TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index March 2012

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand IndexMarch 2012

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TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 2

About Us

TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is a full-service Market Research consultancy that helps businesses identify, develop and capitalize on growth opportunities. Spotting trends and synthesizing insights that are well-defined, accurate, and forward-thinking is our passion. Research is the foundation for all our endeavors.

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In 1996, TechnoMetrica founded TIPP – the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics. Shortly thereafter, TIPP joined forces with Investor’s Business Daily (1996 to present) – the nation’s fastest-growing financial publication – and with the Pulitzer Prize-winning Christian Science Monitor (1998 to present).


Table Of Contents

I. Methodology 4-5

II. Auto Demand Index 6-15A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)B. By RegionC. By Area TypeD. By AgeE. By Gender/Marital StatusF. By Parental Status and Race/EthnicityG. By Household Income

III. Demand For New Autos 16-22A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: OverallB. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over TimeC. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameD. Vehicle Types MomentumE. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA

IV. Brand Preferences 23-29A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMAB. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)

V. Contact Information 30

I. Methodology


Methodology TechnoMetrica’s Auto Demand Index is an early (monthly) indicator of consumers’ intent

to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The index has been set to an initial value of 100 based on demand levels between February 2007 and April 2007.

The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question: – How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say

very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?

We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of the percentage of consumers who are either “very” or “somewhat” likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months.

Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease new automobiles.

The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles, which consists of over 100 million U.S. households with drivers.

Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to collect the survey data, with a sample size of 900+ respondents.

A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)B. By RegionC. By Area TypeD. By AgeE. By Gender and Marital StatusF. By Parental Status and Race/EthnicityG. By Household Income

II. Auto Demand Index, Purchase Outlook


Auto Demand Index (Overall)The TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index nosedived by 49 points, or 48%, in March posting its all time low 49 vs. 94 in February and 105 in January.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mar

-10

Apr-

10

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-

11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Auto Demand Index 3SMA

High Low

2007 129 79

2008 92 66

2009 95 55

2010 97 56

2011 94 49

2012 105 49

Base = All Respondents

In March, the TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index decreased significantly, going from 94 in February to 49 this month.

3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average


Auto Demand Index Moving Averages

Base = All Respondents

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Mar

-10

Apr-

10

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-

11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

3SMA 6SMA 12SMA3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average

6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average

12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average


-20

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence

3 Month SMA (Fast Average) Vs 12 Month SMA (Slow Average) Base = All Respondents

The momentum turned positive in November 2011 and since then increased steadily reaching an all-time high in February 2012, but fell in March.


By Region 3 SMABase = All Respondents

Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?

6866

75 79102 111 100

0255075

100125150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

South

6778 75 80

84 91

83

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Northeast

56 44 50

72 7787

68

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Midwest

68 6578

5260 66 68

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

West12 SMA = 64

12 SMA = 75

12 SMA = 6612 SMA = 76


By Area Type 3 SMABase = All Respondents


63 6978

85 89105

91

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Suburban

71 72 77 7183 88 86

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Urban

5844 53

60

81 8677

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Rural

12 SMA = 75

12 SMA = 62

12 SMA = 76


By Age 3 SMABase = All Respondents


145134

110

6890

120129

0255075

100125150175200

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

18-24

50 56 65 69 70 72 67

0255075

100125150175200

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

45-64

7163

7895

119131

110

0255075

100125150175200

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

25-44

36 32 35 31 37 41 37

0255075

100125150175200

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

65+

12 SMA = 114

12 SMA = 3612 SMA = 60

12 SMA = 88


By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMABase = All Respondents


72 75 78 8297

10997

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Male

5852

62 6272 77 70

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Female

57 65 7482

95106

91

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Married

7860 63 56

70 74 72

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Single

12 SMA = 80

12 SMA = 6612 SMA = 75

12 SMA = 62


By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMABase = All Respondents


87 91 95 88101

116 109

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Parents

54 48 5764

78 83 72

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Non-Parents

7659

7694

134 140

111

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Black/Hispanic

56 58 62 63 71 7569

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

White

12 SMA = 91

12 SMA = 64

12 SMA = 84

12 SMA = 61


By Household Income 3 SMABase = All Respondents


7088 95

107 110 119102

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

100K+

7758 61

70 79 73 67

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

50K-100K

43 4253

6176 74 77

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

30K-50K

7356 63

51

82

10493

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Under 30K

12 SMA = 66

12 SMA = 89

12 SMA = 70

12 SMA = 63

A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: OverallB. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over TimeC. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameD. Vehicle Types MomentumE. Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMA

III. Demand For New Autos


Vehicle Purchase PlansBase = All Respondents

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Mar

-10

Apr-

10

May

-10

Jun-

10

Jul-1

0

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

Mar

-11

Apr-

11

May

-11

Jun-

11

Jul-1

1

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Likely 3 month SMA

March 2012

Likely8%

Not Likely92%

In March, the share of Americans who said they were likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle in the next six months was 8%.

Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 MonthsBetween 4 and 6 Months Not sure

Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time FrameMarch 2012 Base = Potential Customers

This month, 9% of likely vehicle buyers say they will purchase or lease a new vehicle within one month, while 29% say they will do so within 2 to 3 months, while most (61%) are planning to do so further out (within 4 to 6 months).

Q. Will you make your purchase within the next 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months?

Within 1 Month

9%

Between 2 & 3 Months

29%

Between 4 & 6 Months

61%

Not Sure1%

In March, the percentage of likely vehicle buyers within one month decreased to 9%.


Negative Change No Change Positive Change

31%

13%

7% 8%6%

8%10%

13%

29%

12%

6% 8%6%

11% 11%

14%

Mid-size Small SUV Minivan Large SUV Sub-compact or Mini

Full-size Pickup Compact

12 Month Average 6 Month Average

Vehicle Type MomentumMarch 2012 Base = Potential Customers

Q. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease?


10% 9% 8% 8%11%

14%19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Compact

Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time - 3 SMABase = Potential Customers

8%

14% 12%7%

2%4% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Subcompact/Mini

35%33% 32% 34% 31% 29%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Mid-Sized

6%7% 9%

13% 14% 15%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Full-Sized


Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMABase = Potential Customers

10% 9%12%

9% 9%

4% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Minivan

11% 9% 9% 10% 12%9% 11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Pickup Truck

11%8% 9% 9%

11% 12% 14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Small SUV

8%9% 8% 7%

6% 6% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Large SUV

A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would BuyB. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)

IV. Brand Preferences


19%

12% 11%

8%

4% 5%

2% 3% 2% 2%

18%

14%

10% 10%

5% 4%2% 3% 2% 2%

Ford Chevrolet Toyota Honda GMC Nissan Chrysler Hyundai Dodge Subaru


Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy TodayMarch 2012 Base = Potential Customers


By Vehicle OriginMarch 2012 Base = All Respondents

Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?

42%

31%

6%

43%

31%

5%

American Asian European

Likely to Purchase by Make


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

European Asian American


Luxury vs. Non-LuxuryMarch 2012 Base = All Respondents

Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?

Luxury10%

Non-Luxury

79%

Not Sure11%

Luxury11%

Non-Luxury

78%

Not Sure11%

6 Month Average

12 Month Average

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Luxury Non-Luxury


Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands)Base = Potential Customers

9%10% 10% 9% 8%

11% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Toyota

18%

13%

18% 17%21%

15%19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Ford

6%8%

9%13% 12%

7% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Honda

10%11% 10%

14% 15% 16%14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Chevrolet


Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5-8)Base = Potential Customers

1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Chrysler

3% 2% 3%4% 6% 6% 7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

GMC

5% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Dodge

9%

4% 3%2% 2% 4%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Nissan


Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9-10)Base = Potential Customers

2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Subaru

2% 2% 2%3%

2% 3% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12

Hyundai


Conclusions

The Auto Demand Index tumbles as a casualty to high gasoline prices. TechnoMetrica’s research has shown high gasoline prices is the biggest wildcard car manufacturers face today.

Only 8% of Americans are considering buying a new car within the next six months, down from 16% in February.

Persisting high gasoline prices could drive down demand and add to the financial troubles of the already vulnerable auto industry. Further, a sharp slump has immense potential to affect the economy and employment significantly.

Auto manufacturers and their dealers must proactively prepare for a slowdown. Auto factories take a long time to alter production rates and no manufacturer wants to have too many cars in inventory. The same holds true for car dealers, who must finance the unsold cars in their inventory.

A rational energy policy, which acknowledges the realities of our resources, our preferences as consumers, and the realities of our environment, may be the best way to make America’s gas pains disappear.


Contact Information

To request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us.

Contact: Raghavan Mayur

Address: 70 Hilltop Road, Suite 1001Ramsey, NJ 07446

Phone: 800-328-TECH (8324)201-986-1288

Fax: 201-986-0119

Email: [email protected]

Web: www.technometrica.com

TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index March 2012

Automotive

Transcript of TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index March 2012