Thailand – GDP 4Q2013

7/27/2019 Thailand GDP 4Q2013

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4/2556 2557

(GDP) 4 2556 2557

4 2556

2556 (GDP)

0.6 2556 0.6 0.7 1.7 25562.9

2.7 (1) 4.52555 42.02555 (2)

11.3 13.1 15.3 2555 4.7 13.2 (3)( ) 0.9 2555

55,884. 1.0 ( 1.7) ( 11.8) (8.9) ( 5.9) ( 25.0) ( 22.9) ( 37.2) ( 1.2) 52,036 . 7.6 2.0 3.5


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2 2.3

1.8 4.8 5.4

7.1 10.7 2.93 7.7

2556

2556 2.9 6.5 2555 (1) 2555 211,474 2555 0.2 2.8 (2) 2556 225,397. 0.2

2556 1.4 0.1 1.2 12.126.7 19.6

0.7 2.2 0.6 GDP

2557

(1) 3.6 3.1 2556 (2) 102.5 107.5 . 105 110 . (3) 32.0

33.0 . 31.5

32.5 .. 3.0 4.0

2.92556 3.6 3.1 2556 3.0 2


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3

4.0 - 5.0 18 2556

1.92.9

1 0.2GDP 0.6 GDP2556

2557

1. 5.0 - 7.0 2557 2556

2556 5.7 (15) 5.2 6.3 0.7 3.3

2. 2557 27.5 3.0 28.0 0.06

3. 2.0 0.32557 92 90.5 2556 2556 2557 . 2557 95 (1) .. ....

.. 2555 (2) .. 2558 2558

4. 3.8 5.8

5. 1.4 0.22556


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42556 2557 38 48 20 - 30

25571.

2. 2557

3.

4.

17 2557


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51 GDP

:

2 GDP

:

: ( 2531)

2555

2555

2556

2555 2556Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

8.4 3.8 1.4 3.4 1.8 8.3 3.1 0.8 2.5 -0.3 2.3

91.6 6.7 3.0 0.1 4.7 2.7 21.2 5.8 3.0 3.0 0.4

39.1 6.9 0.1 -4.3 2.8 -1.1 37.0 4.9 -1.1 -0.5 -2.9

3.7 9.7 0.9 9.1 11.8 4.9 13.4 2.8 2.8 1.0 -3.2

2.1 7.8 1.2 0.8 6.9 9.8 14.1 10.5 5.0 -2.2 -7.7

13.4 5.2 3.2 4.1 5.4 4.0 7.6 5.1 3.0 2.6 2.2

9.8 8.1 7.9 3.8 7.5 8.0 13.0 8.4 7.7 8.6 7.0

4.2 11.6 12.1 5.6 8.6 7.0 25.7 14.8 14.2 15.1 5.4

4.4 6.5 10.2 6.4 5.5 4.8 9.4 10.0 10.1 11.3 9.1

14.8 4.7 3.3 0.5 4.1 5.3 9.3 3.6 5.3 3.6 0.9

GDP 100.0 6.5 2.9 0.4 4.4 3.1 19.1 5.4 2.9 2.7 0.6

GDP SA. 10.8 3.1 1.6 2.9 -2.1 0.6 1.4 0.6

: ( 2531) 2555 2555 2556 2555 2556

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

52.1 6.7 0.2 2.9 5.3 6.0 12.4 4.4 2.5 -1.2 -4.5

10.1 7.5 4.9 -0.2 7.4 10.0 12.5 2.9 7.6 7.3 0.9

22.8 13.2 -1.9 5.2 10.2 15.5 22.9 5.8 4.7 -6.3 -11.3

18.0 14.4 -2.8 9.2 11.8 16.2 20.9 2.9 2.0 -3.1 -13.1

4.8 8.9 1.3 -9.6 4.0 13.2 31.1 18.8 15.4 -16.2 -4.7 73.0 3.1 4.2 -3.2 1.1 -2.8 19.6 8.3 2.9 3.8 2.0

58.0 -0.4 0.2 -5.0 -1.6 -6.2 13.5 3.7 -1.5 -1.4 0.2

15.0 19.1 19.7 4.2 15.4 14.3 45.7 25.7 22.4 25.2 8.0

59.6 6.2 2.3 4.3 8.6 -1.8 15.0 8.1 4.5 0.8 -3.5

50.5 6.5 1.8 4.3 8.8 -2.3 16.9 9.5 4.4 -0.5 -5.3

9.1 4.6 5.2 4.3 7.1 1.3 5.8 1.2 5.3 8.1 6.3

GDP 100.0 6.5 2.9 0.4 4.4 3.1 19.1 5.4 2.9 2.7 0.6


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6


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73 2557

:, 172557

: 1/ 6 IMF(http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/Newtable.aspx)

