TEFAF presentation 2012

16th March, 2012

Dr. Clare Mc Andrew

ARTS ECONOMICS

[email protected]

©Arts Economics 2012©Arts Economics 2012

The Global Art Market

©Arts Economics 2012

• Analysis of the market in 2011

• Trends in the market over 25 years

• Impact and outlook

Value and Volume of Sales


€18.6

€48.1

€28.3

€43.0€46.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

€0

€10

€20

€30

€40

€50

€60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

VALUE (€bn) VOLUME (m)

Fine Art Top Prices in 2011

Roy Lichtenstein

8/11/11

Christie’s (Paris)

€45 million

Clyfford Still

9/11/11

Sotheby’s (New York)

€45 million

Qi Bashi

22/5/11

China Guardian

(Beijing)

€46 million

Francesco Guardi

6/7/11

Sotheby’s (New

York) €30 million

Wang Meng

4/6/11

Poly International (Beijing)

€43 million


Paul Cezanne

Summer 2011

UNCONFIRMED

Private Sale

$250+ million USD

Fine Art Auction Market 2011

©Arts Economics

2012

Over €500,000

1%

€50,000 to €500,000

6%Less than €50,000

93%

Share of Lots Sold

Over €500,000

50%

€50,000 to €500,000

31%

Less than €50,000

19%

Share of Sales Value

Dealer Market 2011

©Arts Economics

2012

Over €500,0003%

€50,000 to €500,000

17%

Less than €50,000

80%

Global Market Share 2011


China 30%

US 29%

UK 22%

Others 10%

France 6%

Switzerland 3%

Global Market Share 2006

US 46%

UK 27%

Others 16%

France 6%

China 5%


€691€1,516 €1,560

€2,012 €2,152 €2,151

€5,962

€9,808

€0

€2,000

€4,000

€6,000

€8,000

€10,000

€12,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Chinese Auction

Sales


Chinese Auction Transactions


99,797 112,616 108,923 127,851 117,992 138,304

219,252

284,941

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Lots Offered Lots Sold

Buy-ins

Chinese Art Market:

Risk Factors


• Regional buyer base

• Auction dominated

• Issues in legal and regulatory framework

• Some shortage of expertise

• Non and late payment at auction

• Potential credit crunch and lack of liquidity

Ink Horse Painting

Xu Beihong

The Global Contemporary

Sector


€91.7 €84.7

€172.5

€219.8

€433.7

€871.3€914.9

€312.7

€580.0

€944.8

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

€0

€200

€400

€600

€800

€1,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mill

ion

Eu

ro

Value Volume

The Modern Sector


€1,337€1,106

€1,506

€1,884

€2,918

€3,838

€3,125

€1,719

€3,531

€5,674

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

€0

€1,000

€2,000

€3,000

€4,000

€5,000

€6,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Mill

ion

Eu

ro

Value Volume

Old Masters Market Share

©Arts Economics

2012

China 53%UK 16%

US 16%

France 4%

Switzerland 3%

Others 9%

VALUE

US 18%

China 18%

UK 15%France

12%

Germany 10%

Others 27%

VOLUME

Key Trends Over 25 Years


• Massive increase in size of sales (volume and value)• Globalisation of supply and demand• Growth of internet • Changing infrastructure of the art trade• Event-driven market and growth of art fairs• Changing tastes (rise of Contemporary/ decline older sectors)• Rise of art as investment• Competition for supply• Increased burden of regulation

Global Sales 1990-2011


$27.2

$9.7

$14.3

$19.9

$65.8

$39.4

$64.1

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bill

ion

USD

Growth of the Internet


• Integral communication and marketing device for the trade

• Increased transparency

• Lower margins

• Online sales remain low

• More information but still more expertise required

Changes in the Structure of the

Trade


•Growth of auction houses as retailers and increases in private sales

•Fairs and the event-driven market

• Retail gallery in decline

•Rise of the art consultant

•The artist as a market force

© Bob and Roberta Smith, Save the Arts

Outlook

• Art market makes large economic contribution- over 403,000 global businesses

• Supported 2.4 million jobs in 2011

• Ancillary industry spending of over €11.5 billion

• Globalisation, information distribution and patterns of wealth shaping market in 2012

• Continued economic uncertainty:

➥Art as a valid alternative investment - increased demand

➥Lack of alternatives to art - reduced supply


www.artseconomics.com


TEFAF presentation 2012

Technology

Transcript of TEFAF presentation 2012