Technology Societyand

The Next Transformation

Jonathan MurrayWW Technology Officer Public Sector

Microsoft

httpwwwtechnologypolicyblogcom

Services The ldquoSinkholerdquo of the economy

Baumol W J 1967

ldquoMacroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth The Anatomy of Urban Crisesrdquo American Economic Review 57no 3 (June 1967)

From Manufacturing to ServicesA Nuts and Bolts History

Maudsley

Screw

Lathe

Robertson

amp Phillips

Screws

Automated

Fastening

Systems

Inte

llectu

al C

on

ten

t

Screws

Used in

Europe

Craft

Automation

Systems

Services

Services The ldquoSinkholerdquo of the economy

Baumol W J 1967

ldquoMacroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth The Anatomy of Urban Crisesrdquo American Economic Review 57no 3 (June 1967)

From Manufacturing to ServicesA Nuts and Bolts History

Maudsley

Screw

Lathe

Robertson

amp Phillips

Screws

Automated

Fastening

Systems

Inte

llectu

al C

on

ten

t

Screws

Used in

Europe

Craft

Automation

Systems

Services

From Manufacturing to ServicesA Nuts and Bolts History

Maudsley

Screw

Lathe

Robertson

amp Phillips

Screws

Automated

Fastening

Systems

Inte

llectu

al C

on

ten

t

Screws

Used in

Europe

Craft

Automation

Systems

Services

Why was Baumol wrong

Baumol W J 1967

ldquoMacroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth The Anatomy of Urban Crisesrdquo American Economic Review 57no 3 (June 1967)

Moore G E 1965

ldquoCramming more components onto integrated circuitsrdquo Electronics Volume 38 Number 8 April 19 1965

Moorersquos Law Transforming the Services Economy

Marginal Cost

Kn

ow

led

ge

Co

nte

nt

Computable

ServicesIr

red

ucib

le S

erv

ices

Information Technology Transforming the Economy

The economy of things has become the economy of ideas

The major driver of productivityimprovement in last ten years

Created entirely new and novelservice sectors

Services not manufacturing has become the driver of economic value creation

Has created three digital divides

Manual

Production

Automated

Production

Process

Integration

Service

Abstraction

The Three Digital Divides

Between sections of society based on income and education

Between companies based on strategy execution and talent

Between countries based on nationalwealth and talent

Prediction Horizons

3-5 Years

Highly predictable

Products already in development

5-10 Years

Relatively Predictable

Basic technologies identified

10-15 Years

Non-predictable

New basic technologies will disrupt

Trends are the only guide

The Next 10 Years Riding the wavehellip

The TransformativePower of Technology

Technologies enable the capture distribution and repeatable application of value creating knowledge

ConnectionGenerates

economies of scale

The ability to create

network effects

AbstractionEnables generalists

to replace specialists

The ability to hide complexity

EncodingConverts

Tacit amp Implicit into Explicit Knowledge

The ability to formalize

knowledge

A 10 Year ViewAn Algorithmic Transformation

Automation of the routine

Systems Embedding of specialized knowledge and processes

Massive expansion of networkedservice value chains

Value creation moves from specialized to generalized skills

UnlimitedComputation

UnlimitedStorage

UnlimitedBandwidth

Prof John Zysman BRIE ndash UC Berkeley

ldquoAny sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magicrdquo

Arthur C Clark

Profiles of The Future 1961

(Clarkes third law)

The Politics of Magic

Will social acceptance issues limit our ability to tap technologyrsquos full potential

How will concepts of liability and personal responsibility evolve

What about privacy security identity Will consumers continue to trade privacy for a free lunch

What skills will be required to be fully economically productive

How will societies develop retain attract and enablethe talent required

Can the developing world catch up or does technology merely amplify the developed worldrsquos existing advantages

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

Moorersquos Law Transforming the Services Economy

Marginal Cost

Kn

ow

led

ge

Co

nte

nt

Computable

ServicesIr

red

ucib

le S

erv

ices

Information Technology Transforming the Economy

The economy of things has become the economy of ideas

The major driver of productivityimprovement in last ten years

Created entirely new and novelservice sectors

Services not manufacturing has become the driver of economic value creation

Has created three digital divides

Manual

Production

Automated

Production

Process

Integration

Service

Abstraction

The Three Digital Divides

Between sections of society based on income and education

Between companies based on strategy execution and talent

Between countries based on nationalwealth and talent

Prediction Horizons

3-5 Years

Highly predictable

Products already in development

5-10 Years

Relatively Predictable

Basic technologies identified

10-15 Years

Non-predictable

New basic technologies will disrupt

Trends are the only guide

The Next 10 Years Riding the wavehellip

The TransformativePower of Technology

Technologies enable the capture distribution and repeatable application of value creating knowledge