2/

2555 2556 18 .. 56 17 .. 57

GDP ( : ) 11,375 11,897 12,769 12,599

() 167,501 174,319 186,116 183,638

GDP ( : .) 366 385 399 388

(. ) 5,389 5,647 5,816 5,650

GDP( , %) 6.5 2.9 4.0-5.0 3.0-4.0

( , %) 13.2 -1.9 7.1 3.1

( , %) 14.4 -2.8 5.8 3.8

( , %)

8.9 1.3 12.0 0.3 ( , %) 6.8 1.0 2.9 1.6

( , %) 6.7 0.2 2.7 1.4

( , %) 7.5 4.9 3.8 2.0

(, %) 3.1 4.2 7.0 6.0

(.) 225.9 225.4 241.0 241.2

(, %)2/ 3.1 -0.2 7.0 5.0-7.0

(, %)2/ 2.5 0.2 6.0 4.0-6.0

(, %) 6.2 2.3 6.2 4.6

(.)1/ 219.9 219.0 236.0 231.7

(, %)2/ 8.8 -0.4 6.7 5.7

(, %)2/ 7.1 1.7 6.2 5.2

(.)1/ 6.0 6.4 5.8 9.6

(.) 1/-1.5 -2.8 -2.5 -0.6

GDP (%)-0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2

(%) 3.0 2.2 2.1-3.1 1.9-2.9

GDP Deflator 1.3 1.7 2.1-3.1 1.9-2.9
http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/Newtable.aspxhttp://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/Newtable.aspxhttp://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/Newtable.aspxhttp://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/Newtable.aspxhttp://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/Newtable.aspxhttp://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/Newtable.aspx


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Thai Economy in Q4/2013 and Outlook for 2014

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) announced the

official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q4/2013 and the outlook for 2014 as follows:

The Thai economy in the fourth quarter of 2013 expanded by 0.6 percent. Compared to the

third quarter on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the economy registered 0.6 percent

growth. Overall economic stability remained sound which can be seen from a 0.7 percent

unemployment rate and 1.7 percent inflation rate together with a small current account surplus. In2013, the Thai economy expanded by 2.9 percent.

The Thai Economy in the fourth quarter of 2013The Thai economy in the fourth quarter of 2013, measured by GDP, expanded by 0.6

percentslowing down from 2.7 percent in the previous quarter. This owed to a decline in domestic

demand. Household expenditure contracted by 4.5 percent. This is due mainly to a 42 percent

contraction of passenger car sales in this quarter as compared to the fourth quarter of 2012 during which

the delivery of passenger cars under the first-time-car-buyer scheme peaked. Deteriorated consumer

confidence which was caused by the political unrest also rendered consumers cautious in spending.Meanwhilethe government expenditure at constant price expanded by only 0.9 percent due to the

decline in payment to government officials who joined early retirement program.

Total investmentcontracted by 11.3 percent. Private investmentdeclined by 13.1 percent,

aggravated from a contraction of 3.1 percent in the previous quarter due to a decline in both

machinery and construction investment following worsened business sentiment. Public investment

contracted by 4.7 percent due primarily to the decline in disbursement of the off budget including

investment budget under TKK, investment budget under the Development Policy Loan, and loan

under Water Resource Management Program. The decline was seen in the contraction of

government construction.

In the mean time, export values of goods were 55,884 million US dollar, declining by 1.0

percent resulting from the global economic slowdown and the impacts from the Early Mortality

Syndrome (EMS) in shrimp production. Exported goods which registered increase include, for

example, electronics (1.7%), petroleum products (11.8%), machinery and equipment (8.9%), and

agricultural products (5.9%). Exported items which contracted include, for example, passenger cars

(22.9%), fishery products (-22.9%), metal products (-37.2%), and sugar (-1.2%). Import value of

goods stood at 52,036 million US dollar, significantly contracted by 7.6 percent. However, the

number of tourists showed a slowdown in the latter half of the year though still increased compared

with the same period of last year. Hence net export volumes of goods and services (volume of

exports minus volume of imports of goods and services) expanded and together with mounting


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2inventories supported the economy in the fourth quarter to record a positive growth. Export

volumes of goods and servicesexpanded by 2.0 percent, slightly decelerated from 3.8 percent in the

previous quarter. Nevertheless, import volumes of goods and servicesdecreased by 3.5 percent.

On the production side, agricultural sectorexpanded by 2.3 percent. This improvement was

mainly attributed to the increase in key products particularly that of rice, rubber, and livestock.

