OECD Steel Committee Meeting, September 26, 2019, ParisGlobal Steel Demand Outlook

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Key observations:Steel demand remains resilient in the challenging environment

In 2019, downward revisions in all regions except China & CIS;contracting steel demand in many regions In developed economies, no growth or small contraction is expected; severe

contraction in Germany

Timid growth expected in the emerging world due to severe contraction in Turkey and MENA

Chinese steel demand grew strongly to enable positive growth in global steel demand

Globally shared recession in the auto industry. Significant impact is expected if US section 232 tariffs on auto were to be implemented

2020 outlook mixed across regions, but steel demand will continueto grow Strong growth expected in India, ASEAN and Brazil

China will decelerate unless massive stimulus is undertaken

Significant downside risks, but upside potentials as well

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Short Term Steel Demand Outlook(Finished steel, SRO April 2019)

1 712.1 million tonnes, 4.9%/ 2.1%* growth

1 735.0 million tonnes, 1.3% growth

1 751.6 million tonnes, 1.0% growth

2018

2019 (forecasts)

2020 (forecasts)

* World growth rates based on adjusted Chinese growth rates

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Regional steel demand outlook 2019-2020SRO April 2019

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Mt %

2018 2019 2020 18/17 19/18 20/19

World 1 712.1 1 735.0 1 751.6 4.9/ 2.1* 1.3 1.0

China 835.0 843.3 834.9 7.9/ 2.0* 1.0 -1.0

RoW 877.2 891.7 916.7 2.2 1.7 2.8

Developed 414.0 415.2 418.1 1.8 0.3 0.7

Emerging & Developing 463.2 476.5 498.6 2.5 2.9 4.6

db

20072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020

Austria4.0903.8853.1053.5103.8943.6583.5663.6063.9113.8364.0954.1504.2334.253

Belgium-Luxembourg5.6005.4004.1004.6115.0344.2484.1914.3234.3294.3864.5574.6394.7094.756

Czech Republic6.5686.5364.5065.5206.0635.8505.8656.1956.6156.6956.9007.4707.6007.800

Finland2.5412.3131.5601.4041.1161.9171.7201.7091.7091.7061.7781.8671.9151.992

France16.61915.32810.99813.06514.01312.60812.60912.52513.23213.02414.12614.08213.83213.603

Germany42.72042.36728.20536.23840.71237.49738.01339.64239.26540.45440.98040.77540.40440.981

Hungary2.6492.7301.5331.7771.8881.7061.8632.0862.3432.5382.6492.7882.8522.918

Italy35.93033.28920.07525.65226.55021.51921.90421.92824.48823.73325.09126.38426.66026.975

Netherlands5.2284.7483.0233.5184.0814.0263.7423.4633.4964.0223.9814.6504.6644.727

Poland12.05111.5178.1949.95211.02110.40610.39712.27812.57913.14813.60114.89514.76015.000

Slovak Republic2.2942.1361.3861.8001.8431.8392.0172.1412.2262.2542.4402.5132.6012.679

Slovenia1.3961.2480.8750.8830.9240.8840.8510.8011.0081.0561.1281.2601.3501.400

Spain24.50017.99711.87613.06813.11410.43310.92311.59912.70712.57612.69314.31514.68014.920

Sweden4.8564.3392.5693.6403.8923.5023.5903.3883.3743.8734.1264.0843.9213.882

United Kingdom14.31613.0337.8789.89410.2259.6479.59310.65510.49410.85510.93810.80810.93111.102

Rest of EU (28)21.69019.68711.36712.13312.62210.94311.53712.61512.69313.71213.61215.04215.06315.224

European Union (28)203.048186.553121.249146.664156.992140.683142.380148.954154.470157.870162.696169.721170.175172.211

European Union (15)167.136152.29799.519120.499128.122113.930115.184118.144122.390124.361128.312132.147132.353133.657

