Templates for Trade. Change, Persistence and Path Dependence in U. S. and EU Preferential Trade...

7/29/2019 Templates for Trade. Change, Persistence and Path Dependence in U. S. and EU Preferential Trade Agreements Ali Arbia Abstract

1/36

Templates for Trade

Ch, Pc Ph Dc U. S. EU P T A

A A

N. 51 | S 2013

WORKING PAPER


2/36

2 | KFGWorking Paper No. 51 | September 2013

KFG Working Paper Series

Edited by the Kolleg-Forschergruppe Th Tnv Pw Eu

Th KFG W P S v h ch u h K-Fchu y

h v uc. I hc cc xch w h

x c ch x u c Eu h Eu U.

A KFG W P v h KFG w www.u.u c v

-u@u-..

Cyh h u: A A

E c uc: A Bch, C Buuh F Buh

A, A 2013: T T. Ch, Pc Ph Dc U. S. EU P T A-

, KFG W P S, N. 51, S 2013, K-Fchu (KFG) Th Tv Pw Eu F Uv B.

ISSN 1868-6834 (P)

ISSN 1868-7601 (I)

Th uc h u y h G Rch Fu (DFG).

F Uv B

K-Fchu

Th Tv Pw Eu:

Th Eu U h Du I

Ih. 26

14195 B

Gy

Ph: +49 (0)30- 838 57033

Fx: +49 (0)30- 838 57096

-u@u-.

www.u.u


3/36

Templates for Trade | 3

Templates for Trade

Change, Persistence and Path Dependence in U. S. and EU

Pn T Agn

Ai Abi

Abc

Ov h w c, P T A (PTA) huh h

y. PTA c w u x h y h W T

Oz (WTO). PTA cy u h y, -

y c cxy. Th c y u ycy c ,

h ch h u. I ycy u h c

h Eu U (EU) h U S (U. S.) w wh PTA. S

u h h w h, h, uy . Th w

u h c h . U u hy w, yz PTA y h EU, h U.

S. h . U h u w h

h uv wh PTA wh h EU h U. S. w h y

h . Th y cuc c v u PTA

c quv c PTA v (-cu, v cuu

c). Th uy h h xy h c h ,

u , c ch uy v .

Th Auh

Ai Abi Pc Fw h K-Fchu Th

Tv Pw Eu, F Uv B. H cv h

PhD I R h Gu Iu I

Dv Su, Gv. H w v w Gw

Uvy Wh DC h Uv L Bux. H cu-

ch , jucz, Euz,

u h . H h c c-

c cuc h h w 2.0. M www.

.ch www.w.c/z.

Cc: [email protected]


4/36


Contents

1. Iuc 5

2. C T: Ch Pc 6

2.1 Templates and Diusion 6

2.2 Templates andGlobal Trends 8

2.3 The World Trade Organizaon 113. D Mh 13

4. Hz T: A T Tw R 17

5. Vc T: Ev, A-Cu Sc

C 22

6. Ccu 29

Bhy 32

Ax: A 34


5/36


1. Inucn1

Sc h c h W T Oz (WTO) 1995, c

y w h: h P T A (PTA). PTA hv c h y h u y c. Th WTO

379 PTA c 2013.2 Th hv uy h

. F y, h h c PTA cu u c

(Bw 1993, 1997, 2006; Bw/Th 2008) u c (Bhw 1991, 1996; Bhw/

Py 1996; Bhw . 1998; Bhw . 1999) h wy u z. Th u

c u y h cvy h cu h u PTA.

PTA c vy cx, u-y w u, u, . Th cx

h u. Th cu u y vy w c-

y u. Ec cu vu h c PTA hy hc

z. L x ycy cc cc , cu u.

Th u h c PTA v. Fw u hw

h u hy , hy xcuvy c u cc -

c.

I h w , I x wy h . I u h c w wh

PTA (Bw 2006: 1469; Bw/Th 2008: 49; D 2007: 7; Wu 2004: 89)

h w vu (Dv 2009: 27). Fcu h u

h wy uy h c xy PTA c

h x. Th, u, w h h hw uch h uy

( h cc u) whch x c h cy c

y. I cuc y PTA c c v h w c

h . Th y u , c v.

B w , h cu h c v u. Th

c v cu hw h hw uh w F T

A (FTA), P T A (PTA) R T A (RTA). Th WTO

u RTA u uh w PTA (.., u h -c

cu) FTA. I h u u.

A RTA c quy c-, h hc h cy .

Thu h WTO R R RTA c c. I h w , I w h

w h c cc cc u , uh

h w u FTA Cu U (CU). I h h -

v, u y c h c h h uuy

cc cc .

1 Th W P x h ch I cuc Fw h K-Fchu

Th Tv Pw Eu (KFG). I w h y cu h KFG y hu c-

huhu h vu h uc. A y y w.

2 WTO w, h://.w./UI/ucuy.x, v 15 Juy 2013.


6/36


2. Ciing T: Chng n Pinc

2.1 Templates and Diusion

Th PTA c y u. Tycy, uc vw -

v h . A h , h c h PTA w

vy c c ch. T yz h u , I

w u h x u PTA. I vw h u u h c, I w cu

u h v h h. O h h h, I w u u yc

w. Th u h u w .

S, D G v h [] cy u ccu wh v cy

c v cuy ycy c y cy chc h cu

(2006: 787). W c xc cy u c wh u PTA . Th

PTA cu y c u cu []u ch

v y h v h -, h juc u, ch u-

wh y ccuc (E/S 2005: 34). E S

h v wh uy h u cy chc (2004: 187). Th

y h WTO c .

S, D G y u c ch u: cc, c, -

u (2006: 782). A u u ch wh c .

Ahuh I w c c h, I y h c y y h vu

ch h w . I cu h h x whch cc c c

c PTA. Du c u c, u uc (E/S 2005: 37) wh

h w w : C w v u uc PTA v?

Bz R u , huh hy wy c huh whch

c c (Bz/R 2009: 5; S/My 1993). Th

h uy h cc cy h . I w h

h c PTA c u c hc . Ahuh h ch

h x ycy wu c u, ,

h h u h w u c .

