Technology Transfer Center Technology and Future Trends to Wealth Creation Ken Dozier NASA Far West...

Technology Transfer Centerhttp://www.usc.edu/go/TTC/NASA

Technology and Future Trends to Wealth Creation

Ken Dozier

NASA Far West RTTC

1/28/2004


Organization History

• 1967 NIAC Started

• 1976 Subsidized Information Searches

• 1982 Information Services Expanded, RISS Launched

• 1984 Affiliate Network Starts

• 1991 Affiliate Network Expands

• 1992 USC Selected as RTTC

• 1994 Wins TRP Award

• 1997 ETTC Formed

Far West

Mid - Continent

Southeast

Mid-West Northeast

Mid-Atlantic

Since 1958, as part of its founding goals, NASA has played a key role in technology transfer between the government and commercial sector.


Info-Tech

Nano-Tech

Bio-Tech

Interdisciplinary opportunities

Copyright SRI International 2002


“When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight”

Jack Welch, Chairmen General Electric

The Future


What is Knowledge ?

Truth Knowledge Belief

Universal

No Debate

Effect

Social

Converge on debate

Cause

Personal

Diverge on debate

Cause

10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)


“Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all future scientific advances”Lee De Forest, Radio Pioneer, 1957

The Future

“where ... The ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computer in the the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons” - Popular Mechanics, 1949

“I predict the internet... Will go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse ” - Bob Metcalfe, 3COM founder and inventor, 1995

“This ‘Telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”

- Western Union, Internal memo, 1876

“The problem with television is that the people must sit and keep their eyes glued on a screen; The average American family hasn’t time for it” - New York Times, 1949

“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home”- Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977

Source: “The Future is Ours” Communication of the ACM, March 2001


Source: The 2003 World Competitiveness Yearbook IMD International

3. Canada

4. Malaysia

5. Germany

6. Taiwan

7. United Kingdom

8. France

9. Mexico

10.Thailand

Global Competition1.

2.


DevelopersDrivers

Gates “Microsoft” XeroxJobs “Apple” XeroxClark “SGI” E&S, StanfordClark “Netscape” University of

Illinois

The Non-Linear


1st Perspective

• Knowledge is a New Kind of Asset– The foundation of industrialized economy is shifting from natural

resources to intellectual assets (Hansen 99) (Davis 98)

– Knowledge assets are viewed as factors of production that may be more important than traditional resources of capital, labor and land. (Davis 98)

– Converging technologies and rapid innovations can transform markets Overnight . Administrative systems no longer provide the underpinnings of value creation. (Teece 98)

– Reward goes to those who are good a sensing and seizing opportunities. Dynamic capabilities are most likely to be resident in firms that are highly entrepreneurial. (Teece 98)


2nd Perspective• Entrepreneurship Super Normal Wealth Creator

– Business Environments Have Become Hypercompetitive because of the High Magnitude and Velocity of Interfirm Rivalries (D’Aveni, 94)

– Innovations in Products, Services, Business Processes, and Organizational Designs are Creating Dramatic Discontinuities in Product- Market Spaces and Disrupting the Traditional Approaches to Competitive Strategies and Business Conduct (Christensen, 97)

– In the Short Run, Entrepreneurial Firms Reaps Supernormal Returns (Create Wealth) as Established Incumbents and Rivals Seek to Understand the Competitive Disruptions in their Market Space.(Christensen 97)

– Thus Competition Occurs in the Form of a Series of Market Disruption Moves by New Entrants or Entrepreneurial Firms and Efforts by Incumbents and Rivals to Shape Their Response Actions (Young et al 96)


Typical Waterfall modelSix Stages

basic research, development research, product and process ideas, prototype, production, diffusion

CriticismsToo much focus on the solution “push” basic research not the only initiator stagerelationship between research and commercialization is too complex to be linearUsers are the key “pull” to the problems and markets

Traditional Entrepreneurship

Sung


2001 study of startup companies across: Software telecom (35%), Bio-med (19%), Computers (16%), and Semi-conductors (10.8%) Most innovation at application stage (55%), development ( 22%), research (12%) production (9%)Age: Linear older ( 35-45), non linear (25-35)Education: Linear more (28%P,42%M,30%B), Non Linear (7.5%P, 22%M,67%B)Experience: Linear narrower (59% research, 35% commerce), Nonlinear (37% research, 29% commerce, 17% education)Both groups agreed on success factors: business plan, leadership, technical skills, management skills, and location

New Non-Linear Model


3rd Perspective• Entrepreneurial Firms Represent a New Online Community• Network computing, supported by advanced communications infrastructure, can

facilitate collaborative entrepreneuralism (Teece 98)• Successful business models set themselves apart in their communication design

leading to a deconstruction of traditional value chains and the emergence of value Webs. (Lechner 01)

• The most critical factor for a venture business success is how to implement and commercialize lab-based technology/knowledge/ideas into actual products and/or services (Sung 01)

• Entrepreneurial firms use knowledge to reshape clusters of assets in distinctive and unique combinations to serve ever changing customer needs. (Teece 98)

• The key sources of wealth creation at the dawn of the new millennium will lie with new enterprise formation. (Teece 98)


Incubators and Science Parks created to bridge gap between development and commercialization

Chart Source: Corporate Information Systems, Applegate

Venture: Niche markets,

public trading (pull)

Federal Agencies, SBIR: Mission Based, Linear (push) Universities: Curiosity Based, emerging, (push)

Chabol (large companies) hierarchy, products based, (push)

Make & Sell vs. Sense & Respond


Moore’s Law



0 2

9 28

Exponential Value of InterconnectionsPossibility for creating N(2(N-1)-1) value




Exponential EconomyAn increasing attribute of our knowledge age


Business Taxonomy

• Knowledge Taxonomies (Teece 98)

– Tacit (Social) / Codified (Explicit)

– Observable[product] / Not Observable[process]

– Positive (Failures)/ Negative (Successes)

– Autonomous (Stand Alone)/ Systematic (Part of a System)

– Protected (Patent, TM, CW) /Not Protected (Trade Secret)


Industry Clusters

– “Industry Cluster”: collections of competing and collaborating industries in a region networked into horizontal and vertical relationships, involving strong common buyer-supplier linkages, and relying on a shared foundation of specialized economic institutions. Because they are built around export-oriented firms, industry clusters bring new wealth into a region an help drive the regions economic growth.

Industry Cluster Electronic

Key Export Oriented Firms

Key Supplier Oriented Firms

Key Economic Infrastructure Providers

Consumer Electronic Assembly

Computer Hardware Assembly

Tool, Die & Machinery

Office & Production Supply

Specialized Component Supply

Education & Training Institutions

Physical Infrastructure Providers

Financial and Regulatory Institutions

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)

B01-039


Industry Clusters

(ERI/McGraw Hill,”America’s Clusters”,1995)


California Council on Science and Technology 2004


Nanotechnology Timeline

California Council on Science and Technology 2004


Cinema Master Workflow

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