Turkey23.77021.45318.02623.56726.93128.46831.30130.77334.38134.07735.92630.58429.08431.411

Rest of Other Europe6.4916.2985.1395.2445.7285.5905.6056.2385.7166.4836.4817.7857.7967.877

Other Europe30.26127.75223.16528.81132.65934.05836.90637.01140.09740.56042.40738.36936.88039.287

Kazakhstan2.9952.3972.6372.1052.2272.7813.4902.7572.6842.3152.6302.5572.6872.787

Russia40.37935.46724.82836.74541.49042.79343.31043.14639.82438.74940.86141.16641.57842.201

Ukraine8.0526.6993.9225.4806.3326.1485.5694.2323.3094.2484.4554.6484.7874.883

Rest of CIS5.5976.1975.7135.8786.0757.3497.7987.5566.5965.7436.3547.8147.9248.057

CIS57.02250.76037.10150.20856.12559.07260.16757.69152.41351.05554.30056.18556.97657.928

Canada15.51114.6759.53114.09014.17115.57514.80015.77513.34415.04516.60517.33017.25217.839

Mexico17.10617.73715.17517.76019.80420.91120.57423.47224.88125.48726.45725.41725.82426.056

United States108.28598.40959.20679.89789.20096.20095.700106.95796.13191.86197.722100.153101.423101.695

NAFTA140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204134.355132.393140.783142.900144.499145.590

Argentina4.6174.7863.2034.6205.3384.8995.0655.0095.2544.2064.9204.8264.5254.987

Brazil22.06024.04818.57626.66926.09426.57328.01825.60621.29118.21719.56921.07722.04923.286

Chile2.3102.5681.7052.3822.7383.0082.7012.6372.7972.7602.7592.7413.1013.361

Colombia2.7602.5582.2332.7993.2183.5063.4883.9544.0323.6603.5503.3963.7043.841

Peru1.5432.1491.5852.4212.4222.6762.7662.9003.4923.2663.6593.7833.8504.085

Venezuela3.6473.4002.6842.2662.6062.9902.8722.0381.8440.7350.5110.1720.1220.122

Rest of C & S America5.6865.8304.3044.7754.9645.4036.7747.1137.3637.1017.1897.3517.5438.598

Central & South America42.62245.33934.29045.93247.38149.05551.68449.25846.07339.94542.15743.34544.89448.280

Algeria2.9093.6974.2773.0633.7874.6445.6416.1735.9905.6885.8135.4285.5825.722

Egypt5.5107.46011.0549.3327.7809.4689.20710.18210.86211.68310.17811.06711.62012.085

Morocco1.4201.8761.7271.6332.7992.6002.7732.5352.7002.8593.0312.9773.0363.097

South Africa5.8076.1264.4565.0015.3325.2665.6895.1175.2944.9704.7394.6664.6804.780

Rest of Africa7.1749.04810.38212.2009.75110.95513.11313.38913.83812.41111.22812.81713.14913.515

Africa22.82028.20731.89631.22929.44932.93336.42337.39638.68437.61134.98936.95538.06839.199

Iran18.30915.04517.54619.69021.12018.97319.79819.88019.72019.10519.95719.55818.49018.632

Saudi Arabia8.4189.61310.00610.72012.00012.54013.30014.10013.50012.20011.8349.0009.0909.272

United Arab Emirates7.71212.0926.2416.6286.8337.0446.8207.1497.1367.8337.9318.0397.6447.549

Rest of the Middle East9.18610.74312.22411.62211.30112.18212.79613.38513.46113.94613.58313.54513.63714.010

Middle East43.62547.49346.01748.66051.25450.73952.71454.51453.81753.08453.30550.14148.86049.463

681.020773.840834.960843.310834.877

China418.426446.861551.443587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020773.840834.960843.310834.877

India51.48251.43857.89264.94069.78872.38373.65276.05080.19883.64388.68096.006102.819110.212