Th u uch u u, ccy h h cy. S

E cy u c cy. Th cu vy c

v cc u u . Th u h

hc uy c x wh uy z z. T

cu h ccu h h yc u v c

(2004: 186). U h w , hy u PTA xy v h.

S uh u u y c whu xc u-

. A h uh h c Rch Bw, wh D Thy cu


7/36


c u y c (Bw 1993, 2006; Bw/Jvch 2010; Bw/

Th 2008). H u h hc c h v vuy -

c h u uh z. F h Ac, Bw u, h

v w h ccu h Mxc-U.S. F T A (MUSFTA), Eu h c- h S M (Bw 1997: 27, 2006: 1482). Acc h u, c

h hz v h .

I v, u c cc c, Rvh w c

c (2010). Dz u z cy cvc (2001). I PTA -

ch h uch wy (.., c / cvc), w c cy xc PTA

hw ccy v wh cu h c, - u.

Fy, h u u u PTA cc u c. Thy

cc qu (.., Nh-Suh ) hc (.., Pcc R) ,

h, y vu h uy ( x M 2009; Nw 2009). Hwv,

h h h u h x .

Th c h cu u wh c h u

PTA (Bw 2006: 1469). Sv vw h Oc h U S T Rv

(USTR) hv h U.S. . N h Eu F T Ac (EFTA) -

h (uh vw Wh DC 2009, Gv B 20103). Th USTR -

cu ( x USTR 2007). S uh u h h -

hc cu h w ( hu w) (Bw/Th 2008: 49). Th

cu /u hw h wh hw ch. S

u (uh vw Wh DC 20094), h cc (..,

Wu (2004: 89) S Ch; S w uh vw

Wh DC 2009), h h ch y c c (D 2007: 7;

USTR 2007). Th vw c u u h []

ch PTA c uu - , h c h cy

cy w h x vu (Dv 2009: 27).

I h u, h w x uh y uy u w PTA

v. O 2012 c y Ry Hc S Y K. Thy u PTA

A h y h cc c c. Th h xc c

uh y ch w c h Ay EU U.S. -

(H . 2010). Th ch w u h , cu h

c c.

3 Uucu vw wh US hh c Wh DC 10,

12, 16 23 Nv 2009, wh EFTA Gv 3 Ju 3 My 2010 wh hh

Sw c B 2 8 Ju 2010.

4 Uucu vw wh US 4 Nv 2009 USTR c 24 Nv

2009 Wh DC.


8/36


H h cu y c cc ch w cc

PTA. Jh Rvh, x, qu h h v c h PTA y

cc . I c uy h Nw E A R, h ch h h h

Nw R c: E A ccuu h (2010: 185). Th, h u h h why wu uh

u z, c y w h uc h ch w . F

u, h c cc u h h (Rvh 2010:

200). Th v u h A-Pcc Ecc C (APEC) PTA y Cc

Du Dv Hu (2008: 116).

I h uch v y cc c h c, hy

u , h qu hw h c h c. I ccu PTA

u c c w h c h u

c c, h c cy PTA h vy wh uuy u. I

h w c h xcper se h h cu

c, h wy w uy h -huh.

I u h xc h uy. I w vy h c

cc h u c h c v. I h hyh c,

h x qu hw u ( ). Hw hw y h -

u wh ccuc c w v ch? I w u h cc h

h uy cv h wy c ccuz. Th

c u ywh h cu u y- y

h h vy y vu (Dv 2009: 27).

Th yc h . I u h w

w u h , h h ccu wu vuy vy

uy xc c c ch c. I u u h c

h u h w M hc: I w PTA , h

h cuy vu (A 2011; Dv 2009: 27;

Wu 2004: 89). L ch, PTA DNA w c. Auy h

w hc, h v w . Pwu cu w c

v c h . W h y c-

h. S v w cv. Thy w h cu

hy cc y h h y hv h c. Fy,

v w c h c ch h w (, c wh

h h, ). Thy w hw chcc c vv.

2.2 Templates and Global Trends

Why hu w h yc PTA? My u vc h c

h PTA y cy , u h hy


9/36


c v h quy vwh h cc , , c. I h

cuc u hw h u c u. Suy h h h

y wy uy h h. I h uc, I w v h vc

h u v. F h u, h PTA zy h w c hv vw.

F, Vj Tquu v wh hy c c v hc (2007: 2)

PTA. A xy u c h cy h h PTA. Fu 1 hw h v

h u w y h h PTA u 2011.5 Th

c uw vc h h c (A 2011; H . 2010) wh

v c wh h u . Th x uy, u y

v uc. A h wy .

Figure 1: Mean Total Words in PTAs

Year

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1993

1992

MeanWordsTotal

400000

300000

200000

100000

0

Suc: uh w ch.

5 F c, h w u whch h u h c

u. F A 2011.


10/36


Ah why c h h hy v h cc. A h u, u-

h u c wh c cu x. Wh h u -

w, yc cu cy , hc, cu

h . Th c wh Dv vw h vy v - h x (2009: 27), wh h cv h hy y x. I c

wh wh w wu xc u h. I h uch hz u -

, h c h c ch h. Th cquc h yc u y Fu

2 hw h accumulated u w PTA y h h c.

A h w , c cc c

h w w cu. A h u c u c h y. Th u

cu x h qu x .

Figure 2: Accumulaon of PTA Legalizaon

Year

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1993

1992

1985

1983

1977

1971

1964

Cumu

lat

ive

Sum

ofT

ota

l

Wor

ds

in

PTAs

14000000

12000000

10000000

8000000

6000000

4000000

2000000

0

Suc: uh w ch.

Th ch yz hw x h wh hy y xcy PTA c-

. Th w cu x ch h wy: F, w w vuy

cu ch PTA v. Hw y h u c sui generis

c h u u? Sc, y cu , c

cu PTA v c . Th, u


11/36


hw v c PTA ju h (hzy vcy) w

uy PTA h u u. Th w w u h

yc, c c h yc hv h y.

2.3 The World Trade Organizaon

Th c h v h cc . I c h c -

hyh, h WTO z h c h PTA x h h

uc PTA u v. Bu vw h vc, w

y cy h cc cc w h WTO PTA, h u

h - u wy z.

F c uy hc cv, wy u u

y (xc w vy cc ccuc). B- u

u uc h vw. Wh h , u cc h -

h yc v h PTA u cc uu

x: O h , PTA cc wh h

. O h h , PTA v cy wc

.