Meanwhile, production of sugarcane, cassava, oil palm, and fishery declined. Meanwhile average

agricultural price increased by 1.8 percent and contributed to 4.8 percent increase in farm income.

Hotel and restaurants sector grew by 5.4 percent. The number of inbound tourists stood at 7.1

million persons or accounted for 10.7 percent growth, slowing down from 26.1 percent in the

previous quarter. Manufacturing sector declined by 2.9 percent, the third consecutive quarter of

contraction. This was mainly due to the declines in private consumption and export of manufacturing

products. In addition, construction sector contracted by 7.7 percent, contributed by a contraction in

government and private construction.

Thai economy in 2013

In 2013, the Thai economy expanded by 2.9 percent, considerably slowed down from 6.5

percent in 2012. This was mainly attributed to the high bases of private consumption and

investment and deceleration of the quantity of exported goods and services. The high base of

private consumption and investment in the second half of 2012 was primarily stimulated by the

governments first-car-buyer scheme which resulted in the large increase in car sale in 2012

especially the sale of 211,474 passenger cars in Q4/2012. This momentum of economic stimulus

measure was diminished in 2013. Hence 2013 registered a slowdown in domestic demand while

consumer confidence declined. Household expenditure grew by 0.2 percent while government

expenditure and investment also decelerated. Moreover, export volumes of goods and services

remained sluggish owing to the unclear sign of the global economic recovery, the EMS in shrimp, and

the slow adjustment to adapt to a more advanced technology in electronic sectors. In 2013, export

values of goods registered at 225,397 million US dollar, slightly declined by 0.2 percent.

The slowdown in consumption and exports brought about the slowdown in production of all

sector. In 2013, agricultural sector increased by 1.4 percent. Manufacturing sector expanded by 0.1

percent. Construction sector grew by 1.2 percent and hotel and restaurants sector expanded by 12.1

percent. The number of inbound tourists totaled 26.7 million persons or accounted for 19.6 percent

growth rate.

However, economic stability remained sound. In 2013, the unemployment rate stood at 0.7

percent and the headline inflation was 2.2 percent. The current account recorded a deficit of 0.6

percent of GDP.

Economic Outlook for 2014

The Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) makes the

following assumptions for the 2014 economic forecast in this release: (1) The world economic

growth of 3.6 percent, accelerating from 3.1 percent in 2013, (2) Dubai oil price is in the range of

102.5-107.5 USD, lower than 105-110 USD assumed in the previous forecast, and (3) Exchange rate


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3of baht is averaged at 32.0-33.0 baht per one USD, weaker than the assumption of 31.5-32.5

baht/USD used in the previous forecast.

Based on the said assumptions, NESDB projects that the Thai economy in 2014 will grow in

the range of 3.0-4.0 percent, improving from a 2.9 percent in 2013. The main contributions include

the recovery of export sector in line with the recovery of the global economy which is expected to

grow by 3.6 percent as compared to 3.1 percent growth in 2013. Tourism is also expected to

positively support the economic growth in 2014. Despite some impacts from the political unrest

during the first half of 2014, the number of foreign tourists is predicted to increase by 3 percent. In

addition, the increase in disbursement of government budget and the recovery of private

investment are likely to contribute to the economic growth. It is expected that the enactment of

investment promotion policy will be made clear and effective in the second half of the year when

the approval of the application for investment promotion is expected to increase.

All in all, the domestic demand may face with some constraints and is expected to remain

sluggish and as a result the economic growth in 2014 will be lower than 4.0-5.0 percent in previous

projection released on 18 November 2013. This is due primarily to a delay in public investment

projects implementation and weak private consumption.

Nevertheless, overall economic stability remained favorable. The headline inflation is likely

to be in the range of 1.9 - 2.9 percent provided that domestic demand does not pick up strongly

while crude oil prices are likely to be stable. The unemployment rate tends to be lower than 1

percent. The current account will record a deficit of 0.2 percent of GDP, improves slightly from a

deficit of 0.6 percent of GDP in 2013. Detailed descriptions of each component in the projection are

as follows:

1. Export sector started to show a clear sign of recovery and is likely to continue to growat a faster pace.It is expected that export value will be able to grow by 5.0-7.0 percent, and will be

one of the most important supportive factors for economic growth in 2014. The global economic

recovery prevailed more clearly towards the end of 2013, providing support for Thailands export

sector. Export volumes, after seasonal adjustment, expanded by 5.7 percent compared to the third

quarter 2012. Values of export to the US and the Euro zone (15) increased by 5.2 and 6.3 percent, up

from 0.7 and 3.3 percent in the third quarter respectively.