Indonesia7.2458.8237.4208.95010.95212.50012.69212.89811.37512.67313.59314.72215.54616.370

Japan81.18077.95052.79063.57064.10063.95065.24067.69062.95062.17064.38065.38064.70064.200

Malaysia7.6948.4916.6458.3148.2388.92210.04910.07910.00010.2569.4439.6799.87310.070

Philippines3.3973.5553.4343.9995.1086.0086.7057.3258.7609.6779.81910.53611.31512.062

Singapore2.9003.3962.8042.6803.8973.8264.2763.8334.0162.8322.7202.9033.0003.000

South Korea55.20358.57245.41452.39056.39154.06951.76255.52155.80057.07656.31453.57953.39054.100

Taiwan, China18.08016.91011.28017.79018.09617.77718.57119.55817.52718.27717.67217.85318.18818.525

Thailand12.71813.46610.75014.08514.51816.38017.82917.66716.68619.19216.49517.31018.31419.193

Vietnam9.3168.18410.92210.5729.69810.95611.76914.44118.25422.32821.63722.31223.71825.378

Rest of Asia8.6727.2028.1359.32511.89611.72612.43415.45819.65420.91920.70722.31023.64225.074

Asia676.313704.846768.930844.196913.903938.6021,026.4251,011.287977.5601,000.0631,095.2991,167.5491,187.8151,193.061

Australia7.3377.4265.3416.9666.0246.4585.7576.4496.2915.8495.4415.9045.7315.509

New Zealand0.9300.9000.5600.7350.7000.7370.7690.8430.8080.7560.7880.7570.7690.749

Other Oceania0.1670.2630.2270.2890.6050.5350.3010.2880.3250.3430.3260.3020.2950.284

Oceania8.4348.5896.1297.9907.3297.7306.8277.5807.4246.9486.5556.9646.7956.541

Asia & Oceania684.748713.435775.059852.186921.232946.3321,033.2531,018.868984.9841,007.0111,101.8541,174.5131,194.6101,199.603

3.0002.0001.000-1.000

World1,225.0481,230.3601,152.6891,315.4361,418.2681,445.5571,544.6011,549.8961,504.8931,519.5281,632.4911,712.1291,734.9611,751.560

World excl. China806.622783.499601.246727.855777.045785.452803.155839.128832.553838.508858.651877.169891.651916.683

BRIC532.346557.814652.739715.935778.595801.855886.426855.570813.653821.629922.950993.2091,009.7551,010.576

MENA54.36961.45964.49463.56264.72167.27170.45173.49872.94772.56771.73868.64568.24169.514

Developed Economies473.768446.569298.051372.353395.287386.893387.074410.843396.490394.625406.853414.009415.171418.078

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)751.280783.791854.638943.0831,022.9821,058.6651,157.5271,139.0531,108.4031,124.9031,225.6391,298.1201,319.7901,333.482

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China332.854336.930303.195355.502381.759398.560416.081428.285436.063443.883451.799463.160476.480498.606

World excl. BRIC692.701672.546499.950599.501639.673643.703658.175694.326691.240697.898709.542718.920725.206740.984

Developing Asia516.438546.174655.055705.969769.662797.124884.303862.139833.742857.390952.0251,025.5441,046.1981,050.830

Developing Asia excl. China98.01399.313103.612118.388128.439137.019142.857151.371161.402176.370178.185190.584202.888215.954

ASEAN (5)40.37042.51839.17245.92048.51354.76659.04462.41065.07674.12670.98774.55978.76783.074

Developed Asia159.875158.673113.875138.227144.241141.478142.122149.148143.819142.673143.274142.005141.617142.231

Northern Europe99.12794.09062.71577.35384.78978.93578.84381.21081.83684.26586.72887.27186.82987.536

Southern Europe68.00958.20736.80443.14643.33234.99536.34036.93440.55440.09741.58444.87645.52446.120