ConnectionGenerates

economies of scale

The ability to create

network effects

AbstractionEnables generalists

to replace specialists

The ability to hide complexity

EncodingConverts

Tacit amp Implicit into Explicit Knowledge

The ability to formalize

knowledge

A 10 Year ViewAn Algorithmic Transformation

Automation of the routine

Systems Embedding of specialized knowledge and processes

Massive expansion of networkedservice value chains

Value creation moves from specialized to generalized skills

UnlimitedComputation

UnlimitedStorage

UnlimitedBandwidth

Prof John Zysman BRIE ndash UC Berkeley

ldquoAny sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magicrdquo

Arthur C Clark

Profiles of The Future 1961

(Clarkes third law)

The Politics of Magic

Will social acceptance issues limit our ability to tap technologyrsquos full potential

How will concepts of liability and personal responsibility evolve

What about privacy security identity Will consumers continue to trade privacy for a free lunch

What skills will be required to be fully economically productive

How will societies develop retain attract and enablethe talent required

Can the developing world catch up or does technology merely amplify the developed worldrsquos existing advantages

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

Information Technology Transforming the Economy

The economy of things has become the economy of ideas

The major driver of productivityimprovement in last ten years

Created entirely new and novelservice sectors

Services not manufacturing has become the driver of economic value creation

Has created three digital divides

Manual

Production

Automated

Production

Process

Integration

Service

Abstraction

The Three Digital Divides

Between sections of society based on income and education

Between companies based on strategy execution and talent

Between countries based on nationalwealth and talent

Prediction Horizons

3-5 Years

Highly predictable

Products already in development

5-10 Years

Relatively Predictable

Basic technologies identified

10-15 Years

Non-predictable

New basic technologies will disrupt

Trends are the only guide

The Next 10 Years Riding the wavehellip

The TransformativePower of Technology

Technologies enable the capture distribution and repeatable application of value creating knowledge

ConnectionGenerates

economies of scale

The ability to create

network effects

AbstractionEnables generalists

to replace specialists

The ability to hide complexity

EncodingConverts

Tacit amp Implicit into Explicit Knowledge

The ability to formalize

knowledge

A 10 Year ViewAn Algorithmic Transformation

Automation of the routine

Systems Embedding of specialized knowledge and processes

Massive expansion of networkedservice value chains

Value creation moves from specialized to generalized skills

UnlimitedComputation

UnlimitedStorage

UnlimitedBandwidth

Prof John Zysman BRIE ndash UC Berkeley

ldquoAny sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magicrdquo

Arthur C Clark

Profiles of The Future 1961

(Clarkes third law)

The Politics of Magic

Will social acceptance issues limit our ability to tap technologyrsquos full potential

How will concepts of liability and personal responsibility evolve

What about privacy security identity Will consumers continue to trade privacy for a free lunch

What skills will be required to be fully economically productive

How will societies develop retain attract and enablethe talent required

Can the developing world catch up or does technology merely amplify the developed worldrsquos existing advantages

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

The Three Digital Divides

Between sections of society based on income and education

Between companies based on strategy execution and talent

Between countries based on nationalwealth and talent

Prediction Horizons

3-5 Years

Highly predictable

Products already in development

5-10 Years

Relatively Predictable

Basic technologies identified

10-15 Years

Non-predictable

New basic technologies will disrupt

Trends are the only guide

The Next 10 Years Riding the wavehellip

The TransformativePower of Technology

Technologies enable the capture distribution and repeatable application of value creating knowledge