2. The number of foreign tourists in 2014 is expected to reach 27.5 million personsincrease by 3.0 percent from 2013, but lower than previous assumption of 28.0 million personswhich was the official target and was used in the last projection. This is because many countries

have issued tourist warning for travelling into Thailand. This already had an impact on the number of

tourist visiting Thailand in January 2014 which increased by only 0.06 percent.

3. Private consumption expenditure is expected to grow by 1.4 percent, improving from0.2 percent expansion in 2013 but still lower than the previous projection since the domestic

political disturbances are likely to dampen consumer confidence further.In addition, the unusual

high base of domestic car sales during the first half of 2013 will result in a decline in domestic car

sales in 2014. It is thus predicted that the sale of passenger cars will drop in the range of 38-48

percent in the first quarter and 20-30 percent in the second quarter of 2014.


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44. Private investment is likely to recover at a slow pace in line with the recovery state of

the overall economy coupled with a result of the political disturbance that will defer the recovery

of business confidence.New investors are likely to wait for a direction of the political resolution,

direction of investment promotion policy and major public investment plans. Thus, private

investment is expected to expand by 3.8 percent, lower than 5.8 percent in the previous forecast.

5. Public expenditure is expected to grow by 2.0 percent, and public investment to growby 0.3 percent, NESDBexpects that the disbursement rate in FY2014 will reach 92 percent, slightly

higher than 90.5 percent in FY2013. This is partly contributed by some carry over expenditure from

FY2013 when the disbursement rate was lower than the target despite the measures to accelerate

disbursement and its efficiency. However, the FY2014 disbursement rate assumed in this forecast is

lower than 95 percent disbursement rate assumed in the previous forecast. The reasons behind this

revision include (1) a delay in public investment plan both under the Royal Decree on investment

loan for public infrastructure development B.E., and the investment plan under the Royal Decree

on investment loan for water resource management and future development in 2012, and (2) a

delay in the formation of the new government and thus will defer the budgeting process of the FY

2015. As a result, only some parts of FY2015 budget can be disbursed within the first quarter of the

fiscal year (the fourth quarter of the calendar year 2015).

Economic Management in 20141. Expediting exports to expand at its full potential in order to be an income base for

supporting domestic demandand to serve as a key engine for the Thai economy. The policies should

be emphasized on raising export income from major markets and newly high-potential markets,

supporting adjustment of production sector, as well as promoting boarder and interregional trade by

facilitating cross-border trade and transport as well as facilitating entrepreneurs to penetrate the

markets in neighboring countries.

2. Administering the public projects which have already been approved to proceed in theoperation stage and to achieve the target of the FY2014 disbursement rate. Operational plans for the

projects which still need to be scrutinized by the new cabinet must be prepared in order to expedite their

operations in the latter half of the year. It is also necessary to clarify and address guidelines for public

infrastructure investment projects as well as to improve the investment promotion policy and the

scrutiny of the pending investment applications for approval.

3.

Implementing accommodative monetary policies for the economic recovery includingpreceding exchange rate from overly volatile, and managing the liquidity in the economy as well

as ensuring the access to creditin particular for SMEs entrepreneurs

4. Preparing for mitigating the impacts from intensified drought conditionsincluding, forexample, providing alternative job opportunity during the drought period and adjustment of

production process.

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board

17thFebruary 2014


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5Table1: GDP by production components (at constant 1988prices, %)

Source: NESDB

Table 2:GDP by expenditure components (at constant 1988 Prices, %)

Source: NESDB

Weight2012

2012 20132012 2013

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Agriculture 8.4 3.8 1.4 3.4 1.8 8.3 3.1 0.8 2.5 -0.3 2.3

Non-Agriculture 91.6 6.7 3.0 0.1 4.7 2.7 21.2 5.8 3.0 3.0 0.4

Manufacturing 39.1 6.9 0.1 -4.3 2.8 -1.1 37.0 4.9 -1.1 -0.5 -2.9

Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 3.7 9.7 0.9 9.1 11.8 4.9 13.4 2.8 2.8 1.0 -3.2