Wh h WTO w , h w vy w w h -

w u z . Hwv, h cx

y c y x u h PTA u WTO u. Bu

hv PTA ( PTA) , h, vy

. Th WTO C R T A (CRTA) vw h

cy PTA wh h WTO y, u c v uc . Wh

h WTO w, PTA u xc h u. I hy, PTA

u c c h WTO h y u cc ccuc.

A x u qu ju u h cu h y. Th Ac

XXIV h G A T T (GATT) cv , Ac

V h G A T Svc (GATS) vc, h c E Cu,

whch v x -cc wh v cu.

Iy hw x hv v--v h qu y PTA, w

wu c h h u PTA cy u h y h WTO. Th wy, h

WTO c h PTA. I u h wy hw h WTO h PTA h

h c wh h: F, v (.., chv, uy

). Sc, h WTO c (.., Du S Mch (DSM), Hz,

WTO A h Ac Sy Phyy Mu (SPS), A Tchc

B T (TBT)). Th, v c w (.., -cc,

h ). N h c w v u . Nvh, hy

v v h h h .


12/36


A xy u h xc h cc vy hw h WTO c PTA.

A xc c h WTO. Th u c h c

v w wh h u ( u 3 h ). I ,

h ycy hv ucy WTO c, whch h h h u h WTO h h h y hu h WTO/GATT

. Oy 14 u 102 y h h (7.5 c) hv uch

c 5 u h 14 w c 1990 (A 2011). Ty, uch cu

cc PTA. Cy, h WTO c. Ahuh

h u whch x PTA c wh WTO u, u-

h y c wh h WTO .

Figure 3: GATT and WTO References

Year

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1993

1992

Me

an

50

40

30

20

10

0

References WTO

References GATT

Suc: uh w ch.

O h yc v, w h h yc PTA w v c-

wh h u: v . Th c wh

h y Dv h . Th WTO v

v wh (u y ) uc h c . Hwv,

c h y uc h h . Th hw h PTA c u

. I h w c, I w h y y w h vw h y

h , , c v.


13/36


3. Data and Method

Th ch qu h hw PTA u hw hy (

). A hv cu h yc v h vu c, I w v v w. Th cu h c w wh I c h hz u PTA, c

u u. B I wh h y, I w v c u h

h h u. I w cu h c c .

T u h h c c y c c c, I w cu

h EU h U.S. I qu u h h w c y uch

h cu h z w. A y whch

u ch w , hy y . S uh hv

c h h EU h U.S. xcy y uy (H . 2010)

h hy u hu y wh hv h c (Au . 2005:

578; Bw 2006: 1483; Bw/Th 2008: 9; UNDP 2007: 152).

My u h h EU h U.S. w wh PTA. Th

h . I u h y h -

cu h c h u u (cc, c, u;

S . 2006: 782). Th c u h ch cy h uy cu I

h uc h cc ch . Du h vwh

cc w h U.S. h EU u h h w c u cc h

. C y h c h cu u ccy c-

v y h u h , whch u c -c c

h cu h . Wh h EU h U.S. h w -

, u h u ch. T x, w h v

c, v huh h EU h U.S. wu cu v h. I hy

h wy, h xc h u h u wh

h w PTA wh h . Th, I w c PTA y c c

PTA y h EU h U.S..

Th U.S. h EU vuy h y PTA h c PTA -

. Th EU h 37 h c, EFTA 21, h U.S. 17. I 2007 cc

h WTO, h h c h 70 c

cu h Nh h x Nh-Suh . Acc h u, 29.7

c w y h EU, 23.4 c y h EFTA, 17.0 c y h U.S.. Ovuy, h

c h z.

T yz h hz u , I w c u c w . O

y h EU EFTA, h h c h U.S., Mxc Ch. Ahuh h

cv wh c hcy cuu , I w h

h c . Nvh, I hv ch h w cu , h h, Mxc h

vy c y wh h U.S. huh h Nh Ac F T A (NAFTA), wh,


14/36


h h, Ch y h. Thu, w c c c. Th c

C h y u h c v . C v PTA

h h h cu. I , h wh Ch, EFTA h U.S. c-

quy cy h yz wh v PTA.

Th c EFTA cu wh hy ch c 1960 y u -

h. Nvh, wh h cc Au, F Sw h EU 1995, EFTA u -

h w c. Th cc xy wh h h u PTA

cc c h . Hwv, h u c W C

Eu vy ywy.

Figure 4: Intra- and Cross-Regional Agreements Analyzed Sample

USA

EU

EFTAChile

Mexico

NorwaySwitzerland

Iceland

Liechtenstein2 0 0 4

1 9 9 4

(NAFTA)

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 3

1994 (EEA)

2 0 0 2 -

1924 (CU)

2 0 0 1

Suc: uh w ch

Fu 4 hw y h v c hv. O c h h c-

c cc v, x, h c Ch Mxc. Bh hv

wh h EU EFTA . Th I w yz

c h v cu ( wh h ) v h WTO

u. T 1 hw uy h h . A c

u h x.

Th u c 86 PTA y h EU (27), EFTA (22), h U.S. (12), Ch (14)

Mxc (11). Th xc I c vu ch jc. Th c

c u h x ( h c hy c u A


15/36


2011). Th vwh jy w 1995 . Hwv, I cu

hy w v h WTO.

Table 1 Agreements Included

n n n

EU 26 1 27

Ch 12 2 14

EFTA 17 5 22

Mxc 9 2 11

U S 10 2 12

Suc: uh w ch.

I hv h u cu ccuc. F h c, hy

hz . O , h cc v h c-

v. Wh PTA uv h, h c v-

. I y c, Ch Mxc hv PTA wh EFTA h EU hu u

c uc. I h c Ch, h wh h EU EFTA c u v

(2000 2001, cvy) h h wh h U.S. (2004). I xc hc

xy c . Mxc Ch hv PTA c 1999. A cu yz

u h WTO cu ch h .

Th h c h u PTA uh

h v. Such u c w j : F, h u

cu c c PTA v y. Th h uch c cy. F h

w, I w c cc u h y c. Th c ch h h

u cu vy , h c v.