Middle East excl. Iran25.31632.44828.47128.97030.13431.76632.91634.63434.09733.97933.34830.58430.37130.831

MENA excl. Iran36.06046.41446.94843.87243.60148.29850.65353.61853.22753.46251.78149.08749.75150.882

GCC18.92925.74419.45420.83421.93723.05124.08925.72225.30924.62924.30821.07220.82721.023

Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa4.8946.6587.3949.5648.6198.95810.56410.68211.3339.8958.71110.34610.65710.977

World excl. China and EU603.574596.946479.997581.191620.053644.770660.775690.174678.083680.638695.956707.447721.477744.473

European Union (13)35.91234.25621.73026.16528.87126.75327.19630.81032.08033.50834.38437.57437.82138.554

The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)6.6137.2755.5237.6028.3799.1908.9559.49110.3219.6869.9689.92010.65511.287

Mercosur30.53432.43424.70533.91934.49434.92736.41433.11928.85723.66225.50026.72127.36129.166

North Africa12.11815.42320.04616.66415.49818.70920.17021.59722.05722.74621.53921.94222.73123.442

Sub-Saharan Africa10.70112.78411.85014.56513.95114.22416.25315.79916.62714.86513.45015.01315.33715.757

presentation

Mt%

20182019202018/1719/1820/19

World1,712.11,735.01,751.64.9/ 2.1*1.31.0

China835.0843.3834.97.9/ 2.0*1.0-1.0

RoW877.2891.7916.72.21.72.8

Developed414.0415.2418.11.80.30.7

Emerging & Developing463.2476.5498.62.52.94.6

Development in China Deceleration of GDP/investment continues; lowest GDP growth since 1992 US-China trade tension adds further pressure to the economy, hitting business

sentiment and manufacturing Contraction of auto production deepens in 2019 Real estate sector contributes to strong demand growth in 2019 due to relaxed

controls in tier 2~4 cities In 2020, steel demand to decelerate with no stimulus on real estate, while

targeted stimuli on infrastructure and consumption to provide some buffer

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-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jan-

11 Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-

12 Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-

13 Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-

14 Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-

15 Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-

16 Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-

17 Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-

18 Apr

Jul

Oct

Jan-

19 Apr

Jul

Under construction, New Starts and Sales

Under construction New starts Sales

Source: NBS

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

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2013

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2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

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2016

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2016

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2017

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2019

Q1

2019

Q2

GDP & FAI Growth

GDP (LHS)

FAI (RHS)

6

Source: NBS

Developments in key regions (1/4) Asia India (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: 7.1% & 7.2%)

India’s steel demand in 2019 did not meet the expectation as the economy decelerated sharply due to uncertainty during the general election, liquidity crisis. Capital goods, real estate, auto sectors slumped. Post-election improvement in sentiment and infrastructure investment is expected to pull up steel demand growth to a higher level in 2020. Private investment is expected to remain weak.

ASEAN 5 (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: 5.6% & 5.5%)Steel demand growth momentum in ASEAN 5 countries weakened slightly due to weakness in Thailand, but higher growth is expected in 2020 driven by infrastructure investments. The region is benefitting from trade diversion following the US-China trade conflict.

Japan (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: -1.0% & -0.8%)While public projects provide some supports to steel demand, steel demand is expected to contract slightly reflecting deteriorating global economic environment.

Korea (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: -0.4% & 1.3%)Domestically, weak construction and investment, high household debts are constraining steel demand. Deteriorating export market further adds pressure to the manufacturing sector, despite some recovery in shipbuilding.

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Developments in key regions (2/4) EU (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: 0.3% & 1.2%) Uncertainty and slowing trade is taking a heavy toll on the EU economy with sharply

weakening confidence and manufacturing, despite so far resilient domestic demand. German manufacturing is in deep recession as result of slowing exports and Brexit uncertainty. The German auto industry is particularly severely hit. Spill over to the consumer sector and other EU economies further raises recession risk in EU.