ConnectionGenerates

economies of scale

The ability to create

network effects

AbstractionEnables generalists

to replace specialists

The ability to hide complexity

EncodingConverts

Tacit amp Implicit into Explicit Knowledge

The ability to formalize

knowledge

A 10 Year ViewAn Algorithmic Transformation

Automation of the routine

Systems Embedding of specialized knowledge and processes

Massive expansion of networkedservice value chains

Value creation moves from specialized to generalized skills

UnlimitedComputation

UnlimitedStorage

UnlimitedBandwidth

Prof John Zysman BRIE ndash UC Berkeley

ldquoAny sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magicrdquo

Arthur C Clark

Profiles of The Future 1961

(Clarkes third law)

The Politics of Magic

Will social acceptance issues limit our ability to tap technologyrsquos full potential

How will concepts of liability and personal responsibility evolve

What about privacy security identity Will consumers continue to trade privacy for a free lunch

What skills will be required to be fully economically productive

How will societies develop retain attract and enablethe talent required

Can the developing world catch up or does technology merely amplify the developed worldrsquos existing advantages

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

Prediction Horizons

3-5 Years

Highly predictable

Products already in development

5-10 Years

Relatively Predictable

Basic technologies identified

10-15 Years

Non-predictable

New basic technologies will disrupt

Trends are the only guide

The Next 10 Years Riding the wavehellip

The TransformativePower of Technology

Technologies enable the capture distribution and repeatable application of value creating knowledge

ConnectionGenerates

economies of scale

The ability to create

network effects

AbstractionEnables generalists

to replace specialists

The ability to hide complexity

EncodingConverts

Tacit amp Implicit into Explicit Knowledge

The ability to formalize

knowledge

A 10 Year ViewAn Algorithmic Transformation

Automation of the routine

Systems Embedding of specialized knowledge and processes

Massive expansion of networkedservice value chains

Value creation moves from specialized to generalized skills

UnlimitedComputation

UnlimitedStorage

UnlimitedBandwidth

Prof John Zysman BRIE ndash UC Berkeley

ldquoAny sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magicrdquo

Arthur C Clark

Profiles of The Future 1961

(Clarkes third law)

The Politics of Magic

Will social acceptance issues limit our ability to tap technologyrsquos full potential

How will concepts of liability and personal responsibility evolve

What about privacy security identity Will consumers continue to trade privacy for a free lunch

What skills will be required to be fully economically productive

How will societies develop retain attract and enablethe talent required

Can the developing world catch up or does technology merely amplify the developed worldrsquos existing advantages

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

The Next 10 Years Riding the wavehellip

The TransformativePower of Technology

Technologies enable the capture distribution and repeatable application of value creating knowledge

ConnectionGenerates

economies of scale

The ability to create

network effects

AbstractionEnables generalists

to replace specialists

The ability to hide complexity

EncodingConverts

Tacit amp Implicit into Explicit Knowledge

The ability to formalize

knowledge

A 10 Year ViewAn Algorithmic Transformation

Automation of the routine

Systems Embedding of specialized knowledge and processes

Massive expansion of networkedservice value chains

Value creation moves from specialized to generalized skills

UnlimitedComputation

UnlimitedStorage

UnlimitedBandwidth

Prof John Zysman BRIE ndash UC Berkeley

ldquoAny sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magicrdquo

Arthur C Clark

Profiles of The Future 1961

(Clarkes third law)

The Politics of Magic

Will social acceptance issues limit our ability to tap technologyrsquos full potential

How will concepts of liability and personal responsibility evolve

What about privacy security identity Will consumers continue to trade privacy for a free lunch

What skills will be required to be fully economically productive

How will societies develop retain attract and enablethe talent required

Can the developing world catch up or does technology merely amplify the developed worldrsquos existing advantages

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

The TransformativePower of Technology

Technologies enable the capture distribution and repeatable application of value creating knowledge

ConnectionGenerates

economies of scale

The ability to create

network effects

AbstractionEnables generalists

to replace specialists

The ability to hide complexity

EncodingConverts

Tacit amp Implicit into Explicit Knowledge

The ability to formalize

knowledge

A 10 Year ViewAn Algorithmic Transformation

Automation of the routine

Systems Embedding of specialized knowledge and processes

Massive expansion of networkedservice value chains

Value creation moves from specialized to generalized skills

UnlimitedComputation

UnlimitedStorage

UnlimitedBandwidth

Prof John Zysman BRIE ndash UC Berkeley

ldquoAny sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magicrdquo

Arthur C Clark

Profiles of The Future 1961

(Clarkes third law)