Tw h NAFTA h U.S. Mxc, h h, h Eu

Ecc A (EEA) h h, whch u cc v cu EFTA h

EU. Th EEA c h NAFTA. N whu h EEA

w c w EU h

(u v h c vc). Th h v h c wh c

EFTA h . A EFTA xc Swz h EEA. Swz

h h w xv c wh h EU. Th w h EU EFTA

y c u.

I , h EU EFTA hv cv h. Hcy, EFTA w cu-

jc h Eu Cu u u h UK. A PTA cc, EFTA w uu

cy w h EU cc c h chc y y.

Bw 1999 2006, h EU h c u c (E 2007,


16/36


2007; Ev 2007; Mu 2007). Th EU c v h u vu -

. Th w EFTA c chc h

c .

A Ch Mxc cc, hy uu vy c -

z. Bh cu h c v cc hc h 1980 cuc

cy c h c (Sz 2005: 8). Thy h wch uu

y x-cu ch (Fch/M 1999: 2). Ahuh Ch h h u hv-

u uch huhy, u z uch

uuy c (Fch/M 1999: 12). Wh Ch c y

y 1979, Mxc c v c u 1985 (B .

2002: 10) y cuh u ccy wh Ch h -1990 (B . 2002: 4). Ch

c h c uu cy u z u h uc

u U.S. c u h y u ( cquy h Chc

By). Th y Ch uh z h w .

F h c y h c, h u w h cv uy y

H, Mv S. I h c, hy c h c PTA y h U.S. y h

EU. F, I w y h . Th I w h y x h qu

y h uh: T whch x w h c wh h

w ? I hy u , w wu xc PTA h

c .

I c h u c , h h c, ch

whch c u c h c PTA h hu h c.

Lucy, h c whch h PTA hv h cy h: h WTO

. I h w h, I w x hw I w u h WTO c

hw h ch c u x ch.

H, Mv S hv u h WTO c yz h c

PTA h uy. Th WTO u h c vy u whch hy u h y-

. Th c y PTA cv 14 y h EU 14 U.S. . Thy

uh w c h WTO cc: O y c c

WTO Pu ( cy h y ujc c

h WTO ) h h WTO X (h WTO Ex) c ( [...]

cy u h h vuy u y h WTO; H . 2010: 1571).

Th v w h h x h w .

Thy v c w h PTA h EU h U.S.. I w

u h h cu h vc h y. Th c hy h

c h h EU u y WTO X v h h U.S. (H . 2010: 1581). I

h w, yc EU PTA w y c h cv y h WTO cc

h uh. Sc, hy u h WTO X v EU u wh hy c


17/36


(H . 2010: 1584). Th h h hc vcy h EU

( h u PTA wh h EU ju h) w

y h EU u h c (H . 2010: 1584). Th, c h ,

h vy cc h uh. Thy cu h h EU hU.S. u h [h] uy [...] h cu.

Hwv, hy h h vc h u uu (H . 2010: 1585).

U h WTO c w c cy h v h h

wh cu y h w y. I v u wh hc hcu

c u ch y uh w WTO X WTO Pu v

( h ch c u h x). A wh h , w w

v h x qu. Th h h c cc WTO X WTO Pu v

hu v h wy hw c h cc vercal .

U h c H, Mv S hv WTO Pu ( WTO )

WTO X (x WTO ), I h ch h 86 wh c y

w. Th h vuy c h h quv y wy

y Mv (h y wy h h uh). I hy u

h qucy uch v h h chu v c h

cv h . Hwv, I - h ch vy h c c

c y u uch.

4. Hizn T: A T Tw Rgin

A , I xc h EU h U.S. xvy uccu h c

h u h z h c . T hz ,

I w u h w wy wh: F, I c h h v cu

c h . Sc, I w hw h c v v h w

h c .

I wh uy h vu h EU, h U.S., EFTA, Ch Mxc. I

Fu 5 Fu 6 w w x. O uz WTO X v (.., c cv y

h WTO h ) h v cu. Th c hw h WTO Pu (..,

x c y h WTO ). A WTO Pu v cc,

u , h - c-. Th WTO X h-

w. Th h c h Ac hv hh WTO X v. EFTA h EU

hv .


18/36


O cu u h Fu 5 Ch c h u wh -w h EU

h U.S. . Th h x y h c h Ch z cy w

c jcy. Th c c h WTO Pu . Th vy w WTO Pu c-

c h w v y x y h xv u z h wuu y Ch . Wh wh z cu y uy

h WTO, Ch hv uch u h . I h vw u h

h y w WTO Pu cc h w Ch u h PTA .

Th hc c cu x hh v u-

y PTA v h U.S.. Bcu w hv y Mxc c , h

cuv.

Figure 5: WTO Plus Provision Overview

CHIMEXUSEFTAEC

WTOP

LUS

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Suc: uh w ch.

Th c vw hw c h yc u z x hz

WTO Pu v u c WTO X v. Hwv, wh h

u h y h . Th chc h u ch v

cu h . PTA uy c y, cxy u

cv (A 2011). Nwy uc c ycy - uqu . PTA

y c v z. S, h c v cu y h v


19/36


vw. T w h cv, I w h chcy uy v ch

vu cu h Ac Eu.

Figure 6: WTO X Provisions Overview

CHIMEXUSEFTAEC

WTOX

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Suc: uh w ch.

Fu 7 Fu 8 hw c h u WTO X WTO Pu, cvy, v

y h EU y EFTA. F WTO X v, uw v. Th

h h u c h WTO (.., WTO X v) h

c v . I h h qu c h EU EFTA.

F WTO Pu v, h c uch c. Th v c w, u

h vc uu . Th v WTO Pu v uch h WTO X

v. Th, uc h cy WTO Pu v. I

c h, h c WTO Pu c v h y. Th

cy h EU h EFTA.


20/36


Figure 7: WTO Plus Chronology Europe

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

WTOPlus

Year

EC

EFTA

Linear (EC)

Linear (EFTA)

Figure 8: WTO X Chronology Europe

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

WTOX

Year

EC

EFTA

Linear (EC)

Linear (EFTA)

Th c h Ac v Fu 9 10. Th u cu . A

WTO X c cc, h cu u h wy. A c h

Eu c h c uw ww c . F WTO X v, h

Suc: uh w ch.