NAFTA US (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: 1.3% & 0.3%)

The US economy is decelerating as the effect of fiscal stimulus fades and trade related uncertainty affects confidence and manufacturing. Hence, steel demand will see deceleration with weak capital goods sector and moderating construction. Recent monetary easing and announced fiscal stimulus could cushion deceleration in 2020. Mexico (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: 1.6% & 0.9%)

The Mexican steel demand will contract in 2019 affected by policy uncertainty, cancellation of oil projects and fiscal budget constraint. Industrial activities fared better than the contracting construction sector thanks to exports, in particular the auto industry and appliances. Despite weak economy, confidence is improving under the new government and 2020 will see some recovery in steel demand.

8

Developments in key regions (3/4)

South America The region’s recovery saw a setback in 2019 as external environment worsened and

Argentina and Venezuela show large contractions. While a recovery is penciled in for 2020, policy uncertainties loom large downside risk is high.

Brazil (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: 4.6% & 5.6%)

Recovery in 2019 disappoints due to policy uncertainty and worsening trade environment. But GDP managed to stay in the positive zone, even though industrial activities were sluggish. Construction finally started to show signs of recovery. 2020 will see a more positive development with a breakthrough in pension reform and other reform policies leading to rising confidences.

CIS and Other Europe Russia (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: 0.7% & 1.0%)

Steady and slow recovery in steel demand continues, with relatively stable macroeconomic conditions.

Turkey (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: -4.9% & 8%)

Currency crisis of August 2018 led to a large contraction in steel demand in 2019. Macroeconomic indicators are stabilizing and a mild recovery is foreseen in 2020.

9

Developments in key regions (4/4) MENA

GCC (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: -1.2% & 0.9%)

Scaling down of construction activities, finalization of Expo related projects led to contraction of steel demand in UAE and hence GCC. Subdued outlook continues for 2020.

North Africa (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: 3.6% & 3.1%)

The North African economy continues to grow fast but steel demand will contract in 2019 due to completion of construction projects in Egypt. Reforms and infrastructure will continue to drive steel demand in the region.

Iran (April 2019 SRO for 2019&20: -5.5% & 0.8%)

Reinstatement of US sanctions weakens the economy and hence contraction of steel demand. Outlook for 2020 is uncertain under the current environment.

10

Revisions from April 2019 forecasts(SRO April 2019 vs October 2019)

Mt % Mt ∆ growth rate ∆

2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020

World 1 735.0 1 751.6 1.3 1.0EU (28) 170.2 172.2 0.3 1.2Other Europe 36.9 39.3 -3.9 6.5CIS 57.0 57.9 1.4 1.7NAFTA 144.5 145.6 1.1 0.8C&S America 44.9 48.3 3.6 7.5Africa 38.1 39.2 3.0 3.0Middle East 48.9 49.5 -2.6 1.2Asia & Oceania 1 194.6 1 199.6 1.7 0.4

