© 2007 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.

Tectonic Shifts in the Geography of R&DTectonic Shifts in the Geography of R&DThe Next Fifty YearsThe Next Fifty Years

Anthony Townsend I Research Director, Technology Horizons Program

INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE

International Association of Science Parks

Barcelona, Spain

July 2-4, 2007

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Institute for the Future:A Silicon Valley perspective

Institute for the Future:A Silicon Valley perspective

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The Delta Scan:A 50-year forecast of science & technology trends

The Delta Scan:A 50-year forecast of science & technology trends

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Tectonic shifts in R&D:3 big trends shaping the next 50 years

Tectonic shifts in R&D:3 big trends shaping the next 50 years

1. Globalization of R&D

2. Explosion of new R&D forms

3. Science returns to the city

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Globalization of R&D:Rise of China and India

Globalization of R&D:Rise of China and India

“A 2006 survey of 186 of the world's biggest corporations found that 77% of new R&D centers over the next three years will go up in one of these two emerging economic superpowers.”

BusinessWeek10 May 2006

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Rise of China and India:Drivers

Rise of China and India:Drivers

Reason #1: Localizing R&D Close to emerging markets Close to manufacturing

Reason #2: Lower costs

Reason #3: Future Innovation From “brain drain” to “brain circulation”

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Globalization of R&D:Small science powersGlobalization of R&D:Small science powers

As China and India take on the West, smaller countries will develop specialized R&D niches.

In biomedical industry:

Singapore: pharmaceuticals

Israel: medical devices

Iceland: genetics

South Korea: bioengineering

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Globalization of R&D: “embedded innovation” at Procter & GambleGlobalization of R&D: “embedded innovation” at Procter & Gamble

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Explosion of New R&D Forms:The corporate side

Explosion of New R&D Forms:The corporate side

From…

Corporate R&D internal centralized

To…

Embedded, distributed labs

Venture funds & start-ups

Spin-offs

Knowledge spot markets

Contract labs

Independent labs

IP shops

And beyond…

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Explosion of New R&D Forms:democratized and distributed innovation

Explosion of New R&D Forms:democratized and distributed innovation

Democratized forms

Open science and knowledge commons

Amateur renaissance

DIY movement - open source for hardware

Distributed tools

Desktop supercomputing

Desktop fabrication

Backyard biology

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Science Returns to the City:Cities are More Innovative

Science Returns to the City:Cities are More Innovative

Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities. Luis M. A. Bettencourt, Jose Lobo, Dirk Helbing, Christian Kuhnert, and Geoffrey B. West. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 16 April 2007.

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Science Returns to the City:New places for R&D

Science Returns to the City:New places for R&D

Biopolis | JTC

University Park @ MIT | Forest City

Genentech Hall | UCSF

East River Science Park | Alexandria

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“Urban” Cross-Roads:Nexus at Stanford’s Bio-X

“Urban” Cross-Roads:Nexus at Stanford’s Bio-X

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“tribal” labs:MIT’s Stata

Center

“tribal” labs:MIT’s Stata

Center

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Science Returns to the City:Smart Environments for Social Collaboration

Science Returns to the City:Smart Environments for Social Collaboration

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What Does This Mean for Science Parks?What Does This Mean for Science Parks?

Three questions for you:

How will you connect to global innovation networks?

How will you accommodate and enable new forms of R&D?

How will you create more places for casual encounters and digitally-enhanced collaboration?

© 2007 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved.

blog future.iftf.orgcorporate www.iftf.org

50yr S&T scan www.deltascan.org

blog future.iftf.orgcorporate www.iftf.org

50yr S&T scan www.deltascan.org