Suc: uh w ch.


21/36


ccy h uch . Thy cy w y

ccu .

Figure 9: WTO Plus Chronology Americas

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

WTOPlus

Year

US

Chile

Mexico

Linear (US)

Linear (Chile)

Linear (Mexico)

Figure 10: WTO X Chronology Americas

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

WT

OX

Year

US

CHI

MEX

Linear (US)

Linear (CHI)

Linear (MEX)

Suc: uh w ch.

Suc: uh w ch.


22/36


Th v h w: Th wy WTO X v PTA hw

c h . Th u Eu h c-

h Ac, . Th h c . Iy, h

h c WTO Pu v. I Eu, w cy w v x v--v h WTO (.., WTO X v), wh h Ac h h c.

Ahuh h y u, w cu u y c

h Fu 7 10 vc: Thy vy uh wh hy

(u vy w) Eu. Ahuh hy v wh cu

u h, -h y cy c y z h

h.

I uv h WTO X v y w h WTO Pu -

v. F WTO Pu v, h h vu c (.., h WTO) h

v u h. Th uv c. Th h

wh u PTA. Wh qu-uv h, WTO c -

z h w y ujc u .

Th ccy w EU EFTA c u. EFTA cy w

EU u h h 1990. Wh h c u PTA w u c y

h C 1999, EFTA c wh cy chc

(uh vw 20106). Th c u w c u 2006, wh x-

h hh cy (E 2001, 2007; Ev 2007; Mu 2007). Iy, h

ch c h u. I cu c ccu cu

h u c , v y, h vy w h

ccu PTA.

5. Vc T: Envinn, An-Cun n Sci Cn

Th vu c uy c wh ch hz

u . Th u h u y c wh h

u h h. Th c u h h hv h h

h. Th w h c y h h vu c. I w

PTA v . Ahuh y h c h w

c y cu, w h vh h wh cu

cc WTO X v h EU h U.S..

Th cu h c PTA v y h h vu c.

Th u u h WTO X v y w cc . Th, I w cu

6 Uucu vw wh EFTA Gv 3 My 3 Ju 2010 Sw c B

19 My 2010.


23/36


h h WTO X u. F h U.S., h y u WTO X v h

c u h v wh h EU v ( h H . 2010). Th

c I w Environment. Bh h U.S. h EU hv v v h

PTA wh v u ycy y y h WTO (huh u cv u cc v u). H, Mv

S quy v v WTO X u (2010).

Th u h c h c y u U.S. EU PTA, cvy. Th w w

c h vu v h uy u c-c h

. Th w qu An-Corrupon Measures, whch uqu U.S. PTA

Cultural Cooperaon, whch c y u EU . Bh u cy h

WTO hc h WTO X cy (A 2001; H . 2010).

I yz h c , I w u quv xy w y quv

y. I w y uh quc v u h v EU U.S.

PTA. Mhcy, h ch x h vu y. Th (qu-

v) u h z h cc v. I u u h wu v

c h c uch cuy vw. I c , I w u h cu c v-

v. Fy, I w h y -cu v U.S. PTA

v cuu c EU .

I h y h u vuy, u h I w cu y -

h w y h EU h U.S. ( h x u h u h

h y). I , I cu 37 PTA. 13 w y h U.S. 24 y h EU. Thy ch

v 1963 2012 (1963 2010 h EU 1985 2012 h U.S.), u

h w h c h 21 cuy. Th ccuy c h h

y h (Aw 2013: 90). 12 u 13 U.S. c cc v-

v 13 u 24 EU w. S h y v-

uy h u PTA cu h uy (y h U.S. wh I 1985

w Tuy h EU 1963) h cu h hc.

Ahuh hy h WTO PTA, I cu h vu y

h EU v huh h uch c u h h -

PTA. I xcu NAFTA cu (1994) uch chv c.

I w c h v v EU U.S. PTA h c v, w c y

. Fu 11 Fu 12 hw h h (u w) h v-

c . Lh xy y ycy h w u

v wh h u w uuy vy . Th w c y h -h

y h w w ch v. I c cuc z u -

v h h h huh uch wh cu u c, , h cu

h c h v. I wu y h h h cv v

w h h h , u h h h wy u. Ev h

cu h , h ch whch h cu h uy. Sc,


24/36


h -h y h cu x w hw - . S h

u- u. Th, w w , h y u whch w h quv y

h EU v (u h c c ). Hwv, c h c u

h c, v qu w u h EU , h cu c, wh uy ch h u.

Wh h EU uc v qu cy h h cc, h U.S.

hv y x h c v h y. A cu u h h EU u

h v w 2000 2005 h (wh h xc u)

u h. Hwv, h u vy cvc v w y h EU

u h whu y v v. Ay, h u c h U.S.

vy h uh vu ch c y cv . A h

, h v v hw h h U.S. cy w hw uuy

c. I h U.S. , h vv v vy , c Dv

u (Dv 2009: 27).

I c h , uu cy h ch v , c

wh h c. I hy c cc y c

c u c-cu chy. A hv wy vy x h

cyc. A c cc c c y v h h u

uch. I u h c h v c hw h

h vv c u h y .

Figure 11: Size of Environmental Provisions in EU PTAs

!"

#!!"

$!!"

%!!"

&!!"

'!!!"

'#!!"

'$!!"

'(($" '((%" '((&" #!!!" #!!#" #!!$" #!!%" #!!&" #!'!" #!'#"

!"#!$%&'($)*$+#,'(%&-($-#&$#,./-#

Suc: uh w ch.


25/36


Figure 12: Size of Environmental Provisions in U.S. PTAs

!"

#!!!"

$!!!"

%!!!"

&!!!"

'!!!"

(!!!"

)!!!"

*!!!"

$!!!" $!!$" $!!&" $!!(" $!!*" $!#!" $!#$" $!#&"

!"#$%&'()%*+%,#-()&'.)%.#'%#-/0.#

Suc: uh w ch.

Wh h v v h EU, h h uh y c.

Wh xc, h v qu c. Thy c -

cc v qu , u v v ch h v ccy.