Construction 2.1 7.8 1.2 0.8 6.9 9.8 14.1 10.5 5.0 -2.2 -7.7

Wholesale and Retail Trade 13.4 5.2 3.2 4.1 5.4 4.0 7.6 5.1 3.0 2.6 2.2

Transport and Communications 9.8 8.1 7.9 3.8 7.5 8.0 13.0 8.4 7.7 8.6 7.0

Hotels and Restaurants 4.2 11.6 12.1 5.6 8.6 7.0 25.7 14.8 14.2 15.1 5.4

Financial Intermediation 4.4 6.5 10.2 6.4 5.5 4.8 9.4 10.0 10.1 11.3 9.1

Other 14.8 4.7 3.3 0.5 4.1 5.3 9.3 3.6 5.3 3.6 0.9

GDP 100.00 6.5 2.9 0.4 4.4 3.1 19.1 5.4 2.9 2.7 0.6

GDP SA. 10.8 3.1 1.6 2.9 -2.1 0.6 1.4 0.6

Weight2012

2012 20132012 2013

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Private Consumption Expenditure 52.1 6.7 0.2 2.9 5.3 6.0 12.4 4.4 2.5 -1.2 -4.5

Government Consumption Expenditure 10.1 7.5 4.9 -0.2 7.4 10.0 12.5 2.9 7.6 7.3 0.9

Gross Fixed Capital Formation 22.8 13.2 -1.9 5.2 10.2 15.5 22.9 5.8 4.7 -6.3 -11.3

Private 18.0 14.4 -2.8 9.2 11.8 16.2 20.9 2.9 2.0 -3.1 -13.1

Public 4.8 8.9 1.3 -9.6 4.0 13.2 31.1 18.8 15.4 -16.2 -4.7

Exports of Goods and Services 73.0 3.1 4.2 -3.2 1.1 -2.8 19.6 8.3 2.9 3.8 2.0

Goods (f.o.b.) 58.0 -0.4 0.2 -5.0 -1.6 -6.2 13.5 3.7 -1.5 -1.4 0.2

Services 15.0 19.1 19.7 4.2 15.4 14.3 45.7 25.7 22.4 25.2 8.0

Imports of Goods and Services 59.6 6.2 2.3 4.3 8.6 -1.8 15.0 8.1 4.5 0.8 -3.5

Goods (c.i.f.) 50.5 6.5 1.8 4.3 8.8 -2.3 16.9 9.5 4.4 -0.5 -5.3

Services 9.1 4.6 5.2 4.3 7.1 1.3 5.8 1.2 5.3 8.1 6.3

GDP 100.0 6.5 2.9 0.4 4.4 3.1 19.1 5.4 2.9 2.7 0.6


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6Table 3: Economic Projection 2014

Source: Office of National Economic and Social Development Board, 17thFebruary 2014

Note: 1/Bank of Thailand has adjusted the balance of payments calculation method based on the 6 thIMF Balance of Paymentand International Investment Position Manual (for more information, seehttp://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/EconomicAndFinancial/ExternalSector/Pages/Newtable.aspx)

2/Export and import base on the Bank of Thailands data.

Actual Data Projection

2012 2013 18 Nov 13 17 Feb 14

GDP (at current prices: Bil. Bht) 11,375 11,897 12,769 12,599

GDP per capita (Bht per year) 167,501 174,319 186,116 183,638

GDP (at current prices: Bil. USD) 366 385 399 388

GDP per capita (USD per year) 5,389 5,647 5,816 5,650

GDP Growth (at constant prices, %) 6.5 2.9 4.0-5.0 3.0-4.0

Investment (at constant prices, %) 13.2 -1.9 7.1 3.1

Private (at constant prices, %) 14.4 -2.8 5.8 3.8

Public (at constant prices, %) 8.9 1.3 12.0 0.3

Consumption (at constant prices, %) 6.8 1.0 2.9 1.6

Private (at constant prices, %) 6.7 0.2 2.7 1.4

Public (at constant prices, %) 7.5 4.9 3.8 2.0

Export volume of goods & services (%) 3.1 4.2 7.0 6.0

Export value of goods (Bil. USD)1/ 225.9 225.4 241.0 241.2

Growth rate (%)2/ 3.1 -0.2 7.0 5.0-7.0

Growth rate (Volume, %)2/ 2.5 0.2 6.0 4.0-6.0

Import volume of goods & services (%) 6.2 2.3 6.2 4.6Import value of goods (Bil. USD)1/ 219.9 219.0 236.0 231.7

Growth rate (%)2/ 8.8 -0.4 6.7 5.7

Growth rate (Volume, %)2/ 7.1 1.7 6.2 5.2

Trade balance (Bil. USD)1/ 6.0 6.4 5.8 9.6

Current account balance (Bil. USD) 1/ -1.5 -2.8 -2.5 -0.6

Current account to GDP (%) -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2

Inflation (%)

CPI 3.0 2.2 2.1-3.1 1.9-2.9

GDP Deflator 1.3 1.7 2.1-3.1 1.9-2.9

Thailand – GDP 4Q2013

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