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Understanding Complexity

Making effective risk decisions in different contexts.

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This information is exempt under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA) and may be exempt under other UK information legislation. Refer any FOIA queries to ncscinfoleg@ncsc.gov.uk

Why do we need something different?

• Increasingly complex systems, bring new risk management challenges

• Known, unknowns, unknowables….

• We need different ways of approaching decisions, depending on the situation

• Many more decision makers

This information is exempt under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA) and may be exempt under other UK information legislation. Refer any FOIA queries to ncscinfoleg@ncsc.gov.uk

This information is exempt under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA) and may be exempt under other UK information legislation. Refer any FOIA queries to ncscinfoleg@ncsc.gov.uk

This information is exempt under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA) and may be exempt under other UK information legislation. Refer any FOIA queries to ncscinfoleg@ncsc.gov.uk

This information is exempt under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA) and may be exempt under other UK information legislation. Refer any FOIA queries to ncscinfoleg@ncsc.gov.uk

This information is exempt under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA) and may be exempt under other UK information legislation. Refer any FOIA queries to ncscinfoleg@ncsc.gov.uk

This information is exempt under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA) and may be exempt under other UK information legislation. Refer any FOIA queries to ncscinfoleg@ncsc.gov.uk

Fundamental Properties of a Complex System…

• Self-organisation• Interactions are non-linear• Behaviour as a collective• Causality is complex and networked• Adaptive interaction• Emergence• Patterns and trends, but predictability reduced• Fat tailed/ power law behaviour• Number of plausible options

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Sense-making

Giving meaning to experience

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“How do we make sense of the world so that we can act in it?” David Snowden, Cognitive Edge

“The process of creating situational awareness and understanding in situations of high complexity or uncertainty in order to make decisions” Gary Klein, Klein Associates

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The Cynefin Framework

A sense-making model

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Origins...

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This information is exempt under the Freedom of Information Act 2000 (FOIA) and may be exempt under other UK information legislation. Refer any FOIA queries to ncscinfoleg@ncsc.gov.uk

Dealing with Complexity....

Hindsight does not lead to foresightShift from fail-safe design to safe-fail experiments

Meaning emerges through interactionHighly sensitive to small changes

Action:What can I change?

Where can I monitor the effect of change?Where can I amplify success or dampen failure?

Avoid:Premature convergence on a solution

Pattern entrainmentConfusing correlation with causationConfusing simulation with prediction

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It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’tso.

Attributed to Mark Twain