Chcy, h cy c . Th u cv (.., w -

, uc y c.) w c c. Th c h c

u, u yc wy v . S h c h

. Oy h h Fu h C Gu Ac, C Pcc S

(CARIFORUM ), c c u, cu v c

(h 2008 u). I h , h v v . Th EU w

c y c ch. A c h wh M E Nh Ac

cu hw y v, x. Hwv, v h -c v. A ,

w cu u h cc h EU, h h , u h v

- vy c-y-c .

I U.S. vy w ch v v w u u h

wh S 2004. M ch c cc. Thy h hv ,

u wu y c y wy h c w uy wh-

h c v (.., c v wh u h h h v

c jcv, cvy). I h S , w uh w

: Iu A, Ou Puc Pc, Ev C

Cu. M h uqu . I ,


26/36


v c w , h vu ( u ),

u . I 2009, h wh h xv v cu w

wh Pu. I cu h c v cuc, h cu vy

x x. Tw y c (xc h c) wh C Pw 2011, wh h c u (wh Suh K) hy

w v h.

Th S h c c h U.S. PTA. I w c

uu w h w (uh vw

Wh DC 2009;7 Wu 2004: 89). A c v y u WTO X v h U.S.

, cy cc h v. I 2007, c w vc h U.S. C

wh h -c My 10 c (USTR 2007) wh xc x u h

C uc h prima facie - u hw h

( h ) w x. Wh h Dc v c C

2007, h Buh w c v h w uch cc w

h h vu . I c, h c v FTA cu y (D

2007: 2). Fu h wh h USTR u, u h My 10 . Wh h

c, v v w uc

(y h wh Suh K, C P, whch w h ).

Acc h Nw Y T (2007), c Wh c h h c [...]

cu , cu ww cc. Th My 10 A

h c uu, c u. Th Ch S PTA y w h uc-

- u h v cy. A Wu u, h c h cy

h c - u U.S. , hy h w -

(Wu 2004: 90).

Wh uy v v h c u. Th uy

h u v qu (, .., Mcu 2001 -c Mu

Ev A (MEA)). Th, I WTO X c h uqu ch h

w c. Th y c h U.S. w u -cu v. Th v

c u EU (H . 2010). Thy h WTO cu w (A

2001). Ty, h U.S. w v c h h uh -cu

u u h 1990 , v, h c h y c c

h U.S. c h 1970. A-cu WTO X c h cv ycy y h U.S.,

u y h EU PTA (H . 2010:1578). 10 u h 13 U.S. cu h

y c cc ch h -cu u. Th y h

w h wh I 1985 c c, cu c h x

y 30 y.

7 Uucu vw wh US Wh DC, 4 Nv 2009.


27/36


Figure 13: Size of An-Corrupon Provisions in U.S. PTAs

!"

#!!"

$!!"

%!!"

&!!"

'!!"

(!!"

)!!"

$!!!" $!!$" $!!&" $!!(" $!!*" $!#!" $!#$" $!#&"

!"#$%&&'()%*#+&%,-.%*.#-*#+/0.#

Suc: uh w ch.

A, I w y h v c v y c h h h v-

qu. C wh h vu w h -cu v h

PTA wh S. A wh Ch h c c h y (2004) c

uch v. Hwv, 2006, h h h -cu v ju u v wh

h uqu y. I wh h h c h

v, w z h cu w.

Wh c c, h -cu v h -2006 U.S. vy

vu. Thy c c h c. Th w h h

uc 2006 w c u, wh u wh ccuc c-

cu. I c h u c juc u. O h, c

h h y . F 2006 w, h ch

x wh I vuy c c cc. Th -

, x, c .

T cuc h y u h uqu EU PTA, I w v cuu

c. Th u c y h wh h w


28/36


.8 Th WTO X c h cv y U.S. PTA h

u EU PTA, u h u h v . Fu 12 hw EU

v v, cy, h c y . Th c

y h h 2005 cu v cuu c.

Figure 14: Size of An-Corrupon Provisions in U.S. PTAs

!"

#!"

$!!"

$#!"

%!!"

%#!"

&!!"

!"

'!!"

$(('" $(()" $((*" %!!!" %!!%" %!!'" %!!)" %!!*" %!$!" %!$%"

!"#$%&'%()$**+,()-*.#/(*012*.2#1.#/342#

Suc: uh w ch.

I w h cu v, h vu uc h EU. Th v

. O h h v v vu cy

ch c. S c cuu c cu uvu ,

hy . S c vy whu c (.., I P) -

hc u hv cuu c cu u u c c (.., Nh Ac, B).

I h , hy cc u cu. I , h cu

vy c, c c u x c

yc u.

F h uy h h WTO X (Ev, A-Cu Cuu C), -

h h hw u vcy v v .

Th h Eu wy: EU v - . I x

8 Cuu c EU PTA vy v. Thy hu cu wh v

c u-vu cuu .


29/36


, wh cc u cu. Th U.S., h h h, w .

Hwv, h vy x h w wy hw h ch vv.

I v v hv ch cy w cy (.., ,

u h vu ). F h -cu v, h h h, ch h- uvy . I h h U.S., v h xc

y v w h c uqu .

I hu quy hz h I c h EU v

, u h c c v u cu. Gz, hwv,

cu cu h u c.

6. Cncuin

Th ccu h w . I h , I w uz h u h vu c

v vvw h vu u h ch cx. I h

c , I w cu u x, hw c c x, wh w hv

u h u wh h uu ch h

c PTA.

Th vu ch I hv u w h h c wy v PTA vv

u. F, h h c w WTO X u WTO Pu u. Thy -

PTA wy h cu ujc . Th u

WTO X WTO Pu v c u. I u h h WTO

h vu w . Sc, PTA, h h h, y

z w , wh wu hv z wh h WTO. Th EU h

U.S. ch WTO X WTO Pu v y. Th u y cc H,

Mv S (2010). Th, w h cu h ch u

c (.., hz u ), hwv, u h h u h w h

. I h u c c h EU h h U.S. Fuh,

h v yz h w vuv h vc u (..,

y c ) . Wh h EU h c y c ch, h U.S.

yc. Ev v w uy z x wh -cu v

ju hc v. Fh, h c h h U.S. u wh

wy , h cy ch v . Th uz T 2.