China 843.3 834.9 1.0 -1.0Developing Asia excl. China

202.9 216.0 6.5 6.4

Developed Asia 141.6 142.2 -0.3 0.4

SRO April 2018 SRO October 2019

11

*- Series based on Chinese steel using sectors dynamics

*

*

db

201520162017201820192020

Austria3.9113.8364.0954.1504.2334.253

Belgium-Luxembourg4.3294.3864.5574.6394.7094.756

Czech Republic6.6156.6956.9007.4707.6007.800

Finland1.7091.7061.7781.8671.9151.992

France13.23213.02414.12614.08213.83213.603

Germany39.26540.45440.98040.77540.40440.981

Hungary2.3432.5382.6492.7882.8522.918

Italy24.48823.73325.09126.38426.66026.975

Netherlands3.4964.0223.9814.6504.6644.727

Poland12.57913.14813.60114.89514.76015.000

Slovak Republic2.2262.2542.4402.5132.6012.679

Slovenia1.0081.0561.1281.2601.3501.400

Spain12.70712.57612.69314.31514.68014.920

Sweden3.3743.8734.1264.0843.9213.882

United Kingdom10.49410.85510.93810.80810.93111.102

Rest of EU (28)12.69313.71213.61215.04215.06315.224

European Union (28)154.470157.870162.696169.721170.175172.211

European Union (15)122.390124.361128.312132.147132.353133.657

Turkey34.38134.07735.92630.58429.08431.411

Rest of Other Europe5.7166.4836.4817.7857.7967.877

Other Europe40.09740.56042.40738.36936.88039.287

Kazakhstan2.6842.3152.6302.5572.6872.787

Russia39.82438.74940.86141.16641.57842.201

Ukraine3.3094.2484.4554.6484.7874.883

Rest of CIS6.5965.7436.3547.8147.9248.057

CIS52.41351.05554.30056.18556.97657.928

Canada13.34415.04516.60517.33017.25217.839

Mexico24.88125.48726.45725.41725.82426.056

United States96.13191.86197.722100.153101.423101.695

NAFTA134.355132.393140.783142.900144.499145.590

Argentina5.2544.2064.9204.8264.5254.987

Brazil21.29118.21719.56921.07722.04923.286

Chile2.7972.7602.7592.7413.1013.361

Colombia4.0323.6603.5503.3963.7043.841

Peru3.4923.2663.6593.7833.8504.085

Venezuela1.8440.7350.5110.1720.1220.122

Rest of C & S America7.3637.1017.1897.3517.5438.598

Central & South America46.07339.94542.15743.34544.89448.280

Algeria5.9905.6885.8135.4285.5825.722

Egypt10.86211.68310.17811.06711.62012.085

Morocco2.7002.8593.0312.9773.0363.097

South Africa5.2944.9704.7394.6664.6804.780

Rest of Africa13.83812.41111.22812.81713.14913.515

Africa38.68437.61134.98936.95538.06839.199

Iran19.72019.10519.95719.55818.49018.632

Saudi Arabia13.50012.20011.8349.0009.0909.272

United Arab Emirates7.1367.8337.9318.0397.6447.549

Rest of the Middle East13.46113.94613.58313.54513.63714.010

Middle East53.81753.08453.30550.14148.86049.463

681.020773.840834.960843.310834.877

China672.340681.020773.840834.960843.310834.877

India80.19883.64388.68096.006102.819110.212

Indonesia11.37512.67313.59314.72215.54616.370

Japan62.95062.17064.38065.38064.70064.200

Malaysia10.00010.2569.4439.6799.87310.070

Philippines8.7609.6779.81910.53611.31512.062

Singapore4.0162.8322.7202.9033.0003.000

South Korea55.80057.07656.31453.57953.39054.100

Taiwan, China17.52718.27717.67217.85318.18818.525

Thailand16.68619.19216.49517.31018.31419.193

Vietnam18.25422.32821.63722.31223.71825.378

Rest of Asia19.65420.91920.70722.31023.64225.074

Asia977.5601,000.0631,095.2991,167.5491,187.8151,193.061

Australia6.2915.8495.4415.9045.7315.509

New Zealand0.8080.7560.7880.7570.7690.749

Other Oceania0.3250.3430.3260.3020.2950.284

Oceania7.4246.9486.5556.9646.7956.541

Asia & Oceania984.9841,007.0111,101.8541,174.5131,194.6101,199.603

3.0002.0001.000-1.000

World1,504.8931,519.5281,632.4911,712.1291,734.9611,751.560

World excl. China832.553838.508858.651877.169891.651916.683

BRIC813.653821.629922.950993.2091,009.7551,010.576

MENA72.94772.56771.73868.64568.24169.514

Developed Economies396.490394.625406.853414.009415.171418.078

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)1,108.4031,124.9031,225.6391,298.1201,319.7901,333.482

