
• Gun homicides are only a fraction of total homicides
• Can reducing gun homicides reduce total homicide?
• Substitution effect is quite powerful
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ANZSOC 2005
Homicide trends in Canada
1996 1998 2000 2002 2003
Homicide rate 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.7
% Firearm 33% 27% 34% 26% 29%
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ANZSOC 2005
Homicide trends in Australia
1996 1998 2000 2002 2003
Homicide rate 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6
% Firearm 33% 17% 19% 13% 13%
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ANZSOC 2005
How should we measure improvements in public safety?
• Violent crime rates should drop
• Not just criminal violence involving guns, but all criminal violence should fall
• Homicide rates should fall
• Not just gun homicide, but total homicide
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ANZSOC 2005
More appropriate measures of public safety
• Homicide rate
• Robbery rate
• Armed robbery rate
• Violent crime rate
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ANZSOC 2005
Homicide Trends in Canada and USA
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
19901991 19921993 19941995 19961997 19981999 20002001 20022003
Source: Statistics Canada and FBI
Canadian Rate per 100,000 pop
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
USA Rate per 100,000 pop
CDNUS
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ANZSOC 2005
Gang Related Homicides in Canada
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Source: Statistics Canada
Percent Gang Homicides
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Homicides per 100,000 pop
% gang relatedTotal homicide rate
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ANZSOC 2005
Violent Crime Trends in Canada and USA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Source: Statistics Canada and the FBI
Offence rate per 100,000 population
CDNUS
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ANZSOC 2005
Trends in Armed Robbery in Australia
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003
Armed Robberies6256 9054 10850 9452 9474 7817 7162
% Firearm
25% 24% 18% 15% 14% 15% 16%
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ANZSOC 2005
Violent Crime Trends in Australia and USA
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1993 1995 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Sources: ABS 4510.0, FBI Crime Statistics
Offences per 100,000 population
AustraliaUnited States
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ANZSOC 2005
Summary and Conclusion
• The 1995 Firearms Act is not a success– Incomplete coverage– Unacceptably high error rate– No evidence for effectiveness
• Firearms registry cost $2 billion -- other public safety measures under funded
• The registry has reduced firearms access but has not improved public safety
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ANZSOC 2005
Suggested alternatives
• Improve monitoring of criminals on probation and parole
• Increase prison time for violent criminals
• Increase port security
• Increase number of police officers
• Tighten controls on deportation orders