Equy h c h h h cc c y H,

Mv S (2010). Th h c uu y x h c -

w h U.S. h EU. A uh u, h U.S. u u h u

WTO Pu u h EU. Hwv, h cy u WTO X v h h EU PTA

(huh h cc cv w). O x h h u

U.S. y c h hy y u, v hy

cy cu cc c h u. I h h c, hy wu hw u u

y, u quv y Mv h y. Th wu


30/36


Th v whch u hw uc. T y cu v -

. Th c h PTA v EFTA h EU .

Hwv, v h vc vy . F h U.S., Ch Mxc, h u

uu. WTO X v y y. A, h u, w wu xc h uv WTO Pu v uch c y.

Mv, h w y wh h WTO, y cu

chc qu h (h Pu ). Tc y vv w

, u h x whch h h c v uh.

Th h h hw h v vv. Thy

c h h vc , u h h qu u. Th h cv

u (U.S. v), ju (U.S. -cu) c y c (EU v-

cuu c). Th c y chc -h c

h v. Fuh ch cu h. O cu

h h EU vu h . Th w

u h uc h , h h h . Th

U.S. h uu uch y. Th c w w h wy -cu

v v v u h h U.S. x uc (-

cu wu h U.S. w c, v uch z).

L u , h cuy h U.S. vy x PTA v

h c h ju w . Th h h h

hv h ycy . Th u h uc v wh

c c w c.

Th u z cxc PTA c hwy. Th u

h . I hw h h h y. D c wh ch

u . Pw c y x h v.

Th c h ccu c. Mwh, h y cu c

cx z.


31/36


Table 2 Summary of Findings

Eun Unin United States

WTO X U , u y (quv H .

2010)

U hy h U.S.

(quv uh

w )

Fw v (quv H . 2010)

M WTO X v h EU

(quv uh

w )

Trend WTO X Ic Auu/A

Rgin WTO X

(hizn)

EU u EFTA Auu U.S. u

Ac/N u

WTO Pu (vc) U h U.S. (quv

H . 2010)

U hy h U.S.

U (quv

H . 2010)

U hy h U.S.

Tn WTO Pu (vc) Auu No

Rgin WTO Pu

(hizn)

Auu No

Inn cnincy (vc) Lw Hh

Ov vun (vc) R y Sy, c

Envinn (vc) Evy c Ex , c

An-cun (vc) N v Ex , c

Cuu cn (vc) Evy c N v

Suc: uh w ch.


32/36


Bibighy

Abo, Kenneth W. 2001: Ru-M h WTO: L h C By Cu, :

Ju I Ecc Lw 4/2, 275296.

Aggarwal, Vinod K. 2013: U.S. , : I N 18/ 2013,

89110.

Arbia, Ali2011: Th N-Ov M T - Lz P T A

h WTO, PhD h, Gv: Gu Iu I Dv Su-

.

Augier, Patricia/Gasiorek, Michael/Lai-Tong, Charles 2005: Th c u w, :

Ecc Pcy 20/43, 567624.

Bhagwa, Jagdish 1996: P T A: Th W R (Syu: F T A:

Th Ch P F v. F T), : Lw Pcy I Bu

27/4, 865871.

Bhagwa, Jagdish/Panagariya, Arvind1996: Th Thy P T A: Hc Ev-u Cu T, : Th Ac Ecc Rvw 86/2, 8287.

Bhagwa, Jagdish 1991: Th W T Sy R. Pc Uvy P, Nw Jy.

Baldwin, Richard E./Jaimovich, Dany 2010: A F T A Cu?, : NBER W

P 16084, Ju 2010, C: N Buu Ecc Rch.

Baldwin, Richard E./Thornton, Phil 2008: Mu R - I WTO Ac P

R, Gv: C Ecc Pcy Rch.

Baldwin, Richard E. 1993: A D Thy R, :. CEPR W P 857, S 1993,

Gv: C Ecc Pcy Rch.

Baldwin, Richard E. 1997: Th Cu R, : CEPR Dcu P 1599, Mch 1997, G-

v: C Ecc Pcy Rch.

Baldwin, Richard E. 2006: Mu R: Sh Bw Bu Bc h Ph

G F T, : Th W Ecy 29/11, 14511518.

Bergoeing, Raphael/Kehoe, Patrick J./ Kehoe, Timothy J./Soto, Raimundo 2001: A c u:

Mxc Ch h 1980, : NBER W P 8520, Oc 2001, C: N

Buu Ecc Rch.

Bhagwa, Jagdish/Greenaway, David/Panagariya, Arvind1998: T Py: Thy Pcy,

: Th Ecc Ju 108/449, 11281148.

Brzel, Tanja A./Risse, Thomas 2009: Th Eu U h Du I, : KFG W

P S 1, My 2009, F Uv B: K-Fchu Th Tv

Pw Eu.Davis, Chrisna L. 2009: Ov Iu T Pcy, : Pcv Pc 7/01, 2531.

Destler, I. M. (Mac) 2007: Ac T Pc 2007: Bu B C, : Pcy B

PB07-5, Wh, DC: P Iu I Ecc.

Drezner, Daniel W. 2001: Gz Pcy Cvc, : I Su Rvw 3/1, 53

78.

Dz, D. W. 2009: Th Pw P I R Cxy. Pcv Pc 7/

01, 6570.

Dupont, Cdric/Huang, David2008: C h PTA W,: Ech, By J./P, Yu Chu/

Wyz, Ch (): Ch, A, h Nw W Ecy, Ox: Ox Uvy P,

113144.Elkins, Zachary/Simmons, Beth A. 2004: Th Gz Lz: Pcy Du h I-

Pc Ecy, : Th Ac Pc Scc Rvw 98/1, 171189.


33/36


Elkins, Zachary/Simmons, Beth A. 2005: O Wv, Cu, Du: A Ccu Fw, :

Th A h Ac Acy Pc Sc Scc 598/1, 3351.

Elsig, Manfred2007: D cy u cy-: B Bu c , : Eu-

U Su Ac (EUSA), 10h B Cc, 17-19 My 2007, M,

C.

Elsig, Manfred 2007: Th EU Chc Ruy Vu T N: A T Acy

Pw?, : JCMS: Ju C M Su 45/4, 927948.

Evene, Simon J. 2007: Th T Sy h Eu U: T Rh, : CEPR Dcu

P 6283, My 2007, Gv: C Ecc Pcy Rch.