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China436.063443.883451.799463.160476.480498.606

World excl. BRIC691.240697.898709.542718.920725.206740.984

Developing Asia833.742857.390952.0251,025.5441,046.1981,050.830

Developing Asia excl. China161.402176.370178.185190.584202.888215.954

ASEAN (5)65.07674.12670.98774.55978.76783.074

Developed Asia143.819142.673143.274142.005141.617142.231

Northern Europe81.83684.26586.72887.27186.82987.536

Southern Europe40.55440.09741.58444.87645.52446.120

Middle East excl. Iran34.09733.97933.34830.58430.37130.831

MENA excl. Iran53.22753.46251.78149.08749.75150.882

GCC25.30924.62924.30821.07220.82721.023

Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa11.3339.8958.71110.34610.65710.977

World excl. China and EU678.083680.638695.956707.447721.477744.473

European Union (13)32.08033.50834.38437.57437.82138.554

The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)10.3219.6869.9689.92010.65511.287

Mercosur28.85723.66225.50026.72127.36129.166

North Africa22.05722.74621.53921.94222.73123.442

Sub-Saharan Africa16.62714.86513.45015.01315.33715.757

presentation

Mt%Mt ∆growth rate ∆accel.

2019202020192020201920202019202020/19

SRO April 2018SRO October 2019

World1,735.01,751.6!1.31.0

EU (28)170.2172.20.31.2

Other Europe36.939.3-3.96.5

CIS57.057.91.41.7

NAFTA144.5145.61.10.8

C&S America44.948.33.67.5

Africa38.139.23.03.0

Middle East48.949.5-2.61.2

Asia & Oceania1,194.61,199.61.70.4

China843.3834.91.0-1.0

Developing Asia excl. China202.9216.06.56.4

Developed Asia141.6142.2-0.30.4

Significant down side risks, politically driven

12

No deal BrexitProbability

Global impact

HighLow

Global Trade war

China deceleration

Oil supply shock

Post- election reform of developing countries

US-China trade tensions

High

Low

EM Financial crisis

China Stimulus

Stimulus inDev’ed Economies

Position April 2019

Upside Risk

Downside Risk

Long term steel demand outlook

Worldsteel view

Steel demand growth will stay on a low growth gear

Substantial demand increase is expected only in India and ASEAN (but this is also where steel capacities are growing rapidly)

Globally, current installed capacities are sufficient to meet steel demand till 2035

Steel demand, Mt 2017 2020 2025 2035

Global steel demand (finished steel) 1 632 1 751 1 828 1 974

Source: worldsteel, SRO & MTF April 2019

13

Conclusion

Very low visibility in the global economy with uncertainty hitting confidence and investment

China’s steel demand will decelerate in 2020, barring extensive stimulus

Outlook in the rest of the world is mixed loaded with uncertainty; India and ASEAN will remain the bright spot

Significant downside risks, mostly politically driven

Upside potential: government stimulus, resolution of geopolitical conflicts, orderly BREXIT

Disruptions to the existing global value chains due to trade tensions will have lasting impact

Mounting challenges for the longer term outlook as well

14

Thank you for your attention.

15

For further information contact:

Dr Nae Hee Han | Director, Economic Studies and StatisticsWorld Steel Associationhan@worldsteel.org | T: +32 (0)2 702 8913 | worldsteel.org

worldsteel.org

Global Steel Demand OutlookDisclaimer textKey observations:�Steel demand remains resilient in the challenging environmentShort Term Steel Demand Outlook�(Finished steel, SRO April 2019)�Regional steel demand outlook 2019-2020�SRO April 2019�Development in ChinaDevelopments in key regions (1/4)Developments in key regions (2/4)Developments in key regions (3/4)Developments in key regions (4/4)Slide Number 11Significant down side risks, politically drivenLong term steel demand outlookConclusionSlide Number 15Slide Number 16