The Politics of Magic

Will social acceptance issues limit our ability to tap technologyrsquos full potential

How will concepts of liability and personal responsibility evolve

What about privacy security identity Will consumers continue to trade privacy for a free lunch

What skills will be required to be fully economically productive

How will societies develop retain attract and enablethe talent required

Can the developing world catch up or does technology merely amplify the developed worldrsquos existing advantages

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

A 10 Year ViewAn Algorithmic Transformation

Automation of the routine

Systems Embedding of specialized knowledge and processes

Massive expansion of networkedservice value chains

Value creation moves from specialized to generalized skills

UnlimitedComputation

UnlimitedStorage

UnlimitedBandwidth

Prof John Zysman BRIE ndash UC Berkeley

ldquoAny sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magicrdquo

Arthur C Clark

Profiles of The Future 1961

(Clarkes third law)

The Politics of Magic

Will social acceptance issues limit our ability to tap technologyrsquos full potential

How will concepts of liability and personal responsibility evolve

What about privacy security identity Will consumers continue to trade privacy for a free lunch

What skills will be required to be fully economically productive

How will societies develop retain attract and enablethe talent required

Can the developing world catch up or does technology merely amplify the developed worldrsquos existing advantages

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

ldquoAny sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magicrdquo

Arthur C Clark

Profiles of The Future 1961

(Clarkes third law)

The Politics of Magic

Will social acceptance issues limit our ability to tap technologyrsquos full potential

How will concepts of liability and personal responsibility evolve

What about privacy security identity Will consumers continue to trade privacy for a free lunch

What skills will be required to be fully economically productive

How will societies develop retain attract and enablethe talent required

Can the developing world catch up or does technology merely amplify the developed worldrsquos existing advantages

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

The Politics of Magic

Will social acceptance issues limit our ability to tap technologyrsquos full potential

How will concepts of liability and personal responsibility evolve

What about privacy security identity Will consumers continue to trade privacy for a free lunch

What skills will be required to be fully economically productive

How will societies develop retain attract and enablethe talent required

Can the developing world catch up or does technology merely amplify the developed worldrsquos existing advantages

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

Economic Transformations Drive Demand for New Skills

Agrarian Revolution

Unskilled Literacy

Industrial Revolution

Skilled Literacy in Science and engineering

Mass Production

Specialists Process Control and Management

Services Economy Transformation

Information Workers Data Analytics and Synthesis

What is skills will be required for the

Algorithmic Transformation

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

ldquoThe illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write but those who cannot learn

unlearn and relearnrdquo

Alvin Toffler

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

Implications Education

Can the education system deliver these skills

Learning as a personal responsibility Learning how to learn

Abstract thinking Higher level math music second languages

Information Discrimination Good from Bad Truth from Fiction

Teamwork Working in ad-hoc groups

Communications Presentations skills performance arts

Deep implications for the classroom

Teachers Evolving from gatekeepers of knowledge to learning coaches

Students Using tools as an enabler of learning

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

Implications and challengesFor Nations

Access to conceptual abstract and strategic thinking talent overrides all other issues

Societies need to create retain attract and enable the global talent required for economic growth

Talent will be attracted to locations based on Quality of Lifeand access to an ldquoIntellectual Playgroundrdquo

Information technology and embedded knowledgebecome the driving force of economic development

Which business models will be disrupted and what new business models will be created

How should intellectual property regimes evolve as the economy of things becomes the economy of ideas

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

Economic Development Strategy Creating the Environment

Reinvention is often easier than new invention

Artificial attempts to create new sectors rarely succeed

Encourage existing sectors to adopt modern tools and processes to differentiate in global markets

Reward risk taking and failure

Liberalize bankruptcy law and ensure access to risk capital

Focus on grass-roots startup initiatives

Maximize cross-disciplinary interaction

Unleash the academics

Encourage entrepreneurial activities while retaining tenure

Create equitable intellectual property regimes for universities

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes

Summary

Massive increases in networked computational power will enable an ldquoAlgorithmicrdquo transformation

These new computational tools will have major implications for society business models and skills

Access to creative conceptual abstract thinking talent will drive national economic advantage andglobal competitiveness

National economic development strategies need to focus on developing retaining attracting and enabling this globally mobile talent

Policy makers need to focus on encourage existingsectors to modernize and adopt digital tools and processes