Fiorenno, Roberto V./Verdeja, Luis/Toqueboeuf, Christelle 2007: Th ch Lc R

T A: 2006 U, : WTO Dcu P 12,, T Pcy Rvw Dv/

R T A Sc, Gv: W T Oz.

Fischer, Ronald/Meller, Patricio 1999: L Ac T R R Pc, : W

P 65, Dcu Tj, S Ec, S: C Ec Ac.

Horn, Henrik/Mavroidis, Petros C./Sapir, Andre 2010: By h WTO? A Ay EU U.S. P- T A, : Th W Ecy 33/11, 15651588.

Hicks, Raymond/Kim, Soo Yeon 2012: Rcc A: C c

z ? I: Ju E A Su 12/1, 129.

Manger, Mark S. 2009: Iv Pc - Th Pc P T A w

Nh Suh, C: C Uvy P.

Marceau, Gabrielle 2001: Cc N Cc Juc - Th Rh w h

WTO A MEA h T, : Ju W T 35/6, 10811131.

Meunier, Sophie 2007: M Gz? Th EU I T N, : Ju

C M Su 45/4, 905926.

Nakagawa, Junji 2009: Cv R huh B R Ru-M: SS Lc-, : S, My/S, B/K, S N. (): Cv

R - FTA Du h Pcc R, B: Pv Mc, 7496.

New York Times 2007: Buh Dc Acc T D, 11 My 2007.

Oce of the United States Trade Representave (USTR) 2007: B T D My - 10 C

Fc Sh, Wh, D.C.: Oc h U S T Rv.

Ravenhill, John 2010: Th Nw E A R: A c c, : Rvw I-

Pc Ecy 17/2, 178208.

Sez, Sebasn 2005: I cy L Ac: h c Ch Mxc, Nw

Y: U N Puc.

Simmons, Beth A./Dobbin, Frank/Garre, Georey2006: Iuc: Th u -, : I Oz 60/4, 781810.

Strang, David/Meyer, John W. 1993: Iu c u, : Thy Scy 22/4,

487511.

United Naons Development Programme 2007: T Fc By h Mu T N- -

: R Pcc, Cu Vu Oh E Iu - A uy y h A-

Pcc Rch T Nw T, A-Pcc Rch T Nw

T.

Weintraub, Sidney2004: L h Ch S F T A, : Sch, Jy

(.): F T A: US S P (Iu I Ecc

Sc R), Wh, D.C.: P Iu I Ecc, 7992.

World Trade Organizaon 2010: R T A I Sy RTA-IS, : h://.

w./UI/PucMRTAH.x, Fuy 2010.


34/36


Anix: Agn

Ch Au 06 M 2009

Ch Pu 01 Ju 1998

Ch Mcu 01 Oc 1996

Ch C Ac 15 F 2002

Ch K 01 A 2004

Ch C 05 Ju 1997

Ch Mxc 01 Au 1999

Ch C Rc 15 F 2002

Ch E Sv 01 Ju 2002

Ch Ch 01 Oc 2006

Ch J 03 S 2007

Ch P 07 M 2008

Ch C 08 My 2009

EU OCT 01 J 1971

EU S 08 J 2010

EU S M 10 M 2006

EU Sy A Ruc 01 Ju 1977

EU A 01 Ju 1991

EU Tuy 01 J 1996

EU F I 01 J 1997

EU P Auhy 01 Ju 1997

EU Tu 01 M 1998

EU Suh Ac 01 J 2000

EU Mcc 01 M 2000

EU I 01 Ju 2000

EU Mxc 01 Ju 2000

EU Mc, FYR 01 Ju 2001

EU C 01 M 2002

EU J 01 My 2002

EU Ch 01 F 2003

EU L 01 M 2003

EU Ey, A R. 01 Ju 2004

EU Ch 01 M 2005

EU A 01 S 2005

EU A 01 Dc 2006

EU C Iv 01 J 2009

EU C 01 Oc 2009

EU M 01 J 2008

EU B Hzv 01 Ju 2008

EU CARIFORUM 01 Nv 2008

EFTA C 01 Ju 2009

EFTA Tuy 01 A 1992

EFTA I 01 J 1993

EFTA P Auhy 01 Ju 1999

EFTA Mcc 01 Dc 1999


35/36


EFTA Mxc 01 Ju 2000

EFTA Mc, FYR 01 J 2001

EFTA C 01 J 2002

EFTA J 01 J 2002

EFTA S 01 J 2003

EFTA Ch 01 Dc 2004

EFTA Tu 01 Ju 2005

EFTA K, R. 01 S 2006

EFTA L 01 J 2007

EFTA Ey, A R. 01 Au 2007

EFTA SACU 01 My 2008

Mxc Ncu 01 Ju 1998

Mxc Bv 07 Ju 2010

Mxc Cu 15 Au 2011Mxc C Rc 01 J 1995

Mxc E Sv/Gu 15 M/01 Ju 2001

Mxc I 01 Ju 2000

Mxc J 01 A 2005

Mxc Uuuy 15 Ju 2004

U S I 19 Au 1985

U S J 17 Dc 2001

U S Ch 01 J 2004

U S S 01 J 2004

U S Au 01 J 2005

U S Mcc 01 J 2006

U S Bh 01 Au 2006

U S O 01 J 2009

U S Pu 01 F 2009

U S CAFTA 01 M 2006 (+)

U S K 15 M 2012

U S P 31 Oc 2012

Suc: uh w ch.


36/36

Th Kg-Fchgu - Encuging Acic Exchng n

Inniv Rch

Th K-Fchu (KFG) w u u-

ch y h G Rch Fu 2008. I c-

c h KFG v ccy u v

whch vv ch c c wh y cu wh u ju ch.

Th K-Fchu Th Tv Pw Eu

h ch Eu h B-B-

u uz h c wh h uv-

ch u. I x h h EU -

c , yz h ch c

x u c h ch :

Iy h Puc Sh

Cc, Cy By

Cv R Eu Ex R

Templates for Trade. Change, Persistence and Path Dependence in U. S. and EU Preferential Trade...

Documents

Transcript of Templates for Trade. Change, Persistence and Path Dependence in U. S. and EU Preferential Trade...